"Personally" I would not compare it to the full fare price, but what I would expect to get the flight for on a seat sale. Very few of us would travel full fare, so I would not do the math using full fare prices.
Of course that is a personal thing. Some people may have less flexible dates or need a ticket last minute, in which case flights become a better deal.
This is a good point, and one that I haven't really looked at since I moved. Based off of what I've heard from people, a *really* good price (ie seat sale) from YYT to MCO (mentioned in the original post) is about $650, taxes in. Based off of that, I get about 23 cents/mile.Still a good deal, imo. But yes, you definitely have to take seat sales into consideration if figuring this out.
I look at the airmiles cost then look up several flights on or near the same date. Then deduct what I would pay out of pocket for taxes, on the airmiles flight THEN do the math
You need to take the Out of Pocket Expense (Airmiles taxes ) off the seat sale price to figure out the deal, because you are paying that out of your pocket either way. But You KEEP the taxes in the seat sale price when you figure it out.
That gives you the net cost of what you are getting with the airmiles ticket vs what you "would" be paying if you booked it without airmiles.
The Difference in the 2 Costs ( airmiles just taxes or seatsale with taxes included) is the TRUE value of the miles as that is how much you would "save"
I'm pretty sure you just stated exactly what I did. I compared your math and mine, and they seem the same, so I'm not sure if you're correcting something I did wrong that I'm not seeing, or if you're just explaining.
This is an excellent post. You are especially correct about not comparing to a "regular" priced ticket. Airmiles will almost never give you a regular priced ticket. Their availability for flights varies hour by hour and day to day, and they will give you the cheapest possible ticket.
I called Airmiles repeatedly over a period of 3 days and the flight availabilty was different each time. They cannot book "any" flight for you; they only have certain seats to choose from-usually the least expensive. I tried repeatedly to get a seat on the only direct non-stop which still had many seats open (AND was showing available on the airline's award booking site- so award seats WERE available). Trouble was this was a $650 ticket before tax. The Airmiles rep explained that Airmiles basically purchases the seat on your behalf and won't purchase a seat above a certain threshhold. They would only give me flights that connected. I eventually settled for that and paid $135 and 2100 airmiles. I looked on expedia after and the flights I had were selling that day for $365. Of course they wouldn't give me a ticket for twice the price- why would they. They are a business.
Yeah, AirMiles is different than an airlines 'reward' program (like Aeroplan with Air Canada). Just because you can book something with Aeroplan, doesn't mean you can book with AirMiles, since AM isn't owned by the airlines, only partnered with.
AirMiles now does online booking for flights, and sometimes have several different flights to choose from. Usually, you can look these up on the respective airline websites, and thats what I base my cost off of, making sure that I'm comparing to the same flights. It's still a 'regular' priced ticket, it's just that you only have certain ones to choose from.
For example, for my dates, WestJet has 2 flights available, same price, but AirMiles only offers one of them. It's not so that one is cheaper than the other, it's just that's the one AirMiles happens to be booking (or happens to not be sold out of).
Another warning: I was offered insurance and declined. I ended up not using the ticket as my benevolent brother in law had Continental miles to burn and flew me down in First class non-stop

. I never got my airmiles back, or the taxes. I realize I didn't get insurance, but It would not have covered my scenario anyway. People need to be aware of this. This is another reason why I believe Airmiles is not good value for flights.
This would be just like any flight, even with flight insurance. Some airlines might give you a ceratin amount back, minus a change fee, but generally, unless you buy a full-fare ticket (an actual 'full-fare' ticket, not just a full price ticket) you can't change or cancel flights without penalty, even with
Trip Insurance. I don't see how this would affect the value of the AirMiles.