11 month advantage poly

[jerseyduke]

Outside of the bungalow, what is everyone's guess to booking at the poly in the future at the 7 month mark?

With 300+ (360?) studios, that is an awful lot. And if there is a good potential for booking at the 7 month mark, there is little/no reason to buy there.

Since I am thinking about it, I wanted peoples opinions

 

[chalee94]

Outside of the bungalow, what is everyone's guess to booking at the poly in the future at the 7 month mark?

With 300+ (360?) studios, that is an awful lot. And if there is a good potential for booking at the 7 month mark, there is little/no reason to buy there.

as another poster pointed out, 360 is more studios than SSR. but demand will also be higher than SSR (unless the point cost is jarringly out of line with VGF and BLT).

probably have to wait and see. but my "guess" is that there will typically be availability at 7 months for a studio except peak booking periods. (personally i'd still prefer VGF for theming and BLT for walking access to the MK.)

 

[SugarLoaf]

I also think they may disappear more quickly if they are in fact all connecting. I'd guess not only studio people would be booking them, but two and three bedroom people as well, if they really want to be at the Poly. I also suppose maybe you could even have 4 or 5 connecting!

I personally always support buying where you want to stay most though. I love the security of knowing I won't have a problem being where I want to be. However, where I stay is the most important thing to me. I'm sure it isn't to everyone. So that just isn't a risk I want to ever take.

 

[tjkraz]

Many owners cannot (or will not) book before the 7-month window. Others will choose to use their Poly points for other resorts.

At most other resorts, the 7-month availability is spread among 3-4 different room sizes (Studio, 1B, 2B, 3B, etc.) It can also be spread among different views or room classes. The typical result is just a handful of available rooms in any given grouping. Trying to book a Standard View studio at BLT is very difficult at 7 months because there are so few of those rooms to begin with--and even fewer after owners get first crack.

With just the one villa size at Poly, there's likely to be a rather high number of rooms left for non-owners at 7 months. Even if owners book the Poly to 70-80% occupancy (which seems unlikely to me), there will be 70-110 Studios remaining for non-owners.

Demand will be higher than some other properties but it will still lead to decent success for owners who are jumping on-line right at 8am when the 7 month window arrives.

I wouldn't say there's no value to owning at Poly. Certain times of the year (early-December, naturally) will prompt higher demand. Seems likely Poly will have multiple views.

But if the goal is just to book ANY Deluxe Studio, I suspect Poly will be an easier get than the likes of Beach Club, BLT, VGF and either Standard or BW view at BWV.

 

[DebbieB]

I also think they may disappear more quickly if they are in fact all connecting. I'd guess not only studio people would be booking them, but two and three bedroom people as well, if they really want to be at the Poly. I also suppose maybe you could even have 4 or 5 connecting!

I personally always support buying where you want to stay most though. I love the security of knowing I won't have a problem being where I want to be. However, where I stay is the most important thing to me. I'm sure it isn't to everyone. So that just isn't a risk I want to ever take.

I would think the connecting would only be in pairs. I've never seen a hotel room with 2 connecting doors, usually the connecting room layouts are opposite each other.

 

[quinnc19]

I had been planning on adding on at the POLY but just sent an AKV contract to ROFR instead. I made this decision for 3 reasons: the number of studios should lead to some availability at 7 months, the high expected price per point, and the (IMO) underwhelming renovations to the GCH. I can always add on later if the experience of staying there exceeds expectations and I have trouble getting in at 7 months.

 

[jerseyduke]

That was my thinking as well. Do resale and adjust in a year if it doesn't look like it is going to work


I do not think you will be able to chain 5 studios together unless you want your neighbor walking into yours thru your bathroom

 

[Minniesgal]

I actually think it depends how expensive the points are when they sell them. If they are really expensive I'm not sure I see people buying points at the Poly and using them elsewhere. We are like that with our VGF points I always want to sue them at 11 months and only for home resort. I just don't see the point in buying expensive points and using them to stay at SSR when you could buy SSR almost half the price.

 

[tjkraz]

I actually think it depends how expensive the points are when they sell them. If they are really expensive I'm not sure I see people buying points at the Poly and using them elsewhere.

Sure they will. Only a fraction of owners are part of the uber-connected fanatics who worry about such things.

The vast majority of direct buyers aren't even aware of the resale option. They'll sit through Disney's spiel--hear about how even Poly pays for itself in 8-10 years--and purchase Poly because it's what's currently available.

There will be people who religiously book Poly at 11 months. But there will also be people who sample other properties every few years, don't book at 11 months, want a villa larger than a Studio for certain larger travel parties, etc.

With 360 studios available, Poly isn't going to be the resort that bucks all other trends and regularly books at 95-100% occupancy before 7 months.

 

[SugarLoaf]

That was my thinking as well. Do resale and adjust in a year if it doesn't look like it is going to work


I do not think you will be able to chain 5 studios together unless you want your neighbor walking into yours thru your bathroom

Good point. I hadn't really thought about the layout.

That's even more discouraging to me about the Poly, that you can't even get three rooms linked together that would really be like having a traditional two-bedroom.

 

[Msmithmd]

Good point. I hadn't really thought about the layout. That's even more discouraging to me about the Poly, that you can't even get three rooms linked together that would really be like having a traditional two-bedroom.

Sure you can. You just have to book one of those Pizza Hut Express buildings that they've put on stilts over the swamp.

 

[wdrl]

I suspect the PVB studios will have two booking/view categories, if not three. The top floor of the Moorea Longhouse on its north side will offer views of the Seven Seas Lagoon and the Magic Kingdom, so its possible that those studios will command a higher point premium. The Tokelau Longhouse, the south side of Moorea, and the northwest facing side of the Pago Pago Longhouse could fall into a "pool/garden" view category, which should be cheaper than Moorea's Lagoon view studios. The studios on Pago Pago's southeast side face a parking lot, so its possible that those studios will fall into a 'standard' view category and end up being the cheapest studios in the group.

PVB may play out like Aulani or BLT. Aulani is a large resort with 246 studios. However, only 18 of the 246 studios are in the Standard View booking category. At BLT, the Lake View studios -- the largest booking category at BLT -- are almost always available at the opening of the non-Home Resort window. But that is not the case for the less plentiful Theme Park and Standard View categories. If a member hopes to book a Standard View studio for more than the odd day or two, then they need the Home Resort advantage.

Pago Pago is the smallest of the three longhouses being converted to DVC. Thus, the number of Standard View studios will probably be relatively small. There could be real competition for these studios, especially if they are discounted significantly compared to the Pool/Garden or Lagoon booking categories.

Depending on what you want and what you are willing to settle for in a studio, there could be an argument in favor of buying at PVB in order to get the Home Resort advantage.

 

[SugarLoaf]

Sure you can. You just have to book one of those Pizza Hut Express buildings that they've put on stilts over the swamp.

LOL omg...they totally do look like that...hahahaha!

Personally, they look more cramped to me than a traditional two-bedroom.

 

[CarolMN]

I suspect the PVB studios will have two booking/view categories, if not three. The top floor of the Moorea Longhouse on its north side will offer views of the Seven Seas Lagoon and the Magic Kingdom, so its possible that those studios will command a higher point premium. The Tokelau Longhouse, the south side of Moorea, and the northwest facing side of the Pago Pago Longhouse could fall into a "pool/garden" view category, which should be cheaper than Moorea's Lagoon view studios. The studios on Pago Pago's southeast side face a parking lot, so its possible that those studios will fall into a 'standard' view category and end up being the cheapest studios in the group.

PVB may play out like Aulani or BLT. Aulani is a large resort with 246 studios. However, only 18 of the 246 studios are in the Standard View booking category. At BLT, the Lake View studios -- the largest booking category at BLT -- are almost always available at the opening of the non-Home Resort window. But that is not the case for the less plentiful Theme Park and Standard View categories. If a member hopes to book a Standard View studio for more than the odd day or two, then they need the Home Resort advantage.

Pago Pago is the smallest of the three longhouses being converted to DVC. Thus, the number of Standard View studios will probably be relatively small. There could be real competition for these studios, especially if they are discounted significantly compared to the Pool/Garden or Lagoon booking categories.

Depending on what you want and what you are willing to settle for in a studio, there could be an argument in favor of buying at PVB in order to get the Home Resort advantage.

I agree with you. If they don't have separate booking categories along the lines you suggest, they are going to have a lot of unhappy guests at the front desk (and some crabby CMs, too). I hope they have learned something from the BWV & BLT situations. Adjustments after the fact are more painful than setting things up properly from the beginning.

 

[luckyman_apd]

Sure you can. You just have to book one of those Pizza Hut Express buildings that they've put on stilts over the swamp.

I'm not sure which is the better quote here....the Pizza Hut express buildings......or Swamp. LOL That's friggin great. Could I please be there when you refer to the 7 seas lagoon as the Swamp to a Disney exec

I'm curious for a points chart and view categories. I know SOOOOO many people who love Poly....have almost always stayed there on their trips, and have asked me about DVC until I told them that there is no Poly DVC. I've never stayed there and I do wonder what everyone loves about it. With that many studios, and us being studio people, I can see us staying there. 360 rooms is incredible. Even IF VGF was available when I tried to book (it hasn't) I don't think we would stay there just because of how many points it requires. I'm not a GF fan....it's just not my cup of tea.

 

[Sur]

The "artists rendering" makes the water beneath the stilted Pizza Hut a pretty blue...not quite.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Honestly, I am not anticipating a challenge for Dream Season booking.

 

[J and R's mom]

Sure you can. You just have to book one of those Pizza Hut Express buildings that they've put on stilts over the swamp.

 

[beer dave]

The "artists rendering" makes the water beneath the stilted Pizza Hut a pretty blue...not quite.

Oh come on-- it will be like a real life jungle cruise.... when people start dropping food over the rail to feed the fish... and eventually the alligators.... It will be big news the first time an alligator climbs up on one of the decks....

 

[DougEMG]

Outside of the bungalow, what is everyone's guess to booking at the poly in the future at the 7 month mark?

With 300+ (360?) studios, that is an awful lot. And if there is a good potential for booking at the 7 month mark, there is little/no reason to buy there.

Since I am thinking about it, I wanted peoples opinions

Given the number of studios at the Poly I think it is going to be the easiest monorail resort to book a studio at the 7 month mark. Combine that with the price they'll probably charge, I don't think there is any need to buy there is all one wants is a studio.