Zogby; New Poll Numbers

[djm99]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

Dawn you are tripping. Go directly on Zogby's website. Where are you getting these numbers. Part of one day’s worth of polling came after Obama’s 30-minute televised campaign pitch to voters on Wednesday, but voters didn’t seem to react one way or the other. The contest remained static with Obama garnering 50.1% support, compared to McCain’s 43.1%.

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

 

[corndog]

www.zogby.com

10/30: Obama 50.1% McCain 43.1%

So after today's results are factored in, it will be something like 48/46?

 

[corndog]

Dawn you are tripping. Go directly on Zogby's website. Where are you getting these numbers. Part of one day’s worth of polling came after Obama’s 30-minute televised campaign pitch to voters on Wednesday, but voters didn’t seem to react one way or the other. The contest remained static with Obama garnering 50.1% support, compared to McCain’s 43.1%.

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

Better reread that. They're talking about the Friday poll, which will be combined with the Wednesday and Thursday polls, and released 11/1/8 at 1 am, according to the Zogby site. That ought to make their results something like 48/46. I would be really surprised if Friday's result held for Saturday, though, considering where the numbers have been.

 

[djm99]

Spin, Spin, Spin

 

[corndog]

Spin, Spin, Spin

Where is the spin? It's just posting data points. No spin, no analysis. Just numbers.

Desperate times?

 

[yeartolate]

Dawn you are tripping. Go directly on Zogby's website. Where are you getting these numbers. Part of one day’s worth of polling came after Obama’s 30-minute televised campaign pitch to voters on Wednesday, but voters didn’t seem to react one way or the other. The contest remained static with Obama garnering 50.1% support, compared to McCain’s 43.1%.

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

Dawn's numbers are internally auto corrected to the right.

 

[corndog]

Dawn's numbers are internally auto corrected to the right.

Please read the post again, then wait until 1am.

 

[DISUNC]

As per Drudge report, who as a knack for BREAKING NEWS.

ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

http://www.drudgereport.com/

 

[SorcererDonald16]

The 1 point lead for McCain is the result of today's polling data for Zogby.

Because he does a 3-day rolling average, it will probably be a 3 or so point lead for Obama overall, down from 7 points today. Drudge gets the numbers early on some days and leaks them.

If you don't want to believe it, that's fine. Check Zogby's site around 1am and it will be there, listed under November 1st.

 

[Angelhalo]

Sooooo one day the polls mean "nothing" then the next, the are worth starting a thread about. Whats the deal? Do they only matter when they are saying what you want them to say?

 

[TCPluto]

Zogby is typically off the mark when compared to other polling organizations, missing by at least 8.6 points. What flavor of kool-aid are you drinking tonight, OP?

Really??? They were dead on in 2004 election......

 

[bsnyder]

Sooooo one day the polls mean "nothing" then the next, the are worth starting a thread about. Whats the deal? Do they only matter when they are saying what you want them to say?

Yep, just like they suddenly don't matter when they say what you don't want them to say.

 

[Alaska DogCat]

It's all about getting people to the polls. I believe it can still go either way.

Obviously, in the end am working to see that the energy of hope that I believe the Obama campaign represents will triumph over what I believe McCain's message of fear. In the end, we all have to believe in Democracy and Tuesday represents the closest thing we have to the ultimate expression of our faith in this system.

Get out and vote--no matter who you are voting for. The system works. At this point, it's no longer the polls--it's the vote.

 

[corndog]

Sooooo one day the polls mean "nothing" then the next, the are worth starting a thread about. Whats the deal? Do they only matter when they are saying what you want them to say?

I think it's noteworthy because it's such a stark contrast from the results of the last 5 weeks. No matter whom you support, this is an interesting development.

 

[TCPluto]

Sooooo one day the polls mean "nothing" then the next, the are worth starting a thread about. Whats the deal? Do they only matter when they are saying what you want them to say?

I don't know for sure, but that's what BO and his pal Joey's supporters having been saying.

 

[CarlaKay]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.htmlMatt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

 

[SorcererDonald16]

I think it's noteworthy because it's such a stark contrast from the results of the last 5 weeks. No matter whom you support, this is an interesting development.

ITA.

And there is another side effect from a poll like this. When the base of the Republican party sees a poll in our favor, I guarantee you many who were down in the dumps will say "Hey, we've got a shot to win this if we get out in high numbers and vote." It reenergizes them. And when the base is energized, the GOP ground game is a force to be reckoned with.

 

[JARNJ3]

Really??? They were dead on in 2004 election......

I thought Zogby predicted a Kerry win in 2004?

Some analysis by this new guy on the scene........

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Friday, October 31, 2008
Trick or Treat

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

We'll know for sure which polls were right on Election Night.......

But as so many of them show Obama leading - I tend to believe that prediction.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

 

[Laura]

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

 

[kydisneyfans]

We'll know for sure on Tuesday what poll was right.

Everything I have seen shows McCain making some headway into the Obama lead with independent voters making decisions now. My instinct says that uncommitted voters would vote McCain as they consist mainly of white working class voters weighing the messages of both. Joe the Plumber is the mantra of the McCain campaign now, making proposed tax policies come to real life. People are also not as mad now that gas is 1.99 again.

Even if McCain wins the election, he won't get too much done with the democratic do nothing Congess.