Why I think EMH is on the way out:
Again note: my arguments are not based on what I think is best for me or my family, my arguments on what I see Disney is thinking is best for their bottom line.
To be absolutely clear, I don't think that EMH is on the way out because of any Disney exec comments, its just my speculation regarding FP+ and what I think Disney hopes to achieve with this system. Also, you must understand that all of these suppositions rely on the fact that not only can Disney sell this prebooking in advance idea to the masses, in order for them to get a substantial return on their investment, they need a threshold percentage to participate.
I would think that it woud be somewhere between 70 and 80% of everybody, both onsite and off site. Many people will say this is not possible. I think its not only possible, but probable, not because I have a magic eightball, its because I think the Disney bean counters are some of the smartest people on the planet. And THEY must think this.
Asking people to prebook their fast passes up to 60 days in advance does several things for Disney
First, lets talk about the data gained by the prebooking of fast passes. Disney would now have an accurate prediction of how many people intend to visit Disney, they will also know which park they intend to visit each day. Right now, Disney probably has some algorithms figured out for on site resort guests, based on their bookings, and their dining reservations. But the off site guests, they would have close to zero data, unless of course the offsite person booked a ts inside a theme park..
Imagine then, if they can convince the off site people to give them more specific data for each and every day they intend to come. Why, Disney could accurately staff the theme parks, maybe even accurately staff the types of attractions at the theme parks (lot of people booked Peter Pan? better make sure this ride is fully staffed!)
Ok- just have to add this-I truly believe that the fp+ is the hook for the off site people. Disney has really ZERO data on them, and no stick or hook at this time. FP+ is the solution. If Disney was only interested in making this an on site resort perk, this system would not be tied to admission media, it would be tied to resort bookings. And they could have cut substantial costs by not having to put so many attractions, eateries, and shows 'on the grid.'
Disney NEEDS this data, and needs a psychological hold on off site guests. To start off though, it may just start with resort people, but its going to include everyone eventually, and soon.
Second, Disney can 'lead' the way people book their fast passes. Lets talk about Christmas for the extreme example. Its no news that on XMAS day, everybody seems to want to be in one of the 2 theme parks, MK or Epcot. These are the only 2 theme parks that typically reach maximum capacity and close the gates on xmas day. But, under this new system, when Sammy goes to prebook their fast passes, he notices that he cant get any 'good' fast passes booked for either mk, or epcot, but hey - animal kingdom has both 'legend of the lion king' and the yak and yeti available. Yehaa! Sammy cries, and now plans to go to AK on xmas day.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE BUILT IN ABILITY TO DISPERSE CROWDS ON MAXIMUM CAPACITY DAYS. Thats amazing, think about it. And if Disney can lessen to a slight degree the overall waits at MK and EPCOT on xmas day, and utilize Studios and AK more, then there will be slightly more time to spend money on food and souvenirs, ect, and slightly less frustration of being in the theme park on xmas day. Also, there would not be wasted cost of incorrectly staffing parks when MK is over used, and AK is under utilized.
This is very subtle crowd control. And during non peak times, or regular park days, its a wonderful way to spread out the crowds between the 4 different parks to lessen the lines everywhere. And, can I say it? Those magic bands look waterproof, and I am thinking eventually those little mickey readers will be showing up at both TL and BB. So, really, it can be crowd control between 6 different Disney parks. WOWZA. And if Disney has minimized the overall crowds between the 5 to 6 parks that are operating in a single day, on a DAILY BASIS, then they will have achieved their goal of allowing more spending to happen, and an overall lessening of lines at attractions, stores and food outlets..
Third, and this is beautiful. Disney can NOT ONLY spread the crowds out in the different theme parks, but they can also spread out the crowds that are in that particular theme park on any given day, and ALSO at any given time. How do they do this? By having the guests prebook the fast passes, Disney controls who goes where when. WOW. And, they will do this not only with the prebooking thing, but they will also do this with the 'here and now feature, or the potential extra fast pass feature. Those non planners that walk in the day of? They will select the here and now button, and presto, they are told to go to the least busiest part of the park to an attraction, or counter service, or a freakin show. The average guest will love this, and THEY will end up waiting substantially less time then left to their own devices (like a 2 hr line at space). Disney can also manage the number of fast passes available for certain attractions or eateries, or what have you, on the actual working day. Staff shortage at BTMRR? no extra fp's go into the here and now today, and any no shows fp will not be re-entered into the system.
How does this tie into EMH? Well, EMH works sorta like fp+, but not really. Disney can certainly predict which park will be busiest and staff it so according to the ehm schedule, so far the same. But it clumps huge crowds together, and does not disperse them throughout the park itself. At the same time, Disney has to staff 4 other parks even though EMH is sucking a majority of Onsite guests into its vacuum. That's not efficient, is it? Also, EMH operates with extended hours, and as we can see, Disney can have much better crowd control, not only within an individual park, but it spreads out crowds evenly between all parks with FP+ WITHOUT EXTENDED HOURS. . And... how much money would Disney save by not having to staff the longer EMH hours, especially in slow season, or even regular season. Chaching!
Both systems are 'crowd control' systems, but as you can see , both work against each other. Having both operate correctly at the same time seems counter productive. And, if Disney can get the 80% to play, I think its very easy to see why FP+ is WAAAAAAAYYYY better from Disney's standpoint.
Ok, I am such a geek. I get giddy when I think of the absolute subtleness of this system, and the potential for Disney. I think it is apparent how disney plans to 'shorten' lines overall, and how this is going to please the 'ignorant' masses. They, who previously rolled into MK at 10:30 am, would stand in line at Space for 2 hrs, be totally frustrated and hungry. They then would go to the nearest CS (after being turned away from any TS location they tried to do a walk up to) and wait in the lunch time rush, wasting another hour. Its now 1:30 and they try to go do BTTMR, and wait another hour and a half.
And we all know, because we have all talked to people that have done Disney wrong, that it happens a lot. Probably a big percentage of people are in this boat. Instead, with a click of the mouse, and an itinerary made 'just for them', they are going to have a much better, much more fun time. Disney is forcing them to be smart, without having to really educate them.
And Angel Ariel: the fact is you tried the mobile ap. What if it worked perfectly? What if everything was in place, and all you had to do is click on your ticket media button, and followed the prompts? Would you have booked the fast passes? I think many would have. There is also the 'toy' mentality we are all suckers for in our personal gadgets. I would be hard pressed not to get sucked in, even if i knew that it may be better to just do the old fp system while its still available.
Now, all you IT people can see the big hole in my argument. I live in Utopia, where the system will work flawlessly, at maximum potential. And given Disney's past IT history, plus what has been ongoing on these little tiny tests, there are some big question marks regarding this system, and even if it can get off the ground ever. So, if Disney cannot make this system operate close to flawlessly, it will lead to frustration (which we already see daily regarding this new app), then there is little hope they will get the masses on board.
But the idea is there. The potential is there. And if they can get the sucker to work. its going to make Disney an awful lot of money.