A little tidbit re: possible GFV development

[Scraper]

I am excited about this. we realy love GF.

 

[ospopo5]

thinking of it do you think that DVC would be putting in work on the Poly villas with Aulani now online? I know that they are on opposite ends of the earth and very different from each other, but I would think that by putting in Poly DVC villas at this time might take away from Aulani prospects?

So GF would seem more logically at this point in the process.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

I know I fall on the cheapskate end of DVC ownership with my resale 100 BWV points...but

I wouldn't give $175 per point for DVC in the Castle Suite!!!!


$90-$100 per point is as much as this cowgirl is willing to pay in today's dollars.

 

[TisBit]

You know that is great but why oh why can't it be the Poly. We love this resort and stayed there quite a bit until we became DVC members. We would add on in a heart beat if it was there. But it will not be at the Poly as long as they are selling the new Aulani DVC in Hawaii. My logic is it would be to similar and folks that would think about buying there would probably buy at the Poly instead...smjj

I wonder if there is some slick businees reasoning going on here. If I am not mistaken, the most popular of the monorail resorts were basically Poly, Grand Floridian and Contemporary....about in that order (in recent years, not talking historically, where Contemporary was THE landmark!).

They start with BLT at Contemporary and prices skyrocket (along with sales). They now move to the next most popular with GFV's, capitalizing on another great price increase as they draw in those passionate visitors to the Grand Floridian. Finally, they cap it off with the Poly....anyone who was on the fence are now going to be in....with another significant price increase for this premium property.

If they started with the Poly, it might not be such a draw to build BLT or Grand Floridian after that, especially with looking to increase the prices.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think that is exactly right. In particular, there were two locations where Disney *removed* cash rental rooms in favor of DVC units: AKL-Jambo, and Contemporary North Wing. Both of those resorts had the reputation of being the most deeply discounted/easiest to get before the conversion happened. Now, AKL is usually discounted less generously than other Deluxe-cateogory resorts, because there are fewer rooms...

 

[mjc2003]

I also don't see the inherent value in a 175 pp purchase. Call me crazy. If it's 200 points for a studio to start, we are talking $35,000 to get into a studio for one week? Tack on $50,000 in approximate dues for 50 years, and you are talking about 85k for a studio? When you can stay in a regular room once a year for the next 50 years for half the cost (comparable to a studio)? What about a 1 BR or 2 BR? People are going to spend $50,000-$60,000+ to get access to a 2 BR? Why?
More likely DVD will overvalue the points, it won't sell out for years and will still not be sold out when they move on to the next project. People will spend 175 pp and two years later they'll be available via resale for $100. There has to be a break even point where people say, "This isn't a good purchase..."....right? I read all the time about people putting together spreadsheets, and valuing their purchase. If you like GF so much, how does one justify not just getting a regular room over paying a kings ransom up front for access to a studio (realize too that if you spend all that money on GFV points you won't often want to stay elsewhere).
I think the 7 month window is going to be the more likely route for GFV bookings.

I don't know, I'm sort of a skeptic.

 

[Golden Rose]

It's interesting watching the very different opinions being voiced about the very possible GFV... We're in the very excited, and will almost certainly buy category.

We're a family who used to stay club level at either the GF, BC, or BWI prior to buying DVC. Basically, once club level became an option, we used it every time. We traveled (and still travel) often with my DM, who enjoys WDW, but not alone, so at least every other trip we needed two club level rooms or a suite. We put off buying DVC for years, and I researched it pretty solidly for a year and a half before we bought. We knew DVC would save us money, but we were extremely worried that it would feel like a big step down from club level. Three years into our ownership, I can safely say that while we do miss some of the amenities and convenience of club level, we love our DVC and are very happy owners. (We haven't even been willing to go for club level at AKV, because not being able to see the savannah from our room would devastate our son.) We like always having the extra space - unless we're just adding on a night or two, we always get a one bedroom or a two bedroom villa. We stock wine and our preferred snacks in the room, and treat it like our own club level lounge.

Let's play with the numbers. Bear with me, this will get pretty complicated. If basic studios are really 200 points for a week, which would actually surprise me, you're right, and GFV really wouldn't be a good deal. On the other hand, if the point chart is pretty similar to BLT, and you're looking at about 60 points a night for a two bedroom villa, the two bedroom suites at GF are currently priced at something like $1800 a night. The one bedroom suites are about $1000. If you're like us, and want to rotate through a few different resorts (DS adores AKL, and we love staying at Epcot resorts during F & W), you probably want enough points to stay there every other year. We stay 5 or 6 nights on our vacations usually, so lets call it a 300 point stay. We'd need 150 GFV points to do it every other year. At a $175 buy in, that would be $26,250. Let's say that 150 points runs me $1000 in dues a year, which I think is a very high estimate, but we'll assume some inflation. I'm going to assume I can find a discount code for 30% off rack rate, since even if I find a better one, I'm still paying those high hotel taxes. So we're down to $1260 a night. It would take me 21 nights in a 2 bedroom to roughly break even on the purchase price, and in the time it would take me to get to 21 nights, we might have paid as much as $7000 in dues since we're only using it every other year in this scenario. (I'm calculating that out by saying that would take us 4 years of trips, spending 5 nights for 3 trips and 6 nights for 1, which is pretty typical of our vacation habits. Since we'd only be going every other year to GFV, it would take us 7 years to get those 4 trips.) So call it one more trip, which would mean 9 years (and another $2000 in dues, which pushes us slightly into the trip in year 11), to get to the point where what we're paying in dues for each two year period is covering a stay at GFV. This doesn't strike me as at all unreasonable. Yes, we reached that point earlier on both of our current contracts, but we got developer points with AKV when we bought direct, and we got a fully loaded BWV contract resale, with an entire years' worth of banked points. If they run some sort of deals for buying GFV, the break even on the purchase price could come earlier. I know I made a lot of assumptions when calculanlting my figures, and I may be way, way off. But even assuming $175 a point, and a point chart that is roughly 60 a night for a 2 bedroom, particularly a club level 2 bedroom, it wouldn't be a bad deal at all for someone who might well be staying at the GF in club level anyway.

We're almost certain to buy if that really is going to be GFV. We've gone back and forth about BLT. I love the location, but am not wild about the style. If they really do a GFV, that solves the problem for us, and we'll probably be very happy owners there within a year of it becoming available.

 

[Sammie]

I don't see the GFVs having any problem attracting new members from loyal GF fans, and some addons from current members I know it will certainly tempt me.

 

[disneychic]

First - this is a great post! Thanks to the OP for sharing this interesting info

Second - I would be among those tempted to do an add on -- however if it really is close to $175 per point I'd pass and do an add on at a different resort

 

[Lexxiefern]

Wonderful news!! Thanks for posting it

 

[dbprimeaux]

I would sure be interested!!! We love GF!!!

 

[erikawolf2004]

Where are people getting the $175 a point for GFV and 200 points for a studio for a week?

 

[wdrl]

Where are people getting the $175 a point for GFV and 200 points for a studio for a week?

It is simply idle speculation. At this time, there is no concrete evidence to confirm that Disney is actually building a DVC component adjacent to the Wedding Pavilion on Seven Seas Lagoon, much less evidence that shows what the cost per point or point chart might be if such a resort is built.

MousePlanet's report, which was the genesis of this thread, was a tad misleading when it said there was a Notice of Commencement filed with Orange County for a "trailer compound for Grand Floridian Villas project." The actual wording of the Notice of Commencement was for a trailer compound for Project 2011-1, which may or may not have anything to do with the DVC.

Since we are not encumbered by any hard facts or figures, our imaginations are given free rein to speculate on what a Villas at Grand Floridian might cost.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Where are people getting the $175 a point for GFV and 200 points for a studio for a week?

As for the $175 ~ I think that is a rough estimate using current BLT pricing. I got a notice stating that BLT pricing would be going to $140 soon.

I think $175 is a little high...but have been amazed at how much DVC has raised prices over the years...and unfortunately see GFV going for that by the time it sells out.

As for the 200 points for a studio...I have no idea.

 

[mjc2003]

It's interesting watching the very different opinions being voiced about the very possible GFV... We're in the very excited, and will almost certainly buy category.

We're a family who used to stay club level at either the GF, BC, or BWI prior to buying DVC. Basically, once club level became an option, we used it every time. We traveled (and still travel) often with my DM, who enjoys WDW, but not alone, so at least every other trip we needed two club level rooms or a suite. We put off buying DVC for years, and I researched it pretty solidly for a year and a half before we bought. We knew DVC would save us money, but we were extremely worried that it would feel like a big step down from club level. Three years into our ownership, I can safely say that while we do miss some of the amenities and convenience of club level, we love our DVC and are very happy owners. (We haven't even been willing to go for club level at AKV, because not being able to see the savannah from our room would devastate our son.) We like always having the extra space - unless we're just adding on a night or two, we always get a one bedroom or a two bedroom villa. We stock wine and our preferred snacks in the room, and treat it like our own club level lounge.

Let's play with the numbers. Bear with me, this will get pretty complicated. If basic studios are really 200 points for a week, which would actually surprise me, you're right, and GFV really wouldn't be a good deal. On the other hand, if the point chart is pretty similar to BLT, and you're looking at about 60 points a night for a two bedroom villa, the two bedroom suites at GF are currently priced at something like $1800 a night. The one bedroom suites are about $1000. If you're like us, and want to rotate through a few different resorts (DS adores AKL, and we love staying at Epcot resorts during F & W), you probably want enough points to stay there every other year. We stay 5 or 6 nights on our vacations usually, so lets call it a 300 point stay. We'd need 150 GFV points to do it every other year. At a $175 buy in, that would be $26,250. Let's say that 150 points runs me $1000 in dues a year, which I think is a very high estimate, but we'll assume some inflation. I'm going to assume I can find a discount code for 30% off rack rate, since even if I find a better one, I'm still paying those high hotel taxes. So we're down to $1260 a night. It would take me 21 nights in a 2 bedroom to roughly break even on the purchase price, and in the time it would take me to get to 21 nights, we might have paid as much as $7000 in dues since we're only using it every other year in this scenario. (I'm calculating that out by saying that would take us 4 years of trips, spending 5 nights for 3 trips and 6 nights for 1, which is pretty typical of our vacation habits. Since we'd only be going every other year to GFV, it would take us 7 years to get those 4 trips.) So call it one more trip, which would mean 9 years (and another $2000 in dues, which pushes us slightly into the trip in year 11), to get to the point where what we're paying in dues for each two year period is covering a stay at GFV. This doesn't strike me as at all unreasonable. Yes, we reached that point earlier on both of our current contracts, but we got developer points with AKV when we bought direct, and we got a fully loaded BWV contract resale, with an entire years' worth of banked points. If they run some sort of deals for buying GFV, the break even on the purchase price could come earlier. I know I made a lot of assumptions when calculanlting my figures, and I may be way, way off. But even assuming $175 a point, and a point chart that is roughly 60 a night for a 2 bedroom, particularly a club level 2 bedroom, it wouldn't be a bad deal at all for someone who might well be staying at the GF in club level anyway.

We're almost certain to buy if that really is going to be GFV. We've gone back and forth about BLT. I love the location, but am not wild about the style. If they really do a GFV, that solves the problem for us, and we'll probably be very happy owners there within a year of it becoming available.

I think you make some great points. I still don't see the value for a studio, though, versus a regular garden view room. Also, I think the building would be smaller than BLT and more points per night, but that's pure speculation. I will say this: The mantra of many DVC'ers is "we get to stay in accommodations we wouldn't normally pay for". So, are there really that many people who would pay those prices for 2 BR suites? Maybe once or twice, but not regularly. Point being, people get 2 BR villas b/c they can "afford" them with points, but cash-wise, not so much.
So while you may look at it and say, "we'd pay cash for a 2 BR suite every other year", I think most people would not.
Obviously the market will dictate this. If they price them too high, it won't sell and they will run specials or promotions that might be more effective...and I have no doubt that it will be a hot ticket.

I would be more inclined to get 3x the points ($50 at BWV, for example) vs paying $175 for GFV. I'm sure at some point I could use all those cheaper points to stay at GFV anyway, we are usually very flexible travel wise. Of course maybe not in the first 2 years, but at some point we'll get in....

 

[mjc2003]

I think $175 is a little high...

But if they price it a little high, that gives them wiggle room to sell at a "reduced promotional rate" of only $165!!! Hurry!!!!

 

[Laurabearz]

How fun!

DVC with two monorail resorts!

 

[Snurk71]

If they complete a GF within the next couple of years I don't think the price will be over $150 - probably less with incentives. Does no one remember the pricing of BLT and VGC early on? I'm pretty sure we got both for under $100/pt with incentives (same for the add-on a year later). So I predict we'll add on at GF for around $130/pt if it comes on in a couple of years (and yes, we will be one of the firsts with our wallets open).

I do think they will jack the points a bit for stays - 20 on the low end up to a high of 30/night depending on season/view for a studio.

 

[ericamcl]

if they really build at GF I think DH and I will definitely add on there....
we currently own at OKW and AKV - we went back and forth on BLT, but as one PP also said, I'm not wild about the design - but I love the location. GF will cover location and design for me

 

[Chic]

Where are people getting the $175 a point for GFV and 200 points for a studio for a week?

This probably came from the same person who said that BLT would open sales at $180 a point and would sell out in 30 days. Guess what? They were wrong!