Yet another theory about GE crowds

[Davey Jones II]

On another site`s crowd calendars, they opined that the opening months at GE won`t be quite as frenzied as expected until Rise of the Resistance opens. So here`s my theory: while GE will, of course, be very popular from day one, I don`t think that a lot of people will be changing their vacation plans specifically to be there for the first weeks or months of GE. However, after the signature E Ticket opens, that`s when people will be building their trips around THAT opening. That`s because the land won`t be complete until ROTR is ready to start people eating!

What do you all think?

 

[barb969]

On another site`s crowd calendars, they opined that the opening months at GE won`t be quite as frenzied as expected until Rise of the Resistance opens. So here`s my theory: while GE will, of course, be very popular from day one, I don`t think that a lot of people will be changing their vacation plans specifically to be there for the first weeks or months of GE. However, after the signature E Ticket opens, that`s when people will be building their trips around THAT opening. That`s because the land won`t be complete until ROTR is ready to start people eating!

What do you all think?

I agree!

 

[Carolynleanne]

I hope you're right! I'll be there the 7-9th

 

[HopperFan]

My opinion re: WDW and I can't imagine it any different for DL. It's going to be packed. There are folks that want to see it as soon as possible for themselves. The draw will be the imagineering, the land, the shops, the dining etc. They won't care about only doing one ride. And they will be back when the second ride opens.

I don't believe for one minute the better ride couldn't be ready on time. I think this was very deliberate of Disney to create two floods of visitors filling hotels and parks. The WDW daily EMH through October is to draw people in with the advantage and I'm sure it will work.

I am dismayed that it will open during my already planned week to be at Disney. At this point we will do DHS early in week and avoid the chaos opening will bring. If I were going anytime after opening day I would plan on huge crowds without much break for quite a while.

 

[Davey Jones II]

My opinion re: WDW and I can't imagine it any different for DL. It's going to be packed. There are folks that want to see it as soon as possible for themselves. The draw will be the imagineering, the land, the shops, the dining etc. They won't care about only doing one ride. And they will be back when the second ride opens.

I don't believe for one minute the better ride couldn't be ready on time. I think this was very deliberate of Disney to create two floods of visitors filling hotels and parks. The WDW daily EMH through October is to draw people in with the advantage and I'm sure it will work.

I am dismayed that it will open during my already planned week to be at Disney. At this point we will do DHS early in week and avoid the chaos opening will bring. If I were going anytime after opening day I would plan on huge crowds without much break for quite a while.

You may be right, but honestly, I don`t see it. If someone wants to build a trip around GE, why not wait for ROTR to open? After all, it`s opening this year, not in some distant future. And if someone gets to experience GE with just Smuggler`s Run, are they really going to plan another WDW trip just to experience one ride?

Of course, if a family goes to WDW once or twice a year, the opening of ROTR will be an added incentive, but they`re not changing their travel plans to experience the ride -- they go annually or every two years anyway.

I`ve read a lot of posts saying something like "I was hoping to miss the opening of GE" or "We considered changing our plans to avoid it", but few or none saying that they changed their plans in order to be there in the first months. However, when the land is complete, that will be an irresistable lure.

Finally, for the real Star Wars fanatic (as opposed to theme park fan), if you want to be among the first to experience GE, Disneyland is the place. I think WDW fans keep coming partially or largely because of the new goodies that keep opening up, but it`s about the resort, not about individual lands, attractions, or franchises like Star Wars.

 

[hertamaniac]

I am in the camp that RotR was not designed to be delayed, initially. I feel that once the technological hurdles were going to jeopardize the synchronized opening with Smuggler's Run, Disney Marketing jumped in and said, let's do a phased opening. So this would lead to two (2) separate guest waves and all the revenue associated with it.

Extending it further to Hollywood Studios, I also think that Mickey and Minnie's attraction got pushed out to create a smaller, but yet another guest wave. That's potentially three (3) separate revenue grabs at the same park within months of each other. That's smart marketing although the ethical side of me questions it if this is true (which I do).

 

[DLgal]

My opinion re: WDW and I can't imagine it any different for DL. It's going to be packed. There are folks that want to see it as soon as possible for themselves. The draw will be the imagineering, the land, the shops, the dining etc. They won't care about only doing one ride. And they will be back when the second ride opens.

I don't believe for one minute the better ride couldn't be ready on time. I think this was very deliberate of Disney to create two floods of visitors filling hotels and parks. The WDW daily EMH through October is to draw people in with the advantage and I'm sure it will work.

Except people aren't booking the hotels. Bookings are low. At Disneyland, even with the promise of a reservation to enter the land, they couldn't book out the onsite hotels. Room availability after the reservation period is even better. There are rooms galore all summer on DL property and in the offsite hotels as well. I just scored a heavily discounted room at the Disneyland hotel over 4th of July. I literally booked it 3 days ago and there was SO MUCH availability even using the military discount, which is notoriously hard to do so last minute.

And now, Disneyland just announced the return of Soarin Over California at DCA for the month of June. They are trying to ENTICE PEOPLE to come. That seems a bit odd, don't you think? If there were going to be literal FLOODS of visitors to the resort complex, why would they create even more incentive to come? The introduction of the new Flex AP is also a major clue that Disney is expecting lower numbers in the coming year.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Except people aren't booking the hotels. Bookings are low. At Disneyland, even with the promise of a reservation to enter the land, they couldn't book out the onsite hotels. Room availability after the reservation period is even better. There are rooms galore all summer on DL property and in the offsite hotels as well. I just scored a heavily discounted room at the Disneyland hotel over 4th of July. I literally booked it 3 days ago and there was SO MUCH availability even using the military discount, which is notoriously hard to do so last minute.

And now, Disneyland just announced the return of Soarin Over California at DCA for the month of June. They are trying to ENTICE PEOPLE to come. That seems a bit odd, don't you think? If there were going to be literal FLOODS of visitors to the resort complex, why would they create even more incentive to come? The introduction of the new Flex AP is also a major clue that Disney is expecting lower numbers in the coming year.

thought I think the return of Soarin' over California is more to get people away from DLR and over to DCA moreso than to get people to come to the complex at all

 

[DLgal]

thought I think the return of Soarin' over California is more to get people away from DLR and over to DCA moreso than to get people to come to the complex at all

Yeah, maybe, but then why only for one month?

 

[dizneefan13]

I also think the delay of RotR was part of their plan. I mean, maybe there were some setback and then Disney went with it and decided the delay of the second ride could work to their advantage. SW lovers coming back a second time for the ride. But who knows. Only time will tell. I kind of hope their predictions are off. I know I'm not going near GE until I see what impact its having on attendance. I'm not a big SW fan.

 

[andyw715]

If a large % of the land is ready/going to be, why wait to open?

 

[andyw715]

Maybe there should be a fandom entrance exam for the first few years. Don't know enough about SW? Sorry, to the back of the line you go.

 

[HopperFan]

Except people aren't booking the hotels. Bookings are low. At Disneyland, even with the promise of a reservation to enter the land, they couldn't book out the onsite hotels. Room availability after the reservation period is even better. There are rooms galore all summer on DL property and in the offsite hotels as well. I just scored a heavily discounted room at the Disneyland hotel over 4th of July. I literally booked it 3 days ago and there was SO MUCH availability even using the military discount, which is notoriously hard to do so last minute.

And now, Disneyland just announced the return of Soarin Over California at DCA for the month of June. They are trying to ENTICE PEOPLE to come. That seems a bit odd, don't you think? If there were going to be literal FLOODS of visitors to the resort complex, why would they create even more incentive to come? The introduction of the new Flex AP is also a major clue that Disney is expecting lower numbers in the coming year.

I think the numbers game is more complicated than it appears on the surface. Disney's goal is 100% occupancy, especially at WDW, which if they come close to, means the parks couldn't possibly handle the crowds once you factor in the greater number from offsite hotels. I have been pricing offsite WDW hotels after Labor Day ... the prices are much higher than they were last year (I go every fall) which tells me their bookings are up since they adjust their rate as their rooms fill up.

Just seeing how Pandora was, with a virtual no fan base IP, there is no way I will be convinced that SWL won't be a cluster of humanity. It's new, it's high level imagineering, it's highly immersive AND it's a world wide huge fan base (and am sure most would prefer WDW over DL). I think it's one reason they aren't opening both rides. It gives them two shots at filling rooms and it spreads the crowds over the first few months. I would love to be proved wrong and we may have a shot of seeing it but ..... not holding my breath.

DL is a different animal and I don't pretend to know it's workings other than it's guests are a whole different makeup than WDW. With only two parks and nothing else to do there are MANY who won't even bother to spend the money to get there. And since the two SWL are clones, it would make more sense to travel to WDW where there is so much more to do.

RE: Soarin' ... well, the new movie is awful, so not like it's hard to see like the old one was. I think they are running it because it is in California Adventure and they are probably hoping to lure some of the guests out of Disneyland. To me it just says they expect Disneyland to be packed.

 

[rteetz]

I also think the delay of RotR was part of their plan. I mean, maybe there were some setback and then Disney went with it and decided the delay of the second ride could work to their advantage. SW lovers coming back a second time for the ride. But who knows. Only time will tell. I kind of hope their predictions are off. I know I'm not going near GE until I see what impact its having on attendance. I'm not a big SW fan.

There definitely was a set back but I also think the rest was done earlier than maybe originally planned so why wait.

 

[jdsWDfan52]

On another site`s crowd calendars, they opined that the opening months at GE won`t be quite as frenzied as expected until Rise of the Resistance opens. So here`s my theory: while GE will, of course, be very popular from day one, I don`t think that a lot of people will be changing their vacation plans specifically to be there for the first weeks or months of GE. However, after the signature E Ticket opens, that`s when people will be building their trips around THAT opening. That`s because the land won`t be complete until ROTR is ready to start people eating!

What do you all think?

We been here a week now , yesterday was the start of Memorial day weekend, and the parks seem as crowded as last year. Magic Kingdom was packed, 30 minutes to just get on the people movers at peak time during the day. I think it is going to be insane when Galaxy's edge opens and with the added rooms Disney extra magic hours will be a wash.

 

[Missyrose]

the prices are much higher than they were last year (I go every fall) which tells me their bookings are up since they adjust their rate as their rooms fill up.

Prices are up over last year, yes. But rack rates are static once they are set for the year. DCL increases prices as it fills, Disney resorts don't.

 

[Therich84]

Well I booked the paradise pier hotel a few months ago when I heard about the guaranteed GE reservation. I received a call the other day from disney and they said they oversold the hotel during my trip June 7-11th. They offered me a free upgrade to the Grand Californian which I of course accepted. So it definitely isn't sold out. But I think price has something to do with that. My original room was 410 a night which is reasonable, the new one is 750 a night. I can see people not wanting to spend that much to then have to come back for ROTR especially if they are more of a SW fan over being a Disney fan.

 

[Dawn&Vernard]

We're WDW pass holders and I was at AK for opening day of Pandora, we booked a room for two nights because Disney had EMH at AK until 1 AM! When arrived at the park the line just to get in to the land was at the front entrance at late afternoon! We did get into the land at night and and we din't go on any rides that but did wait in a line to get in the gift shop and had dinner in the land.

I think it's going to be a good mix of those who just want to be 1st on the ride and those that just want to be at the park on opening day don't really care about the rides it's about just being in the new land and exploring as much as they can.
I really hope WDW does the virtual line!

 

[Darklord77]

If a large % of the land is ready/going to be, why wait to open?

There definitely was a set back but I also think the rest was done earlier than maybe originally planned so why wait.

My feelings also. I think the one ride was still in progress, but the rest of the land was done on time or early. Disney had the good idea of just opening it up, minus one ride, to start making some cash. People will come no matter what.

 

[t3hWheez]

This is exactly what we are planning to do. Once RotR opens we will do a one day trip just to check it out, nothing crazy with the sole purpose to only do Galaxy's Edge.