I've read various theories on getting more difficult at 7 months, I am wondering what others think to this:
1. People are more educated, so don't let points go to waste etc. Internet has driven more informed customers, points brokers etc.
2. SSR would have made a difference when it first went on sale and sold the direct contracts simply because of its huge size.
3. AKL had the same effect, as SSR.
4. I'm not convinced new resorts result in across the board more difficulty in booking at every time of year. I do think every new resort results possibly in more pressure on BWV and BCV due to their enduring popularity and relatively cheap points at all times. But aside from this 2 I'm not convinced more resorts online means it is getting harder to book elsewhere in every season. Ultimately that individual is giving up their own resort room when they booked elsewhere.
5. However, more resorts means more competition at peak DVC times so it does generally make booking at those times more difficult. This is because more new owners will gravitate towards the Oct- end of first week in Jan and other holidays.
1. Renting in high demand. Especially for Fall Frenzy. Less wasted points.
2. Demand skewed to near park resorts.
3. Demand skewed to Fall Frenzy.
4. Demand skewed to studios.
5. People buying the near park resorts specifically to book them at 11 months. Over time, casual owners that bought near park resorts because that's what was for sale when they bought are being replaced with owners on a mission to book the near park resorts for Fall Frenzy at 11 months out.
6. The 2011 restrictions taught owners that using their points for concierge collection or cruises, etc. were poor uses of points. I hear that here all the time. Much better to rent those points out. DVC might or might not have captured those points to use at the busiest times in the busiest places for studios. The rental market where those points are now going is most assuredly making that the priority use for those points.
The biggest thing to keep in mind is that most of these problems didn't pop up overnight but over a trend line of the last decade or more, probably at the start of SSR creating so many new members. Now, the trend is accelerating.
What DVC looks like now compared to what it looked like 25 yrs ago isn't nearly the same product. But. What will it look like over the next 25 yrs?
Buy where you want to stay and don't count on the 7 month window for anything. It's going to get worse over time. We bought a Poly fixed week and BCV for studios booked at 11 months.
Good analysis. I think though the push to 'fall frenzy' must mean outside that period availibility is not really affected or gets better? There are more and more people booking during fall frenzy for sure, and whilst this period isn't necessarily higher occupied (DVC operates near 100% occupancy all year) the popularity of this period means people realise they have to book earlier and earlier. I think other periods are unaffected and unless they build another SSR are likely to remain so. I do wonder what will happen when Caribbean Beach is done. If it has a moderate DVC feel, will people buy it and not want to stop there, causing another problem. Hopefully not, and it doesn't look like it will be massive anyway.
I have always been able to book exactly what I want. When we know we are going, I book at my home resort sometime before the 7 month mark and if we want to staysome where else I move right at the 7 month mark. To provide perspective, I own at BLT and since we bought in 2013 we have stayed at: AKL, OKW, BLT, VWL/VB split stay, BCV, and AKL. In that order. We usually go for a week in May and/or August, but we also have a January long weekend and a March break trip in that mix (March break - never again, it not because of DVC). Our next DVC stay will be at BLT again.
Our next trip is a long weekend at ASMu - not because I was not able to find a room, but because it's just me and DS and frankly I am hoarding up points for a trip with family in 2018.
I have been very happy with my ability to book where I want, so far. But I am a planner and I book when the windows open.
I'm the same as you, but I don't go in 'fall frenzy' like you. October to end first week Jan is when the problems arise. If I ever want to go then, I'll book at 11 months and probably end up staying in my home resort, no problems. As stated above, outside of fall frenzy I do not think the problem has really materialised. This is why if you want to travel in these times I think the mantra 'buy where you wouldn't mind staying' and save tons of cash isn't a bad one.
Bill
