Any guesses how much dues will increase in 2024 with new union contract?

[SL6827]

There are some categories that are almost entirely people: Admin/Front Desk, Member Activities, Security, and Housekeeping. There are others that are probably at least half (or more): Maintenance and Transportation. For example, think about any repairs you've had done that were invoiced for time and materials separately. Usually "time" is significant. (Some estimates of transport suggest labor is 70%).

But let's just call it half for both. At e.g. SSR in 2022, the first four categories total $2.55ish and half of the other two comes to $0.72. So at least $3.25ish (or half of total dues) of the total is hourly labor.

That's very close to Tim's figure of 52%.

If that goes up by 18/15ths, it is an increase of $0.65. That's an overestimate, because not everyone is currently at minimum.


This is very good motivation for Disney to be extremely conservative in their estimates. Estimating too high just rolls the excess into capital reserves (and potentially allows for a lower increase later). Estimating too low puts Disney on the hook.

Disney does not like being on the hook.


Too bad $18 doesn't quite cut it in Orlando, even for a single person with no dependents. It's a lot better than it was though.

It is better than it was, but I think in a couple years that $18 will need to be even higher.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think there are some built-in raises in the contract, so in a couple years the $18 will be higher, but I'm not sure about that.

 

[WAstateDVCDaddy]

During the annual budget review, DVC has repeatedly said that wages and benefits make up about 75% of the operating portion of the budget. Almost every category of operating expense has some heavy human involvement (front desk, housekeeping, maintenance, transportation, security, etc.)

If we look at a resort like BoardWalk, the total dues for 2023 is $8.53 per point. The operating portion is $5.88 per point. If wages & benefits are 75% of the $5.88, then we're taking $4.41 per point or 52% of the total dues bill.

Although, not all of those employees are necessarily union members and/or eligible for the full increase.

i worked through the numbers for Aulani, and while they were similar, many of the operational costs are not related to labor (taxes, utilities, shared area expenses, etc.). And many of the labor costs may not be impacted by this contract. The big one for Aulani is “Administration and Front Desk” which if there’s a corresponding one for the WDW resorts, is labor, but may not be impacted (and it’s 13% of the dues).

Based off of tjkraz’s info, I’m modifying my guess to an impact of 20% on $3.80, or around $0.76 per point.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

I, too, will happily drink to a liveable wage for cast members, both union and non-union. Solidarity!

 

[DonMacGregor]

I'm on board with increasing the wages to a livable level for anyone who cleans up after me.

 

[CarolynFH]

I’m glad the workers are getting significant raises, and I’m also glad that the impact to my fixed income probably won’t be as bad as I feared.

 

[WAstateDVCDaddy]

I’m glad the workers are getting significant raises, and I’m also glad that the impact to my fixed income probably won’t be as bad as I feared.

I would say “hopefully the impact won’t be as bad as feared”

Hard to say how much impact there will really be. There are lots of ways to put cost increases into the books.

 

[jpwilsoninc]

During the annual budget review, DVC has repeatedly said that wages and benefits make up about 75% of the operating portion of the budget. Almost every category of operating expense has some heavy human involvement (front desk, housekeeping, maintenance, transportation, security, etc.)

If we look at a resort like BoardWalk, the total dues for 2023 is $8.53 per point. The operating portion is $5.88 per point. If wages & benefits are 75% of the $5.88, then we're taking $4.41 per point or 52% of the total dues bill.

Although, not all of those employees are necessarily union members and/or eligible for the full increase.

isn’t there a limit to the annual dues increase?

 

[tjkraz]

isn’t there a limit to the annual dues increase?

I believe it's 15% year-to-year, not including property taxes.

This wage increase shouldn't come close to pushing them over 15%. CMs had similar annual wage increases in their last contract. Even if a resort was budgeted to exceed the 15% threshold, dues would go up exactly 15% the first year and then they'd make up the difference the next.

 

[tjkraz]

I would say “hopefully the impact won’t be as bad as feared”

Hard to say how much impact there will really be. There are lots of ways to put cost increases into the books.

I mean, if you want to play the "Disney will find a way to screw DVC owners" game, that's been the case for 30+ years.

As recently as 2018 the base pay was only $10 per hour. The last union contract had staggered increases which brought it up to $15 by 2021. That was reflected in dues increases over the 4 year span. Same will be true here, though percentage-wise, it's looking like a lower increase.

 

[Brian Noble]

I mean, if you want to play the "Disney will find a way to screw DVC owners" game, that's been the case for 30+ years.

Exactly. There are really only three options. One: You trust that Disney is, for the most part, playing by the rules and/or the auditors catch any mistakes and shenanigans. Two: You don't trust Disney to do that, but you decide you don't care. Three: Don't own.

 

[SL6827]

Exactly. There are really only three options. One: You trust that Disney is, for the most part, playing by the rules and/or the auditors catch any mistakes and shenanigans. Two: You don't trust Disney to do that, but you decide you don't care. Three: Don't own.

Very true.

 

[tom1944]

Does AKV have higher labor costs? I could see the well-deserved increase having a more significant impact at that resort.

 

[Disney_escape]

If employee/cast member cost makes up about 50% of dues, and those costs are going up about 20% this year and 5%/year the next 3 years - would basic math say you can expect dues to rise about 10% this coming year and 2-3% each of the 3 following years?

Also if you look at the new California DVC, dues are $9.06 vs the Grand Cal @ $8.04. Plus the Grand Cal has the transient tax included @ $0.51/per point.
So I am expecting a 10% this year and 2-3% the following 3 years. PLUS the normal increase for regular cost increases. Inflation, its a beautiful thing.
The great thing about DVC is your inflation is only on your dues (so $8 x 20 pts/night) vs the hotels that raise rates at the same rate but on $500+/night.

 

[mz-s]

Labor is the most expensive thing in the world.

 

[tidefan]

I don't care much about the increase, I'm just glad housekeeping and all other CMs are getting a liveable wage.

While the wage increases are probably a good thing, in the end, it sort of becomes a never-ending cycle. As wages increase, the cost of goods increase, as the cost of goods increase, people's purchasing power becomes lower, as people's purchasing power becomes lower, they demand higher wages to keep up. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

This is an imperfect example, but it sort of reflects the nature of things. I've always called it "Subway Economics". I remember a few years back after Seattle went to the $15 minimum wage. I went to a Subway and a footlong ham and cheese sub was around $11. I went back to Alabama and while the minimum wage was only $7.50, the footlong ham and cheese sub was $4.99... I wondered, who was really better off...

So, the short answer is that there really isn't a good answer to this question and it's much more complex than people want to think it is... Nothing happens in a vacuum.

 

[tidefan]

Labor is the most expensive thing in the world.

You obviously haven't been shopping for trucks lately

 

[mz-s]

You obviously haven't been shopping for trucks lately

Thankfully no! I hope to not be in the market for a vehicle for around a decade.

 

[sethschroeder]

I don't care much about the increase, I'm just glad housekeeping and all other CMs are getting a liveable wage.

Eh it's not fully liveable.

Little by little with everyone getting more everything costs more.

Need more affordable housing in the region.