2023 resale price speculation

[tom1944]

It’s all broken out in the annual dues statement.

I was aware but I never actually looked closely at the financials since I do not own yet

I will look once I decide to buy a specific resort

 

[DonMacGregor]

I was aware but I never actually looked closely at the financials since I do not own yet

I will look once I decide to buy a specific resort

Saw you just joined last month, so wasn’t sure and thought I’d let you know.

 

[tom1944]

Saw you just joined last month, so wasn’t sure and thought I’d let you know.

Thank you

 

[harmon54]

So if you had a contract that you were going to sell but didn’t need to sell right now would you hold onto it for awhile or just sell now at a reduced price since the plan is to sell eventually and prices may go down even more? It is like timing the market right no real answer but I could use the points or rent them out so not sure where these prices will go.

 

[pianomanzano]

So if you had a contract that you were going to sell but didn’t need to sell right now would you hold onto it for awhile or just sell now at a reduced price since the plan is to sell eventually and prices may go down even more? It is like timing the market right no real answer but I could use the points or rent them out so not sure where these prices will go.

I'd hold onto it for awhile, at least a couple months and see how the market goes. You can easily rent out the points for double the cost of the dues.

 

[Nursemanit]

Yes, I would imagine they would have to set a floor. I could see a time when the 2042 resorts are abandoned in the ROFR market though. What's that date is anyone's guess

It already happened, It was 6 months ago .

 

[Nursemanit]

I'd hold onto it for awhile, at least a couple months and see how the market goes. You can easily rent out the points for double the cost of the dues.

Renting is not easy anymore. - lots of competition

 

[pianomanzano]

Renting is not easy anymore. - lots of competition

I think people just make it difficult and are going about it all wrong, it's really not that hard. Saying you have X number of points at $Y/point will invite a bunch of wishy-washy people asking about availability, many of whom will just ghost you after all that effort. Book a studio at a popular place for a long weekend, post it on FB and don't allow any changes/mods and you'll get people immediately requesting to book it.

 

[Brian Noble]

Book a studio at a popular place for a long weekend, post it on FB and don't allow any changes/mods and you'll get people immediately requesting to book it.

That’s probably the way to maximize $/pt as well. There is more head room in studio pricing. There is a reason that rental brokers are asking owners to secure spec reservations.

 

[Nursemanit]

I think people just make it difficult and are going about it all wrong, it's really not that hard. Saying you have X number of points at $Y/point will invite a bunch of wishy-washy people asking about availability, many of whom will just ghost you after all that effort. Book a studio at a popular place for a long weekend, post it on FB and don't allow any changes/mods and you'll get people immediately requesting to book it.

I have had a reservation up for 4 months no bites at 18 / point

 

[pianomanzano]

I have had a reservation up for 4 months no bites at 18 / point

Don't know what to tell you, sounds like the exception not the norm based on what I see on FB rental groups daily and what I've experienced. I had 20+ contact me about a RIV studio reservation that I had within the first hour of posting. Had a SSR studio reservation rented out the same day I posted. I'd post that reservation across multiple FB rental groups and/or change the dates if you're not getting any bites.

 

[Sandisw]

So if you had a contract that you were going to sell but didn’t need to sell right now would you hold onto it for awhile or just sell now at a reduced price since the plan is to sell eventually and prices may go down even more? It is like timing the market right no real answer but I could use the points or rent them out so not sure where these prices will go.

Personally, If I wanted out I’d sell and be done.

 

[havoc315]

Well,

here we are in December, and the board’s sponsor site has more contracts for sale than I can remember at any point since the early days of the pandemic. In fact, across the whole market, the number of contracts for sale has increased by like 25% in 2 months.

Asking prices are hitting lows we haven’t seen in 2 years. You can find OKW at $94, BRV and Saratoga barely above $100, even favorites like Beach Club in the $130s and Bay Lake and Poly in the $140s. And I don’t think I need to tell anyone what’s happened with VGC.

So what’s up?

Why is everyone selling their DVC contracts?

And I think maybe more to the point, why isn’t anyone buying them?

Is it the economy? But aren’t wages going up still? Is it that the government isn’t sending people 4-5 figure checks anymore? Is it peoples frustration with changes at WDW?

Yes yes yes yes. Government stimulus checks may have caused a temporary artificial inflation in DVC demand and therefore prices.
Increased interest rates have made it harder to finance DVC purchases. (though I strongly discourage anyone from financing it, which destroys the value).

But also, to some degree, could be looking at market saturation, at least at the higher price points. The resale supply really is also growing. Disney can control the supply of direct points but at least until we get to 2042, the market of resale points will go always upward. Because a percentage of all direct points sold eventually become resale points. More and more people who bought in the 1990's may be looking at selling off their contracts. While supply of re-sale is always increasing, the same can't necessarily be said for demand. Do more people want to buy DVC every year? It's not like WDW has much additional capacity to grow attendance at astronomic levels. Thus, if demand for DVC levels off while supply keeps increasing, prices will decrease.

And perhaps most importantly, what happens in 2023? Do prices keep falling (and make no mistake, they are falling)? Or does something happen to turn things around?

Speculation:
At least relative to inflation, 2042 resorts will keep falling. Psychologically, I think going under 20 years remaining starts to hurt demand. ($1.99 as opposed to $2.00). We know those contracts become officially worthless on January 30, 2042 -- So at some point they absolutely will start decreasing.

As demand for 2042 contracts declines, with fewer long contract options remaining, we *might* see increases in prices for 2060+ contracts, especially if we avoid a recession.

 

[gscott8075]

We owned in OKW for a few years and HHI for 18 years. We finally sold in 2019 for many reasons:

- Perks and rules changed to advantage Disney. We used to bring kayaks and launch them from the resort. That is no longer allowed - only their guided tours can launch. My family had some of our best memories kayaking around Disney. This was only the beginning as we have seen with the significant changes over the past couple of years.

- Annual dues. Annual dues have increased from 3.32 in 2001 to 10.73 next year! A 2001 dollar is worth 1.68 - DVC rates have increased at more than double the inflation rate. 180 points - almost enough for a 2 BR for 5 nights - is almost $2000 - or $400 a night.

- 2042 - The older resorts expire in 19 years. It was one thing when we had 40+ years - how can the points cost more than they did in 2001 for 1/2 the years?

I believe that DVC has been heading in the wrong direction for quite a while. We sold and about broke even. The original investment and annual dues are exorbitant - especially when you consider the quality of the product has declined.

 

[RoseGold]

We owned in OKW for a few years and HHI for 18 years. We finally sold in 2019 for many reasons:

I believe that DVC has been heading in the wrong direction for quite a while. We sold and about broke even.

I don't see how you could have possibly broken even, unless you financed or bought direct sold out or something or only had you OKW for like two years. Buying resale, you would have made money on both of these transactions, if you held for any reasonable amount of time.

Buying now, well, different math. I don't see how any of this is sustainable.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I don't see how any of this is sustainable.

Like you think prices have peaked permanently (relative to inflation)? That’s interesting. I’m not sure I buy that.

I do think the ideal scenario for DVC is to buy a resale contract, use it for 10-15 years, and sell it for ~what you paid for it. But there’s a preeeeeeeeeety big assumption in terms of expected future resale price in there, one I see you don’t buy into.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

We just bought our first contract (resale) at Poly for the following reasons:
1. Our kids are young and we want to create memories.
2. We can spend 10 days in deluxe studios and some 1BRs for less than a week at AoA.
3. We don’t really know what we lost since we are buying in now.
4. We don’t care if Poly2 is in the same association or not.
5. We didn’t buy DVC as a way to make any money; we view it as an investment in our family, nothing more.
6. We didn’t need to finance it.
7. Living in IL, it’s a once a year forced vacation (I suck at taking vacations.)
8. We save a lot already, so it’s not hurting our chances at retirement.
9. You don’t get to grow old in the America you grew up in; things change and almost all of them are out of our control. Disney is the same. So we don’t really worry about it.

 

[tom1944]

We are considering our first contract (resale) at ??? for the following reasons:
1. Our granddaughter is young and we want to create memories.
2. We need a deluxe room more than a normal hotel room or studio
3. We don’t really know what we lost since we are buying in now.
4. We don’t care if we stay at the same resort every trip but want the opportunity to stay at five we like
5. We will not buy DVC as a way to make any money; we view it as an investment in our family, nothing more.
6. We will not need to finance it.
7. Living in NJ, it’s a once a year forced vacation that provides an environment for my wife to relax and meet up with us on her timeframe. Many vacation spots that does not work
8. We saved a lot already, so it’s not hurting our chances at financial independence
9. You don’t get to grow old in the America you grew up; things change and almost all of them are out of our control. Disney is the same. So we don’t really worry about it.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

We are considering our first contract (resale) at ??? for the following reasons:
1. Our granddaughter is young and we want to create memories.
2. We need a deluxe room more than a normal hotel room or studio
3. We don’t really know what we lost since we are buying in now.
4. We don’t care if we stay at the same resort every trip but want the opportunity to stay at five we like
5. We will not buy DVC as a way to make any money; we view it as an investment in our family, nothing more.
6. We will not need to finance it.
7. Living in NJ, it’s a once a year forced vacation that provides an environment for my wife to relax and meet up with us on her timeframe. Many vacation spots that does not work
8. We saved a lot already, so it’s not hurting our chances at financial independence
9. You don’t get to grow old in the America you grew up; things change and almost all of them are out of our control. Disney is the same. So we don’t really worry about it.

I think there will always be reasons to not do something. For me, a big one was my desire to always save more. But I realized my happiness wasn’t in reaching a certain dollar amount in our investment accounts. Reaching a savings goal, while feeling good, would never feel as good as I first thought. After taking my boys to WDW for the first time this April and seeing how much they loved it and how they ask when they are going to go back, that’s when I knew what would bring the most happiness to our family. Money can make discovering and realizing your goals easier, but it’s not a goal in and of itself. Outside of a home, I have never paid more for something than my DVC contract (that includes two cars and our wedding,) but my wife and I agree that we believe DVC will be an amazing investment in our family. We also bought Poly because it will has such a long contract, we will one day be able to take our grandchildren.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

And just over a week after asking the question, the cheapest OKW has dropped below $90 and the cheapest SSR has dropped below $100. Things are moving faster than they were.