Analysis of Riviera sales as of 5/10/2019

[dvcsince93]

The all catagory is just sales by DVD, resale is not included.

 

[Katie L]

The all catagory is just sales by DVD, resale is not included.

"Sold out" really is a dumb term for "not focusing on anymore". Lol. Thanks for sharing those numbers.

 

[dvcsince93]

That got me wondering- For the same time period this year (4/12-5/17), there were 489 resales.

They ranged from 30-400 pts.

Here is the resort breakdown:

SSR 115

AKV 76

BLT 67

PVB 63

OKW 51

VWL 37

BWV 33

BCV 23

VGF 23

CCV 8

 

[Frederic Civish]

Sales for Riviera began a little over 6 weeks ago. Here are some fast facts on how the resort is doing as of 5/10/2019.

• 470 contracts have been sold thus far
• 71,691 points have been sold (approximately 1.1% of the 6.5 million resort's total points)
• Using some quick math at an average of $165 per point, this represents approx. $10,000,000 give or take a couple million in total sales for Riviera so far.

Notice that they say this is the sales over SIX WEEKS, not one month.

It certainly is selling slower than Copper Creek and even Aulani. I imagine a lot has to do with it not being complete and there not being any real opinion on it yet. Also, the Skyliner is untested/unproven. Finally, the new restrictions almost certainly have something to do with it.

It is true that Riviera is not finished yet, but it also is in a quite visible location and I think there is a lot of pent up demand that has built and grown recently. So, I guess we will see, but considering Aulani is thousands of miles away (and not really popular, taking FOREVER to sell out) and Copper Creek, though in a very beautiful lodge, is out of the way, not readily visible, and most Disney vacationers don't even know it exists, and certainly haven't been there, unless they went there deliberately. Whereas Riviera is out in the open, and you can't miss it, if you are anywhere between Epcot International gate and Swan and Dolphin.

For the sake of comparision lets look at the first month of sales (Granted the economy was different for CC and Poly):

Riviera sold 59,246 points
Copper Creek sold 51,675 points
Polynesian sold 61,050 points

Yes, but if the sales of Riviera, above were over 6 weeks, then you would have to adjust the sales you list here, from 4 weeks to 6 weeks, so, for comparison, they would be approximately:

Riviera sold 59,246 points
Copper Creek 76,000 points
Polynesian 91,000 points

That got me wondering- For the same time period this year (4/12-5/17), there were 489 resales.

So, Riviera sold 470 Direct contracts during the same period that there were 489 Resales? I wouldn't say that is spectacular on the part of Riviera.

I'm sure Riviera will sell out. I doubt Disney is going to back-track on their restrictions. And we won't really see how things settle out, for comparison, until maybe this Fall. BUT, if Riviera isn't selling very well by then, certainly at a faster pace than it is now, I think it will be something of a disappointment for Disney.

 

[kboo]

Can we just ask @dvcsince93 to analyze the data every which way for us? The info is fascinating. Thanks!

 

[zavandor]

It is too early to judge the success of Riviera over previous resorts. We are in a phase where sales are dictated more by the guides focus than the resort itself. CCV was lagging at first, people wrote posts about how badly it was selling; then when Poly sold out and marketing started focusing on CCV it outperformed the Poly and DVC is currently in a streak of record breaking months. I have the impression they're already making some effort to sell DRR, even if CCV is not sold out yet (the video is actually very cool), but I don't know if that's true.
We have to wait and see.

 

[dvcsince93]

So here is the deal with the numbers, I don't know how anyone else calculates it, all I can speak to is sales figures based on deeds recorded on the county website. That is, when I state that X number of contracts were sold, that means that X number of deeds were recorded in Orange County, FL. You can look at each deed and see the date the contract was sold but that is a very time consuming process. Instead it is easier to base it on the date the deeds were recorded since you can search for that and the time from signing the contract to recording the deed is likely to be relatively consistent.

For RIV, I believe that sales started in late March, however, the very first deeds were not recorded until April 12, 2019- a quick look revealed that the deeds that were recorded on April 12, 2019 included contracts sold on the first few days of sales in March.

As of today, the last date on which RIV deeds have been recorded is May 28, 2019. So from April 12 - May 28, 940 RIV deeds had been recorded.

In order to see how RIV was doing, I attempted to compare the number of recorded deeds for RIV for the time period of April 12-May 28, about 45 days, with the number of deeds recorded for CCV, PVB and VGF during the first 45 days of recorded deeds when those resorts when on sale as well as the overall number of deeds sold by DVD during those time periods:

The numbers:

April 12-May 28, 2019
Rivera: 940 Deeds
All of DVC/WDW:. 2620 Deeds

April 14-May 30, 2017- Start of sales for CCV
CCV : 560 Deeds
DVC/WDW:3011

January 27-March 16, 2015-Start of sales for PVB
PVB: 1052 deeds
DVC/WDW 2913

June 6-July 22, 2013-Start of sales for VGF
VGF: 2120
DVC/WDW 3684

This of course does not include a point breakdown. I know of no way to calculate the points without looking at the deeds. I tried it and the first 850 RIV contracts recorded thorugh May 17, totaled 130201 pts. or about 152 pts/contracts. But that is way time consuming-don't see it happening again- I admire those people with the patience to actually put out those numbers.

 

[dvcsince93]

One last number of interest, since April 12, when the first RIV deed was recorded, 652 resale deeds have also been recorded, 154 of which are SSR contracts.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

So here is the deal with the numbers, I don't know how anyone else calculates it, all I can speak to is sales figures based on deeds recorded on the county website. That is, when I state that X number of contracts were sold, that means that X number of deeds were recorded in Orange County, FL. You can look at each deed and see the date the contract was sold but that is a very time consuming process. Instead it is easier to base it on the date the deeds were recorded since you can search for that and the time from signing the contract to recording the deed is likely to be relatively consistent.

For RIV, I believe that sales started in late March, however, the very first deeds were not recorded until April 12, 2019- a quick look revealed that the deeds that were recorded on April 12, 2019 included contracts sold on the first few days of sales in March.

As of today, the last date on which RIV deeds have been recorded is May 28, 2019. So from April 12 - May 28, 940 RIV deeds had been recorded.

In order to see how RIV was doing, I attempted to compare the number of recorded deeds for RIV for the time period of April 12-May 28, about 45 days, with the number of deeds recorded for CCV, PVB and VGF during the first 45 days of recorded deeds when those resorts when on sale as well as the overall number of deeds sold by DVD during those time periods:

The numbers:

April 12-May 28, 2019
Rivera: 940 Deeds
All of DVC/WDW:. 2620 Deeds

April 14-May 30, 2017- Start of sales for CCV
CCV : 560 Deeds
DVC/WDW:3011

January 27-March 16, 2015-Start of sales for PVB
PVB: 1052 deeds
DVC/WDW 2913

June 6-July 22, 2013-Start of sales for VGF
VGF: 2120
DVC/WDW 3684

This of course does not include a point breakdown. I know of no way to calculate the points without looking at the deeds. I tried it and the first 850 RIV contracts recorded thorugh May 17, totaled 130201 pts. or about 152 pts/contracts. But that is way time consuming-don't see it happening again- I admire those people with the patience to actually put out those numbers.

One thing with PVB is that they were not registered in all states for sales when they started. There were quite a few people reporting they wanted to purchase but could not. I believe that they may not have even been registered in CA by the time they started but may be remembering that detail incorrectly.

When they started CCV sales they were not hardly talking about it and still heavily promoting PVB. I don’t think it’s been the same with RIV which they have promoted more during the first 45 days. VGF was similar to CCV as they were still “finishing” sales at AKV.

 

[michael61]

I know that the above opinion reflects that of the majority of posters here on the DIS DVC forums. However, the more I think about it, the less sure I am that this assumption will end up being correct.

I think DRR (and the skyliner) will end up being very popular. People will be happy to buy DRR via resale because that is where they want to stay. Can't stay elsewhere? Who cares?

We almost always stay at the BWV and would be absolutely fine with staying there every time. (Bought in 1999 and not counting a handful of split stays, stayed elsewhere exactly one time). I have to believe that most all of those buying BCV & BWV contracts these days are doing so because they want to stay there. Prices for those 2042 resorts don't seem to make sense otherwise - the smaller contracts don't last long on the resale market and actually command a premium. Why wouldn't DRR end up the same? I'll reserve final judgement until after it opens, but everything I've seen so far indicates it's going to be just gorgeous & give the Grand Floridian a "run for the money". JMHO. YMMV.

I think your missing the big problem, If i wanted to go to Disney and there was no Availability at Riviera then I have no options. If they didn’t have the restrictions i would have the option of staying somewhere else to me that’s the biggest problem with the resale.
I don’t know about you but it happens quite a bit to me. Why buy there when there are great resorts with 14 resorts of inventory.

 

[michael61]

Sales for Riviera began a little over 6 weeks ago. Here are some fast facts on how the resort is doing as of 5/10/2019. Keep in mind, these are contracts that have been recorded, so there is likely a fair amount processing still, but still a good metric on where things stand:

• 470 contracts have been sold thus far
• 71,691 points have been sold (approximately 1.1% of the 6.5 million resort's total points)
• The average contract size is 153 points
• The median contract size is 150 points
• The smallest contract sold is 50 points
• The largest contract sold so far is 1,235 points
• 7 fixed weeks have been sold (2 for week 48, 3 for week 49, 2 for week 51)
• Fixed week types: 3 Standard Studio, 2 Studio Preferred, 1 Two Bedroom Standard, 1 Grand Villa
• Using some quick math at an average of $165 per point, this represents approx. $10,000,000 give or take a couple million in total sales for Riviera so far.

The resale restrictions is the only reason I backed out of purchasing at Riviera I have to imagine I am Not the only one that would be concerned about that.
What i see as the big problem is if i Purchased a resale at Riviera and my dates for my vacation are not available I have no options so why buy there when a resale at one of the other resorts give me 14 other resorts to choose from.
The will be very limited Purchases for my resale and certainly will be at much lower resale value.
The good thing for Disney there are lots of people with lots of money that may not care but time will tell.

 

[CarolMN]

I think your missing the big problem, If i wanted to go to Disney and there was no Availability at Riviera then I have no options. If they didn’t have the restrictions i would have the option of staying somewhere else to me that’s the biggest problem with the resale.
I don’t know about you but it happens quite a bit to me. Why buy there when there are great resorts with 14 resorts of inventory.

I understand that many Members prefer to move around and/or cannot book very far in advance. I just think that the "big problem" is overblown here on the DIS. The "big problem" isn't one for us and I suspect it isn't one for a great many of those who currently buy the near park resorts via resale.

We've owned at BWV since 1999 and always book at 11 months. Over the course of our ownership, we've never run into a lack of availability. It's my belief that those who buy BWV now via resale do so to stay there, and they are diligent about booking at 11 months or shortly thereafter. (That's probably true of other near-park resorts, too). I see no reason why that strategy wouldn't also work at DRR, and I think there are enough of that type of Member to support a robust resale market for DRR in the coming years. Since there won't be many DRR resales available for the next several years, we'll have to wait & see, I guess.

 

[dvcsince93]

Not sure about the focus of DVD sales, but for what its worth, here are the numbers including the resort which is nearly sold at the time the new resort opens..

The numbers:

April 12-May 28, 2019
Rivera: 940 Deeds
CCV: 1139
All of DVC/WDW:. 2620 Deeds

April 14-May 30, 2017- Start of sales for CCV
CCV : 560 Deeds
PVB:1860
DVC/WDW:3011

January 27-March 16, 2015-Start of sales for PVB
PVB: 1052 deeds
VGF 1512
DVC/WDW 2913

June 6-July 22, 2013-Start of sales for VGF
VGF: 2120
AKV: 1168
DVC/WDW 3684

Also, please remember that these numbers are approxiamate- I had typos in the search terms found deeds for both "cooper creek" and "animal kingdon"..

 

[Chrisvee]

Congrats. We bought ours 2 weeks ago. Excited to stay there next year.

Hi neighbors! I bought a 150 point contract in April.

 

[vikequeen]

Hi neighbors! I bought a 150 point contract in April.

Have you booked your first stay? We can't go until next summer unfortunately. I anxiously await the first reviews!

 

[skier_pete]

Here's the bjg problem with resale restrictions in my view. Every resort, even the most popular, has people that trade out of it. This has to happen to make rooms available to let people trade in. By having a resort that people can't trade out of, while people can trade into, you've upset that balance. And those buying resale will have to pounce on rooms at 11 months. So this restriction will in the end effect the direct buyer to a pretty severe degree. Admittedly we don't know what percent of resorts are owned by resale, but if resale ownership gets to say 25%, the restrictions will adversely affect all owners.

 

[CarolMN]

Here's the bjg problem with resale restrictions in my view. Every resort, even the most popular, has people that trade out of it. This has to happen to make rooms available to let people trade in. By having a resort that people can't trade out of, while people can trade into, you've upset that balance. And those buying resale will have to pounce on rooms at 11 months. So this restriction will in the end effect the direct buyer to a pretty severe degree. Admittedly we don't know what percent of resorts are owned by resale, but if resale ownership gets to say 25%, the restrictions will adversely affect all owners.

Very true. However, all direct purchasers CAN trade out. It will be many years before the scenario you describe comes about.

 

[skier_pete]

Very true. However, all direct purchasers CAN trade out. It will be many years before the scenario you describe comes about.

Yes - you are correct - it's likely not an issue for at least 10 years. That doesn't mean it's never going to be an issue.

 

[katandmouse]

Here's the bjg problem with resale restrictions in my view. Every resort, even the most popular, has people that trade out of it. This has to happen to make rooms available to let people trade in. By having a resort that people can't trade out of, while people can trade into, you've upset that balance. And those buying resale will have to pounce on rooms at 11 months. So this restriction will in the end effect the direct buyer to a pretty severe degree. Admittedly we don't know what percent of resorts are owned by resale, but if resale ownership gets to say 25%, the restrictions will adversely affect all owners.

Very true. However, all direct purchasers CAN trade out. It will be many years before the scenario you describe comes about.

Yes - you are correct - it's likely not an issue for at least 10 years. That doesn't mean it's never going to be an issue.

I absolutely agree. I’m worried about this also, especially that it’s going to make booking/trading into the L14 more competitive/difficult. I’ve been trying to figure out when this would become an issue. The data we have is limited - but right now my guess is maybe 20 years (right around when the 2042 resorts expire, ha). Who knows what policies and restrictions DVC will implement in the meantime though.

 

[stewart715]

The restrictions are definitely a problem. Most of us take a lot of comfort in knowing that worst case scenario, if I plan a semi-last minute trip to WDW because I have friends/family going and want to join them, I will almost always be guaranteed a room at SSR or OKW. Or if I have some banked points left over for a UY, I can take a quick weekend trip to WDW if any of the resorts on property open up. That flexibility is certainly worth something and the resale price will reflect that. If I have Riviera resale points and I have some friends or relatives going in a couple months my options are going to likely be either don't go at all or pay for a cash room (something I really don't ever want to do after joining DVC).