Your Predictions re Changes to DVC now that Iger is back as CEO

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Appreciated all of your work & the effort you made to clarify complex issues.

 

[gavvy]

I'm very interested in how Iger approaches the entire RCID issue.
I always wondered what he was thinking while Chapek was having to navigate that minefield.
We'll see...

I think if anything is done it will be done in private, Bob I is very good at playing politics.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

I would love that. We bought resale for 360 points. We would like to get the direct benefits but just couldn’t justify the cost when compared to resale. I would jump on it if I only had to buy 75 points.

My wife and are about to close on our first contract (resale). Last night, my wife commented that she wishes we would have bought direct instead. I pointed out that for what we are spending on our 220 points at Poly, we would only be able to get 170 at Riviera or Grand Floridian. She didn't complain after that. But I would be interested in buying a blue card in the future if Disney wanted to get some money out of resale DVC members.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

There's still the matter of the $1B in debt owed by RCID. While DeSantis has stated that the taxpayers will not be paying that debt, the legal documents related to the creation/dissolution of RCID state that the debt is transferred to the county or the future entity that operates facilities formerly owned by RCID. That puts Iger in a much stronger bargaining position than the Florida government. I suspect that there will be a RCID-II coming into existence, with only slightly less Disney control (e.g., a requirement to seat a county representative on the board).

The conspiracy theory in me wants to believe that the board cut a deal with Florida that if they bump out Chapek and put Iger back in (who you will note quickly moved to say he wants to get Disney out of the controversy playground), Florida will re-negotiate RCID. Not saying it's true, but Iger was always good at back room negotiations which Florida prefers as well. So, part of me could definitely see that happening.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

The conspiracy theory in me wants to believe that the board cut a deal with Florida that if they bump out Chapek and put Iger back in (who you will note quickly moved to say he wants to get Disney out of the controversy playground), Florida will re-negotiate RCID. Not saying it's true, but Iger was always good at back room negotiations which Florida prefers as well. So, part of me could definitely see that happening.

I'd bet you there is more truth to this than most think. This was the FIRST thing I thought about that Sunday night. Everybody involved in that fiasco needs an "out" and Iger can be the man to pull it off.

 

[GAN]

The conspiracy theory in me wants to believe that the board cut a deal with Florida that if they bump out Chapek and put Iger back in (who you will note quickly moved to say he wants to get Disney out of the controversy playground), Florida will re-negotiate RCID. Not saying it's true, but Iger was always good at back room negotiations which Florida prefers as well. So, part of me could definitely see that happening.

That’s assuming it was a bad deal for Disney -why would Iger re-negotiate something that is already to Disney‘s benefit. It’s fairly clear that the debt gets dumped on the next operator, and that’s not Disney if it stays as is. It‘s something that could be tied up in court for a long time, and I’m thinking Disney comes out the big winner either way..

 

[WilsonFlyer]

That’s assuming it was a bad deal for Disney -why would Iger re-negotiate something that is already to Disney‘s benefit. It’s fairly clear that the debt gets dumped on the next operator, and that’s not Disney if it stays as is. It‘s something that could be tied up in court for a long time, and I’m thinking Disney comes out the big winner either way..

There's a LOT more to it than that. It should be that simple, but it is not.

 

[GAN]

There's a LOT more to it than that. It should be that simple, but it is not.

The longer it drags out in court, the more it favors Disney. THIS is the WAY…..

 

[TiggerBouncy]

That’s assuming it was a bad deal for Disney -why would Iger re-negotiate something that is already to Disney‘s benefit. It’s fairly clear that the debt gets dumped on the next operator, and that’s not Disney if it stays as is. It‘s something that could be tied up in court for a long time, and I’m thinking Disney comes out the big winner either way..

Except Disney would then have to build to county regulations which would greatly slow down construction. They would have to do significant updates to existing infrastructure as well.

There would be a lot of additional fees they would have to pay. I'll give you a very minor example. On or last trip, we rode the peoplemover. My wife was in an ECV due to a knee injury and unable to walk more than a few steps. Well, out of nowhere, a freak lightening storm came requiring an evacuation of the ride. However, since my wife couldn't walk, Disney did not have the means to properly evacuate her. In comes RCFD to the rescue. The Disney CM's were telling us that RCFD is down there often to pull people off of coasters or rides that break down in mid track. I bet that Disney pays a ridiculously low cost for these services. I will also bet that if Disney did not own and operate RCID, those services would cost A LOT more. Plus, there would be fined imposed upon Disney for not maintaining their own crews to evacuate the rides, if not fines for the rides not being able to be evacuated.

These fines are likely more the nuisance though compared to the first point that it would inhibit what they can build and where and how much red tap it takes.

The 1B is a small fee compared to what Disney would give up.

 

[GAN]

Except Disney would then have to build to county regulations which would greatly slow down construction. They would have to do significant updates to existing infrastructure as well.

There would be a lot of additional fees they would have to pay. I'll give you a very minor example. On or last trip, we rode the peoplemover. My wife was in an ECV due to a knee injury and unable to walk more than a few steps. Well, out of nowhere, a freak lightening storm came requiring an evacuation of the ride. However, since my wife couldn't walk, Disney did not have the means to properly evacuate her. In comes RCFD to the rescue. The Disney CM's were telling us that RCFD is down there often to pull people off of coasters or rides that break down in mid track. I bet that Disney pays a ridiculously low cost for these services. I will also bet that if Disney did not own and operate RCID, those services would cost A LOT more. Plus, there would be fined imposed upon Disney for not maintaining their own crews to evacuate the rides, if not fines for the rides not being able to be evacuated.

These fines are likely more the nuisance though compared to the first point that it would inhibit what they can build and where and how much red tap it takes.

The 1B is a small fee compared to what Disney would give up.

I don’t disagree with some of those points. One thing I can bet on ….Disney has done their homework. The local governments -time will tell. Disney has already thoroughly looked into all of those angles.

 

[HashberryOTG]

Except Disney would then have to build to county regulations which would greatly slow down construction. They would have to do significant updates to existing infrastructure as well.

There would be a lot of additional fees they would have to pay. I'll give you a very minor example. On or last trip, we rode the peoplemover. My wife was in an ECV due to a knee injury and unable to walk more than a few steps. Well, out of nowhere, a freak lightening storm came requiring an evacuation of the ride. However, since my wife couldn't walk, Disney did not have the means to properly evacuate her. In comes RCFD to the rescue. The Disney CM's were telling us that RCFD is down there often to pull people off of coasters or rides that break down in mid track. I bet that Disney pays a ridiculously low cost for these services. I will also bet that if Disney did not own and operate RCID, those services would cost A LOT more. Plus, there would be fined imposed upon Disney for not maintaining their own crews to evacuate the rides, if not fines for the rides not being able to be evacuated.

These fines are likely more the nuisance though compared to the first point that it would inhibit what they can build and where and how much red tap it takes.

The 1B is a small fee compared to what Disney would give up.

It would also take services a lot more time to get there, and we all know they wouldn't take as much care with their surroundings.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I don’t disagree with some of those points. One thing I can bet on ….Disney has done their homework. The local governments -time will tell. Disney has already thoroughly looked into all of those angles.

I've no doubt. I just suspect that ultimately dissolving RCID completely and turning it over to legislators would not be in Disney's best interests. I also suspect Disney knows this and has done that calculation. The dissolution of RCID by Florida was an unintended consequence of the feud between Chapek and DeSantis. It was not something that Disney looked for or wanted. I would be surprised if they ever thought it was good for the company, much less if they believe it now, and I would be shocked if it was not near the top of Iger's list to "make it go away". The only thing that I am not sure of is how much renegotiating it will take Iger and what Disney will have to give up compared to where they were at before.

It would also take services a lot more time to get there, and we all know they wouldn't take as much care with their surroundings.

That's another good point. We had a bit of a chat with the RCFD as they were getting her off the peoplemover, and they were telling me what Disney does not allow them to do. Unsurprisingly, Disney has restrictions on just HOW you can get someone off a ride - not because of safety regulations, but because of optics. For example, I was told that RCFD is not allowed to bring in a truck, ladder, jump cushion, or any other tool that the public would see which would have guests jumping, sliding or in any way doing something which might be filmed and published on the web. They had to be as discrete as possible without compromising safety, which in this case meant wheeling her to a backstage location and then working very slowly to get her down the stairs, and then back through the park to where her ECV was. The CM's were there the entire time enforcing that no one recorded any of it. There is not a doubt in my mind that if it were up to the Fire Department, they would use to most convenient tool at their disposal, regardless of the wishes of the Mouse or who captures it on video.

 

[WAstateDVCDaddy]

There’s a report by the Financial Times that Florida lawmakers are working on reversing the legislation, and reinstating the RCID, with a few changes to the terms. Seems it is happening pretty closely with Iger’s return, so some behind the scenes negotiations may have been high on the priority list!

 

[TiggerBouncy]

The conspiracy theory in me wants to believe that the board cut a deal with Florida that if they bump out Chapek and put Iger back in <snip>, Florida will re-negotiate RCID.

There’s a report by the Financial Times that Florida lawmakers are working on reversing the legislation, and reinstating the RCID, with a few changes to the terms.

AAAANNNDDDD, there it is. Shoe, meet drop.

 

[CarolynFH]

There’s a report by the Financial Times that Florida lawmakers are working on reversing the legislation, and reinstating the RCID, with a few changes to the terms. Seems it is happening pretty closely with Iger’s return, so some behind the scenes negotiations may have been high on the priority list!

Yeah, but then there’s this: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/bu...s-report-u-turn-disneys-reedy-creek-rcna59803.

 

[Sandisw]

Since we do not want to see this thread go down the wrong path about RCID. and politics, please do not post opinions about why things may or may not be changing.

Comments that could be seen that way will be deleted.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Since we do not want to see this thread go down the wrong path about RCID. and politics, please do not post opinions about why things may or may not be changing.

Comments that could be seen that way will be deleted.

Keeping with that, and trying to steer back to topic.

I am hoping that there will be more pressure to make staying onsite relevant again. A lot of onsite benefits were lost after COVID, and the replacements are not really that sharp. This is not really a DVC specific thing since DVC really only inherits what the Deluxe Resorts get. But I feel that the value of what you pay for to stay on site has eroded, and the value of what you pay for when you stay at a deluxe resort compared to a value has eroded, and both of those injure the value proposition of DVC.

Historically, Iger has always been a "you get what you pay for" kind of person so has tried to boost higher value resorts with higher value enhancements (except for the Good Neighbor Hotels, which I have never been a fan of). He has also recognized DVC as being a growth area for the company.

Soooooo I am cautiously optimistic.

 

[Onceuponamarathon]

Going back to the original topic as well, here’s my .02. A lot of wish is admittedly wishful thinking.

DVC - Iger impacts:
—Availability of AP purchases for DVC owners. I understand we want to see AP back across the board, and I hope that happens. However, just doing AP for DVC alone seems like a win across the board. Not having AP is current hurdle for many potential new buyers of DVC. Offering AP would help overcome that hurdle and I think would create a small bump in sales while having a big effect on the morale and reassurance of current members that their loyalty will be acknowledged. The net sales probably wouldn’t be enough to impact parks at all. So Disney gets morale boost and a small sales boost, with minimal park impact.
—As mentioned by others, Iger excels in the negotiation and political aspects of the job. I think his handling of RCID will have some indirect downstream impacts on DVC in terms of building new resorts (reflections?). Maybe we’ll get more announcements, maybe things will move faster, etc. Just having more clarity on the RCID issue will allow DVD to move more intentionally.
—Igor’s negotiation skills again, but this time in the union conversations. Indirect impacts I hope to see are better staffing, which will result in improved experiences and upkeep of the resorts.



Park Impacts
—The imagineering conversation. I don’t know if imagineering should be in California, Florida, or a portion in both. What I do know is the announced move was handled poorly and with great impact to valuable current talent. If it is determined that Florida needs an imagineering division, or should even been the head of imagineering, than a robust transition strategy needs to be developed. That strategy will need to include attracting new talent to florida, time for people in cali to adjust and move, etc.
—Union negotation/CM staff. The parks are understaffed. Disney has barely gotten away with it with the park reservation system that gives them the data to estimate crowds and just barely cover them. I hope that Iger will up staffing and as part of all that resolve the Union conversation. Iger definitely understands that first and strongest advocate of Disney should be the CMs themselves. He made a big point of this in his book.
—Revisions to Genie+. I don’t think Iger will personally make these calls but I think he knows there are pricing and experience issues, and he will empowerment of D’Amaro to address them. We won’t magically go back to FP but I think some of the biggest problems can be addressed. I.e., no ability to preplan, how difficult it is to understand how the system works, etc.
—2pm park hoping time is gone. It‘s just a quick easy win that a lot of people want.

General Comments on Disney:
—Quick identification of a successor. Yes, Iger needs to stop the bleeding. However, he also needs to find a successor fast. He has 2 years before he steps down. The faster he finds a successor the faster they can train under him. This is especially critical if the successor comes from outside Disney and has no in-company experience.

General Comments on DVC:
—I don’t think DVC can rely on restrictions to promote direct. Especially since the latest DVC property of GF2 had none (tied to original GF DVC contract) and the poly tower situation is still in the air. If Poly is not restricted it starts to set an expectation that restricted points are something DVC has decided to move away from. The greatest value of direct as it stands is the ability to stay at future resorts. And the 2 resorts being built after Rivera may end up being availabile to anyone after all, which makes that value seem to be at the whim of DVC whenever a resort comes online. I want to see more value built into being direct.

 

[Artemis Fowl]

It's almost a little sad that we just want things back that we had for years - not even asking for anything new, just asking for things that we loved that were taken away. This would require no creativity on the part of Disney, and would make loyal customers (like DVC owners) instantly happy -
- bring back AP's - sold w/ DVC discount AND includes memory maker
- bring back magical express
- bring back FP and dump Genie +
- no more park reservations, and definitely no limits on park hopping

Just 3 years ago, we had all of these things, the Disney company was doing well.

The DME was the thing that hurt the most when it was removed. When we had that, I felt like vacation started at my departing airport since I didn't need to think about it again until I was in my room. Of all the things, that's the one I want back most.

 

[Artemis Fowl]

Of maybe they can do a hybrid of FP+ and GP+,?

Allowing some rides done ahead..less popular with other day of?

The genie + never made much sense to me. They should give the free 3 fast passes back and add an express lane like Universal for $100/day or whatever. No tech support for a special line, the poeple that can't afford the express pass would still have what they had, and Disney can cash in on those willing to pay the extra.