4 month advantage at home resort shortened

[joepoe]

what would happen to SSRS sales &DVC Resales/BCV,etc

if DVC reduced the 4 month advantage at your home resort from
4 months to 3 months or even 1 month

Please do not post, this is unlikely to happen. I agree.

The intent of this thread, is to see,
what we think would happen to the Resale market,
if BCV owners, only had a 1 month or 2 month advantage
over non bcv owners, for booking at BCV.

I think the bottom line is they would still have a one month advantage, so not much would change.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I think the bottom line is they would still have a one month advantage, so not much would change.

so 1 month is equivilant to 4 months? What about everyone who doesnt book at 11 months out?

 

[Dean]

Wow, if posters can't go any farther using one way to bash BCV, they scrounge around until they find another one! Many posts on this subject seem to be discussing 11/7, comparative value or ROFR, but underneath there's a pungent current of "Let's stomp on BCV again."

I think the main change would be that those that plan just above the 7 month window would migrate to making reservations before they are opened to all of DVC. It won't change that much other than those than can plan by 7 month but can't at 10 months. So I guess I'm in between. It wouldn't be catastrophic though. It would hurt owners at that resort slightly and help owners a little who wanted to stay at another resort.

I was shocked how high DVC/VERO BEACH annual dues are!!

I would think this will really hurt their resale value in later years,
plus not a onsite DVC REsort

A new resort should always have lower dues. All they have to do in this situation is pay a portion of the management and transportation, cover day to day issues and build a reserve fund. No refurbishment to speak of. Frankly, I think SSR dues should be lower than they are and lower than OKW. Still, the basic set up should be cheaper to maintain than OKW or HH so we shall see.

 

[erikthewise]

It could have the opposite result. With only a month before it opens up to the general member population, rooms at a place like BCV may book even faster. BCV and VWL in particular might begin to appeal particularly to people who really want the resort, aren't planning to switch, and take the same vacation each year. After all, booking 11 months in advance isn't a problem if you always go for the same week in early December.

But it IS a problem! To remember to do it just 3 weeks after getting back, when the holidays have just ended, the suitcases haven't been put away yet, and you still haven't finished your trip report! Yet somehow I manage to it 11 months to the day (as I suspect Crisi does).

 

[kathleena]

It could have the opposite result. With only a month before it opens up to the general member population, rooms at a place like BCV may book even faster. BCV and VWL in particular might begin to appeal particularly to people who really want the resort, aren't planning to switch, and take the same vacation each year. After all, booking 11 months in advance isn't a problem if you always go for the same week in early December.

I agree with Crisi. I think it would make the BCV points even more sought after. I think the owners would book earlier - being concerned that they only have one month to do it. And that they would be making ressies that they may never use just to hold them in case and let them go later.

And then at the 10 months with everyone involved, I think the inventory would be taken up very fast.

JMHO

 

[jarestel]

certainly dont see the reasonong behind this. what do yo mean those between the 7-10 window would adjust and book accordingly. maybe they dont plan their vacations 11 months in advance, thats probably an aweful lot of people you are talking about.

with the 11-7 month windows you could book at you home resort at 11 months out , 10 months , 9 months etc without having to worry about other resort members booking your potential room.

If that changed to a 11-10 month window now you have 1 month to get that reservation in. You are losing 3 months of priority booking time, couple that with the problem of now everyone would be calling within that 1 month window instead of spreading their calls out within a 4 month period and you have big differences.

Regardless of whether home resort owners book at 7+ to 11 months, or they all book at 11 months, the same number of rooms are already booked by the time the free for all window opens. That's what I mean by adjusting. It doesn't matter if all of those calls happen in 1 month or 3. For those who "think" they can't plan at 11 months, but 8 months is no problem, they'll either become better planners or compete with everyone else when the open reservations window opens. So again, no real difference except the perception that booking time has been "taken away".

As the OP said, it's not likely to happen, but I believe if it did most of us would be able to cope quite nicely.

 

[FLYNZ4]

what would happen to SSRS sales &DVC Resales/BCV,etc

if DVC reduced the 4 month advantage at your home resort from
4 months to 3 months or even 1 month

Please do not post, this is unlikely to happen. I agree.

The intent of this thread, is to see,
what we think would happen to the Resale market,
if BCV owners, only had a 1 month or 2 month advantage
over non bcv owners, for booking at BCV.

I have a follow-on question.

Once again... hypothetically: What would happen to SSRS sales & DVC Resales/BCV,etc if DVC reduced the 4 month advantage at your home resort from 4 months to 0 months... so that every DVC owner could book any resort at the same time?

Once again... this is a hypothetical example only... and I would be the first to agree that it wont happen... so lets just debate this as a theoritical possibility.

/Jim

 

[RobDoc]

I have a follow-on question.

Once again... hypothetically: What would happen to SSRS sales & DVC Resales/BCV,etc if DVC reduced the 4 month advantage at your home resort from 4 months to 0 months... so that every DVC owner could book any resort at the same time?

Once again... this is a hypothetical example only... and I would be the first to agree that it wont happen... so lets just debate this as a theoritical possibility.

/Jim

It's fine to debate the concept, but it is NOT a theoretical possibility since our documents guarantee owners at least a one month home resort reservation priority. The "window" cannot be greater than 10 months for members of other resorts and owners are guaranteed the opportunity to reserve at 11 months.

The priority could be reduced from the present 4 months to 1 month, but cannot be removed entirely.

 

[rocketriter]

If you folks don't hear BCV bashing in this thread, then I will defer to your judgement and withdraw my comment. I suspect that I'm just sensitized by some stuff that has gone on in the past.

 

[Beca]

If you folks don't hear BCV bashing in this thread, then I will defer to your judgement and withdraw my comment. I suspect that I'm just sensitized by some stuff that has gone on in the past.

Hey, no problem...you're right BCV has certainly had its share of "bashing" in the past...but, it doesn't seem to have hurt resale prices too badly .



Beca

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Regardless of whether home resort owners book at 7+ to 11 months, or they all book at 11 months, the same number of rooms are already booked by the time the free for all window opens. That's what I mean by adjusting. It doesn't matter if all of those calls happen in 1 month or 3. For those who "think" they can't plan at 11 months, but 8 months is no problem, they'll either become better planners or compete with everyone else when the open reservations window opens. So again, no real difference except the perception that booking time has been "taken away".

As the OP said, it's not likely to happen, but I believe if it did most of us would be able to cope quite nicely.

i still completely disagree. There is absolutely zero chance the same number of rooms will be booked at the non-home member window. No way every person who normally books between 11 months and 7 months will then book between 11 months and 10 months. Just wont happen.

Its not about becoming better planners, some peoples lifestyles just dont allow them to plan at 11 months.

 

[Blue&Gold]

I believe any reduction in the home resort "advantage" will have measureable effect on resales... I say that because we are in the process of buying a BWV resale specifically due to the old real estate crutch "location, location, location." Almost no other way to rationalize the prices of the older resorts with the going rate at SSR otherwise. Reducing the advantage window would effectively normalize all resorts into a single booking pool, and impact resale values similarly. This would also undercut Disney's ability to control add-on prices as well, and those must be a notable source of cash flow. After all, what could be better for them than to sell the same "property" many times over the life of the lease?
I would be interested to hear from owners who have been with the Club since inception---is there precedent for Disney adjusting the booking window advantage? Has it been done once? Twice? Never? I think that the DVC would take a significant "integrity" hit if they modified these windows, even though they may be legally entitled to do so.

 

[Dean]

I have a follow-on question.

Once again... hypothetically: What would happen to SSRS sales & DVC Resales/BCV,etc if DVC reduced the 4 month advantage at your home resort from 4 months to 0 months... so that every DVC owner could book any resort at the same time?

Once again... this is a hypothetical example only... and I would be the first to agree that it wont happen... so lets just debate this as a theoritical possibility.

/Jim

I'll disagree with Doc only slightly. It is in the POS but it could be changed by a vote of the actual members, I think it's 60% but would have to check to be certain. So it could theoretically change to less than a month priority but would take some legal changes.

And yes, there will be a shift of the number of home resort members that book if it were changed to 1 month priority instead of 4. For sake of discussion assume that 90% of the units are booked at the "destination" resorts like BWV, BCV and VWL when the 7 month window opens but currently only an average of 60% are booked at 10 months out. If the priority were only one month, something like 85% would be booked after a month and essentially 100% at 7 months out during the busier times. The highest demand times would be even wore booked up by the time the other non owners had a crack at reservations.

 

[tjkraz]

This would also undercut Disney's ability to control add-on prices as well, and those must be a notable source of cash flow. After all, what could be better for them than to sell the same "property" many times over the life of the lease?

I think you might be overestimating the addtional cash flow generated by ROFR. I've seen DVC exercising ROFR on BCV contracts in the $77+ range lately. Add closing costs and maintenance fees (if current year points are available) and DVC is paying in the neighborhood of $82-83 per point to reacquire. They then are selling for $89. That's revenue of only $6-7 per point, much of which will go toward administrative and legal fees for closing on the points again with the new owner.

The actual profit is greatly dependent upon how the points might be distributed. For example, if they ROFR a 300-pt contract there would be fewer costs involved if a current owner wants all 300 pts vs. breaking it into as many as twelve 25-pt blocks. In the latter example, you have 12 contracts, 12 filing fees, 12 closings, etc.

Also, many of the older resorts had lower profit margins in the initial sale than with the current Saratoga Springs resort.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

I don't see any advantage to Disney to reducing the window. However if it did go down to one month I could see the location bonus suffering a bit.

Is there any advantage to going the other way? Say....10 months? Advantage for Disney not the members that is... Would that give CRO a better crack at the rooms?

 

[FLYNZ4]

I'll disagree with Doc only slightly. It is in the POS but it could be changed by a vote of the actual members, I think it's 60% but would have to check to be certain. So it could theoretically change to less than a month priority but would take some legal changes.

And yes, there will be a shift of the number of home resort members that book if it were changed to 1 month priority instead of 4. For sake of discussion assume that 90% of the units are booked at the "destination" resorts like BWV, BCV and VWL when the 7 month window opens but currently only an average of 60% are booked at 10 months out. If the priority were only one month, something like 85% would be booked after a month and essentially 100% at 7 months out during the busier times. The highest demand times would be even wore booked up by the time the other non owners had a crack at reservations.

Doc,

Thanks for the clarifcation... I guess that I forgot about the POS... even though I read it recently.

Dean,
Clearly, under the current DVC demographics... a 60% vote would never pass... however... what might happen if DVC did massive expansion outside of WDW... or if they were to aquire all of Cendant's properties of FF and WM. Then the 80K DVC members would be a small minority... and maybe "the masses" would vote to get equal access to our "expensive" DVC properties. Yes... I know there are probably 100 reasons why this could never happen... but we are talking about the theoretical impact of such policy changes.

/Jim

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Doc,

Thanks for the clarifcation... I guess that I forgot about the POS... even though I read it recently.

Dean,
Clearly, under the current DVC demographics... a 60% vote would never pass... however... what might happen if DVC did massive expansion outside of WDW... or if they were to aquire all of Cendant's properties of FF and WM. Then the 80K DVC members would be a small minority... and maybe "the masses" would vote to get equal access to our "expensive" DVC properties. Yes... I know there are probably 100 reasons why this could never happen... but we are talking about the theoretical impact of such policy changes.

/Jim

are you so sure a 60% vote wouldnt pass? at first i thought yes but you have 2 rather large resorts(okw and SSR) whose members may look favorably towards reducing that window and thereby allowing themselves easier access to the other resorts. Not to mention some VB and HH owners as well.

Right now it might not pass, but one more large dvc reosrt and who knows.

 

[sarhenty]

Imagine if the next new resort would be the Contemporary!
oh the terror, it just makes me cringe to think about it!

 

[Beca]

are you so sure a 60% vote wouldnt pass? .

I think it's time for greenban to do another poll!!!

Beca

 

[jarestel]

i still completely disagree. There is absolutely zero chance the same number of rooms will be booked at the non-home member window. No way every person who normally books between 11 months and 7 months will then book between 11 months and 10 months. Just wont happen.

Its not about becoming better planners, some peoples lifestyles just dont allow them to plan at 11 months.

After getting shut out of their desired accomodations a few times, I'd bet they find a way to do it. As long as it's important. If they don't really care where they stay, all is fine. Just will happen.