8. It is no hardship for us to make FP+ reservations 60 days in advance. I usually have a rough idea what parks we are going to each day, even though we usually don't make more than 1 or 2 ADRs on a trip. Personally, I think anyone who regularly makes ADR's has already ceded the right to object to FP+ on the grounds that it requires you to plan every minute of every day. I think that argument is overdramatized anyway. If you follow our strategy, and use hoppers, we are not committed to where we start our day.
Your strategy (bolded) has been a good strategy, but I'm becoming increasingly concerned about how it's going to work going forward. The key is being able to book afternoon FP+'s. Plus, what's going to happen to RD.
Everyone who understands the system and wants to parkhop needs to reserve these. Meaning, afternoon reservations are going to be the most sought after when the 60 day reservation window opens. Conversely, they also need to be at the 1st park RD for standby riding only. FP+ reservations, however, are now starting at park opening.
If, Disney also holds back same day, in Park, FP+ reservations, RD becomes even more important to those who do not have FP+ reservations - same day tickets, off-site, tour groups, whatever.
What I'm getting at is:
1. Later FP's will become higher value commodity than early FP's (starting 60 days out)
2. RD will become a higher priority to a larger population - with FP+ return times also starting at park opening
6. You are clearly ignoring the possibility that there will be some FPs withheld for same day use. That issue has been discussed separately, and I will accept it for now. You are also ignoring the possibility of overbooking of FP+ to recognize the fact that some people who make reservations will end up not using them. I think it is inevitable that there will be at least some overbooking, and it could be significant based on Disney's analysis of what percentage of FP+ reservations are actually used.
Good point, but I think they have a solid handle on this with FP-and will use the same methodology for FP+. No need for us to overcomplicate it with an algorithim. The HUB had an excellent post on how they do this. They can go from a 4:1 ratio to 7:1 to 10:1 ratio of FP+ versus standby guests allowed in the ride. Remember, Disney doesn't as much care if you actually ride, they care that you're in the Park they planned for. If you're not riding, you're doing something else (like spending money). If the standby goes quicker, that's not a bad thing, from their perspective. Heck, with MM+, they can even see if you're in the park or not and can re-allocate the FP+ if you aren't (if they're to that point of sophistication).