All FP machines to be removed from Animal Kingdom by next week and....

[amylevan]

I have no idea where I read it. But since it is designed for EVERYONE, and we have had many reports on this board of people changing reservations for headliners last minute, I assume this to be the case.

Sigh. Does someone have to do the math again???

Also, being able to change reservations right now is not a good indication of the future. Not everyone is on the system yet!!!!

 

[KatieCharlotte]

I have no idea where I read it. But since it is designed for EVERYONE, and we have had many reports on this board of people changing reservations for headliners last minute, I assume this to be the case.

They were changing headliners at the last minute before they were traveling with many thousands of people who received zip drives designed to get them excited about FP+ and booklets w/ magnet FP+ reminders. Some people will still decline to learn or to book ahead, but things will change, dramatically, or Disney's market efforts are a failure. The only thing I have read from Disney is that they want to lock people in ahead of time. How many FP+ are they going to hold back when there aren't enough FP+ for certain rides for everyone trying to book ahead of time?

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Sigh. Does someone have to do the math again???

Also, being able to change reservations right now is not a good indication of the future. Not everyone is on the system yet!!!!

That's true. I guess we will start seeing next week.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

That's true. I guess we will start seeing next week.

Honestly, I don't think we'll really see until spring break ...see my last post.

 

[ajenks22]

I can't seem to find any updates to the original point of this post. Has it been confirmed that AK is removing traditional FP machines already? We are offsite guest next week, over Christmas.

 

[bcrook]

I'm all in favor of using math because I like to do it myself. But, I also like to make sure that those numbers are accurate and being applied correctly. So, a few questions and comments for you:

1. The average daily park attendance is close to what I have seen. From the way you posed it, it looks like you are just estimating how much above average the crowds are on a day when the park has a crowd level of 10 as opposed to a crowd level of 5. 40,000 seems to be as good a guess as any.

Park attendance at DAK is approximately 10,000,000 per year that comes out to 27,777 on average. I don't think 35,000 would be a 10. Probably more like a 7.

2. I do note that, according to Touring Plans, DAK isn't even predicted to have a crowd level of 10 over the Christmas holiday, when the overall resort crowd level is listed at a 10. It is well known that DAK is the least popular of the 4 parks, so it is likely to get less insanely crowded than the others, even at the busiest times.

I believe Hollywood Studios is the least attended park. And DAK is insanely crowded during peak times from 11:00 -3:00. After that it is a ghost town.

3. I would like to know where you are getting your ride and FP capacity numbers and how you are calculating them. I have been trying to figure ride capacity numbers using some information on Touring Plans and, using that, I estimated a total ride capacity for EE of 18,000 in 12 hours. The Hub has said that they generally figure 4 FP riders for each 1 standby, so if FP accounts for 80% of capacity, the total FP capacity would be a little higher than 11,500 in 12 hours. (Because DAK is generally open from 8AM-9PM over Christmas this year, that would add still a little more capacity).

4. Although the Safari has a similar hourly ride capacity, it is limited because it shuts down at dusk, which in December means it closes around 4:45. I am assuming that that is why you have given KS a lower FP capacity.

Well I have been collecting the ride capacities for a while now. They are from a wide range of sources. Even if my numbers are off a little, it doesn't matter that much. They are in the ballpark. DAK does have the least amount of attractions and the least capacity for FP. There isn't really an argument there. I think the 77,000 number pretty darn close.

Ride/ Theoretical hourly Ride Capacity/ operational Ride Capacity (90%) /Total and /70% FP distribution:
Expedition Everest 1800 1620 16200 11340
Kilimanjaro Safaris 1400 1260 12600 8820

both at 10 hours (you can deduct some more from KS because it closes earlier if you want).

Every single seat of the day is not filled. For every stoppage, Theoretical Capacity drops, every delay eats into the numbers.

5. I am willing to ignore Kali too because we only ride that on warm days and, even then, only when we are going to be returning to the resort right after we ride. I wouldn't expect to be riding it in December, though I am sure some people will do it and will choose FPs for it if they are available.

I included every single FP of Kali in my 77,000 estimate

6. You are clearly ignoring the possibility that there will be some FPs withheld for same day use. That issue has been discussed separately, and I will accept it for now. You are also ignoring the possibility of overbooking of FP+ to recognize the fact that some people who make reservations will end up not using them. I think it is inevitable that there will be at least some overbooking, and it could be significant based on Disney's analysis of what percentage of FP+ reservations are actually used.

I have brought that up in all my analyses. I agree, there will be overbooking to account for the no shows. That does give them a little leeway.

7. The numbers you are using illustrate the challenge of getting FP+ reservations for a popular attraction, but they also illustrate one of the weaknesses of FP-. If the total capacity of FPs at KS and EE is only 20,300, and the park attendance is 40,000, the average number of FPs per guest for those 2 attractions is only 0.5. In other words, under either system at least half of the guests aren't getting a FP for either attraction, and that number only goes down as more guests take 2 or more.

It does. I agree. One of the differences though is my previous post about how they are allocated now. There is a fundamental difference.

8. The points you are making about EE and KS could be applied (with slightly different numbers based on ride capacity, park attendance, and park hours) to Soarin and Test Track at Epcot and TSMM and RNRC at DHS. They illustrate why tiering is being put in place to allow more guests to get a FP for at least one of the most popular rides.

Yes. That is why tiering is there. And the people who say, I like FP+ but not with the tiering - there is no hope of a tierless WDW... until they build new attractions. The math doesn't work.

As for the 70% or 80% FP distribution. We have had this discussion before.
I have read that the FP distribution used to be 60% and now it is creeping to 70% - leading to longer to FP return line waits and longer standby waits.

As you inch that number up to 80% or 90% you are causing the FP line to grow longer and longer until you reach the point of 100% scheduled times.

And I can't wrap my head around this issue (I am sure somebody else can help).

Is FP distribution rate say 70% equal to the rate at which people are let in on rides? 4:1? 80%

For example if 70 percent of the fastpasses are allocated for the day, the amount of people actually getting on a ride from the fast pass side doesn't necessarily have to be 7 for every ten. The loading rate is based on a different set of circumstances.

 

[bcrook]

You make some very good points, but Disney has said that they have designed FP+ to be flexible so that you won't be locked into any park. You can change your reservations that morning, no problem. Otherwise, how would locals ever get on rides?

thank you.

Staggs did say in his original comments that it is designed to be flexible. It might be in MK. It can't be in Epcot, DHS or DAK (until the new lands are built in the next decade).

It is a first come first serve system. They will not be holding back day of slots. Lugnut has done a good job of explaining this.

At a Q&A session at D23 the Disney Rep said...

When asked about availability of same day Fastpass for high demand attractions, it was established that this is a concern. However, it was also explained that the system as currently set up is a first come, first serve system.
At this time, there will be no Fastpasses held back for same day availability.

This is better information than pure speculation.

 

[wisblue]

I think that might be an oversimplification. I actually tour very much like you and I share your strategy. My teen age children don't though.

And as for the bolded part. I think there has been just as much lamentations about the specter of battling for FP online in advance, dealing with glitchy technology, losing flexibility once at the parks, and for me - being locked into a schedule based on my FP+ selections even though I have a hopper and like to make decisions to wander the parks on the day of the playing. And you said in one of your points - this will be become more difficult during peak seasons (the only time I can visit) when everybody is on line.

This has nothing to do with me getting to ride Tower of Terror twice or three times with a fast pass.

Yeah, the comment about wanting more than the average guest is directed more at complaints about tiering and 3 FPs not being enough and doesn't realy apply if the issue is flexibility or planning in advance.

But, I never found that wandering the parks and making decisions on the fly works very well on those Level 10 days. In our experience, if you wanted a FP for one of those Big 2 attractions at Epcot or DHS you'd better have it by noon or earlier or you'd be out of luck. And, if you took one for a return time that was much later in the day, you've pretty much given away that flexibility to park hop.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Rasulo just said this week that the goal is to lock people into schedules, as early as possible. Not to keep things as flexible as possible.

Regardless, how much moving around you can do the day-of will depend on a lot of things...the crowds, the particular ride you are trying to move around, what other things you have to move around, etc etc.

What I noticed the week before TG was that things really tightened up about a week or ten days before. The day before...it became basically impossible to do any major re-scheduling because of all of the other moving parts.

I can see the new guidebooks writing themselves now..."The best plan is to book your schedule at 60 days out and plan on sticking with it."

 

[bcrook]

Yeah, the comment about wanting more than the average guest is directed more at complaints about tiering and 3 FPs not being enough and doesn't realy apply if the issue is flexibility or planning in advance.

But, I never found that wandering the parks and making decisions on the fly works very well on those Level 10 days. In our experience, if you wanted a FP for one of those Big 2 attractions at Epcot or DHS you'd better have it by noon or earlier or you'd be out of luck. And, if you took one for a return time that was much later in the day, you've pretty much given away that flexibility to park hop.

You are correct. I do love the idea of having a headliner in my back pocket for later in the day.

But even on those busy 7-8 days in late June, I could still wander into MK at 4:00 and grab a Peter pan for 10:00 return time. I could still pick up a Jungle cruise a little later. Now I can't even do that. If I burn my FP in DHS on TSMM and ToT at 1:00 during peak time, I can't even take advantage of the other lesser FP later at MK.

I don't see that ever working either for reasons I explained earlier. Fps are being given to everyone - so those slots will be given away to those unsuspecting guests or late bookers.

I do understand all of your points.

 

[going/again]

Kelly, some of these things can be improved as the MDE app improves. And, some of the things, like FP in more than one park, could also be implemented once the testing and rollout gets further along. Even if that happens, I would expect it to be subject to the same tiering as there would be for one park because of the numbers/capacity issue.

Can improve, could be implemented, is not going to help much over the next couple of weeks is it.

 

[wisblue]

He couldn't fathom why anyone would want to pick a ride and a time months before arrival.

There are a lot of people who can't fathom why anyone would want to go to WDW more than once every 10 years too. Or make ADRs 180 days in advance.

Or people (like me) who can't fathom why people would sit in a line for a few days to be one of the first to get the latest electronic device when they will be readily available in a few days or weeks.

 

[bcrook]

Rasulo just said this week that the goal is to lock people into schedules, as early as possible. Not to keep things as flexible as possible.

Regardless, how much moving around you can do the day-of will depend on a lot of things...the crowds, the particular ride you are trying to move around, what other things you have to move around, etc etc.

What I noticed the week before TG was that things really tightened up about a week or ten days before. The day before...it became basically impossible to do any major re-scheduling because of all of the other moving parts.

I can see the new guidebooks writing themselves now..."The best plan is to book your schedule at 60 days out and plan on sticking with it."

It would be difficult to lock in as many people as possible and provide on site same day flexibility without quite a few more rides (and they have to be better than the Little Mermaid - it is cute but not what is needed).

 

[wisblue]

Can improve, could be implemented, is not going to help much over the next couple of weeks is it.

True, but right now there hasn't been an issue with FPs being booked 60 days in advance and nothing available for same day changing either.

The discussion about capacity was really focused on what things will be like when everything is rolled out.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

When Rasulo said that, I have to think that he was generalizing. Disney has definitely planned, I think, to accommodate last minute changes and day guests.

 

[Missyrose]

When Rasulo said that, I have to think that he was generalizing. Disney has definitely planned, I think, to accommodate last minute changes and day guests.

Read the link from the D23 presentation and see if you still feel that way.

 

[bcrook]

True, but right now there hasn't been an issue with FPs being booked 60 days in advance and nothing available for same day changing either.

The discussion about capacity was really focused on what things will be like when everything is rolled out.

Yes, most of the discussion is about full roll out.

Currently we have three different castes:

lowest: Off Site guests - at times they arrive at the park being shut completely out of all headliners.

middle: guests at some of the values who can book 3 FP+ only in advance but not get any same day.

top: The country club - those that have 3 FP+ in advance, and same day access with little competition in advance for booking and a nice set of fresh possibilities in the morning to switch things up.

It is very nice to be in the country club set right now. Or at least has been since October. Things are changing fast. This DAK change will cut into the Country Club's fun limiting them to 3 like everyone else.

 

[bcrook]

Read the link from the D23 presentation and see if you still feel that way.

Can you tell I am a librarian? Obsessed with citing sources.

 

[Missyrose]

Can you tell I am a librarian? Obsessed with citing sources.

Hey, from this to a librarian, I appreciate it!

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

I understand what was said at the D23 expo, and as with every other thing said during testing, I take it with a grain of salt.