Yes, I understand the risks of banking, but this change of plans was not our fault.

[dismedvc]

My suggestion would be to book 2021 reservations sooner rather than later and make sure they are booked in the part of your use year that can be canceled and still banked. It's the only type of "free" trip insurance DVC members have.

Totally agree. We booked a trip in early March 2021 at exactly the 11 month mark (We have an August UY)

The problem I see down the road is that since there could potentially be 2 years of points chasing 1 year of rooms, a lot more members will start "walking" reservations, so availability might become very limited, or even nonexistent, even at the 11 month mark.
It is one thing if a member cannot get a reservation for NYE at the 11 month mark, but if the norm becomes it is difficult to get a reservation at the 11 month mark for most of the year, DVCM will need to do something.

 

[LAX]

Why does a solution have to be painful at all?
Alter the 7 month point charts so u pay a premium to "swap out" for a bit. Change the Disney collection point charts for a bit and wave the fee. If I can get a room at resort X over a studio at Resort x-villas for the same points...I'd do it to help the cause. Make it one point cheaper and throw on a few fast passes and ill run for it! I'm pretty confident they are going to have empty hotel rooms for quite a while.

I am not arguing these are bad ideas, but they do cause "pain." Paying a premium to swap out at 7 months is added burden to those that like to try other resorts (pain to those owners). Changing point charts for Disney collection and waiving fees reduce revenue for DVC/Disney, which in turn decreases value to shareholders (pain to them). This unfortunate pandemic does cause pain (financial, emotional, physical, etc.), which affect many people in different ways and magnitudes. I just don't agree with the narrative that it's only "fair" to share the pain, especially when people make decisions such as traveling one month prior to the end of their UY with banked points.

LAX

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

They may be able to figure it out but remember, points bought after 2011 cant use the Disney Collection. Can they legally change that part of the program for some points and not others? I don’t know but I’d be surprised if they could

You're forgetting the part of the contract "we can change whatever we want". It's their own sales tool that means those restrictions even exist. It's not a law.

 

[Sandisw]

You're forgetting the part of the contract "we can change whatever we want". It's their own sales tool that means those restrictions even exist. It's not a law.

I know they have the power to change it, but they still made it a legal change to the system, just like they did with the RIV restrictions.

They can rescind it, but my question was whether they can do it only for those losing points, or would it have to apply to all resale points. if they have to change, even temporarily for all, it would go against the reason, as you say, sales.

Just pointing out that offering the Disney Collection to those losing points is not simple, given the current rules for many of the points out there,

 

[TraderSamWDW]

I am not arguing these are bad ideas, but they do cause "pain." Paying a premium to swap out at 7 months is added burden to those that like to try other resorts (pain to those owners). Changing point charts for Disney collection and waiving fees reduce revenue for DVC/Disney, which in turn decreases value to shareholders (pain to them). This unfortunate pandemic does cause pain (financial, emotional, physical, etc.), which affect many people in different ways and magnitudes. I just don't agree with the narrative that it's only "fair" to share the pain, especially when people make decisions such as traveling one month prior to the end of their UY with banked points.

LAX

I agree with the "pain" of the 7 month swap out - but at least it is an optional pain. no pain if you book at your home resort. I will take optional pain over mandatory - and again, temporary, so if you want to try another resort, you have to pay a tad more this year.

My thoughts about the Disney collection are based on certain assumptions that would have to be true (if they arent then the theory falls apart), but my contention is it will not decrease revenue nor shareholder value but increase them (or at least could)

If Disney's hotel occupancy rate falls in the near term (and I think it is going to fall - A LOT) then there are rooms that are going unused. If this assumption is wrong then nothing else matters, and its all moot.

Right now, if I do not use my points and they expire then Disney gets breakage income by renting out the room for cash, plus it keeps the number of people on property about constant (maybe more people end up in "my" room, maybe less, no way to tell) This is the norm.

However, with an excess of points now in 2021, if I dont use my points because there is simply no inventory, Disney does not get the breakage income because there was no room to rent - it sat vacant in April of 2020. Secondly, I was looking to come to WDW and spend money, and now do not have "my" room. So I dont go. I do not know about you and your party or anyone elses, but I know when I go down there for a week (annual passes are already paid for) but between food, cocktails, entertainment I am dropping over a grand easy. So Disney will or could lose this revenue because I do not "have" my room.

Now if they instead say, Trader Sam, you can switch out to a room in Wilderness Lodge for that week for the same price as your boulder ridge studio would have been - well now I am on property spending north of a grand. They are incurring a cost because now they do need housekeeping for that room - which they could do on DVC schedules - but even daily, the expense they are incurring is less than the PROFIT they are making off of me that day.

Of course this assumes that that room would have been empty otherwise. And if hotel occupancy tanks to like 70 percent it will be.

Think of Vegas comping people - they arent doing it to lose money. Sometimes you give something away for free to make MORE money.

If the conditions are right, Disney could do this to increase revenue, profit, and customer satisfaction.

Of course if hotel occupancy continues like it did in 2019 at 90+ percent, please ignore this post.

ETA: Laughing at the notion of going to WDW for a week and spending only a grand...yea....right!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I know they have the power to change it, but they still made it a legal change to the system, just like they did with the RIV restrictions.

They can rescind it, but my question was whether they can do it only for those losing points, or would it have to apply to all resale points. if they have to change, even temporarily for all, it would go against the reason, as you say, sales.

Just pointing out that offering the Disney Collection to those losing points is not simple, given the current rules for many of the points out there,

It's still the same answer though - they can make pretty much any changes they want to in regards to "perks". ie - there's no more of a legal restriction to making a change now vs what they have done since 2011. Or maybe they turn this into the opportunity to allow resale buyers to pay to make their points unrestricted. Get those losing points to pay DVC even more to not lose the points. It would turn off some put I'm sure they could just market it ad nauseum of how they helped owners by giving them that opportunity. Or come up with some new fee beyond the $95 fee that allows the one time conversion.

IMO there are better ways akin to what we've discussed happens in offering a comparable accommodations when a unit is out of commission because of damage but I don't see much legally that they can't overcome to allow these points to be used as long as they are willing to work something else out. That's the big question though - how willing are they?

 

[TraderSamWDW]

and the people who do not qualify to use the disney collection dont have to use it.
I have qualified points and I will, and that frees up inventory and points can be saved. someone with non qualified points can now use "my" room.

(again, this all assumes hotel occupancy tanks)

 

[Sandisw]

It's still the same answer though - they can make pretty much any changes they want to in regards to "perks". ie - there's no more of a legal restriction to making a change now vs what they have done since 2011. Or maybe they turn this into the opportunity to allow resale buyers to pay to make their points unrestricted. Get those losing points to pay DVC even more to not lose the points. It would turn off some put I'm sure they could just market it ad nauseum of how they helped owners by giving them that opportunity. Or come up with some new fee beyond the $95 fee that allows the one time conversion.

IMO there are better ways akin to what we've discussed happens in offering a comparable accommodations when a unit is out of commission because of damage but I don't see much legally that they can't overcome to allow these points to be used as long as they are willing to work something else out.

Like I said, my question was can they change the requirements for some resale points and not all.

All of the suggestions using the Disney collection....which is all I was referring to..requires DVCM to change the program tremendously...with Disney’s approval.. because right now, only certain points can be used, and those trades only happen when a DVC room goes with it to offset the cost,

Yes, anything can be done but only if Disney is willing to give up substantial revenue that will be lost from those trades. IMO, I am not convinced that is going to be easy to accomplish and I see Disney offering much better discounts to fill the resorts with cash guests, rather then giving the rooms over to DVC for free,

Of course, none of us are involved in what happens, so all we can do is wait and see. The fact they are now recommending RCI, my sense tells me major changes to the use of the Disney collection is much less likely

 

[Sandisw]

and the people who do not qualify to use the disney collection dont have to use it.
I have qualified points and I will, and that frees up inventory and points can be saved. someone with non qualified points can now use "my" room.

(again, this all assumes hotel occupancy tanks)

You are right, this would all depend on Disney deciding that deep discounts to cash guests would earn them less than turning over the rooms for free to DVC.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

You right, this would all depend on Disney deciding that deep discounts to cash guests would earn them less than turning over the rooms for free to DVC.

Of course, but my thought processes is that its not just a cash/price issue right now. People are scared. If it were purely economical they could probably offer a deep enough discount to keep hotel occupancy up. But now, if people are not willing to go to a place that hosts such crowds, cash discounts will not matter, it will still not entice people.
Disney came up with a solution when they got hit by the fuel crisis in the late 70s. The got past 9/11 and the great recession.

This could be like the great recession and 9/11 combined. People simply not wanting/willing to travel (like post 9/11), coupled with a lot of people not being able to afford it (great recession). I hope Im wrong and life goes on almost like normal, but I can see Disney's hotel rooms just being quite empty for a year or two. If so, it puts an arrow in their quiver. Maybe not the one to use, but its there.

 

[Sandisw]

Of course, but my thought processes is that its not just a cash/price issue right now. People are scared. If it were purely economical they could probably offer a deep enough discount to keep hotel occupancy up. But now, if people are not willing to go to a place that hosts such crowds, cash discounts will not matter, it will still not entice people.
Disney came up with a solution when they got hit by the fuel crisis in the late 70s. The got past 9/11 and the great recession.

This could be like the great recession and 9/11 combined. People simply not wanting/willing to travel (like post 9/11), coupled with a lot of people not being able to afford it (great recession). I hope Im wrong and life goes on almost like normal, but I can see Disney's hotel rooms just being quite empty for a year or two. If so, it puts an arrow in their quiver. Maybe not the one to use, but its there.

If cash guests won’t go, then the same would be true of some DVC members.

No one knows what will happen. I guess I was just trying to point out going down this road is complex and requires Disney absorb the loss for the benefit of DVC owners,

They may or may not, but I’m more inclined to think that nothing will be done for expiring points in terms of keeping them in the system.

If anything, I see them being offered heavily discounted cash rooms, or being reimbursed for MFs,

Of course, it’s all speculation and only DVCM senior management knows the plan.

 

[icc2515]

Sarcasm <Well it appears as if it has only scared off people who rent 1 bedrooms, some grand villas, and of course the bungalows.> I would say the availability for the summer is about the same as usual DVC members don't scare easy (or do we just know we can't move our vacation to Oct-Dec because there is never any availability then). I know I am holding onto my July reservation until Disney pulls it out out of my Nitrile gloved hand. Mainly because of an Aug UY and unbankable points.

 

[Doug Olsen]

I know they have the power to change it, but they still made it a legal change to the system, just like they did with the RIV restrictions.

They can rescind it, but my question was whether they can do it only for those losing points, or would it have to apply to all resale points. if they have to change, even temporarily for all, it would go against the reason, as you say, sales.

Just pointing out that offering the Disney Collection to those losing points is not simple, given the current rules for many of the points out there,

I have been thinking that opening up Disney Collection opportunities could/would be a significant help to members (especially those with expiring points) and overall availability.

Your points regarding it not being a unilateral DVC decision and not the most straightforward process make perfect sense.

I wonder though, if this really would be a negative on direct sales.

Similar to how airlines and other industries have tweaked existing policies, I think it can easily be explained as a temporary measure- not something to be expected going forward.

Obviously it will be of benefit to direct owners (as it would all owners) in opening availability that much more as others move points to the Collection.

Then I wonder how many sales presentations have people in the weeds of examining the options and value propositions of trading into the Collection. But even if more do than I realize, I think this could be spun as a positive.
A good will gesture that goes above and beyond to take care of their members during unprecedented circumstances. That inspires brand and program confidence to me- along the same lines of how so many reference the strong resale market being a selling point for direct.

Anyway, there would certainly have to be interdepartmental agreements that may never be realistic. But I see it as nothing but positive for membership and even DVD if it can be worked out.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Like I said, my question was can they change the requirements for some resale points and not all.

All of the suggestions using the Disney collection....which is all I was referring to..requires DVCM to change the program tremendously...with Disney’s approval.. because right now, only certain points can be used, and those trades only happen when a DVC room goes with it to offset the cost,

Yes, anything can be done but only if Disney is willing to give up substantial revenue that will be lost from those trades. IMO, I am not convinced that is going to be easy to accomplish and I see Disney offering much better discounts to fill the resorts with cash guests, rather then giving the rooms over to DVC for free,

Of course, none of us are involved in what happens, so all we can do is wait and see. The fact they are now recommending RCI, my sense tells me major changes to the use of the Disney collection is much less likely

It wouldn't require them to reverse the program restrictions. They could make it temporary. They could make it a program that is separate from the normal Disney collection with different rules.

I'm thinking there's zero chance that Disney will be able to fill their cash rooms no matter the discount which leaves a lot of opportunity to assist the DVC division which is proving to be hit hard in a very different way. If Disney resorts were considering something like consolidating guests into fewer resorts and keeping a couple closed until demand increases then perhaps DVC could essentially take over a resort or part of a resort to offer up a new way to use points for a limited time or who knows what. Disney is not going to reopen as if nothing ever happened and there will be ways to take care of the DVC "problem".....if DVC wants to.

 

[dsnymnkyuncle]

IMO the tremendous hit working families, or no longer working families are taking is far more likely to impact Disney than the fear factor. I would love to see some non overwhelming numbers from disney on the visitor economic back grounds and daily spending. It is not a fixed cost issue at the moment and since the Day's of Walt disney has found unique methods to get things build with other people's money.

I can see lots of clever discounts and incentives to get people in the door and spending. room rates just above the costs of opening over keeping them closed and there is no reason to keep this from DVC owners. None. there is every reason to include us.

 

[jlb727]

What I would love to see as a means of improving availability and cleaning out some of those banked points would be DVC trading into POFQ or part of CSR for members to book “studios” at 7 months in 2021. Tie it to the 50th anniversary or something with a special one time only moderate resort point chart. This would help Disney fill those resorts, which are likelier to be empty due to economic factors affecting cash reservations, and it would clear some extra DVC points. It’ll never happen, but it is something interesting to think about!

 

[Matty B13]

If Disney resorts were considering something like consolidating guests into fewer resorts and keeping a couple closed until demand increases then perhaps DVC could essentially take over a resort or part of a resort to offer up a new way to use points for a limited time or who knows what. Disney is not going to reopen as if nothing ever happened and there will be ways to take care of the DVC "problem".....if DVC wants to.

It would be cool if DVC completely took over the Poly......... but I don't think that will happen.

 

[Sandisw]

It wouldn't require them to reverse the program restrictions. They could make it temporary. They could make it a program that is separate from the normal Disney collection with different rules.

I'm thinking there's zero chance that Disney will be able to fill their cash rooms no matter the discount which leaves a lot of opportunity to assist the DVC division which is proving to be hit hard in a very different way. If Disney resorts were considering something like consolidating guests into fewer resorts and keeping a couple closed until demand increases then perhaps DVC could essentially take over a resort or part of a resort to offer up a new way to use points for a limited time or who knows what. Disney is not going to reopen as if nothing ever happened and there will be ways to take care of the DVC "problem".....if DVC wants to.

Didn’t think of them making a new set of rules. That could allow them to get around the current rules...which is why I asked the questions,

But, we will agree to disagree that DVCM has any say in making it happen without the help of another division, whether it be DVD, TWDC, or WDPR.

IMO, those divisions will do it if it makes sense for them to help out. It will be great if they do, but given the losses, what they had to do in furloughing so many workers, etc., I am not confident they will be bailing out DVC owners with no cost to the program in some way.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It would be cool if DVC completely took over the Poly......... but I don't think that will happen.

That would be cool, wouldn't it! I'd expect something more like Coronado Spring or AoA though. Maybe WL could be a good option though - it's approx 2/3rds DVC at that property as it stands.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Didn’t think of them making a new set of rules. That could allow them to get around the current rules...which is why I asked the questions,

But, we will agree to disagree that DVCM has any say in making it happen without the help of another division, whether it be DVD, TWDC, or WDPR.

IMO, those divisions will do it if it makes sense for them to help out. It will be great if they do, but given the losses, what they had to do in furloughing so many workers, etc., I am not confident they will be bailing out DVC owners with no cost to the program in some way.

I haven't said that DVC can just grab a hotel without agreement from other divisions or create any solution that involves hotels on their own. I mean that first it has to be DVC wanting to take care of the problem in a positive way for members. If they don't want to do that then it's dead in the water. Might come back to bite them though if they don't do something when all other park divisions have refunded. If they are willing then that's the starting point to get something worked out. There are a few higher up's at Disney that could of course dictate that the involved divisions make it happen too.