Annual Pass Trip Explosion

[crocko]

Because of pass, we have a late fall 2013 trip and an early fall 2014 trip planned -- but I definitely understand about how that annual pass can burn a hole...

No doubt my wife would love to convince me to book a little trip in May

 

[cush1]

UR is Ultimate Rewards - it's Chase's rewards points system. It's very flexible and can be transferred to partner programs (hotels, air miles, etc) immediately for a 1:1 ratio.

I still have my Disney VISA, but rarely use it unless I want to use a discount or the 6 month no payment plan.

Almost all Disney purchases earn 2% on my Chase Sapphire Preferred card (2% on Travel and Dining) so I use it instead.

Great point about the 2% on travel and dining. I'm really happy with my Chase Freedom card and have a Disney Card, too.

 

[disfanforlife]

I actually have a citibank card that pays 2 % on everything. But, I got the SW car for the bonus airmiles.

 

[tjkraz]

This proves that Disney was smart to offer the $399 AP deal to DVC Members. People are booking more and more trips, and that means more $$$.

Not necessarily.

If owners are simply using the points they have available, there's no real gain on Disney's part.

There are about 2500 DVC villas (2B equivalent) at Walt Disney World. Those rooms were going to be at-or-near 100% occupancy whether the PAP discount was offered or not.

What probably IS happening is that some owners are borrowing points in greater numbers throughout their 2012 and 2013 Use Years to get the most from their discounted PAPs. Instead of using points for trips more evenly distributed in 2012, '13 and '14, they are borrowing and bunching the trips in '12 and '13.

The only way DVC really benefits from the PAP offer is if the spate of new trips leads to add-on point sales. "I don't have any points left for '14 but still want to visit...I need more points!"

Coincidentally (not really), the Grand Floridian will go on sale in a few days. Interesting how that timing worked out, huh?

 

[kirkaliciasmom]

My plan was to buy the $399 PAP, but I was trying to pay off my upcoming cruise (now 5 days away) so I opted not to purchase it. We also frequent DL too, so we need Premier APs anyway, and the $399 would only mean more cost when upgrading. Anyway, I bought the regular DVC rate AP. we'll be at Wdw 9 nights post cruise with another trip planned (airfare bought) for Nov 9-17 at OKW. I'm hoping we can make at least one more trip before APs expire June 2. Maybe last week of May..... Fingers crossed.

 

[DisneyRegulars]

Not necessarily.

If owners are simply using the points they have available, there's no real gain on Disney's part.

There are about 2500 DVC villas (2B equivalent) at Walt Disney World. Those rooms were going to be at-or-near 100% occupancy whether the PAP discount was offered or not.

What probably IS happening is that some owners are borrowing points in greater numbers throughout their 2012 and 2013 Use Years to get the most from their discounted PAPs. Instead of using points for trips more evenly distributed in 2012, '13 and '14, they are borrowing and bunching the trips in '12 and '13.

The only way DVC really benefits from the PAP offer is if the spate of new trips leads to add-on point sales. "I don't have any points left for '14 but still want to visit...I need more points!"

Coincidentally (not really), the Grand Floridian will go on sale in a few days. Interesting how that timing worked out, huh?

But in the case of me, we have used all our available points, rented points from another owner, and the biggest sin of all, have a rack rate room at AoA, exactly what Disney wanted to have happen.

Sent from my phone using DISBoards Ap, please excuse any typos and autocorrect mistakes.

 

[tjkraz]

But in the case of me, we have used all our available points...

But you would have used the points one way or another so no real gain on Disney's part.

...rented points from another owner...

If you hadn't rented them, someone else would have. (And if the renter were a non-member paying full price for park tickets and other expenses, rather than yourself getting a DVC discount, Disney could have made more money.)

...and the biggest sin of all, have a rack rate room at AoA, exactly what Disney wanted to have happen.

Here Disney stands to gain, but I would question how many DVC members are actually paying for cash trips. Is it enough to offset discounting THOUSANDS of PAPs by another $150 each?

With regard to the travel habits of DVC owners, there are a fixed number of rooms and points. Disney may be getting more of YOUR money because you took more trips due to the PAP offer. But if YOU had not planned so many trips, someone else would have been occupying that room, spending similar dollars.

The real areas where Disney would stand to gain from such an offer are:

1) Add-on point sales from owners who run out.
2) Convinces people who don't normally have length-of-stay park admission to visit the parks more frequently.
3) Some cash bookings from owners.

But again, Disney is also losing money in the process. Every individual who had planned to pay the usual DVC rate for a Premium Annual Pass was able to get it cheaper. The question is whether the financial gains outweigh the losses.

In the case of our family, Disney probably lost money. We had tentative plans to buy single-day admission to Blizzard Beach. Instead we got in free, yet didn't change any other aspect of our spending. We didn't plan any extra trips, didn't buy any more merchandise (even when 20% discount was available), won't be adding any points, etc.

I suspect Disney does come out ahead when this sort of promo is a one-off bonus. But I'm not so sure that the results would be sustainable if the discount were made permanent.

 

[mom of princessx2]

We drive so we figured with the PAP we would take 2 longer trips-11 days in Nov/Dec and 10 days in Oct 2014. Well....I noticed we would have enough points to squeeze in a week at a studio in June 2014 for dd's birthday and now I am trying to get DH to let me and the girls go in March 2014 paying cash for the room. Not to mention the $$ we will spend on food, souveniers and other items, I think WDW was wise to offer this. Lets hope they do reap the benefits of offering this to DVC members and continue to offer it for years to come!

 

[tjkraz]

We drive so we figured with the PAP we would take 2 longer trips-11 days in Nov/Dec and 10 days in Oct 2014. Well....I noticed we would have enough points to squeeze in a week at a studio in June 2014 for dd's birthday and now I am trying to get DH to let me and the girls go in March 2014 paying cash for the room. Not to mention the $$ we will spend on food, souveniers and other items, I think WDW was wise to offer this. Lets hope they do reap the benefits of offering this to DVC members and continue to offer it for years to come!

But if you're just using the points you already own, Disney isn't really gaining anything.

The PAP offer may have altered the manner in which you use your points, but you would have used them one way or another. Whether you use points for those 20-some nights in Nov '13, June '14 and Oct '14...or for some entirely different set of dates...they would have still been used. Park tickets, dining, souvenirs and all of the other spending would have accompanied that use.

Cash trips could represent added revenue for Disney, but I doubt that spending is sustainable. If Disney made the PAP offer permanent, would you really establish a pattern of regularly paying for cash trips?

Member spending patterns can be changed and manipulated with occasional special offers like this. But if Disney made the prices permanent, owners would quickly fall back into their usual routines in terms of spending, trip frequency, etc. The only long term difference would be free access to DQ and the waterparks.

 

[sgtpet]

We have as well. Here are our trips between 11/12-9/13.

11/3/12-11/12/12 BLT
4/19/13-4/26/13 AKV
6/30/13 - 7/5/13 VB but going to WDW 2 days.
9/21/13-9/28/13 BWV


Next year it is the Disney Fantasy in August of 2014 and who knows beyond that, probably Disneyland and Hawaii (Aulani).

 

[JWG]

I don't think the PAP deal was about what DVC would get, it was about what the broader Parks division would get.

Clearly, unless you add points, DVC doesnt' get anything out of this deal. But that's true for any discount, perk or deal. It's not for them, it's for Disney as a whole.

Let's say that DVC members increase their visits over the course of 2013/2014 by 10%. Which, more interesting would be the impact on availability especially during already popular times such as Oct., early Dec., etc.

Anyway, what does that 10% increase mean to the Parks, merchandise, dining, etc.? I think if people are hoping this perk will get offerred again, they better jump on this opportunity and get down to Floriday and spend some cash.

That's the rub, did it drive up spending elsewhere? We all know that Disney doesn't love passholders, especially those that don't spend money. The money is in the Magic Your Way ticket buyers who then also spend oodles of cash on souveneirs and such. For this deal to get extended, I think some cash infusion by those who purchased them may be necessary.

If all it did was drive revenue down - peopl buy them and show up, but don't spend anything. Then there's no point and they won't be back.

 

[mom of princessx2]

But if you're just using the points you already own, Disney isn't really gaining anything.

The PAP offer may have altered the manner in which you use your points, but you would have used them one way or another. Whether you use points for those 20-some nights in Nov '13, June '14 and Oct '14...or for some entirely different set of dates...they would have still been used. Park tickets, dining, souvenirs and all of the other spending would have accompanied that use.

Cash trips could represent added revenue for Disney, but I doubt that spending is sustainable. If Disney made the PAP offer permanent, would you really establish a pattern of regularly paying for cash trips?

Member spending patterns can be changed and manipulated with occasional special offers like this. But if Disney made the prices permanent, owners would quickly fall back into their usual routines in terms of spending, trip frequency, etc. The only long term difference would be free access to DQ and the waterparks.

I wasn't posting to say how much extra money Disney was making on me. My post was basically a "Yeah me!" post because I can squeeze in more trips! I thought that was more what this thread was about.

 

[Miss Potts]

The PAP really made us squeeze in more too!

Oct 2012 - attended a wedding in st augustine, decided to spend time in disney and get an AP because we knew we were going in February.

Feb 2013 - planned trip.. Upgraded room & stayed longer bc of AP discounts

Sept/oct 2013 - since we have the pass, decided a great use of SWA miles for an Anniversary trip!

Wish the 20% merch discount was valid in 2013... Would have bought more in 2012 if I knew it was going away!!!

 

[Geomom]

We squeezed in an extra trip because of the discounted PAP. We tend to get regular AP's every 2 years and usually get 3 uses out of them...April, a fall trip, and then Feb. With the PAP we wanted to try out the water parks and added a summer trip for the first time.

April airfare was horrendous this year...luckily the August and October airfares together cost less than April, otherwise we wouldn't have been able to afford the 'extra' trip.

So count us as another one that Disney will be getting more money out of in the way of meals and souvenirs!

 

[Hollymom1229]

We are going down at least 3 times thanks to the AP. And while DH and I will only be bringing in extra money to Disney through dining and souveniers with a our doubling our nights, our guests on two of the trips will be pure revenue to Disney. Disney is going to make money off guests that join the DVC members on these trips. Also while I'm using the same number of points, instead of getting a 2 BDR for 18 nights, we'll be in a studio for 8 nights, and a 1 BDR for 18 nights, so a definitive raise in the number of days we'll be at Disney spending money.

So yes, the PAP has caused us to plan at least 3 trips (with a possible 4th), instead of at most 2.

 

[tjkraz]

Let's say that DVC members increase their visits over the course of 2013/2014 by 10%.

Thing is, that's not possible on the macro level since the number of villas is fixed.

Individual MEMBERS may alter their trip habits. But if there are (approx) 2500 villas, those 2500 rooms will be filled regardless of whether an extra PAP discount is offered or not. There's no room for 10% trip growth (unless you count cash trips and I doubt it's anything close to 10% across all members.)

 

[JWG]

Thing is, that's not possible on the macro level since the number of villas is fixed.

Individual MEMBERS may alter their trip habits. But if there are (approx) 2500 villas, those 2500 rooms will be filled regardless of whether an extra PAP discount is offered or not. There's no room for 10% trip growth (unless you count cash trips and I doubt it's anything close to 10% across all members.)

Very true. Though if more people are going (as the 1% representation of members shows here) to take advantage - who isn't going? Or, will some members shift to a free dining opportunity?

We've done split stays, off-site/DVC as well. Some of those types of trips? Maybe a Potter trip and, heck, add a couple of Disney days with the pass?

I am curious as to what impact, if any, this has. Very true - inventory is fixed. But, maybe unused inventory during down times (those times you can get SSR with a week's notice), will fill up?

Who knows - but it sure was a nice deal. It would be great if they kept it.

 

[Maleficent53]

My group has AP for the first time this year. We purchased them knowing we would be making 2 trips for sure. We activated them in November-

November 7-14, 2012 Meeting up with old friends/MVMCP
Feb 24-March 5, 2013 Extra trip thrown in - because we had AP
Unbooked summer trip To take my DGS on his first visit
October unbooked trip Meeting up with family/MNSSHP

Plus, I can fly in for day trips (work for an airline) and have dropped in 3 times so far in 2013 - twice to listen to the bands at EC flower and garden shows!

I know having AP has added 2 trips to our schedule for this year --

 

[tjkraz]

Very true. Though if more people are going (as the 1% representation of members shows here) to take advantage - who isn't going? Or, will some members shift to a free dining opportunity?

The early bird gets the worm.

In a typical year, large resorts like OKW and SSR wouldn't fill up until close to travel dates. This year and into '14 I suspect we'll see an increase in availability complaints when we're less than 6 months from desired arrival dates. People who are used to booking on 4-5 months' notice (or less) will find less availability than they are accustomed to.

Those owners may be forced to bank points or use them for non-DVC destinations.

Don't get me wrong...there are many ways that both the Disney Parks and DVC can benefit from this promo. But it's not as simple as saying "I'm taking more trips this year so clearly Disney is benefitting by offering the PAP discount."

It's much more complicated than that.

 

[ktate82]

We just joined DVC and have regular APs, any idea if this may be offered again?