2042 and Extensions

[CarolynFH]

If you want to compare 1996 DVC with 2020 DVC, look at the differences in floor plans, in the number of sleeping surfaces in each size villa, in the number of showers, in the kitchen layout. Look at electrical outlets. Look at the different materials used. I see great differences, and I expect that in 2042 there will be similarly great differences in what guests want and expect in a "deluxe" timeshare accommodation. That will be in addition to the code changes that @DonMacGregor explained. Whether they tear down the buildings completely and build from the ground up, or just gut them, I expect the 2042 resorts will see significant changes.

 

[Nursemanit]

OK, well that's wholly inaccurate, but ok. I guess they're both multi-story and both located in Florida...

I could spend 40 hours explaining the differences in the Codes between 1996 and 2019, but that would bore everyone. As someone involved in the design, construction, performance testing and subsequent investigation of structures here in the US, just because they aren't using replicators in the restaurants, a transporter to get you from your hotel to the parks, or other manifest changes to the appearance or functionality of the facility, doesn't mean the changes aren't there.

It's the changes that you can't see that are the ones that require the greatest modification and/or replacement to maintain code-compliance. As I stated (I thought clearly) previously, the issues will relate to energy efficiency of HVAC, plumbing, and electrical systems, building envelope (roofing, fenestration, and exterior cladding) and other weather-resistive elements, and integration of whole-building smart technology, etc. Throw in the smart functionality as it relates to the occupants and the changes will be even more pronounced. We are already seeing smart integration in new hotels built all over the world, both in building operation systems and in guest services and front-facing amenities.

As to the societal changes between 1996 and today: how many people had cell phones in 1996? You couldn't even buy the first Blackberry until 1999. How many of us had high-speed internet versus that 9600 baud dial up modem, WiFi everywhere we go, electrical vehicles, driverless vehicles? Even your average car has smart cruise control, lane control, and collision avoidance today.

In 1996, how many of us walked into the house and said "Hey Google" or "Hey Alexa" and got any response whatsoever, never mind controlling our lights, our heating and air conditioning (and now humidity), playing music, starting the coffee pot, locking or unlocking our doors, etc. Want to check your fridge inventory and order food? No problem. How about doing all that from the office or your car (and while you're at it, closing the garage door you accidentally left open)? In 1996, you were lucky if you could get an audio baby monitor ( I know, I think we bought them all), never mind a camera. Now our homes are filled with cameras inside and out (arguably not a good thing) and we can scare away porch pirates using our doorbell. Touch screens, 3D holographic images, the list goes on and on. Want to watch a movie? In 1996, you probably still used a combination of VHS tapes and maybe a brand-new DVD player (you'd have to wait until 2003 for a fancy new BlueRay). Now, we stream all of our entertainment and almost no one keeps hard media. We've gone from 5" drives to 3.5" floppy disks to ZIPP drives to CD/DVD drives to no external drives at all. Today you can buy a micro SD card that has 2 TB of storage, equal to 1,456,354 floppy disks or 2,996 CDs.

It's not the Jetsons, but it sure isn't the Flintstones either (which is what 1996 looks like technologically in 2022). To suggest that the past 25 years has not been a watershed period for technological advancement ignores just how remarkably different things are today versus the 1990's. Construction technology is advancing at the same pace.

I'd argue 20 years is a VERY long time.

So if you take 2 towers built 15 years apart like BLT and RR. The cladding, roofing and energy efficiency of the new HVAC is why RR is so much lower in Maintenance fees? Oh wait, no, RR maintenance is actually significantly more expensive - so maybe the builders are just charging more. What do we see as DVC buyers? I see nothing significant for DVC owners ( which is my point.) The buildings in 20 years will look and feel like DLT and Poly2.

For your paragraph on useless consumer novelty items like voice command they were invented in the 60s they are not “new” in the past 20 years.

Bell labs invented voice command in the 50s and IBM ( voice plus algorithms ) in the 1960s - and the latest versions have no long term adoption past car audio.

Every tech item you mentioned can be addded by a 14 year old with a credit card. DVC could add it to the oldest hotel in one week. Nothing structural needed.

 

[Nursemanit]

If you want to compare 1996 DVC with 2020 DVC, look at the differences in floor plans, in the number of sleeping surfaces in each size villa, in the number of showers, in the kitchen layout. Look at electrical outlets. Look at the different materials used. I see great differences, and I expect that in 2042 there will be similarly great differences in what guests want and expect in a "deluxe" timeshare accommodation. That will be in addition to the code changes that @DonMacGregor explained. Whether they tear down the buildings completely and build from the ground up, or just gut them, I expect the 2042 resorts will see significant changes.

Poly is one of the oldest resorts and has the best layout - BLT is signifigantly newer and has a poor layout. Design choices, not age dictate layout.

 

[DonMacGregor]

So if you take 2 towers built 15 years apart like BLT and RR. The cladding, roofing and energy efficiency of the new HVAC is why RR is so much lower in Maintenance fees? Oh wait, no, RR maintenance is actually significantly more expensive - so maybe the builders are just charging more. What do we see as DVC buyers? I see nothing significant for DVC owners ( which is my point.) The buildings in 20 years will look and feel like DLT and Poly2.

For your paragraph on useless consumer novelty items like voice command they were invented in the 60s they are not “new” in the past 20 years.

Bell labs invented voice command in the 50s and IBM ( voice plus algorithms ) in the 1960s - and the latest versions have no long term adoption past car audio.

Every tech item you mentioned can be addded by a 14 year old with a credit card. DVC could add it to the oldest hotel in one week. Nothing structural needed.

You clearly don’t have any experience in architecture, structural engineering, Green Building, EMP design, bidding, scheduling, contracting, or any other aspect of the construction process. Hotels, hospitals, and school districts and colleges spend millions of dollars and take months and sometimes years to retrofit facilities. If you honestly think that stuff can be done in a week, then this really is pointless.

ETA: Just an FYI, making a building system more energy efficient doesn't mean it's lower maintenance. More complex systems have more components, potentially more consumables like filters, batteries, etc., and often require more monitoring and progressive maintenance. The purpose is to save natural resources, not to lower labor costs. Oh, and if l were looking to see why Riviera fees are what they are, I'd begin with transportation.

 

[NVDISFamily]

This has grown pointless and tedious. You clearly don’t have any experience in architecture, structural engineering, Green Building, EMP design, bidding, scheduling, contracting, or any other aspect of the construction process. Hotels, hospitals, and schools spend millions of dollars and take months and sometimes years to retrofit facilities. If you honestly think that stuff can be done in a week, then this really is pointless.

This sounds like when I tried to almost talk each customer out of their kitchen or bath remodel before I would sell them one to set very realistic expectations on how long they would be without their kitchen or bathroom to make sure they really really wanted to do it before we move forward. Most people were cool after telling them 20 or so times how long it would take but it wasn't rare to have someone complain that it was taking too long and to say it would/should only take a week or two despite them signing tons of docs saying that it would likely take way longer. The best customers were the ones who said no problem they would be at their guest house or RV for a few months. No one likes having to hand wash their dishes in their bathroom sink for a month.....

 

[Nursemanit]

You clearly don’t have any experience in architecture, structural engineering, Green Building, EMP design, bidding, scheduling, contracting, or any other aspect of the construction process. Hotels, hospitals, and school districts and colleges spend millions of dollars and take months and sometimes years to retrofit facilities. If you honestly think that stuff can be done in a week, then this really is pointless.

ETA: Just an FYI, making a building system more energy efficient doesn't mean it's lower maintenance. More complex systems have more components, potentially more consumables like filters, batteries, etc., and often require more monitoring and progressive maintenance. The purpose is to save natural resources, not to lower labor costs. Oh, and if l were looking to see why Riviera fees are what they are, I'd begin with transportation.

If it does not save me money on utilities then it has 0 value. This is the reason why we waste millions on schools and other buildings because people get sold the bill of goods you are spewing

And my comment on taking a week was clearly related to the tech products but you knew that and are just being argumentative.

 

[Sandisw]

Let’s get back to topic And move away from what seems to be an argument.

 

[DonMacGregor]

This sounds like when I tried to almost talk each customer out of their kitchen or bath remodel before I would sell them one to set very realistic expectations on how long they would be without their kitchen or bathroom to make sure they really really wanted to do it before we move forward. Most people were cool after telling them 20 or so times how long it would take but it wasn't rare to have someone complain that it was taking too long and to say it would/should only take a week or two despite them signing tons of docs saying that it would likely take way longer. The best customers were the ones who said no problem they would be at their guest house or RV for a few months. No one likes having to hand wash their dishes in their bathroom sink for a month.....

I mean, you don't need to look any further than the transition from R-22 refrigerant (Freon) to R-410A. Starting January 1, 2020, the EPA banned the import of all R-22 refrigerant. The options are slim: continue to recharge with really expensive existing yet dwindling stock of R-22 until it runs out or your system eventually reaches it's life cycle and dies, or purchase a new system designed to run on R-410A. Either option eventually ends up with a new system. That means replacing the condenser (the thing outside), and the evaporator (the thing that sits on top of your furnace air handler and has the refrigerant coils). Most manufacturers recommend replacing the line set as well (the high and low pressure copper lines that run between the condenser and the evaporator) due to contamination.

Now look at having to do that in a hotel with 300 or 400 separate AC systems, and having those line sets run through the structure, across and underneath adjacent rooms, in walls and ceilings, etc. Sure it's relatively easy if you have PTAC units (the self-contained units that sit in the wall below a window), but if you have conventional systems, then you're tearing into drywall and framing. It doesn't even make the system any more efficient or less expensive to run, it just lowers greenhouse gasses and regardless of what you think about those, it's the law. You can't even tell the difference between the two systems unless you know what you're looking for.

 

[supersnoop]

Poly is one of the oldest resorts and has the best layout - BLT is signifigantly newer and has a poor layout. Design choices, not age dictate layout.

You have to recognize that's an opinion. I find the BLT layout to be ideal, and the PVB layout to be wasteful.

 

[Sandisw]

You have to recognize that's an opinion. I find the BLT layout to be ideal, and the PVB layout to be wasteful.

Me too. It’s why the new tower being built may have me buying at Poly. We do not like PVB but the tower appeals to us!

 

[RoseGold]

Thinking this through, I'm still not sure why DVC won't wash points. They could offer it at some ridiculous price, like $100/point, and it would help their overall pitch, and a few suckers might actually do it.

 

[Nursemanit]

Me too. It’s why the new tower being built may have me buying at Poly. We do not like PVB but the tower appeals to us!

Poly and RR have the same layout

 

[Sandisw]

Poly and RR have the same layout

Certainly not the current PVB. That’s why the new tower will be a potential choice

We don’t stay at PVB because of the set up of the resort and not a fan of the longhouses.

 

[Jwaire]

Whether they tear down the buildings completely and build from the ground up, or just gut them, I expect the 2042 resorts will see significant changes.

There's no doubt that if Walt Disney World was being built out today that the grandiosity of Grand Floridian , Polynesian, Wilderness Lodge, Boardwalk, Yacht & Beach, etc. would not exist today. In 1988, Grand Floridan cost the company $135 million. In 2011, Aulani cost the company $800+ million.

Construction costs today for something like Yacht & Beach or Boardwalk would be in the billions.

These resorts are iconic. I fully expect Disney will take care of them. They're not going anywhere.

Certainly not the current PVB. That’s why the new tower will be a potential choice

We don’t stay at PVB because of the set and not a fan of the longhouses.

Yet, you own at GFV which is another sprawling, old-style layout resort. It's interesting to see how different resorts appeal to different people. I like that there's so much variety at Walt Disney World.

I'm hoping Poly tower turn outs more like Aulani than Gran Destino, but I'm setting my expectations low.

 

[Sandisw]

There's no doubt that if Walt Disney World was being built out today that the grandiosity of Grand Floridian , Polynesian, Wilderness Lodge, Boardwalk, Yacht & Beach, etc. would not exist today. In 1988, Grand Floridan cost the company $135 million. In 2011, Aulani cost the company $800+ million.

Construction costs today for something like Yacht & Beach or Boardwalk would be in the billions.

These resorts are iconic. I fully expect Disney will take care of them. They're not going anywhere.



Yet, you own at GFV which is another sprawling, old-style layout resort. It's interesting to see how different resorts appeal to different people. I like that there's so much variety at Walt Disney World.

I'm hoping Poly tower turn outs more like Aulani than Gran Destino, but I'm setting my expectations low.

VGF is all in one building and you can get to the main building and all transportation under covered walkways.…granted, now with BPK you lose that but I also stayed there and decided the resort studios don’t work for me.

On top of that, I prefer the ambience of the resort and the fact it has a fitness room vs. Poly which currently does not.

We went once to Poly and didn’t end up with both rooms in the same building…and that was a disappointment…we don’t run into that at VGF or RI…worst would be different floors.

It’s also why I like BLT too. But I agree it’s why it’s so great there are so many choices.

 

[buzzrelly]

You have to recognize that's an opinion. I find the BLT layout to be ideal, and the PVB layout to be wasteful.

This, 100%! If there are going to be two bathrooms, then make it two toilets! This layout makes me crazy! Plus, I love the galley style kitchen in BLT, so neat and tucked away.

 

[supersnoop]

Thinking this through, I'm still not sure why DVC won't wash points. They could offer it at some ridiculous price, like $100/point, and it would help their overall pitch, and a few suckers might actually do it.

What's their margin on that sale, though? They make more on conversions and new construction than they would on an extra 15 year extension.

 

[RoseGold]

What's their margin on that sale, though? They make more on conversions and new construction than they would on an extra 15 year extension.

Before VGF2, it was about 70-ish for what they were buying on ROFR. It got much narrower when VGF2 reset the market. If Disney can skip the ROFR step and make even more, makes sense to me.

You already can wash, sort of, you just have to sell and buy direct. With the exception of VGC, which you shouldn't use anywhere else, anyway.

 

[kilik64]

Maybe I dont know exactly what point washing means, but wouldnt the $100 proposed be all profit basically? It'd just be them flipping a switch and making your points unrestricted right?

 

[DVCsloth]

Not sure I get it either, $100 per point to eliminate resale restrictions?