2022 DIS CON Weather Planning

[Tiggerette]

Hi y'all, Happy Magical Week of DIS Con 2022! Since there might a sizable discussion about Storm Ian impacting the gulf/FL area, I'm starting this thread to discuss weather planning and general weather/storm updates to help keep the traffic clear for the Official Info Thread and for the Unofficial Event Thread.

Thanks to DanielleC for the following places to find local weather info:
"If anyone wants to see the weather forecasts for West Central FL, https://watch.spectrum.net/livetv
It's Spectrum Cable and the channels should be free to watch Ch 9 is Tampa to Eastern Polk County. Channel 1213 is Central FL, Orange, Osceola and nearby counties. Both have weather every 10 minutes. 9 has in "on the nines" and 13 has it at every 10 minutes at 1 after (01, 11, 21, etc)"

Thanks to TheMouseKid for the following local info:
"we have a favorite weather forecaster over here! His name is Dennis Phillips and he is very reliable. As of now, it is said that the storm keeps tracking west, with the track right now going through Tampa directly (well great). Just keep an eye on everything as the NHC updates it’s tracks every day at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm."

From DISers:
Website for road closures? Florida 511 at https://fl511.com/ or the Smartphone app
Also a good site for accidents and road delays…
https://www.flhsmv.gov/fhp/traffic/live_traffic_feed.html

For DISNEY info: Disney's Weather Update Page
Walt Disney World Hurricane Cancellation Policy

For DVC Stays: https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/vacation-planning/hurricane-policy

Related DIS Board threads:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/h...-related-updates-planning-discussion.3897371/ (See post #2 for collated info; strongly moderated focus on info)

https://www.disboards.com/threads/tropical-threat-leaving-in-9-days.3896968/ (Community type thread discussing storm impacts and info)


Please feel welcome to post your weather planning ideas, strategies, or anything else Ian related that you'd like to share in community.

 

[Tiggerette]

I know I'm exploring the possibility of coming down earlier. I'm nervous my flight for Thursday will be delayed or cancelled, and I won't be able to fly in for the con and other planned events that weekend. I saw that some folks might be shifting their arrival airport to a more northern airport and driving down to Orlando. That's a practical idea as well. Hurricanes can wobble like an ewok toddler, so I also understand that Orlando itself might not be as impacted, but I still worry about the airlines. Due to the distance for me, I have to fly down and there is the availability/cost issue for hotels for earlier arrival. I will be earnestly pondering options like PoohBear under a very high honey-hive.

 

[PamNC]

Thanks Tigerette! I am planning on driving this time (just 9 short hours LOL) and the original plan was to drive down Thursday a.m. after I drop the dogs off at the vet for boarding. It looks to me like the worst of the storm will most likely be Wednesday ... depending on how this pans out because it could change, I may leave Thursday as planned but stop 1/2 way down and hunker down in Savannah-ish area. then leave out early Friday and make most of the panels. that's one plan I have in mind. All depends on Mr. Ian. I think by friday a.m. this sucker will be outta' Florida.

 

[SteveW8002]

Thanks for the local weather link. I’m very much considering coming down Tuesday evening to attempt to beat the wind. My current flight is for Wednesday which looks as if it will be the most probable for high winds. I’ll most likely make a decision later today.

 

[TheMouseKId]

Hey there everyone! I’m a fellow DIS Con attendee and I also live in Tampa (about an hour and a half away from WDW) and we have a favorite weather forecaster over here! His name is Dennis Phillips and he is very reliable. As of now, it is said that the storm keeps tracking west, with the track right now going through Tampa directly (well great). Just keep an eye on everything as the NHC updates it’s tracks every day at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm. Keep an eye on this storm, and make your way here safely!

 

[PamNC]

If it's going to go right through Orlando - I hope they postpone. I'm not trying to be there during a hurricane.

 

[Tiggerette]

Per WESH afternoon forecast, organizational strength of the storm system appears to impact whether it's more direct hit over Tampa over through Orlando. If it's less organized, it may move slower and steer more to the panhandle. Regardless, I'm extremely concerned about any flights arriving Wednesday or Thursday for pre-con arrival. To me, if the con dates are not moved and one has to fly in order to be present for Friday morning, then flight arrival + secured lodging by Tuesday is necessary. By Wednesday afternoon/evening and Thursday the storm would already severely impact area airports. I don't have the option to drive down this time around, so if airports are grounded- so am I.
5pm NHC Advisory is out: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[EE_Mom]

We are watching how things develop and will be making a decision tomorrow. We were supposed to be flying into Orlando on Wednesday afternoon. Our tentative plan is to rent a car a drive down leaving WI on Monday evening and arriving Tuesday afternoon. We are thinking we will get one night at AKL possibly. We will see what DVC rooms are available when we make that call. We plan to bring water and food if we get stuck in our room during the storm. We shall see what tomorrow brings for the forecast.

 

[tatoet]

We are watching how things develop and will be making a decision tomorrow. We were supposed to be flying into Orlando on Wednesday afternoon. Our tentative plan is to rent a car a drive down leaving WI on Monday evening and arriving Tuesday afternoon. We are thinking we will get one night at AKL possibly. We will see what DVC rooms are available when we make that call. We plan to bring water and food if we get stuck in our room during the storm. We shall see what tomorrow brings for the forecast.

We are also coming from WI and are supposed to fly in Wednesday morning. Keeping a close eye on the forecast to decide if we should move our flight or what we should do. Bringing water and food is a great idea!

 

[Tiggerette]

If it's going to go right through Orlando - I hope they postpone. I'm not trying to be there during a hurricane.

This has really resonated with me overnight as I wait for the airlines to waive fare changes. They haven't yet, but I can't expect my flight to go on Thursday. So it means for me to be there for the convention Friday, I have to fly in before the high winds. For me to attend the con, I have to ride out the storm.

I'm not concerned about the infrastructure *IF* I can get down to Orlando in time. (Trying for Tuesday if flights are still available by the time they waive fare changes.) I do appreciate the point of view that we tourists are adding to the burden of care for local responders, supplies, etc. I hear it every time there's an evacuation order back home. I'm not saying Orlando will have an evacuation order, of course not. I do recall reading a good deal from a "creating burden" point of view folx during Matthew. That stuck with me.

Anyways, I stay tethered to my computer hitting refresh to see when fare waivers come through, or update about the con, like it's a special party ticket release day.

 

[PamNC]

I really think at this point GKTW needs to tell us something - this isn't looking good. I know there's a lot of planning involved and rescheduling will take a lot of work but I am surprised we haven't heard a peep yet. There's no chance this thing isn't hitting somewhere in Florida and travel for those flying is going to be all over the place. At the very least I feel they should offer refunds if they aren't going to reschedule. But that's just me - it's for a good cause I know but I'm sure not 100% of the ticket sales go to GKTW. At this point I'm not impressed by the silence.

 

[PamNC]

This has really resonated with me overnight as I wait for the airlines to waive fare changes. They haven't yet, but I can't expect my flight to go on Thursday. So it means for me to be there for the convention Friday, I have to fly in before the high winds. For me to attend the con, I have to ride out the storm.

I'm not concerned about the infrastructure *IF* I can get down to Orlando in time. (Trying for Tuesday if flights are still available by the time they waive fare changes.) I do appreciate the point of view that we tourists are adding to the burden of care for local responders, supplies, etc. I hear it every time there's an evacuation order back home. I'm not saying Orlando will have an evacuation order, of course not. I do recall reading a good deal from a "creating burden" point of view folx during Matthew. That stuck with me.

Anyways, I stay tethered to my computer hitting refresh to see when fare waivers come through, or update about the con, like it's a special party ticket release day.

you bring up a good point - folks adding to the burden. The residents and responders have enough to deal with. Very good point. I too am tethered to the computer and the TV watching you tube and weather forecasts almost constantly. Like an obsessed nutjob. LOL I just look forward to this event so much.. I hope we have some type of resolution soon.

 

[TheMouseKId]

Update from Tampa again. It’s not looking good for us. While the track shows the storm moving up to the Big Bend (turn in Florida between the panhandle and the peninsula), we are still in the cone of uncertainty and very much at risk. If you don’t know hurricane tracking, there are 2 major types of models. We have the GFS and the EURO. The GFS is historically 30% accurate while the EURO is 70% accurate. As of now, the GFS is insisting that the storm will hit the panhandle, but the EURO keeps taking the storm straight to Tampa, each and every run. I hope that GKTW and the DIS does something about this, because it’s not looking good. Keep watching the tracks, and stay safe!

 

[chris abercrombie]

you bring up a good point - folks adding to the burden. The residents and responders have enough to deal with. Very good point. I too am tethered to the computer and the TV watching you tube and weather forecasts almost constantly. Like an obsessed nutjob. LOL I just look forward to this event so much.. I hope we have some type of resolution soon.

you bring up a good point - folks adding to the burden. The residents and responders have enough to deal with. Very good point. I too am tethered to the computer and the TV watching you tube and weather forecasts almost constantly. Like an obsessed nutjob. LOL I just look forward to this event so much.. I hope we have some type of resolution soon.

This has really resonated with me overnight as I wait for the airlines to waive fare changes. They haven't yet, but I can't expect my flight to go on Thursday. So it means for me to be there for the convention Friday, I have to fly in before the high winds. For me to attend the con, I have to ride out the storm.

I'm not concerned about the infrastructure *IF* I can get down to Orlando in time. (Trying for Tuesday if flights are still available by the time they waive fare changes.) I do appreciate the point of view that we tourists are adding to the burden of care for local responders, supplies, etc. I hear it every time there's an evacuation order back home. I'm not saying Orlando will have an evacuation order, of course not. I do recall reading a good deal from a "creating burden" point of view folx during Matthew. That stuck with me.

Anyways, I stay tethered to my computer hitting refresh to see when fare waivers come through, or update about the con, like it's a special party ticket release day.

I really think at this point GKTW needs to tell us something - this isn't looking good. I know there's a lot of planning involved and rescheduling will take a lot of work but I am surprised we haven't heard a peep yet. There's no chance this thing isn't hitting somewhere in Florida and travel for those flying is going to be all over the place. At the very least I feel they should offer refunds if they aren't going to reschedule. But that's just me - it's for a good cause I know but I'm sure not 100% of the ticket sales go to GKTW. At this point I'm not impressed by the silence.

Hi there! I just got an email from American Airlines that they are waiving change fees.

 

[Tiggerette]

Southwest has issued the weather advisory. (Waiving change in flight fare.)

https://www.southwest.com/html/advisories/swa_travel_advisory_20228231663963365231.html

 

[DanielleC]

There really isn't anything GKTW can do but wait. They just can't postpone the event for a few more days, if they even would. It doesn't start until Friday. There are contracts signed, deposits paid, and there are 30 or so people coming to be on panels and give talks, The moving parts for events like this are endless. And the storm is supposed to be past Orlando by Thursday. The National Hurricane Center is saying the leading edge of tropical storm winds will be past Orlando by Wednesday morning

I've been at Disney during a hurricane, twice actually. They are prepared and very much so. It may take a day to get everything back online but by Friday they should be back to normal. I recall the last thing to come back online was the friendship boats for EPCOT.

 

[Tiggerette]

I'm not sure how they are looking at the timeline that's required to put on the convention, or ways they are mitigating planned experiences or events if they cannot be set-up in time. Here's what I would love as an attendee, learning from conventions having to very quickly pivot during the pandemic.

I would love an announcement that lays out the circumstances that would require them to postpone or cancel. Is it:
- we'll run if only xx% of panelists, staff and exhibitors attend
- we'll run regardless of panelists or exhibitors attendance
- we'll only cancel if local city, state or host hotel require us to cancel due to storm emergency regulations
- other criteria, etc.

Some conventions can only cancel when the liability clause is met. For example, conventions during the pandemic waited until there was a "Force Majeure" so that they would not be liable for downstream financial consequences cancelling on their own. When the city required that there were no large event gatherings, the liability clause was met and they promptly cancelled.

So considering the very wobbly nature of a hurricane, especially Ian, it would be helpful to know what sort of criteria the team is looking at for confirming go/ no-go for DIScon. This wandering cone is like me tottering through a shop of adorable Figment knick-knacks. Oh! Shiny!

 

[OKW Lover]

There really isn't anything GKTW can do but wait. They just can't postpone the event for a few more days, if they even would. It doesn't start until Friday. There are contracts signed, deposits paid, and there are 30 or so people coming to be on panels and give talks, The moving parts for events like this are endless. And the storm is supposed to be past Orlando by Thursday. The National Hurricane Center is saying the leading edge of tropical storm winds will be past Orlando by Wednesday morning

I've been at Disney during a hurricane, twice actually. They are prepared and very much so. It may take a day to get everything back online but by Friday they should be back to normal. I recall the last thing to come back online was the friendship boats for EPCOT.

Got to agree with you Danielle. We are really local (2 miles from the castle) and are watching the storm track closely. Right now it looks like the path has moved a bit further west. I'm guessing that there will be a heavy rain/wind event but nothing severe enough to close the parks. I also don't think the circumstances would cause the Friday/Saturday event to be canceled. Perhaps the most difficult challenge for the even would be getting the presenters here.

 

[disneyland_is_magic]

Tiggerette thank you for starting this thread and organizing this informaiton. I don't have any skin in the game but I recognize this is a difficult situation and very different for each person.

I agree being in Orlando will be "fine", but the travel there is definitely complicated by the storm. There are issues of lodging cancellation policies, etc putting some deadlines in place, especially for those who had planned to arrive early. I also know that for many people just going to Orlando is significant and they want to make the most of the overall time there (seeing the parks, etc.) As someone who has not yet made it to Orlando, I get it, when I go it will likely be a "one and done." A rained out week in Orlando would be disappointing and difficult to make the best of.

And of course, GKTW is a charity (and a wonderful one at that) and certainly do not control the weather. If presenters are doing this as a donation of time rather than paid, they may be more likely to bow out. They may have flights cancelled not allowing them to pop in and out of Orlando they squeezed in between other commitments.

Overall, I wish everyone safety and I hope each person is able to make an informed decision they feel comfortable with and make the best out of it. Vacation time and money is precious and I hope it all works out. You have done a great job of keeping the tone level headed and informative.

 

[TheMouseKId]

I can't stress this enough, but PLEASE do not just listen to the line. The shaded area around the track is uncertainty. They just draw a line up in the middle to show what type of storm it will be. As of now, a new GFS model was released about a half hour ago, and it tracks much further east (towards the peninsula) than the previous model (View Here) Note the models are not exact tracks, just an average. I expect around 5 pm to see the track move back towards Tampa and (sadly) Orlando. As I was typing this, a new EURO model was released (View Here), and sadly it remains in the same exact location as before. Please be safe, and I will keep you updated.