2023 resale price speculation

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Well,

here we are in December, and the board’s sponsor site has more contracts for sale than I can remember at any point since the early days of the pandemic. In fact, across the whole market, the number of contracts for sale has increased by like 25% in 2 months.

Asking prices are hitting lows we haven’t seen in 2 years. You can find OKW at $94, BRV and Saratoga barely above $100, even favorites like Beach Club in the $130s and Bay Lake and Poly in the $140s. And I don’t think I need to tell anyone what’s happened with VGC.

So what’s up?

Why is everyone selling their DVC contracts?

And I think maybe more to the point, why isn’t anyone buying them?

Is it the economy? But aren’t wages going up still? Is it that the government isn’t sending people 4-5 figure checks anymore? Is it peoples frustration with changes at WDW?

And perhaps most importantly, what happens in 2023? Do prices keep falling (and make no mistake, they are falling)? Or does something happen to turn things around?

 

[tom1944]

As someone just starting to look at a purchase I do see a lot of comments that people are unhappy with some recent changes that have negatively impacted their Disney experience

 

[Wyldstyle77]

I honestly don't know. Interest rates maybe????

My husband and I are thinking of buying but only if we don't have to finance.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Chatting with an agent, there tends to be a surge in the amount of contracts every year around dues time . But yes it sure seems like prices have come down quite a bit.

 

[808blessing]

Increases on December dues and no ROFR buybacks

 

[stwaldman]

Prices until recently hadn't really adjusted for the interest rate changes (not everybody was financing at 9% timeshare company rates) and the buying/price surge the last two years was partly driven by the "bonus" funds people had from cancelled COVID trips. Now it's "dues coming due" season, and yeah, tho cool off on buybacks is pushing things down too.

Don't know that anything here is shocking to see here, I do think the board sponsor is hanging on a bit harder to higher asking prices than some other sites out there because last I checked there were quite a few "reduced" or twice reduced contracts.

 

[Bearval]

Well,

here we are in December, and the board’s sponsor site has more contracts for sale than I can remember at any point since the early days of the pandemic. In fact, across the whole market, the number of contracts for sale has increased by like 25% in 2 months.

Asking prices are hitting lows we haven’t seen in 2 years. You can find OKW at $94, BRV and Saratoga barely above $100, even favorites like Beach Club in the $130s and Bay Lake and Poly in the $140s. And I don’t think I need to tell anyone what’s happened with VGC.

So what’s up?

Why is everyone selling their DVC contracts?

And I think maybe more to the point, why isn’t anyone buying them?

Is it the economy? But aren’t wages going up still? Is it that the government isn’t sending people 4-5 figure checks anymore? Is it peoples frustration with changes at WDW?

And perhaps most importantly, what happens in 2023? Do prices keep falling (and make no mistake, they are falling)? Or does something happen to turn things around?

There are multiple reasons all happening right now at the same time.
-Interest rates have gone up
-pent up demand for traveling has abated
- yearly maintenance dues are coming
- recent dissatisfaction with DVC and Disney in general ( this one may be the reason I will sell)
- people worried about recession hitting them

 

[ML_LovesDisney]

We are in the process of selling a large AKV contract and buying a smaller contract direct for RIV (we don't want resale restrictions because we would like to eventually gift our points to our daughters and already own CCV direct).

We honestly just like switching resorts sometimes (have bought and sold several contracts over the years) and with DVC anymore, we need that 11 mth booking window because we travel at school breaks. When we originally bought in 2010, 7 mths was much easier to obtain.

We were going to buy a bigger contract direct with $26 off a point at RIV, but the economy made us pause and DH did not want to take on those dues, so we went with less. So, I think multiple factors are going to affect things for people buying resale. We were in a bubble for awhile, and now that bubble has burst with people's COVID savings drying up.

 

[RoseGold]

Very interesting moment, Jan-spring 2023.

I think the resale prices will continue go down. I think DVC members are headed for the door. They can't use this like they wanted to, and the overall experience has changed too much. Can't say I haven't considered it myself as well The recent price increases have been unsustainable, 2021 was bananas. I renewed my AP and decided to commit to another year. But I bought SSR in the 90s, almost sold it in the 130s, and I can see how 100 doesn't sound bad. I think lots of people are looking at current pricing and deciding they did well enough and it's time to get out. The resale restrictions, staffed-up kiosks, mess on APs, G+ at 7AM have shown the very timeshare-y direct DVC is headed. It's just not the same product I bought into.

This will be an interesting contrast to the continually increasing direct prices, big new projects, and lack of desire for ROFR with all the new points coming online or still in the tank. It's like DVC is trying to hold more and more bags. I think DVC is going to keep raising direct prices, but DVC is still sitting on so many points plus two big developments coming soon. Traditionally lots of resale listings in the next few months, and yet SO MUCH direct still in the pipeline. At this rate, RIV isn't sold out for years and let's not act like RIV will keep its rate against Poly2.

This is not like any other time in DVC history. Direct projects used to sell through pretty quickly, until now. CCV went on sale March 2017, and wasn't sold out going into Covid, after bold announcements early in 2019. SLOOOOW. DVC is holding big bags of RIV and Aulani (and a little bit of VGF2). Maybe DVC has finally reached saturation. It's finally just too expensive, and Disney decisions are just too bad. And then DVC is competing with its past self, with a bunch of starter contracts at 2042 resorts that I think make a lot of sense for many.

The only thing I can see changing this is the APs. Either APs being sold again in some capacity, or only to Blue Card. The neglect of the Blue Card has been brazen. Treating a Blue Card as a PSL for APs totally makes sense to me. Honestly, if they do it, I will regret not buying with the VGF2 incentives.

The same issues will impact direct sales. As long as there are no APs, this is a tough sale. And just because they have shiny new properties and free ice cream doesn't mean they can sell them.

 

[PrincessKL]

Could it also be that the direct price are good enough that some people are selling their resale contracts to buy direct? This is something that I would do. I saw some people talking about lots of BCV and BWV owners selling to buy new ones to extend years:

 

[pianomanzano]

Agree with what everyone is saying except that I don't think current interest rates have anything to do with it since DVC and places like Monera have always had horrible financing options. Also no APs is a huge deal breaker for many DVC members.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I’d say with inflation what it is, real interest rates haven’t changed a whole heck of a lot, especially if you think you’ll pay the whole thing off in 2-3 years like most people on these boards claim to do.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

This is not like any other time in DVC history. Direct projects used to sell through pretty quickly, until now. CCV went on sale March 2017, and wasn't sold out going into Covid, after bold announcements early in 2019. SLOOOOW. DVC is holding big bags of RIV and Aulani (and a little bit of VGF2). Maybe DVC has finally reached saturation. It's finally just too expensive, and Disney decisions are just too bad. And then DVC is competing with its past self, with a bunch of starter contracts at 2042 resorts that I think make a lot of sense for many.

I do wonder how much ROFR Disney will do moving forward. They’ve really raised the prices of the sold out resorts to the point where I am not sure they’re attractive purchases for people. A couple of them there’s zero ability to justify the direct purchase financially and anyone who claims otherwise needs to talk to a CPA. So Disney will be unlikely to ever ROFR those again, since they get a few dozen contracts per resort per year from deed surrenders (fools!) and foreclosures.

 

[Scalemaster34]

One good thing.... Disney will need to address this. Think bringing back some form of DVC AP will have to happen.

But in the end the real-estate business is slowing in general... same factors here.

 

[RoseGold]

I do wonder how much ROFR Disney will do moving forward. They’ve really raised the prices of the sold out resorts to the point where I am not sure they’re attractive purchases for people

IMO the exception to this will remain OKW because they can repackage it with the extension. Otherwise, ROFR seems unappealing to DVC, unless prices keep dropping. Maybe there are prices at which DVC wants to pick up more bags. They were doing ROFR constantly after Covid cooled off, but they had nothing in the pipeline then. Developer points are cheaper for them, and you're right, they get enough free points from foreclosure and forfeiture. No ROFR means resale will keep dropping.

 

[crazycatlady]

Very interesting moment, Jan-spring 2023.

I think the resale prices will continue go down. I think DVC members are headed for the door. They can't use this like they wanted to, and the overall experience has changed too much. Can't say I haven't considered it myself as well The recent price increases have been unsustainable, 2021 was bananas. I renewed my AP and decided to commit to another year. But I bought SSR in the 90s, almost sold it in the 130s, and I can see how 100 doesn't sound bad. I think lots of people are looking at current pricing and deciding they did well enough and it's time to get out. The resale restrictions, staffed-up kiosks, mess on APs, G+ at 7AM have shown the very timeshare-y direct DVC is headed. It's just not the same product I bought into.

This will be an interesting contrast to the continually increasing direct prices, big new projects, and lack of desire for ROFR with all the new points coming online or still in the tank. It's like DVC is trying to hold more and more bags. I think DVC is going to keep raising direct prices, but DVC is still sitting on so many points plus two big developments coming soon. Traditionally lots of resale listings in the next few months, and yet SO MUCH direct still in the pipeline. At this rate, RIV isn't sold out for years and let's not act like RIV will keep its rate against Poly2.

This is not like any other time in DVC history. Direct projects used to sell through pretty quickly, until now. CCV went on sale March 2017, and wasn't sold out going into Covid, after bold announcements early in 2019. SLOOOOW. DVC is holding big bags of RIV and Aulani (and a little bit of VGF2). Maybe DVC has finally reached saturation. It's finally just too expensive, and Disney decisions are just too bad. And then DVC is competing with its past self, with a bunch of starter contracts at 2042 resorts that I think make a lot of sense for many.

The only thing I can see changing this is the APs. Either APs being sold again in some capacity, or only to Blue Card. The neglect of the Blue Card has been brazen. Treating a Blue Card as a PSL for APs totally makes sense to me. Honestly, if they do it, I will regret not buying with the VGF2 incentives.

The same issues will impact direct sales. As long as there are no APs, this is a tough sale. And just because they have shiny new properties and free ice cream doesn't mean they can sell them.

We are in the process of trying to figure out if DVC is for us so trying to do all the research I can. We were initially going to buy 250 points to start so we could go twice a year, maybe split between two different resorts for the early reservation perk, but because of the no AP problem right now we are considering 150 points at one resort instead to go only once a year. We would buy that contract resale to save money and get our foot in the door. The other contract would have been direct with Disney.

Can you please tell me what "staffed-up kiosks", "G+ at 7 am", "neglect of blue card", "and treating a blue card like a PSL" mean?

I feel like maybe DVC isn't quite as good a deal as it seemed to me initially, so unsure of what to do now.

Edited to add that we would not need financing, so interest rates aren't a problem.

 

[tom1944]

We are in the process of trying to figure out if DVC is for us so trying to do all the research I can. We were initially going to buy 250 points to start so we could go twice a year, maybe split between two different resorts for the early reservation perk, but because of the no AP problem right now we are considering 150 points at one resort instead to go only once a year. We would buy that contract resale to save money and get our foot in the door. The other contract would have been direct with Disney.

Can you please tell me what "staffed-up kiosks", "G+ at 7 am", "neglect of blue card", "and treating a blue card like a PSL" mean?

I feel like maybe DVC isn't quite as good a deal as it seemed to me initially, so unsure of what to do now.

Edited to add that we would not need financing, so interest rates aren't a problem.

Following because we are in the considering phase also.

 

[RoseGold]

Can you please tell me what "staffed-up kiosks", "G+ at 7 am", "neglect of blue card", "and treating a blue card like a PSL" mean?

There are a lot of timeshares out there that you can buy for $1 on eBay. DVC wasn't like this. The product was easy to resell, it was a totally different thing. IMO, the resale restrictions are a big reversal, and they staffed up the kiosks for a reason.

The modern park experience, no FP, G+ at 7AM is completely different. The 7AM part in particular is painful for me. Heck, I'd rather do it at midnight.

Blue Card benefits have changed over time. When I bought, there was a mediocre AP discount of a few hundred bucks. These boards were full of decades of this math to justify buying direct. During Covid, there were very few Blue Card benefits. Now they have a few events, and they've added some innovative paid stuff, which I think is great. But not ticket discounts, doesn't match the current Disney price squeeze.

No APs is gamechanging IMO. Lots of sports teams sell PSLs, which are the right to buy season tickets. It's a structure that makes sense to me if they want to limit APs and sell direct DVC. But I don't see it happening, because the APs bringing a sandwich are the undesirables.

The impact of all of this will be more DVC resale on the market and lower prices, as direct continues to go up.

 

[pianomanzano]

We are in the process of trying to figure out if DVC is for us so trying to do all the research I can. We were initially going to buy 250 points to start so we could go twice a year, maybe split between two different resorts for the early reservation perk, but because of the no AP problem right now we are considering 150 points at one resort instead to go only once a year. We would buy that contract resale to save money and get our foot in the door. The other contract would have been direct with Disney.

Can you please tell me what "staffed-up kiosks", "G+ at 7 am", "neglect of blue card", "and treating a blue card like a PSL" mean?

I feel like maybe DVC isn't quite as good a deal as it seemed to me initially, so unsure of what to do now.

Edited to add that we would not need financing, so interest rates aren't a problem.

There's still value in DVC strictly from a financial/contractual perspective. You're getting deluxe resorts and moderate prices, which is what you sign up for when you buy DVC. When people discuss the erosion of blue card perks, they're talking about things like access to a lower tier APs (which before the AP sales last year was an actual discount in addition to the lower tier AP) or Tables in Wonderland discount (which doesn't even exist anymore for anyone, DVC or not). The remaining perks for blue card members and the current shift in perks trends more about exclusive events, many of which you have to pay for, such as the meet and greet brunch with Jodi Benson, the holiday dinner at Pizzerizzo, or the new dessert parties at Top of the World Lounge (which is also now a blue-card perk).

In my opinion the only "real" perk that makes it worth buying direct from DVC vs. going resale is the fact that your points are unrestricted and can be used at any current and future DVC resort (subject of course to availability). With two new resorts coming online in the next two years and with the current restrictions on RIV, that becomes a real (and really only remaining) perk for buying direct.

 

[crazycatlady]

Thank you both for your explanations! It really helps.