2023 resale price speculation

[RoseGold]

In my opinion the only "real" perk that makes it worth buying direct from DVC vs. going resale is the fact that your points are unrestricted and can be used at any current and future DVC resort (subject of course to availability). With two new resorts coming online in the next two years and with the current restrictions on RIV, that becomes a real (and really only remaining) perk for buying direct.

I agree, I think this is the current cultural move. I'm assuming they are really putting the money into Poly2 and doing it right. I think they may have learned from Aulani and RIV and have finally decided to make something grand enough to command a premium, now and going forward. I'm a never-RIV, and I can still see the case for charging through the roof for Poly2. The resort I would imagine after that would be Coronado North after Coronado is connected to HS and TTC with the Skyliner, or maybe ripping down a wing of aging Yacht Club with bad views.

Long term, this makes the blue card valuable, but that's a long way away, and I'm not holding that long. For now, with only a couple locked down resorts, resale is fine IMO. And DVC Past is a real competitor to DVC Present.

 

[RoseGold]

We are in the process of trying to figure out if DVC is for us so trying to do all the research I can. We were initially going to buy 250 points to start so we could go twice a year, maybe split between two different resorts for the early reservation perk, but because of the no AP problem right now we are considering 150 points at one resort instead to go only once a year. We would buy that contract resale to save money and get our foot in the door. The other contract would have been direct with Disney.

I think right now exit strategy is the most important consideration. DVC is undergoing major shifts and if you plan to sell in 7 years that's very different than someone who will have DVC pried out of their dying hands. If you plan to hold for life, I think there's a very good case for Poly2 or even RIV/VGF2/OKWe direct right now.

 

[Sandisw]

I think there are a lot of factors in play. The active ROFR created prices to go higher and now that we have seen a slow down of that, prices needs to adjust.

People may also be selling and those not buying because right now, vacation isn’t as big of a part of the budget as it once was given all the increase in everyday expenses.

 

[tom1944]

One thing I was looking at is does the savings in buying a 2042 resort compared to a 2060+ resort make sense if you believe you will hold until the expiration.

Sadly it does not seem like it. I used CCV and BRV as a comparison and it seemed that 100 point contract would save you about $4000. I think the 2042 contracts need to really drop in price and if that starts to happen it could really put pressure on the other contracts

 

[RoseGold]

One thing I was looking at is does the savings in buying a 2042 resort compared to a 2060+ resort make sense if you believe you will hold until the expiration.

It does if you think DVC will keep pumping out multimillion point resorts with huge charts and high point rooms, and you won't be able to stay at BC without them. BC only has 3M points.

 

[Sandisw]

One thing I was looking at is does the savings in buying a 2042 resort compared to a 2060+ resort make sense if you believe you will hold until the expiration.

Sadly it does not seem like it. I used CCV and BRV as a comparison and it seemed that 100 point contract would save you about $4000. I think the 2042 contracts need to really drop in price and if that starts to happen it could really put pressure on the other contracts

One thing we know for sure is that in 19 years, 2042 resorts cease to exist and the cost of your lodgings are no longer covered.

We exchanged BWV contracts for RIV because we not only love it, but because we added my adult children as owners who knew they wanted to go beyond that timeframe.

But, worst case, they change their minds and decide to sell after we are gone…and we have accounted for dues to be covered by our estate for up to 10 years once we are gone, assuming the contracts are still owned.

I too think 2042 are overpriced, but if one was my top place that I wanted to be…like I do at RIV…I’d pay for it.

 

[crazycatlady]

I think right now exit strategy is the most important consideration. DVC is undergoing major shifts and if you plan to sell in 7 years that's very different than someone who will have DVC pried out of their dying hands. If you plan to hold for life, I think there's a very good case for Poly2 or even RIV/VGF2/OKWe direct right now.

My adult children are big Disney parks fans, too, so part of the attraction of buying into DVC is to be able to spend vacation time with them and my future grandkids, plus being able to leave my contract(s) to them to use with their kids. So I guess I go with the option of "having it pried out of my dying hands".

Are you saying you think I should wait and buy direct next year instead of buying resale in early 2023? Or are you saying I should buy the 1st contract resale and then consider buying that 2nd contract direct when the incentives come out for VGF2/Poly2?RIV?

And I appreciate everyone's help, by the way.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

One thing I was looking at is does the savings in buying a 2042 resort compared to a 2060+ resort make sense if you believe you will hold until the expiration.

Sadly it does not seem like it. I used CCV and BRV as a comparison and it seemed that 100 point contract would save you about $4000. I think the 2042 contracts need to really drop in price and if that starts to happen it could really put pressure on the other contracts

I tend to think they’re priced correctly: if you straight line the buy in it looks more expensive, but if you account for money in the future having less value than money now (due to inflation, savings, etc) I actually think BRV and CCV are roughly what you’d expect.

Outside of that one specific scenario, if you look at price per night instead of price per point, the point charts on BWV and OKW are so much better than anything released since that they’re IMO actually among the cheapest resorts even when you account for the 19 year burnout (again assuming some diminishing value of money; SSR is still cheaper).

BCV I can’t defend. It’s too expensive.

 

[RoseGold]

Are you saying you think I should wait and buy direct next year instead of buying resale in early 2023? Or are you saying I should buy the 1st contract resale and then consider buying that 2nd contract direct when the incentives come out for VGF2/Poly2?RIV?

Start a new thread and brain dump your plans, concerns, budget, how you travel and so on. You will get differing opinions, which is part of the fun. And I would have a serious discussion with your adult children before you get too far down this path. Lots of adults have limited vacation, don't care about Disney, like to ski or go to the beach or whatever, or just don't care about DVC and would be completely uninterested in this.

 

[jason423]

Probably all of the above. With Covid having impacted so much travel for a few years there are probably more than a few who learned that maybe you dont need DVC the way you thought you did in the past. Id also guess that some were upset with the way things have been run the last few years with a lack of perks for being a member and probably the general feeling that Disney is trying to see how much they can get out of you

That said I think that inflation has really hurt many people. If you are not in a fixed rate mortgage or need a new mortgage its a way higher expense now than before and selling a luxury like DVC to offset that may be needed. I could see getting to Florida being an issue. Unless you live in driving distance the flights have gone up. When you combine that cost of travel just to get there and then the expense while in Disney its probably a lot more expensive than you were budgeting a few years ago.

Finally I think if you want to get back into DVC down the line you may be looking at this as a way to cash out for a few years and if things get a bit better for you and you get the Disney itch again that there could be good deals on the Poly2 which they will probably be aggressive with at first.

 

[Cfabar1]

We don’t know how long little to no ROFR is going to last, however, I do think sales prices for the resale resorts are going to have to continue to drop, especially with maintenance fees inevitable rise. People and businesses throughout Florida are in for a major awakening after the hurricanes this past year. Several companies and individuals I know are seeing their property insurance premiums double in the coming year. Those realities are going to hit DVC as well, and I would not be surprised to see Vero Beach or HH have dues around $18 in a couple years. Orlando will definitely feel this impact in some way or another as well.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

We don’t know how long little to no ROFR is going to last, however, I do think sales prices for the resale resorts are going to have to continue to drop, especially with maintenance fees inevitable rise. People and businesses throughout Florida are in for a major awakening after the hurricanes this past year. Several companies and individuals I know are seeing their property insurance premiums double in the coming year. Those realities are going to hit DVC as well, and I would not be surprised to see Vero Beach or HH have dues around $18 in a couple years. Orlando will definitely feel this impact in some way or another as well.

I think it’s safe to assume that as long as sold out direct sales remain bad, ROFR will remain sparse.

Can’t imagine Disney wants to go acquire a bunch of contracts they won’t be able to resell quickly.

 

[tom1944]

We don’t know how long little to no ROFR is going to last, however, I do think sales prices for the resale resorts are going to have to continue to drop, especially with maintenance fees inevitable rise. People and businesses throughout Florida are in for a major awakening after the hurricanes this past year. Several companies and individuals I know are seeing their property insurance premiums double in the coming year. Those realities are going to hit DVC as well, and I would not be surprised to see Vero Beach or HH have dues around $18 in a couple years. Orlando will definitely feel this impact in some way or another as well.

Since I am not in Florida I am not following the insurance issue beyond being aware it exists.

Since many large employers self insure for health insurance is there any discussion of large property owners considering a self insurance model for property insurance?

 

[Cfabar1]

Since I am not in Florida I am not following the insurance issue beyond being aware it exists.

Since many large employers self insure for health insurance is there any discussion of large property owners considering a self insurance model for property insurance?

Wealthy individuals are already beginning to do this for their homes. https://www.wptv.com/money/real-est...t-its-like-to-drop-home-insurance-self-insure

I am unsure if that is making its way into the commercial sphere, but I would not be surprised to learn it has.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think it’s safe to assume that as long as sold out direct sales remain bad, ROFR will remain sparse.

Can’t imagine Disney wants to go acquire a bunch of contracts they won’t be able to resell quickly.

They have to be careful though. This model has the potential to turn them into something as bad as a Westgate or Marriott. And, undoubtedly it would lead to individuals being less likely to pull the trigger with direct resorts. A huge part of the DVC brand is “it isn’t a normal timeshare”.

 

[tom1944]

They have to be careful though. This model has the potential to turn them into something as bad as a Westgate or Marriott. And, undoubtedly it would lead to individuals being less likely to pull the trigger with direct resorts. A huge part of the DVC brand is “it isn’t a normal timeshare”.

Yes, I would imagine they would have to set a floor. I could see a time when the 2042 resorts are abandoned in the ROFR market though. What's that date is anyone's guess

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

insurance is not a significant component of dues today. If it doubled it would not be a significant component of dues. For many resorts it’s under $0.20/point.

 

[Brian Noble]

A huge part of the DVC brand is “it isn’t a normal timeshare”.

This is primarily an effect of Disney's Reality Distortion Field. That part won't go away even if the resale market tanks.

For example, Marriott has more in common with DVC than with Westgate, but most DVCers will be hard pressed to believe it.

 

[tom1944]

insurance is not a significant component of dues today. If it doubled it would not be a significant component of dues. For many resorts it’s under $0.20/point.

The actual data is really important to know

 

[DonMacGregor]

The actual data is really important to know

It’s all broken out in the annual dues statement.