Zogby; New Poll Numbers

[DawnCt1]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

 

[DonaldDuckFamily]

New to the political arena and polls. Is the Zogby poll just another poll similar to the Rasmussen poll or Gallup poll?

 

[Disneynut25]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

OOOOOOHHHHH!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!!! Not the NASCAR voters!!!!!!
Oh well, back up the truck, it's a done deal, the race is all over. All the Obama supporters might as well stay home on Tuesday. I guess I better go out and find a job and sell my Kool Aid stand!

 

[DawnCt1]

New to the political arena and polls. Is the Zogby poll just another poll similar to the Rasmussen poll or Gallup poll?

Yes.

 

[bsnyder]

I don't think we can feel comfortable with any of the polling this year. There are too many of them, with such a wide variance, even among traditionally reputable outfits. They are all dependent, when they get to this stage of the election, on what their voter turnout model is. We won't know which pollsters chose the right mix of party ID until after the election.

Everyone should vote. For the candidate of their choice. And then let's count all the votes.

And if the Dems decide to once again put their faith in the exit polls, and they show an Obama win that turns into an Obama loss, please don't start with the "stolen election" crap. The exit polls aren't worth ****, especially this year....

 

[IDoDis]

Zogby is typically off the mark when compared to other polling organizations, missing by at least 8.6 points. What flavor of kool-aid are you drinking tonight, OP?

 

[loco4dis]

Given how the polls are so heavily slanted to the dems in party ID, one as big as Zogby admitting to a 1 point lead for McCain means McCain is probably 5 to 7 points up, and has been for a long, long time. Tuesday's going to be an interesting day…

 

[Liberty Belle]

Odd. I see them as having Obama up by 7.

 

[rentayenta]

The hockey mom, Neiman Marcus, hate spewing polls also have McCain and Palin winning. Looks like a done deal.

 

[Goofyluver]

Odd. I see them as having Obama up by 7.

Yea...I sense something "odd" as well.

 

[rentayenta]

Yea...I sense something "odd" as well.

Define odd...................................

 

[Goofyluver]

Define odd...................................

Bwahahahahahahahaaaaa.

Are you ready for this???

1. Not paired with another, or remaining over after a pairing; without a mate; unmatched; single; as, an odd shoe; an odd glove.

 

[yeartolate]

I have to be curious about polls nowadays.

Certainly 8 years ago, people had rarely given up their landlines.

4 years ago, some had given up their landlines.

Most people I know now are primarily using their cells, although most have a landline.

I am curious how this may skew polls.

 

[rentayenta]

Bwahahahahahahahaaaaa.

Are you ready for this???

1. Not paired with another, or remaining over after a pairing; without a mate; unmatched; single; as, an odd shoe; an odd glove.

Babe, you cannot make that up!!!!!!!

 

[bsnyder]

I have to be curious about polls nowadays.

Certainly 8 years ago, people had rarely given up their landlines.

4 years ago, some had given up their landlines.

Most people I know now are primarily using their cells, although most have a landline.

I am curious how this may skew polls.

yeartolate, most of the big pollsters include cell phones in their random sample now. But, I agree with your basic premise that the increase in cell phones as a primary phone might have an effect on polling accuracy. I don't think we have enough history yet to know what that effect is, and how pronounced.

 

[LaraK]

I think caller ID has a bigger impact on the polling. I can tell from the ring who is calling me. If it's not a "friend or family" kind of ring I completely ignore the phone. I don't even check the call waiting. I'm too busy to stop what I'm doing to deal with a call from someone I don't know, they can leave a message. Pollsters don't leave messages.

When I've talked to other moms I know, they say they do the same things.

 

[yeartolate]

I think caller ID has a bigger impact on the polling. I can tell from the ring who is calling me. If it's not a "friend or family" kind of ring I completely ignore the phone. I don't even check the call waiting. I'm too busy to stop what I'm doing to deal with a call from someone I don't know, they can leave a message. Pollsters don't leave messages.

When I've talked to other moms I know, they say they do the same things.

I had thought of cell phone effects, I hadn't considered caller ID.

 

[LaraK]

I had thought of cell phone effects, I hadn't considered caller ID.

I've been thinking about that this whole election season. The question becomes, is that a statistical wash or does it impact one way or another in terms of lean liberal versus lean conservative.

I don't know the answer to that, but it would make for a great research project.

BTW, I manipulate statistics and surveys for a living. I can create any result I want to based on my sampling methodology and the phrasing and order of my questions. Due to this, I put very little weight on polls.

 

[JCJRSmith]

www.zogby.com

10/30: Obama 50.1% McCain 43.1%

UTICA, New York—The race for President appeared to slip into neutral Thursday, as support for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain moved only slightly in the last 24 hours, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Part of one day’s worth of polling came after Obama’s 30-minute televised campaign pitch to voters on Wednesday, but voters didn’t seem to react one way or the other. The contest remained static with Obama garnering 50.1% support, compared to McCain’s 43.1%.

Undecideds or those who support other candidates increased slightly to 6.8% of the sample.

Even in the demographic subgroups, the race changed almost not at all. Including Election Day, there are five days left in the race.

 

[jeanadave]

The new poll numbers come from Drudge - Zogby's new poll #'s for tomorrow.