2020 Point Charts

[mustinjourney]

I also suspect a change in 2021, but DVC will not leave the change up to some IT group playing with data and making invalid conclusions. It is true that studios have more demand than other rooms, with DVD being a primary cause -- selling 50 to 100 point contracts for the last 9 years while raising prices 100% over the same period, and then creating bungalows and cabins that few can afford the points for so DVD can sell more points to those who can afford only studios.

But high demand for studios is ultimately not the real problem. The problem is what everyone has actually known it has been for many years -- the demand for late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan time is excessive. Between the Monday after marathon weekend and late Sep, room availability is a lot better, including for studios -- BWV pool/garden, BRV, AKV standard and savanna view, SSR, OKW, Poly, and BLT lake view studios are usually open at 7 months out, even BCV and BLT theme park view studios are open 50% of the time at 7 months out, and VGF and BWV boardwalk view can be found about 30% of the time. Moreover, for some categories -- BWV standard, BLT standard, and AKV value and club level, it matters not what changes would be made because nothing is ever going to solve the high demand problems with those.

What is dictated by the actual data are the traditional seasonal changes. In other words, I suspect we are going to get changes over a two-year period (cannot change more than 20% in one year), where DVC finally bites the bullet and substantially raises points in the adventure and choice seasons that dominate the late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan period, set-off by a real lowering in the magic season and some in dream. Many members will gag at those changes but no one will be able to claim they are improper or not legally allowed, and one of the results will be a rise in 2BR and 1BR demand, particularly from Feb through August.

In your personal opinion, do you think the fall frenzy resulted BECAUSE DVC points were so low in the first place?

I guess my ultimate question is user demand a cause or effect of the point charts.

 

[mustinjourney]

I fear a reallocation of the seasons will be even worse than the reallocation of points chart....

don't think it could get much worse for the studios -- they increased them in every season in this last attempt. At least if they reallocated properly, the summers would likely come down a little. While I have no desire to go in the summer, and therefore, it would negatively affect me, I would be perfectly fine if that is what they decided to do. As of right now, it feels downright punitive to use your points in the summer. (e.g., 169 vs 125 points for a week in a standard view studio at VGF).

 

[Matty B13]

Wells Fargo's managers discussing revenue enhancement ideas were not considered privileged, and were made available to the plaintiffs.

“Revenue Enhancement” is this what they were calling ID thief and out right fraud, (would love to have been at those training meetings).

 

[DaveNan]

In your personal opinion, do you think the fall frenzy resulted BECAUSE DVC points were so low in the first place?

I guess my ultimate question is user demand a cause or effect of the point charts.

I think it is even self fulfilling at this point.

"We like to go because Wine and Food"
"We like to go because it has cooled off a bit"
"We like to go because it takes fewer points"
"We like to go because the Summer crowds are gone and school is back in session"

If history says we have time to book, we wait.
But when history tells us to book early, we book even earlier....

"We have to book early because of the Fall Frenzy"
"We'll book early, We'll book back-up times, We'll walk the reservations and overbook our stays....

 

[skier_pete]

In your personal opinion, do you think the fall frenzy resulted BECAUSE DVC points were so low in the first place?

I guess my ultimate question is user demand a cause or effect of the point charts.

In my opinion, it was a combination of the low point season and the addition of popular events like Food and Wine, the parties, and the Christmas decor. At this stage - I think if they raised the point totals for those times of year, it would be unlikely to dissuade most people. (Certainly not us - we go specifically for food and wine almost every year. The other festivals are nice but still don't compare.)

 

[hakepb]

In your personal opinion, do you think the fall frenzy resulted BECAUSE DVC points were so low in the first place?

I guess my ultimate question is user demand a cause or effect of the point charts.

I say Disney was almost too successful marketing fall to all guests.
It used to be an undesirable hurricane season, that needed free dining promos to bring in cash guests...but now, there’s no free dining in October, but there is free dining in July.

 

[Wakey]

I think DVC owners are value seekers, and it’s the low points that are the biggest driver, followed by festivals and weather (hurricanes aside). If they adjusted the points it would slow demand for sure. Summer is now too expensive v demand. Last summer I could even have had 2 weeks in AKL 1 bed value at 7 months, but I actually secured a 2 bed Boardwalk value, these are some of the most difficult rooms on site to get full stop.
Ironically the bonkers points reallocation was going to make those value 1 beds even cheaper.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

So if the points charts are reallocated with changes in the Adventure and Choice seasons, will that also include Riviera?

 

[Marionnette]

So if the points charts are reallocated with changes in the Adventure and Choice seasons, will that also include Riviera?

We haven't seen a Riviera points chart. Chances are good that DVC will "get it right" from the start and not need to do a points reallocation in 2021. Nothing would piss off a brand new Riviera owner more than to learn that they no longer have enough points to vacation the way they had expect to be able to when they signed on the dotted line.

 

[drusba]

In your personal opinion, do you think the fall frenzy resulted BECAUSE DVC points were so low in the first place?

I guess my ultimate question is user demand a cause or effect of the point charts.

It is a combination of factors but the lower points needed per night have been a prime cause. Go back many years long before there was an online reservation system, and before Disney expanded on its fall frenzy activities when Food & Wine lasted a short period, there was no Wine & Dine race, the Halloween nights were only for latter part of Oct, and Christmas decorations did not start until Thanksgiving, and even then members had problems at 7 months out during the fall months doing resort switches into near park resorts and some of the times, particularly the first two weeks of Dec, filled close to 11 months out. Those problems did not exist for the Feb through Aug period (even for holiday times) when points were higher.

Other factors have made fall demand worse since: (a) the aging population of members at some of the resorts creating a larger group that no longer needs to follow school schedules, and see Fall as ideal because of the low points, good weather and Disney fall activities; (b) Disney's expansion of fall events; (c) the growing online resale market which made it easy to sell low point contracts originally purchased as add-ons, adding to the group that only wanted use those points in the fall low point times; and (d) DVD's activities starting in 2009 -- lowering required new purchaser points to 50 to 100 and raising prices over a nine year period by 100% while creating high point per night cost resorts at VGF and Poly -- which created a large number of new owners that wanted to use their points in the lower cost fall season.

Nevertheless, a seasonal point change that would lower magic and dream season and raise adventure and choice so that the four are somewhat closer to each other would go a long way to making demand throughout the year somewhat more even, while of course making a large number of members very unhappy (but unable to assert the change was either improper or unnecessary in the interests of the members as a whole).

What has happened is that the basic seasonal point structure that still exists with spring break and summer as high seasons and fall as low has existed since OKW in the early 1990's, when that structure matched the Disney hotel demand seasons. Even in the 1990s DVC demand started to vary from that mainly because a large number of purchasers for DVC gravitated toward lower point times. Since then Disney has added all of the fall frenzy events, and the above-changes have occurred which totally separated DVC demand from Disney in general demand, and even Disney in general demand has changed significantly since. In other words, the existing seasonal point structure is now extremely outdated.

 

[keaster]

We tend to go mostly in March and late August due to school/sports/work schedules so a lowering of points in Magic season would be ideal for us!

 

[skier_pete]

It is a combination of factors but the lower points needed per night have been a prime cause. Go back many years long before there was an online reservation system, and before Disney expanded on its fall frenzy activities when Food & Wine lasted a short period, there was no Wine & Dine race, the Halloween nights were only for latter part of Oct, and Christmas decorations did not start until Thanksgiving, and even then members had problems at 7 months out during the fall months doing resort switches into near park resorts and some of the times, particularly the first two weeks of Dec, filled close to 11 months out. Those problems did not exist for the Feb through Aug period (even for holiday times) when points were higher.

Other factors have made fall demand worse since: (a) the aging population of members at some of the resorts creating a larger group that no longer needs to follow school schedules, and see Fall as ideal because of the low points, good weather and Disney fall activities; (b) Disney's expansion of fall events; (c) the growing online resale market which made it easy to sell low point contracts originally purchased as add-ons, adding to the group that only wanted use those points in the fall low point times; and (d) DVD's activities starting in 2009 -- lowering required new purchaser points to 50 to 100 and raising prices over a nine year period by 100% while creating high point per night cost resorts at VGF and Poly -- which created a large number of new owners that wanted to use their points in the lower cost fall season.

Nevertheless, a seasonal point change that would lower magic and dream season and raise adventure and choice so that the four are somewhat closer to each other would go a long way to making demand throughout the year somewhat more even, while of course making a large number of members very unhappy (but unable to assert the change was either improper or unnecessary in the interests of the members as a whole).

What has happened is that the basic seasonal point structure that still exists with spring break and summer as high seasons and fall as low has existed since OKW in the early 1990's, when that structure matched the Disney hotel demand seasons. Even in the 1990s DVC demand started to vary from that mainly because a large number of purchasers for DVC gravitated toward lower point times. Since then Disney has added all of the fall frenzy events, and the above-changes have occurred which totally separated DVC demand from Disney in general demand, and even Disney in general demand has changed significantly since. In other words, the existing seasonal point structure is now extremely outdated.

Agree with all of this. The one point I would make though is that this issue (the over-demand of the fall) has been going on for many,many years, certainly longer than I've been a member (since 2014) and they have yet to do anything about it. A small portion of the changes DID address this in these proposed charts (2-bedrooms being reduced in magic season) but they mostly raised sudios and 1-BDs across the boards - which would've done nothing to address the problem in those units, and in fact only made the problem worse. If they haven't addressed it to this point, are they really going to bother to do so? @drusba right - those first two weeks of December that are still part of the Advventure season are the two most popular DVC weeks by a landslide. Shifting those to higher points would get a LOT of complaints from members - but there would also be little to argue against it. They could easily do something as simple as "We are moving the first two weeks of December to Dream season, and the first two weeks of February to Adventure season." While it wouldn't drive everyone away from that time of year, it would definitely shift demand in a positive way.

It's one of the things that really stunned me about these changes - there's so many things they COULD do to balance demand that they haven't done, yet the thing they chose to do would do almost nothing to balance demand and simply put more breakage into Disney's pockets. They didn't even really veil it in a points balance.

 

[bobbiwoz]

For my part, Epcot’s Flower and Garden has always been more attractive than F&W, and sadly WDW has removed free workshops from F&G but I still have organized more gal trips for my friends for April/May, including one this year.

When I have organized my Gals trips in fall, it’s been for Halloween parties!

I agree that summers are less attractive but I love the 4 th of July celebrations there and have always appreciated that that’s not the highest point period!

 

[mustinjourney]

Agree with all of this. The one point I would make though is that this issue (the over-demand of the fall) has been going on for many,many years, certainly longer than I've been a member (since 2014) and they have yet to do anything about it. A small portion of the changes DID address this in these proposed charts (2-bedrooms being reduced in magic season) but they mostly raised sudios and 1-BDs across the boards - which would've done nothing to address the problem in those units, and in fact only made the problem worse. If they haven't addressed it to this point, are they really going to bother to do so? @drusba right - those first two weeks of December that are still part of the Advventure season are the two most popular DVC weeks by a landslide. Shifting those to higher points would get a LOT of complaints from members - but there would also be little to argue against it. They could easily do something as simple as "We are moving the first two weeks of December to Dream season, and the first two weeks of February to Adventure season." While it wouldn't drive everyone away from that time of year, it would definitely shift demand in a positive way.

It's one of the things that really stunned me about these changes - there's so many things they COULD do to balance demand that they haven't done, yet the thing they chose to do would do almost nothing to balance demand and simply put more breakage into Disney's pockets. They didn't even really veil it in a points balance.

I would actually like to go during the first 2 weeks of FEB -- so if they switched first two weeks of DEC for FEB I wouldn't complain. And this is coming from someone that has gone the last two years first week of DEC. I do like the XMAS decorations -- but I'm not a huge fan of MK being overrun by XMAS parties. It makes watching HEA awful since everyone is forced to watch it on like 3 days of the week. It's a madhouse.

 

[Cyberc1978]

We actually would like to go when it’s hot in July but as the point requirement is very high we go during May and September instead.

If we decide to go during July we either get a rci exchange for a 1br at SSR or stay at a hgvc resort in Orlando.

I would love to see Disney reallocate points across seasons so summer would be cheaper.

 

[Madame]

We would like to go earlier in August instead of having to go the last week right up to Labour Day which is the day before the kids & I all go back to school.

It sometimes seems like we spend our summer vacation waiting to go on vacation. Why don’t we? Point cost. Before DVC we used a convention rate for the same timeframe. There are many things they could do to start smoothing out demand...

 

[Cyberc1978]

We actually would like to go when it’s hot in July but as the point requirement is very high we go during May and September instead.

If we decide to go during July we either get a rci exchange for a 1br at SSR or stay at a hgvc resort in Orlando.

I would love to see Disney reallocate points across seasons so summer would be cheaper.

Just to add that even if it would be great to go in July it would also be much more expensive and that is a big down side.

In September points and airfare are low.
What’s not to like