Analysis of Riviera sales as of 5/10/2019

[skier_pete]

Phew - this seems to be way off track.

I will just say I believe SSR is a big part of the problem, and it isn't about direct vs resale. It's a massive resort with 14 million points. As many as Beach Club, Boardwalk and BLT combined. And while all resorts tend to have quite a number of people that trade out - when you talk to SSR people on the boards / Facebook you see way more of "Oh, I've never/rarely stayed there" than any other resort by a long shot. (Even OKW and AKV has significantly more "stay-at-homes" than SSR. We own at AKV and we "stay home" about half the time.)

On top of that, those that own at other resorts will rarely say that SSR is their top choice to trade into - so SSR reamains (a) the largest resort by almost 7 million points (b) most traded out of by owners there, and (c) least desirable to other owners. In fact, I think part of the reason they shifted to the point structure there was to make it a little more desirable by having some lower point room there - because on top of all it's other problems, it's point values are steep.

 

[CarolMN]

OK. NO MORE NAME CALLING. Let's be done with the resale debate and return to the topic which is ANALYSIS OF RIVIERA RESALES.

Please do not make us close this thread or issue individual warnings / infractions.

Thank you!

 

[dvcsince93]

I argue that teachers are attacked so often that they are forced to explain & defend their job. If you honestly feel that resale buyers would be so vocal if we weren’t being targeted, then we must accept that we will never find common ground. & that’s okay too.

I personally don’t understand why DVC grandfathers perks. It would be so easy to retroactively deny perks to which resale has no claim. They won’t though, because they know that many of their direct buyers own resale. Their decision to vilify resale is their own, but they cannot expect us to not mount a defence.

I agree that teachers are unappreciated worldwide and that people to target them for unfair criticism.

Who exactly targets DVC resale buyers?

I believe that DVD says that resale buyers are cheating the system. However, as you can probably guess from my posts, I am not sure that is 100% wrong. I think that that there are a group of resale buyers that have chosen to buy points at places they don't want and then use them everywhere else.

Unlike other systems, DVC is not just one giant pool of points-all DVC points are linked to a resort. I think that in a point based system where points are tied to a home resort for priority, that causes a misbalance of points and creates problems in the system. DVD would have the facts so they know if its true or not.

I still don't see that as villification, in what way does DVD villifiy resale buyers?

I don't believe that Disney calls resale buyers names such as cretin or evil or whatever. I think that Disney realizes that resale buyers are stlll spending money at WDW.

Who else targets resale buyers?

As to the grandfathering of perks, ironically it helps the resale buyers the most. I really don't need the membership perks grandfathered on the resale points I own since I also own direct points. On the other hand, people who only have bought resale points are the people most helped by grandfathering.

Finally, resale buyers on this board are much more the attacker than the attacked. Posts start with the basic assumption that DVD is wrong, and evil and the restrictions are bad, period. The arguments are emotional not factual. And they attack anyone who dares disagree. There are people who are actively hoping that DRR fails, trying to convince people not to buy direct because DVD is bad. That is not mounting a defense, that is bullying.

 

[Madame]

I agree that teachers are unappreciated worldwide and that people to target them for unfair criticism.

Who exactly targets DVC resale buyers?

I believe that DVD says that resale buyers are cheating the system. However, as you can probably guess from my posts, I am not sure that is 100% wrong. I think that that there are a group of resale buyers that have chosen to buy points at places they don't want and then use them everywhere else.

Unlike other systems, DVC is not just one giant pool of points-all DVC points are linked to a resort. I think that in a point based system where points are tied to a home resort for priority, that causes a misbalance of points and creates problems in the system. DVD would have the facts so they know if its true or not.

I still don't see that as villification, in what way does DVD villifiy resale buyers?

I don't believe that Disney calls resale buyers names such as cretin or evil or whatever. I think that Disney realizes that resale buyers are stlll spending money at WDW.

Who else targets resale buyers?

As to the grandfathering of perks, ironically it helps the resale buyers the most. I really don't need the membership perks grandfathered on the resale points I own since I also own direct points. On the other hand, people who only have bought resale points are the people most helped by grandfathering.

Finally, resale buyers on this board are much more the attacker than the attacked. Posts start with the basic assumption that DVD is wrong, and evil and the restrictions are bad, period. The arguments are emotional not factual. And they attack anyone who dares disagree. There are people who are actively hoping that DRR fails, trying to convince people not to buy direct because DVD is bad. That is not mounting a defense, that is bullying.

But, that's the system! The system we all bought into! We all could have bought a weeks based timeshare, but we didn't. If purchasers didn't understand the basic premise of the system, then that's their problem. The HR priority exists for a reason. DVC can manipulate this window to a certain extent if it feels the system is being abused, but they haven't. They changed the rules around rentals when it was affecting the system, so if this were a specific resale problem, they could fix it. The fact that they don't indicates to me that it really is just a talking point.

If you hang out around FB groups the divide between resale and retail has gotten vicious. It is being stoked by guides (based on anecdotal evidence on this site and elsewhere). We have Bing's account and I have seen others on FB. People who bought retail feel cheated because they paid more for what is essentially the same product. They feel this way because DVC prices and charts are out of control for most buyers who are middle to upper middle class.

Here are some of the things DVC could do if resale were the REAL problem (and not just a convenient talking point when members call screaming that a studio is not available at their HR during the 1st 2 wks of Dec). There are probably more...
1. Extend the HR booking window to give owners a longer window at their HR
2. ROFR all the SSR points (this is NOT going to happen) and resell them as direct...... (btw, many SSR direct owners on FB claim to have never stayed at SSR, which they purchased at opening)
3. Stop using AKV value point charts during salespitches (seen this on several sites that this is so) - but look, you can get an AKV value at 7 month out with your 75 pts! It creates false expectation amongst direct buyers and then they pull the resale blame card.
4. Retroactively remove grandfathering in order to encourage more direct sales (APs, Moonlight Magic, lounges etc)
5. Put in a clause which ensures all contracts are bought back by DVC and eliminating the resale market all together (yeah, right)

None of the above will fix the fact that they sold SSR and AUL suggesting that direct buyers could easily trade out.
None of the above will fix Fall Frenzy - all they need to do here is redo the charts to better reflect demand which has fluctuated with changing demographics (retired boomers) and school schedules (fall breaks), but they have yet to do so...
None of the above will change the fact that if you are desperate to sell your contract, that you will be thankful that the resale market exists in its present form...

I am seriously jealous of those who bought DVC direct 20 years ago at a much cheaper rate, but I accept that my situation was different and I made different choices (as a teenager ). I really want to own at CCV (I love WL), but I have to accept that I am unwilling to pay direct pricing (and probably resale pricing) for that resort for the number of points we would need, and that other than random days, I won't be staying there because I don't own there. I don't attack direct owners and I don't want DRR to fail (I want to stay there one day if I get lucky at the 7 month window). I would like DVC to stop spreading anti-resale sentiment. It's not just another timeshare. There are the parks and merchandising divisions, etc to consider. They are creating anti-brand sentiment for minimal, short-term gain instead of dealing with it if it truly is a problem

 

[Bing Showei]

OK. NO MORE NAME CALLING. Let's be done with the resale debate and return to the topic which is ANALYSIS OF RIVIERA RESALES.

Please do not make us close this thread or issue individual warnings / infractions.

Thank you!

Carol, would it be possible to move the resale-related posts to another thread.

People can then ignore all this chatter if they want, we won’t pollute the Riviera analyst thread, and most importantly it will provide for a platform for people to discuss this further.

There are a lot of things being said that others don’t agree with and it would be important to have an opportunity to voice that. As a bonus, if it becomes uncivil, you can shut it down as it would be quarantined.

Also, if you could title the new thread “Resale Cretins” that would be kind of awesome. But your call.





Ummm, my vote is for “Resale Cretins”... in case you were wondering.

 

[CarolMN]

Not going to move posts. Too many and some of them are not consistent with the DISboards posting guidelines.

No objection to someone starting a new thread on the impact of resale points on DVC sales / booking or whatever it is you are discussing, but strongly suggest it be titled in a non-confrontational way. I'm sure you all can think of a way to post your opinions on the subject without resorting to name calling, labeling, sarcasm, etc.

Any further posts in this thread that aren't related to the original topic will be deleted.

 

[sethschroeder]

Interested to see where sales go as we ramp up to opening day

 

[Bing Showei]

Interested to see where sales go as we ramp up to opening day

Barring a major economic shift downward, my guess is there will be a two spikes in sales prior to opening. One will be when the Skyliner starts operations and people see how well it runs. Another will be immediately before an announced price hike goes into effect, which I anticipate will precede resort opening.

Until opening, sales will likely move at a steady clip, at least matching, probably exceeding, the rate that CCV sold at.

 

[dvcsince93]

Through the first week of June, a total of 1164 contracts have been recorded.

The median contract point value is 150 pts. The most popular contract size is 200 pts, (about 15% of sales) followed by 150 pts (about 12% of sales). About 5% of the contracts are over 350 points including 6 contracts of 1000 pts or more. The smallest contract is 50 pts (about 10% of the contracts). (There are 3 40 pt. contracts but they were bought by the same people at the same time.)

In case you didn't see it, even better facts and figures from DVCNews:

In its first full month of sales, Riviera recorded 586 deeds containing 97,988 points. Disney has now sold 157,234 Riviera points, about 2.3% of its 6.7 million total points.

The Riviera is averaging 158.3 points per deed after two calendar months of sales, which is greater than the early per-point averages recorded by Grand Floridian (134.0 points), Polynesian (108.0 points), or Copper Creek (148.2 points)

The Riviera has moved into the top spot after only one full month of sales. It wasn’t until its fourth month that Disney's Polynesian Villas & Bungalows passed the Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, and it took Copper Creek nine full months before it took the top spot away from the Polynesian.

 

[Wakey]

Just watching the latest DVC show on YouTube.

Interesting to hear Pete W’s hearing internal chatter that Riviera is not selling well and they may change resale restrictions.

Also the lady from Timeshare Store who says that for first time on the opening of a new resort they don’t have current owners calling up to sell their points to reinvest in the latest resort.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Just watching the latest DVC show on YouTube.

Interesting to hear Pete W’s heading internal chatter that Riviera is not selling well and they my change resale restrictions.

Also the lady from Timeshare Store who says that for first time on the opening of a new resort they don’t have current owners calling up to sell their points to reinvest in the latest resort.

I haven't really heard where DVC has been concentrating their sales efforts in the past month? Whichever the choose to focus on is the one that ends up most prevalent in sales as so many new buyers are finding out about DVC in the parks and then purchase some magic on their trip. And they purchase the one they are told about. IF they've been really focused on Riviera and CCV sold almost the same number of contracts then the might be disconcerting to management. I know people were speculating what a failure CCV was to start but DVC was absolutely still focused on selling PVB. Once they switched to actually selling CCV then it jumped to the top. If they were still concentrated on CCV then it seems surprising they are concerned about Riviera.

 

[crvetter]

Riviera has sold 2.3% of it's points according to DVCNews so far up to the end of May. Now it is important to remember that number is Deeds recorded which generally are recorded 30 days after the paperwork being signed. So likely those are the points sold until the end of April (some sold the first couple days, maybe first week, in May). So really they sold about 2.3% (~158k points) in less than 1.5 months that is visible to us (March 27-end of April, maybe a week of May).

A few things to remember:

1) Half a month was sold to current members only
2) We have a little over a month (May and June) that isn't accounted for in DVCNews' article because of the month delay in deed recording.

So looking at it to me it personally doesn't seem to be selling all that bad, similar pace as CCV, maybe slightly above? That final part will take a month or two more to see. I honestly don't see DVC even considering rolling back the resale restrictions as Y was very adamant they were here to stay and sales don't appear to have taken a hit from the numbers above. Basically it puts the resort on a 3-4 year timeline to sell out. Considering Reflections is coming online in 2022 I'm guessing that is the timeline they expected. Don't want a period of no active resorts because then the guides will be out of money and likely leave.

I'm not sure Pete's source but my guess is DVC rides it out a while before rolling back the restrictions and it is a "bus" driver rumor at this point. Also the anecdotal evidence by the Timeshare Store really is limited pool of those that buy a resort (and some stats recently scrapped from the OCC's website has shown point turnover isn't as high as originally thought).

 

[aoconnor]

Just watching the latest DVC show on YouTube.

Interesting to hear Pete W’s heading internal chatter that Riviera is not selling well and they my change resale restrictions.

Also the lady from Timeshare Store who says that for first time on the opening of a new resort they don’t have current owners calling up to sell their points to reinvest in the latest resort.

Hmm. Based on DVC News analysis it appears to be in-line with early sales for CCV overall, but perhaps it's only selling well with certain groups? For example it's popular as an add-on for existing members but new buyers aren't so interested (or vice versa - I could see it either way).

New buyers may not have a strong gut reaction to a resort they've never seen before and it doesn't have a particularly "Disney" theme to boot. The past four have been at familiar resorts that even more casual Disney fans know (WL, Poly, GF, Contemporary). That said, most new buyers would likely be oblivious to the resale restriction so changing that wouldn't matter.

Seasoned owners know the value of its location but may have hesitations with the restrictions. I have no doubt they would sell more add-ons by removing the restrictions.

 

[kboo]

The Riviera is averaging 158.3 points per deed after two calendar months of sales, which is greater than the early per-point averages recorded by Grand Floridian (134.0 points), Polynesian (108.0 points), or Copper Creek (148.2 points)

You would know better because you've spent a lot more time scouring the OCC site, but I recall seeing a good number of contracts being broken up - i.e. one buyer, buying a larger chunk of points and breaking it up into smaller contracts. I believe this was during the time that RIV was being sold to current members only. This would suggest that the actual # of points bought per owner is higher than 158.

(I am one of them - bought more than 158 points total, but they are broken into 2 contracts each less than 158 points.)

 

[carli_h]

You would know better because you've spent a lot more time scouring the OCC site, but I recall seeing a good number of contracts being broken up - i.e. one buyer, buying a larger chunk of points and breaking it up into smaller contracts. I believe this was during the time that RIV was being sold to current members only. This would suggest that the actual # of points bought per owner is higher than 158.

(I am one of them - bought more than 158 points total, but they are broken into 2 contracts each less than 158 points.)

I also bought 2 smaller contracts each less than 158 points.

 

[dvcsince93]

You called it, I skimmed throught the first 600 recorded deeds and there were 10 times people bought 2 contracts, 11 times people bought 3 contracts, 2 times that people bought 4 contracts and one person bought 7 contracts. So, more than 10% of the 600 contracts were purchased by multiple contract buyers.

 

[dvcsince93]

So I went through the last 608 and here are the final numbers:

Total RIV contracts:1208
All points in single contract: 1053 buyers
Split into 2 contracts- 30 buyers
Split into 3 contracts- 17 buyers
Split into 4 contracts - 6 buyers
Split into 6 contracts- 1 buyer
Split into 7 contracts -2 buyers

 

[skier_pete]

So I went through the last 608 and here are the final numbers:

Total RIV contracts:1208
All points in single contract: 1053 buyers
Split into 2 contracts- 30 buyers
Split into 3 contracts- 17 buyers
Split into 4 contracts - 6 buyers
Split into 6 contracts- 1 buyer
Split into 7 contracts -2 buyers

7 contracts? So are they buying a ton of points or a lot of tiny contracts.

 

[KenziesMom11]

This may be somewhere on some other board, but does anyone think they will lift the resale restriction in 20+ years or so? I am considering buying my membership here but I'm concerned if I sell in 25 years, no one will want to buy them since they can only go to this resort if they buy through resale. Thoughts?

 

[crvetter]

This may be somewhere on some other board, but does anyone think they will lift the resale restriction in 20+ years or so? I am considering buying my membership here but I'm concerned if I sell in 25 years, no one will want to buy them since they can only go to this resort if they buy through resale. Thoughts?

I would buy with the understanding of the situation as it stands today. The though of it getting lifted is just a possible outcome. They will do whatever is best for DVC's bottom line. I will say in 25 years the new BCV and BWV resorts could be coming online thus depressing the resale prices of DRR so I would consider that too. There are a lot of variable to consider ultimately.

The desirability of DRR will ultimately control the resale prices with the restrictions as they stand.