2021 Point Reallocation

[crvetter]

Interesting, but it still seems de minimis in the scheme of the DVC operation.

Looking at the two most recent resorts, Riviera has sold 29 fixed week deeds so far and CCV sold 27 (just 0.15% of its points). If the average fixed week contract was 200 points and Disney was 'out of the money' by a full 10% on each of them, they'd have to contribute ~1,100 points. Even though DVC rents their points for a pretty penny (often $30+) that's still only like $35k in value lost.

A rounding error compared to the $30+ million in management fees DVCMC collects each year from the dues.

True but more specifically I'm referring to VGF which has sold 275 fixed weeks or 4% of their total points. So in your example you are talking about $1.18 million in Management Fees for the Resort. Using the exact same numbers they would be out $165,000 in rental income (5,500 points) which also eats through about half of the ~12,000 points that DVD owns at VGF (though this number could be higher or lower we don't know the exact details on the contract); this is also slightly over 10% of the management fees they collect. You looked at the numbers in aggregate across all resorts. I'm sure when the higher ups see these numbers they will be looking at a resort by resort basis (or only those resorts with GWs). They wouldn't allow those older than Aulani (first resort with GW) to absorb the cost because it skews the problem.

Overall looking at VGF under your assumption doesn't look well on the resort level and I'm sure if it consistently left a 10% drag on their bottom line (and potentially could lead to a depletion of their points especially here when the popular DVC time is where the GWs were all bought for the most part). So this could limit their desire to adjust the first 2 weeks of December and for consistency across all resorts at WDW (because then their cash rates would seem wonky) they likely wouldn't adjust the first 2 weeks of December at any resort too much. Actually cash rates are a huge issue for adjusting point requirements too. If they increase those weeks in points implies cash rates must go up. Therefore it makes DVD hard pressed to rent their points at those resorts during those times because the cash cost at a DVC resort would be higher than the Deluxe Resorts. The opposite happens with summer cant go to cheap point wise or their cash prices would be out of line of rental prices (so they need to lower the cash price) but then it would be too far out of line of the Deluxe Resorts. They desire the point charts to be in line with the cash business for these reason probably. Similar reasons exist why they would never want the Bungalows or Cabins to be too cheap (and like many of us asserted anyway they can't correct) it would diminish the value of other suites on property (think presidential rooms, etc).

 

[crvetter]

So if you stay with the fixed week, then those extra points you paid for just stay in your account? Or, you only Get to use them if the week is canceled ?

If the GW is exercised an owner never sees the extra points (if the point charts imply a lower cost). It is the price to pay for the guarantee.

 

[sethschroeder]

First week or two of September has been decent for us the last few years

I was there during Dorian and added a couple extra days to the vacation at the start as well. I will say it was 100% the best experience at WDW I ever had on that Sunday to Thursday. I have a picture of the castle with Gastons fountain with basically no one in it except way off in the distance at like 10 am.

Is this the proverbial chicken and egg? The demand is high because the points are low, but the points are low because demand wasn't high.

It doesn't really matter though. They can adjust to make nights booking at 11 months slightly more and nights left open slightly less. Over time they will find a balance that works. Its good to see the calendar being broken up more as it will help them more finely tune the charts hopefully.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

If the GW is exercised an owner never sees the extra points (if the point charts imply a lower cost). It is the price to pay for the guarantee.

Maybe that's the pool their going to use for any changes. I'm sure there are people who purchased the fixed weeks that would never cancel and rebook with points so there's going to be some of that 10% around. And there are contracts that were sold thruout the year and not everyone will be seeing a benefit or at least not as big of a benefit so might be inclined to let a few points slide that they wouldn't have before.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The note on the DVC site announcing the changes said "They do not impact Disney’s Vero Beach Resort, Disney’s Hilton Head Island Resort, The Villas at Disney’s Grand Californian Hotel & Spa and Aulani, Disney Vacation Club Villas."

I believe that is just in reference to the added seasons. Points did shift around.

Definitely seems to be a reference to adding seasons. I know VGC has point changes and I've read others stating that HHI has and maybe VB. I haven't looked at Aulani but with everything else having reallocations I wouldn't think they'd be the only one to not have them.

 

[crvetter]

Maybe that's the pool their going to use for any changes. I'm sure there are people who purchased the fixed weeks that would never cancel and rebook with points so there's going to be some of that 10% around. And there are contracts that were sold thruout the year and not everyone will be seeing a benefit or at least not as big of a benefit so might be inclined to let a few points slide that they wouldn't have before.

Agreed it does give them some slush. But the issue is some resorts (VGF for example) has like 65-70% of the GW in the last 6 weeks of the year (the weeks that should be some of the highest point required if current demand dictates it).

 

[Sandisw]

If the GW is exercised an owner never sees the extra points (if the point charts imply a lower cost). It is the price to pay for the guarantee.

Thank you. That is what I was thinking Was the case based on the explanation but just wanted to be sure!

 

[Yinn]

So if you stay with the fixed week, then those extra points you paid for just stay in your account? Or, you only Get to use them if the week is canceled ?

If I stay with a fixed week, there is no extra points because I'm allocated 206 points and it requires 206 points for my guaranteed reservation - regardless of what the points chart says going forward. I'm locked in. I only get those 206 points if I cancel out of it to use however I'd like. Disney confuses it by making it a 10% point premium when its disconnected from what actually happening. So I think of it this way: I didn't buy points, I bought a traditional timeshare. I get a set week at a set place every year. If I want to exchange out, I can do so. Instead of exchanging for RCI points, I exchange for DVC points and that exchange rate is locked in at 1 week = 206 DVC points for the length of the contract.

Examples of how we calculate and decide:
For 2019, we get week 52 booked automatically for 206 points total. A look at 2019 reveals Week 52 would cost 163 points to book on my own. So essentially I'm losing 43 points - or more nicely; paying Disney an extra 43 points to hold and guarantee my reservation. That hardly seems worth it; so we exchanged for the 206 points which allowed us to book a 4 night stay at a 2BR AK Standard (145), plus a 3 night stay at a Value AK Studio (31), and rented out the remaining 30 points for $500.

For 2020, we get week 52 booked automatically for 206 points total. A look at 2020 reveals Week 52 would cost 195 points to book on my own. So this year is better and I'm only paying 11 points to guarantee my reservation; which may or may not be worth it depending on availability.

For 2021, we get week 52 booked automatically for 206 points total. A look at 2021 reveals Week 52 would cost 239 points to book on my own. I'm keeping the guaranteed reservation as I wouldn't be able to secure it on my own with only 206 points to spend. So I'm getting a 33 point discount on this week for the 2021 year. Even if I didn't want to go this week, I would still be better off renting this week out to someone and then renting the points I needed seperately.

 

[Sandisw]

If I stay with a fixed week, there is no extra points because I'm allocated 206 points and it requires 206 points for my guaranteed reservation - regardless of what the points chart says going forward. I'm locked in. I only get those 206 points if I cancel out of it to use however I'd like. Disney confuses it by making it a 10% point premium when its disconnected from what actually happening. So I think of it this way: I didn't buy points, I bought a traditional timeshare. I get a set week at a set place every year. If I want to exchange out, I can do so. Instead of exchanging for RCI points, I exchange for DVC points and that exchange rate is locked in at 1 week = 206 DVC points for the length of the contract.

Examples of how we calculate and decide:
For 2019, we get week 52 booked automatically for 206 points total. A look at 2019 reveals Week 52 would cost 163 points to book on my own. So essentially I'm losing 43 points - or more nicely; paying Disney an extra 43 points to hold and guarantee my reservation. That hardly seems worth it; so we exchanged for the 206 points which allowed us to book a 4 night stay at a 2BR AK Standard (145), plus a 3 night stay at a Value AK Studio (31), and rented out the remaining 30 points for $500.

For 2020, we get week 52 booked automatically for 206 points total. A look at 2020 reveals Week 52 would cost 195 points to book on my own. So this year is better and I'm only paying 11 points to guarantee my reservation; which may or may not be worth it depending on availability.

For 2021, we get week 52 booked automatically for 206 points total. A look at 2021 reveals Week 52 would cost 239 points to book on my own. I'm keeping the guaranteed reservation as I wouldn't be able to secure it on my own with only 206 points to spend. So I'm getting a 33 point discount on this week for the 2021 year. Even if I didn't want to go this week, I would still be better off renting this week out to someone and then renting the points I needed seperately.

Thank yoy! That realy helps to understand exactly now it works!

 

[Dean Marino]

Deleted.

 

[Yinn]

Welll - BRV Blue Card owners? We are not seeing anything that nasty.

Now - 2019? We picked up 30 more points, direct. Just in case . Still glad we did .

And a suggestion? Read the new chart BACKWARDS. We now know that DVC can't sell ANYTHING, Sept 1-19 .
I vote for this as "Hot and Nasty Season" .

Reason #1: Hurricane season.
Reason #2: Most don’t want their kids to miss the first or second week of school.
Reason #3: Did I mention hurricane season?

It’s actually not that bad, we always go last week of Aug and first week of Sept. Crowds are low. The heat is bearable and it seems a hurricane hits maybe once every...not sure. Doesn’t happen often enough to actually affect us. Even last year was more noise than affect.

 

[mathgeek]

Definitely seems to be a reference to adding seasons. I know VGC has point changes and I've read others stating that HHI has and maybe VB. I haven't looked at Aulani but with everything else having reallocations I wouldn't think they'd be the only one to not have them.

Has anyone looked in depth at VB yet? It appears that studios and OVIRs have almost completely swapped point values so that studios are now more expensive than OVIRs. As one who likes to stay in studios, I'm not happy with this change.

 

[drusba]

We have mainly focused on the WDW resorts. Earlier someone mentioned that the new 2021 VGC point chart seemed strange because it had major changes lowering points for most times of the year.

The VGC point chart is strange. The points needed for a studio in Adventure season have remained the same, as did 1BRs in Choice season. Otherwise, the points needed for the studios, 1BRs and 2BRs have decreased throughout the year. The only increases are for the GVs. The point changes do not look like it is possible to still have total points for the resort for the year remain the same, e.g. the 2BRs have gone down on a weekly basis for the year more than the GVs have risen and there are 23 dedicated 2BRs and 23 lock-off 2BRs, while there are only 2 GVs.

So it looks like DVC has both shifted points to GVs from other rooms (which we asserted last year it could not do) and substantially lowered total points applicable to the resort.

Vero Beach has studios going up year round by a significant amount while Ocean View Inn rooms decrease year round and standard view inn rooms stay the same for two seasons and decrease the others. Once again DVC apparently is carrying out its position from last year that it can shift points from one type of room to another.

 

[tnicks]

The added September season that no one wants is simply a ploy to shift points to jack up prices elsewhere across the board. Looking at BWV 1BR, points up literally higher for every single date except September and a select few in the 7th travel period. I don't see this enabling me to go during different times in the year as it appears to simply result in my paying more to go at any point in the year. I hope there is push back.

 

[JETSDAD]

The added September season that no one wants is simply a ploy to shift points to jack up prices elsewhere across the board. Looking at BWV 1BR, points up literally higher for every single date except September and a select few in the 7th travel period. I don't see this enabling me to go during different times in the year as it appears to simply result in my paying more to go at any point in the year. I hope there is push back.

We like beginning of September so it works well for us. Lowering points during seasons nobody wants is kind of the point though and what they are supposed to do to try to balance demand.

 

[anomamatt]

Interesting that dvcexplorer has the same fixed week point costs (for Riviera). I wonder if it's just not updated? Otherwise, there are some nice bargains to be had!

 

[NoTime42]

We have mainly focused on the WDW resorts. Earlier someone mentioned that the new 2021 VGC point chart seemed strange because it had major changes lowering points for most times of the year.

The VGC point chart is strange. The points needed for a studio in Adventure season have remained the same, as did 1BRs in Choice season. Otherwise, the points needed for the studios, 1BRs and 2BRs have decreased throughout the year. The only increases are for the GVs. The point changes do not look like it is possible to still have total points for the resort for the year remain the same, e.g. the 2BRs have gone down on a weekly basis for the year more than the GVs have risen and there are 23 dedicated 2BRs and 23 lock-off 2BRs, while there are only 2 GVs.

So it looks like DVC has both shifted points to GVs from other rooms (which we asserted last year it could not do) and substantially lowered total points applicable to the resort.

Vero Beach has studios going up year round by a significant amount while Ocean View Inn rooms decrease year round and standard view inn rooms stay the same for two seasons and decrease the others. Once again DVC apparently is carrying out its position from last year that it can shift points from one type of room to another.

DVC showed they can shift points between units at SSR.
They shifted some studio/1BR points to THV (that we’re sold as the same points as a 2BR)
Then they created the standard/preferred categories.
I think 2020’s biggest legal issue was the increased lockoff premium at other resorts and not Poly’s shifting points from Bungalows to studios.

 

[Bing Showei]

The added September season that no one wants is simply a ploy to shift points to jack up prices elsewhere across the board. Looking at BWV 1BR, points up literally higher for every single date except September and a select few in the 7th travel period. I don't see this enabling me to go during different times in the year as it appears to simply result in my paying more to go at any point in the year. I hope there is push back.

I’m not normally one to pass on a good conspiracy theory, but the points balance out for the cost to book up every room in the resort for a year. There are no lockoff changes where points were being fabricated from thin air. I don’t foresee much pushback.

I’m of the belief that the reason the first two weeks of December in particular are so popular is that the point requirements are so low.

Sure, the weather is more bearable and there are Christmas decorations, but I am wholly convinced that if you swapped the point requirements of the first two weeks of December with the first two weeks of August, you would very suddenly see people clamoring for those 100+ degree days like they were free samples at Costco.

If I’ve learned anything, it’s that Disney timeshare owners love to stretch their points. Whether that means squeezing five into a studio, stalking a standard view, or walking a value room for weeks/months, the sense I get is that most owners would rather stay more often and will make adjustments to do that.

This reallocation very well could address some demand issues.

The hit my family will take to our early December trips will be gladly taken over what many of us here anticipated happening: either a reversion to the retracted 2020 chart or a slow roll over a few years to that end. This change may adversely affect owners personally, but there’s no indication it’s detrimental to the membership as a whole, not the way the retracted 2020 point charts were.

 

[CarolynFH]

I’m of the belief that the reason the first two weeks of December in particular are so popular is that the point requirements are so low.

Well, way back when the points charts were first created, park attendance and Disney resort occupancy really were low during those first two weeks of December. The parks were almost empty - it was a wonderful time to come! The points charts copied the resort seasons almost exactly, with prices for those two weeks that were very low to encourage people to come. So those point charts did their job, didn’t they?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well, way back when the points charts were first created, park attendance and Disney resort occupancy really were low during those first two weeks of December. The parks were almost empty - it was a wonderful time to come! The points charts copied the resort seasons almost exactly, with prices for those two weeks that were very low to encourage people to come. So those point charts did their job, didn’t they?

And a little help from the parks themselves that created more interest in that time for Christmas events.