This is all interesting. Disney Animal Kingdom has the least amount of FP capacity of all four parks. A liberal estimate has a Grand Total of 77,000 total FP to distribute in a day.
Over 11,000 of those are for Kali - Do people ride that in December? I sure wouldn't do it.
It only takes about 25,000 guests to book every single slot for everything.
Average Attendance at DAK is about 28,000. So during the busy times 35,000-45,000?
Interesting that with NO tiers at this park, the limited numbers of FP will go much more quickly. With estimated total FP distribution for Expedition Everest at 11,500 and Kilimanjaro Safaris at 8800 - it only takes 11,500 to eat up all of those rides - approximately 1/4 of the population.
Off site guests waiting until the day of, would be deciding between using those FP+ on the Nemo show and Dinosaur I guess. I used mine in October on Tough to Be a Bug, Dinosaur and of course Kilimanjaro Safaris. Only the Safari was helpful.
I think in the future, Kilimanjaro Safaris will be one of the FP+ that books up way in advance. It is good for the entire family and always popular.
I'm all in favor of using math because I like to do it myself. But, I also like to make sure that those numbers are accurate and being applied correctly. So, a few questions and comments for you:
1. The average daily park attendance is close to what I have seen. From the way you posed it, it looks like you are just estimating how much above average the crowds are on a day when the park has a crowd level of 10 as opposed to a crowd level of 5. 40,000 seems to be as good a guess as any.
2. I do note that, according to Touring Plans, DAK isn't even predicted to have a crowd level of 10 over the Christmas holiday, when the overall resort crowd level is listed at a 10. It is well known that DAK is the least popular of the 4 parks, so it is likely to get less insanely crowded than the others, even at the busiest times.
3. I would like to know where you are getting your ride and FP capacity numbers and how you are calculating them. I have been trying to figure ride capacity numbers using some information on Touring Plans and, using that, I estimated a total ride capacity for EE of 18,000 in 12 hours. The Hub has said that they generally figure 4 FP riders for each 1 standby, so if FP accounts for 80% of capacity, the total FP capacity would be a little higher than 11,500 in 12 hours. (Because DAK is generally open from 8AM-9PM over Christmas this year, that would add still a little more capacity).
4. Although the Safari has a similar hourly ride capacity, it is limited because it shuts down at dusk, which in December means it closes around 4:45. I am assuming that that is why you have given KS a lower FP capacity.
5. I am willing to ignore Kali too because we only ride that on warm days and, even then, only when we are going to be returning to the resort right after we ride. I wouldn't expect to be riding it in December, though I am sure some people will do it and will choose FPs for it if they are available.
6. You are clearly ignoring the possibility that there will be some FPs withheld for same day use. That issue has been discussed separately, and I will accept it for now. You are also ignoring the possibility of overbooking of FP+ to recognize the fact that some people who make reservations will end up not using them. I think it is inevitable that there will be at least some overbooking, and it could be significant based on Disney's analysis of what percentage of FP+ reservations are actually used.
7. The numbers you are using illustrate the challenge of getting FP+ reservations for a popular attraction, but they also illustrate one of the weaknesses of FP-. If the total capacity of FPs at KS and EE is only 20,300, and the park attendance is 40,000, the average number of FPs per guest for those 2 attractions is only 0.5. In other words, under either system at least half of the guests aren't getting a FP for either attraction, and that number only goes down as more guests take 2 or more.
8. The points you are making about EE and KS could be applied (with slightly different numbers based on ride capacity, park attendance, and park hours) to Soarin and Test Track at Epcot and TSMM and RNRC at DHS. They illustrate why tiering is being put in place to allow more guests to get a FP for at least one of the most popular rides.
Now, I am going to explain (again and in more detail) why some people, including me, might think that FP+ is better for them than FP-, especially at these very busy times, without being (to use the words of one of your proponents) "willfully ignorant" of these numbers.
1. We always stay onsite, either using our DVC points or, while our daughter is still a CM, her CM discount for a value room. Those discounts are blocked out during the holidays so we will be using some of our DVC points in 2 weeks.
2. We like to arrive at the parks early and do as many things as possible. Between Christmas and New Year's DAK (like MK) has 7 AM EMH every day. So, if we start a day at DAK on our upcoming trip, we will be there at 7 AM.
3. We don't care if we ride things more than once in a day, and usually don't. Maybe we would ride EE twice, but if we do we would use single rider.
4. If we get to DAK at 7 AM, I am confident that we will be able to ride the Safari, EE, and Dinosaur well before 9 AM
without a FP. It has always worked that way before and I don't think FP+ will change things that much that early in the day. If and when it does, we will adapt. In a visit of 4 days or more, we can do a morning and an afternoon/evening in each park, and can use our FP+ to do whichever of the Big 2 we arent able to do at opening.
5. Once we get the major rides behind us, we are free to do whatever else we want to do in the park (other rides, FOTLK, walking the animal trails, or whatever) for the next few hours.
6. Because we have been up so early, we will be ready for an early lunch and then leave the park around or shortly after noon. We will spend the afternoon (when the parks are busiest) resting at our resort or (during Christmas) enjoying the decorations at some of the other resorts).
7. Properly rested, we will go to a park, usually a different one, to spend the evening. That is where we will gratefully use our 3 FP+ reservations to enjoy 3 things that we couldn't have done otherwise without long waits. Tiering or not, that is a big perk for us.
8. It is no hardship for us to make FP+ reservations 60 days in advance. I usually have a rough idea what parks we are going to each day, even though we usually don't make more than 1 or 2 ADRs on a trip. Personally, I think anyone who regularly makes ADR's has already ceded the right to object to FP+ on the grounds that it requires you to plan every minute of every day. I think that argument is overdramatized anyway. If you follow our strategy, and use hoppers, we are not committed to where we start our day. If the day comes when I cant even book certain FPs because they are booked up 60 days in advance, I will deal with that, either by changing my approach or reducing my visits to WDW. But, I will worry about that if and when the time comes.
9. I am not expecting to be able to change FPs same day or in the final days, even though that option has been available so far. I expect that flexibility to diminish in the future for busy times and popular attractions. But, I still see the possibility of changing, even to a lesser attraction, as a possible benefit that we didnt have when we didnt use a paper FP.
10. Maybe I'm being selfish to put our situation above that of the offsite guests who do not have access to FP+ (yet), guests who like to ride certain things multiple times in a day, guests who dont want to arrive at park opening, guests who dont want to decide ahead what park to go to, or guests who dont like to park hop. But, it seems to me that most of the people who are vehemently opposed to FP+ are doing that based on selfish reasons too. And that selfishness takes the form of wanting significantly more FPs for certain attractions than the average guest. Im just looking for my fair share. I should add that I dont need to hear all of the arguments again about how much fairer the old FP system was. I fully understand that it was better for some but not for others.
11. You might disagree with me, but I do object to being called willfully ignorant. Maybe I am the only person who tours and thinks this way but, from comments I've received, I dont think I am. Maybe instead of "willfully ignorant", you should call me shamefully selfish. And then look in the mirror.
Sorry for the length of this post, but I think it was necessary to clarify my thinking. I will now step aside and let you all tell me how crazy I am. I am getting used to it.
My arm is an ongoing thing since June but it is better than it was and for that I am grateful. Sitting here now with the heating pad to do my therapy.
