5/24/24, PVB association license amendment (5/30/24 updated to Approved)…confirmed adding tower weeks

[MerlinandtheMouse]

And that’s what makes me want to wait for the new poly tower, I like the location of Riviera but I don’t want to be stuck if I have to sell…..

I’m not opposed to the location of the Poly and from what I understand the points at the Poly are very easy to find renters for

You likely won’t be stuck either way (definitely buy smaller contracts if possible) but no matter which you choose, if you go direct you will likely always “lose” about half of the initial cost of the contract. RIV a bit more if you really need to sell quickly and need to price more aggressively.

I think if Poly starts at $239, you can probably sell it in 5years in the $140s. With RIV starting at $225, I’d say smaller contracts will still go for $110-120, maybe $100 if you want an immediate sell. But know one really knows what the resale market will look like in the future, so Poly is the safer bet, even if it ends up being a marginal difference.

 

[muppets3d]

I couldn’t get a VGF deluxe studio for a day I wanted in May 2025 at the 11 month mark on the actual day booking opened because I waited until the evening to book. guess ya gotta jump on at 8 am . I ended up taking a longhouse because those were wide open and I have a Poly contract. I’ll see if I can modify it in the future to a tower room.

People are walking the standard studios at Riviera for May 2025 as well, so I'm not sure you can blame BPK.

 

[hockeydad21]

And that’s what makes me want to wait for the new poly tower, I like the location of Riviera but I don’t want to be stuck if I have to sell…..

I’m not opposed to the location of the Poly and from what I understand the points at the Poly are very easy to find renters for

That’s exactly why I won’t buy riv. I love everything about Riv except for the restrictions. It’s beautiful, the food options are great, skyliner is great, and the pools are great, but at the end of the day I won’t buy a resort where I know I’m gonna take a significantly larger financial hit if I have to sell. At least not while other non-restricted resorts are still being sold direct and resale. It just doesn’t make much sense to me as someone who likes to hedge their investments (yes, even a timeshare investment) worst case scenario.

 

[muppets3d]

That’s exactly why I won’t buy riv. I love everything about Riv except for the restrictions. It’s beautiful, the food options are great, skyliner is great, and the pools are great, but at the end of the day I won’t buy a resort where I know I’m gonna take a significantly larger financial hit if I have to sell. At least not while other non-restricted resorts are still being sold direct and resale. It just doesn’t make much sense to me as someone who likes to hedge their investments (yes, even a timeshare investment) worst case scenario.

Frankly if you are considering selling your points in the future you shouldn't be buying any DVC direct contracts in any case because at today's prices you won't ever come out ahead versus a comparable resale contract. Possible exception for the occasional firesale.

 

[Sandisw]

People are walking the standard studios at Riviera for May 2025 as well, so I'm not sure you can blame BPK.

That is true but deluxe studios at VGF are harder now for many times of the year than in the past. So, while they were never easy, like RIV SV studios have never been easy, since the resort studios opened, those who want deluxe studios, especially SV, need to do it right at 8 am and can no longer wait until later in the day.

So, its definitely changed the booking patterns. The only good part is that those who are okay with resort studios (we are not) or those that want a studio and don't own there, they have a better chance for getting into the resort.

 

[EYL]

But know one really knows what the resale market will look like in the future.

This is the key. No one knows what the resale market will look like in the future. But when people make their personal predictions, they are only seeing RIV, DLR and CFW as the only restricted resorts when the reality is that ALL resorts are now restricted. You might be valuing PVB and RIV correctly for 5 years later. But in 18 years when resorts start expiring, the "O14" then becomes "O9", and 2 of them are not in WDW. At that time, what will PVB be worth? How about RIV?

I'm only mentioning this as a reminder to all that all resale points are now restricted in one form or another. 5 to 10 year predictions may be accurate, but if you plan to own forever. Don't forget that the value prediction comes with a lot more uncertainties...

 

[aammtt20]

This is the key. No one knows what the resale market will look like in the future. But when people make their personal predictions, they are only seeing RIV, DLR and CFW as the only restricted resorts when the reality is that ALL resorts are now restricted. You might be valuing PVB and RIV correctly for 5 years later. But in 18 years when resorts start expiring, the "O14" then becomes "O9", and 2 of them are not in WDW. At that time, what will PVB be worth? How about RIV?

I'm only mentioning this as a reminder to all that all resale points are now restricted in one form or another. 5 to 10 year predictions may be accurate, but if you plan to own forever. Don't forget that the value prediction comes with a lot more uncertainties...

Good points. I own resale at CCV (well, still waiting for the contract to appear, but the deed is recorded at least) and that's something I've thought about, that at the end of its term when I'm in my late 70's, it'll be restricted to just that one resort for the final few years, after losing access to different resorts in the years leading up to that. Which is fine by me, but I'm curious to see how both resale prices and booking patterns change as resorts end their terms and then (I assume) eventually reopen under new contracts with the resale restrictions.

 

[muppets3d]

Good points. I own resale at CCV (well, still waiting for the contract to appear, but the deed is recorded at least) and that's something I've thought about, that at the end of its term when I'm in my late 70's, it'll be restricted to just that one resort for the final few years, after losing access to different resorts in the years leading up to that. Which is fine by me, but I'm curious to see how both resale prices and booking patterns change as resorts end their terms and then (I assume) eventually reopen under new contracts with the resale restrictions.

Watch this space in roughly 19 years

 

[JackosinDIS]

Good points. I own resale at CCV (well, still waiting for the contract to appear, but the deed is recorded at least) and that's something I've thought about, that at the end of its term when I'm in my late 70's, it'll be restricted to just that one resort for the final few years, after losing access to different resorts in the years leading up to that. Which is fine by me, but I'm curious to see how both resale prices and booking patterns change as resorts end their terms and then (I assume) eventually reopen under new contracts with the resale restrictions.

You’re right it will be restricted to CCV only, but it will also (likely) have the lowest points chart on property and for that reason, I suspect, will be very popular.

 

[Sandisw]

This is the key. No one knows what the resale market will look like in the future. But when people make their personal predictions, they are only seeing RIV, DLR and CFW as the only restricted resorts when the reality is that ALL resorts are now restricted. You might be valuing PVB and RIV correctly for 5 years later. But in 18 years when resorts start expiring, the "O14" then becomes "O9", and 2 of them are not in WDW. At that time, what will PVB be worth? How about RIV?

I'm only mentioning this as a reminder to all that all resale points are now restricted in one form or another. 5 to 10 year predictions may be accurate, but if you plan to own forever. Don't forget that the value prediction comes with a lot more uncertainties...

To add to this, the market can ebb and flow and if someone bought SSR resale two years ago and needed to sell now for an unforeseen reason, they would take about a $30 loss right now , not counting the commission.

Yes, RIV may not be worth as much as some of the others, but since things can happen, if selling because of an issue, even a resale purchase can lose money.

 

[Royal Consort]

I have no idea what the resale price will be in the future. Nobody does. What I will note is that Polynesian has just received a mass injection of inventory and those additional points will eventually make their way to the resale market. With Poly now being the second biggest DVC resort it would not be difficult to find contracts on resale in the future due to likely supply.

 

[hockeydad21]

Frankly if you are considering selling your points in the future you shouldn't be buying any DVC direct contracts in any case because at today's prices you won't ever come out ahead versus a comparable resale contract. Possible exception for the occasional firesale.

To add to this, the market can ebb and flow and if someone bought SSR resale two years ago and needed to sell now for an unforeseen reason, they would take about a $30 loss right now , not counting the commission.

Yes, RIV may not be worth as much as some of the others, but since things can happen, if selling because of an issue, even a resale purchase can lose money.

Exactly Sandisw. While I’m not planning on making money off of it, the point is I’m far more likely not lose as much by buying an unrestricted resort if for whatever unforeseen reason(s) I do have to sell.

It’s not at all about “coming out ahead” as muppet said

 

[intamin]

I have no idea what the resale price will be in the future. Nobody does. What I will note is that Polynesian has just received a mass injection of inventory and those additional points will eventually make their way to the resale market. With Poly now being the second biggest DVC resort it would not be difficult to find contracts on resale in the future due to likely supply.

Yep we saw VGF's resale price drop from the 200-250s down to 150s after direct sales and it's still hanging out there after being sold out for the past 7 months. Poly's was in the 130s before Island Tower was announced.. I have no idea where it'll end up but I imagine it'll stay around the same as it was before but /shrug.

 

[muppets3d]

Exactly Sandisw. While I’m not planning on making money off of it, the point is I’m far more likely not lose as much by buying an unrestricted resort if for whatever unforeseen I do have to sell.

It’s not at all about “coming out ahead” as muppet said

I don't think you can really go wrong with either resort obviously and I don't have a dog in this hunt - it obviously makes no difference to me where you buy.

I see a lot of anxiety here and on social media about Riviera's resale restrictions and I just don't get it. Resale is so volatile, especially now that ROFR seems to be basically a thing of the past.

I know the unthinkable could happen to any of us and we'd be forced to liquidate things we had no intention of ever selling. But reselling my points just doesn't figure into my purchase or use of DVC. Each to their own!

 

[intamin]

This is the key. No one knows what the resale market will look like in the future. But when people make their personal predictions, they are only seeing RIV, DLR and CFW as the only restricted resorts when the reality is that ALL resorts are now restricted. You might be valuing PVB and RIV correctly for 5 years later. But in 18 years when resorts start expiring, the "O14" then becomes "O9", and 2 of them are not in WDW. At that time, what will PVB be worth? How about RIV?

I'm only mentioning this as a reminder to all that all resale points are now restricted in one form or another. 5 to 10 year predictions may be accurate, but if you plan to own forever. Don't forget that the value prediction comes with a lot more uncertainties...

100%. The only thing that is guaranteed when buying into a resort is you will have the opportunity to book your home resort and that's it. That's personally why I don't believe in buying pure SAP where people hate the home resort and just try to switch at 7 months. SAP+ sure but I'd have no problem using my points ONLY at their respective home resorts until they expire.

 

[CastAStone]

I have no idea what the resale price will be in the future. Nobody does. What I will note is that Polynesian has just received a mass injection of inventory and those additional points will eventually make their way to the resale market. With Poly now being the second biggest DVC resort it would not be difficult to find contracts on resale in the future due to likely supply.

Bingo. The broader market might go up so the price might go up, but Poly will now be cheaper relative to the rest of the resorts than it was before, simply because there’s going to be so much more supply.

Same reason the eggs all got cheaper last year after all the birds stopped dying.

 

[Sandisw]

Exactly Sandisw. While I’m not planning on making money off of it, the point is I’m far more likely not lose as much by buying an unrestricted resort if for whatever unforeseen reason(s) I do have to sell.

It’s not at all about “coming out ahead” as muppet said

And, I think your point is important in the sense that if one has no real preference between a restricted and non restricted resort, and would be satisfied with either, then using potential resale value as the deciding factor makes sense.

However, if one prefers RIV over PVB tower and is only going with the unrestricted one because of potential resale value, that might not make the best sense because you are spending a lot of money to get your second choice for something that may or may not turn out the way you think it will.

 

[mkatsy]

100%. The only thing that is guaranteed when buying into a resort is you will have the opportunity to book your home resort and that's it. That's personally why I don't believe in buying pure SAP where people hate the home resort and just try to switch at 7 months. SAP+ sure but I'd have no problem using my points ONLY at their respective home resorts until they expire.

If the tower point chart is rough, the competition for the longhouses is going to turn my Poly contract into SAP

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If the tower point chart is rough, the competition for the longhouses is going to turn my Poly contract into SAP

I also think if the point chart is high and they don’t have enough infrastructure to support the additional guests without the resort and monorail feeling even more crowded, PVB resale could return below $150 within a year, and be even lower than that by the end of 2025. I would pay more for PVB resale than RIV because there are many places I could use it, but I would pay less than VGF, BLT, or maybe even AKV (hot take, I know, but I love the Savanna and the restaurants).