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[i<3riviera]

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[Wedgeout]

Probably a dumb question but how quickly did VGF contracts go on resale compared to RVA? Without COVID, sales I’m guessing wouldn’t have dropped off. It’s a bit sad to see people already having to sell their RVA. I don’t think the resale restrictions are a factor to new buyers to DVC. Doubt resale is on their mind. However a current owner wanting to buy a new resort, to add to their portfolio, are not rushing to buy which slows sales.

 

[CastAStone]

recorded RVA points went down again relative to last week ...

week starting	RVA points recorded	percentile	week rank
2 Aug 2020​	4k​	21% (bottom)​	58th​
9 Aug 2020​	16k​	43% (middle)​	42nd​
16 Aug 2020​	13k​	38% (middle)​	46th​
23 Aug 2020​	11k​	35% (middle)​	48th​

the week starting 23 Aug 2020 was the 48th best selling week for all RVA sales (73 weeks from 7 Apr 2019 through 29 Aug 2020)

View attachment 522362

in other news, 85k points recorded across all resorts in August 2020 with one workday remaining ...

notes: assuming no deeds recorded on Sat 29 Aug 2020 (none of the other 9k deeds have been recorded on Sat or Sun); data for 26-28 Aug 2020 not proofed per Orange county (potential for changes between raw and proofed)
View attachment 522361
https://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp

85K is a bad month but it's not *so* far away from Pre-COVID to be shocking.

Interesting that only ~half the points they sold are for the resort they're actively selling. I assume a huge % of the buyers are therefore add-on. I look forward to your full write-up next month!

 

[ForWhomTheMouseTolls]

My add on Riviera contract is in there finally. Took seven weeks.

 

[sethschroeder]

My add on Riviera contract is in there finally. Took seven weeks.

Mine won't hit until December if not January because I did a 90 day split payment of 30/60/90.

Also since it doesn't close until then like another poster it means the contract remains open for a last minute change so if discounts get better (doubtful as I am at $155/point for 300 points I looked and doesn't look like even at release it was that low but could be wrong).

 

[sethschroeder]

85K is a bad month but it's not *so* far away from Pre-COVID to be shocking.

Interesting that only ~half the points they sold are for the resort they're actively selling. I assume a huge % of the buyers are therefore add-on. I look forward to your full write-up next month!

I think we have to account for 85k really being July (plus some July sales missing for things like delayed payments/closings). So lets possibly say there is another 15k unaccounted for.

Is 100k points in July bad or good in comparison to what we think it would be at? In comparison in December 2015 they actually only sold 93k points and thats without a pandemic and being shut for months.

 

[CastAStone]

I think we have to account for 85k really being July (plus some July sales missing for things like delayed payments/closings). So lets possibly say there is another 15k unaccounted for.

Is 100k points in July bad or good in comparison to what we think it would be at? In comparison in December 2015 they actually only sold 93k points and thats without a pandemic and being shut for months.

IIRC summer is high season and it’s probably half of expectations at best during a normal August. But if you asked me last month what August would bring (and I think you might have?) no way I would have said a number as high as 85,000.

 

[Lorana]

Mine won't hit until December if not January because I did a 90 day split payment of 30/60/90.

Also since it doesn't close until then like another poster it means the contract remains open for a last minute change so if discounts get better (doubtful as I am at $155/point for 300 points I looked and doesn't look like even at release it was that low but could be wrong).

My CCVs won’t close till Sep/Oct timeframe, and my new RIV not until late Nov/early December for the same reasons.

And yes current incentives are the lowest ever offered for Riviera. At opening 300 points dropped the price to $165.50 versus $155 now. Which is another reason we decided to buy in; the price per point was just a good value, and direct points means we can use them at the new DL Tower and any new resorts built between now and 2070.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[Wedgeout]

VGF's first deed was recorded 6 Jun 2013, the first and second resale deeds (owner to 3rd party) were recorded 30 Oct 2013 so ~5 months later
RVA's first deed was recorded 12 Apr 2019, the first resale deeds (owner to 3rd party) was recorded 7 Aug 2019 so ~4 months later

the first RVA deed sold resale was bought by a timeshare flipper (2.2k deeds in Orange County since 2002) for 100 USD per point; the exact same deed was sold again for 140 USD per point 84 days later, so that's something ...

one more RVA resale deed was added this week ...

recording date	#	points	USD per point	notes
7 Aug 2019​	1a​	175​	100​	bought by flipper​
30 Oct 2019​	1b​	175​	140​	sold by flipper​
18 Mar 2020​	2​	110​	139.1​	​
8 May 2020​	3​	412​	109.2​	​
2 Jun 2020​	4​	100​	135​	​
3 Jun 2020​	5​	125​	144​	​
11 Aug 2020​	6​	130​	135.4​	​
27 Aug 2020​	7​	175​	133.1​	​

Great information. Thanks

 

[The Jackal]

it looks like the tail of AKV was a bit longer and thicker for VGF than CCV has been for RVA; I couldn't find a table / chart for CCV but looking at a sample of months, CCV seems to make up a smaller % than AKV did

VGC sales are hard to get points sold (have to pay for access to deeds) but deed count was only in the single to low double digits

Weren’t they also selling AUL then too, and actually trying to sell it. So VGF was competing with AKV and AUL. DVC does not really try to push AUL today even though they are still seeking it and it’s been 8 years, I think the are around 50% sold out. RIV won’t be that bad, but with what has happened I don’t see it selling out in less than 3 years. Let’s not forget about the recession in 2008 that lingered on for years. In 2019 the economy was very strong.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

@i<3riviera (or anyone who knows these things), how many total points are there for Riviera and how many have been sold thus far? Is there a place to check this when I'm curious?

Ah - followed your links from the first page.
"In July 2020, 9,255 points were sold for Disney’s Riviera Resort. It has sold 1,435,292 points, about 21.3% of the resort’s 6.7 million total points."

 

[i<3riviera]

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[i<3riviera]

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[sethschroeder]

I can't find it but but do we have historical trends in direct points per month for all resorts combined? I had found that December 2015 month with like 90k points sold but wondering how this stakes up.

Be interesting to know what Disney is thinking as well. They might have just reduce the projected sales and are doing as well as they want to be right now with everything going on.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[Doberge]

Mine won't hit until December if not January because I did a 90 day split payment of 30/60/90.

My CCVs won’t close till Sep/Oct timeframe, and my new RIV not until late Nov/early December for the same reasons.

When do y'all have access to the points? Immediately or only after closing (months later)?

 

[sethschroeder]

When do y'all have access to the points? Immediately or only after closing (months later)?

Same day as signing the actual contract.

Might take an extra day or so if you are new member and they need to create you an account or something.

 

[Doberge]

Regarding Riviera as a percentage and whether ~50% RVA is concerns Disney, I'm leaning "not a problem" for two reasons. First, in combination with Copper Creek, "actively sold resorts" still count for +70% of sales. (Am I reading right no Aulani sales in August? Or are those only WDW sales?). Second, since it appears volume of sales is healthy-ish (but not great), I don't think Disney is concerned that people are opting to pay +$220 for resorts it's selling a second, third, fourth time or more. They're getting their money one way or the other and RVA sales aren't so bad that they need worry about the place being a black eye.

On a different front, when might we expect another Riviera room declaration, assuming it's based on percentage of sales?

 

[CastAStone]

(Am I reading right no Aulani sales in August? Or are those only WDW sales?)

What @i<3riviera is posting is only WDW. www.DVCNews.com publishes a writeup each month with Aulani VB and HHI included.