Wow. 2021 Annual Dues

[Sandisw]

The only way this is possible for the WDW resorts is with a 0% for RIV, but RIV is NOT increasing at 0%. That's why a +.9% for this year matters. CC's -.9% in 2018 is what made people so optimistic about RIV's math, but it isn't what happened. RIV is already so high, all it has to do is get close to average increase, and it will stay high.

But, sure, RIV is low compared to Vero/HH, and probably will always be.

I do think RIV will be on the higher end, and agree with you there. But, for 2021, the difference one will pay owning RIV vs, all the other DVC resorts is going to be less than it was in 2020,

In a few years, I predict it will continue to rise at a smaller than average rate until it sells out, which will make the dues calculation When considering a home resort much different than it was at the start,

 

[Jenniebee]

The increase is a bummer, but I am not going to sweat it because I think we will see rack rates go up at even higher percentages. Still happy to have a timeshare.

 

[Heather07438]

Note the 3 resorts that DVD still owns many point in Aulani, Copper Creek and Riveria have minimal increases. .27%, 1.92% and .9%

That is very interesting.

 

[RoseGold]

But RIV did not follow the pattern like CCV. It was +2% off of CCV. That's a big difference and shows that RIV's costs, even when brand new, are higher than the "inflated" price.

All it has to do is follow close to the normal pattern of the rest, and it stays close to the highest. Keeping BLT at 5%, and a completely unrealistic 0% RIV increase, RIV is still 10% higher than BLT in two years. That's a big premium.

 

[Sandisw]

But RIV did not follow the pattern like CCV. It was +2% off of CCV. That's a big difference and shows that RIV's costs, even when brand new, are higher than the "inflated" price.

All it has to do is follow close to the normal pattern of the rest, and it stays close to the highest. Keeping BLT at 5%, and a completely unrealistic 0% RIV increase, RIV is still 10% higher than BLT in two years. That's a big premium.

Sorry, but you are missing the point in that it is good news for the 2021 dues for RIV owners.

RIV dues are now comparable with other resorts better than it was and if one is buying OKW or AKV, your not saving much over RiV For yearly dues.

 

[havoc315]

I do think RIV will be on the higher end, and agree with you there. But, for 2021, the difference one will pay owning RIV vs, all the other DVC resorts is going to be less than it was in 2020,

In a few years, I predict it will continue to rise at a smaller than average rate until it sells out, which will make the dues calculation When considering a home resort much different than it was at the start,

The big question mark to me, is the Riviera share of the operating costs of the Skyliner, versus the transportation costs of other resorts.
There is little reason for any other costs to be significantly higher on a per room / per point basis.

Drilling down into the budget, what strikes me -- The budget for housekeeping at Riviera is MUCH higher than the other resorts I looked at. For example, housekeeping at Riviera is $2.20 per point, while at CCV it's only $1.27 per point. Total Riviera Housekeeping budget is $6.7 million, total CCV housekeeping budget is $4.2 million.
This is especially shocking since CCV is mostly sold out, while Riviera is far from sold out.

So why would housekeeping be so high?? It's almost as if Riviera owners are also paying for the housekeeping on the unsold points.

 

[havoc315]

But RIV did not follow the pattern like CCV. It was +2% off of CCV. That's a big difference and shows that RIV's costs, even when brand new, are higher than the "inflated" price.

All it has to do is follow close to the normal pattern of the rest, and it stays close to the highest. Keeping BLT at 5%, and a completely unrealistic 0% RIV increase, RIV is still 10% higher than BLT in two years. That's a big premium.

That's just BLT. So yes, based on that pattern.. 2-3 resorts would still be significantly lower in dues. While the other resorts would be the same or higher.

 

[havoc315]

okay... figured it out.
Riviera dues should not increase quickly for a few years.....

Here is why:
Riviera has 341 units... The budget has RIV DVC owners paying for 180 units. So in terms of common expenses, DVC owners are paying for 53% of the common expenses. (Disney is paying the other 47%) BUT -- 53% of the points have not yet been sold! (only about 25% of the points have been sold!) So for now, Riviera owners are paying MORE than their fair share.

In comparison, BLT has 295 units, but the budget covers 281 homes. So BLT owners are paying 95% of the operating expenses. BUT BLT is sold out. So each person is paying their fair share.

Eventually...... when share of points sold equals the share of homes budgeted, then Riviera costs will inflate the same as every place else. But as long as it remains undersold, the inflation rates should be significantly lower.

There are several reasons to believe that ultimately, Riviera may have cheaper maintenance than other properties. As a single tower, and not really a sprawling property, some of the maintenance fees and housekeeping fees should be lower than a lot of other properties.

I'd actually expect, eventually, the annual fees for Riviera to be somewhat similar to BLT, though a little higher due to the skyliner costs.

 

[Sandisw]

The big question mark to me, is the Riviera share of the operating costs of the Skyliner, versus the transportation costs of other resorts.
There is little reason for any other costs to be significantly higher on a per room / per point basis.

Drilling down into the budget, what strikes me -- The budget for housekeeping at Riviera is MUCH higher than the other resorts I looked at. For example, housekeeping at Riviera is $2.20 per point, while at CCV it's only $1.27 per point. Total Riviera Housekeeping budget is $6.7 million, total CCV housekeeping budget is $4.2 million.
This is especially shocking since CCV is mostly sold out, while Riviera is far from sold out.

So why would housekeeping be so high?? It's almost as if Riviera owners are also paying for the housekeeping on the unsold points.

I saw that. I am not sure exactly how it works per say, but DVD does not pay on points that are declared, but not sold in Exchange for a guarantee that if expenses exceed the budget, they cover the shortfall,

What I don’t know is how it works for inventory not yet declared. Is it the same?

If it is, could it explain it in the fact that the rooms still used for cash hsve a different housekeeping schedule? Again, I really do not know.

Being a new resort, did they build In the wage increases already that have not yet been fully implemented?

Or, does it have to do with the percentage of larger rooms that require more cleaning vs, studios?

Might be a good question to ask DVCM!

ETA: Looks like your above post answered a lot of it!

 

[havoc315]

Being a new resort, did they build In the wage increases already that have not yet been fully implemented?

Possible but doubtful... As I assume the housekeeping staff isn't directly employed by the resort. I assume a housekeeper at Riviera makes the same hourly rate as a housekeeper at any other resort.

Or, does it have to do with the percentage of larger rooms that require more cleaning vs, studios?

Possible, but should work in the opposite direction. 2 studios should take more work to clean than 1 1-bedroom. As 2 studios would have more bedding, more bathrooms, than a single 1-bedroom. And that continues up the scale. With a 2 bedroom lockoff requiring the exact same level of housekeeping as a 1 BR + studio. I'd think standalone units (Poly Bungalows, CCV cabins) would have much higher housekeeping/maintenance costs.

There really are lots of unknowns. And a lot depends on the sharing arrangements each resort may have with their regular sister-resort. For example, do BLT owners may any significant share of monorail costs? (probably not).

And I didn't even drill down to the property taxes... and those differences are outside of Disney's control.

 

[sethschroeder]

So much for the RIV will adjust down, it's just a high estimate...

No one said it would go down...

Last year it was 26% more than BLT, and now it's 21% more. I'm a numbers person, and that difference is staggering. It will take more than a few years to equalize that.

The justifications for RIV's insanely high dues from the start has always been that they are artificially high or won't increase or something. Well, there's your increase anyway, and it's still holding a VERY high premium.

I mean you are picking a very specific resort. I also purchased my RIV contract for significantly less than if I bought BLT.

$155 @ RIV vs $222 @ BLT

Plus BLT was just never my favorite even though I looked at buying there multiple times.

Now for AKV which mamy love as SAP its $8.07 MFs vs $8.38 at RIV. For my 300 points it would be $93 extra on $2500 in MFs.

The extra $450 over BLT is worth it to stay where I want. Likely less in the next couple years.

If I really wanted to cut costs I wouldnt go to WDW or I would just stay off site. It's not that much of a difference when you add up all costs of a trip.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Possible but doubtful... As I assume the housekeeping staff isn't directly employed by the resort. I assume a housekeeper at Riviera makes the same hourly rate as a housekeeper at any other resort.



Possible, but should work in the opposite direction. 2 studios should take more work to clean than 1 1-bedroom. As 2 studios would have more bedding, more bathrooms, than a single 1-bedroom. And that continues up the scale. With a 2 bedroom lockoff requiring the exact same level of housekeeping as a 1 BR + studio. I'd think standalone units (Poly Bungalows, CCV cabins) would have much higher housekeeping/maintenance costs.

There really are lots of unknowns. And a lot depends on the sharing arrangements each resort may have with their regular sister-resort. For example, do BLT owners may any significant share of monorail costs? (probably not).

And I didn't even drill down to the property taxes... and those differences are outside of Disney's control.

I would think the opposite is true. RIV and the Skyliner were built together so they could factor in the cost of the Skyliner infrastructure (the towers, stations, etc.) with the cost of the resort. BLT was built after the monorail so while BLT owners undoubtedly share some of the cost of maintenance (and hopefully new trains some day) the BLT transportation costs are now higher than usual because the monorail is not running to EPCOT and there is now a greater need for buses.

 

[havoc315]

I would think the opposite is true. RIV and the Skyliner were built together so they could factor in the cost of the Skyliner infrastructure (the towers, stations, etc.) with the cost of the resort. BLT was built after the monorail so while BLT owners undoubtedly share some of the cost of maintenance (and hopefully new trains some day) the BLT transportation costs are now higher than usual because the monorail is not running to EPCOT and there is now a greater need for buses.

Riviera is no less dependent on buses than BLT. The only way to get to the most popular park from RIV is by bus!

But I'm not factoring in temporary changes due to Covid. Since we really have no way of knowing how long those changes will last into 2021. Even more importantly, it's not so easy to estimate the difference in cost between buses and skyliner.

But regardless.... we don't know the cost of the skyliner vs the cost of the monorail. We don't know RIV's share of the Skyliner cost vs the BLT share of the monorail.
But I'm going to *guess* that Riviera's skyliner costs are higher than BLT's monorail costs. Simply because BLT makes up a small percentage of resort monorail use. And the resort monorail costs are likely reduced by sharing some infrastructure with the main monorail line. Riviera guests have a Skyliner station to themselves. BLT shares a monorail station with the much larger Contemporary.

We know the budget -- Riviera's budget for transportation is much higher than the BLT budget for transportation. We just don't know the specific breakdown, of how much each is paying for skyliner/monorail, versus other transportation expenses.

 

[Yankee626]

Remember, their price per point on resale (and direct) is MUCH lower than the other DVC resorts.
I'd assume being "standalone" adds to their maintenance costs.

But when you can get Vero Beach for under $60 per point, the break-even point is still 6-7 years, even with the higher maintenance.

Let's compare BWV and VB -- As both expire in 2042.
BWV resells at about $125 per point, and has maintenance of $7.81 per point.
VB resells at $60 per point with maintenance of $11.23...

So over 22 years until expiration, at 2020 dollars... Vero Beach is $307 per point, over 22 years. BWV is $296 per point.
Not a huge difference.
Throw OKW into the comparison -- About $100 per point, and $8.36 in dues.... $284 per point.

By far, the cheapest long term points through 2042 are SSR -- $7.11 per point in dues and purchase cost of around $100 per point... $256 per point. But even this, it's still only 20% less than Vero Beach.

Finally, may as well do HHI -- About $75 per point, maintenance of $9.97, $294 per point. Almost the same long term cost as BWV.

By my math it will cost per 100 points owned
$116 per month for VB
$112 per month for BWV
$111 per month for HH.
That's if the MF stayed the same. So your right .

 

[GrtDisGuy]

No... if you simply have 1 more year where Riviera increases 1% and the other resorts increase by 4%...
Then you get:
Riviera at $8.47
AKV at $8.40
OKW at $8.69
BCV at $7.73
BWV at $8.13
CCV at $7.89

If then you have 1 further year where Riviera is 1% and the others are 4%, then 2023 dues:
Riv: $8.55
AKV -- $8.74
OKW -- $9.04
BCV -- $8.04
BWV -- $8.46
CCV -- $8.21

Of course, if Riviera starts to join the other resorts for 4% increases next year, then it will stay higher. But if it keeps to a 1% rate per year for 2 years.. while the other resorts continue normal increases, you see that within 2 years, Riviera fits right in the middle of most of the resorts.

You say 4% above - why 4%. Has that been the historical average across the resorts? Is that the amount that should be planned when calculating the cost of a contract? If not, what is an appropriate % to plan?

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Note the 3 resorts that DVD still owns many point in Aulani, Copper Creek and Riveria have minimal increases. .27%, 1.92% and .9%

That is very interesting.

Verrrry interesting...

 

[Lorana]

You say 4% above - why 4%. Has that been the historical average across the resorts? Is that the amount that should be planned when calculating the cost of a contract? If not, what is an appropriate % to plan?

Across all DVC resorts, the average CAGR is 4.01%. If you don't add in CCV and RIV, it's 4.48%.
For the resorts I own, it averages to 4.62% in 2021. CAGR for past 5 years is 3.62%. But I do own both CCV and RIV.

It depends on your resort, honestly. I've updated my chart based on 2021 dues, so note that this is assuming CAGR through 2021 not 2020:

HISTORICAL ANNUAL DVC DUES
Year	OKW	BWV	VB	VB(s)	HHI	BRV	BCV	SSR	AKV	BLT	VGC	ADV	ADV(s)	VGF	PVB	CCV	RIV
2021	8.36	7.81	11.23	8.86	9.97	8.11	7.44	7.11	8.03	6.90	6.99	8.35	6.28	6.81	7.05	7.59	8.38
2020	7.84	7.37	10.13	8	9.1	7.78	7.06	6.77	7.67	6.58	6.6	8.33	6.26	6.56	6.79	7.45	8.31
2019	7.23	7.17	9.48	7.48	8.56	7.32	6.94	6.4	7.44	6.4	6.27	7.86	5.91	6.39	6.76	7.42	8.31
2018	6.72	6.55	8.53	6.71	7.72	6.93	6.44	5.86	6.76	5.92	5.88	7.53	5.66	6.13	6.2	7.26
2017	6.41	6.47	8.11	6.49	7.27	6.54	6.27	5.6	6.59	5.62	5.61	7.03	5.28	5.9	6.14	7.33
2016	6.01	6.18	8.08	6.35	6.82	6.22	6.13	5.44	6.42	5.28	5.37	6.79	5.1	5.71	6.09
2015	5.84	6.07	8.06	6.28	6.52	6.03	5.97	5.17	6.3	5.05	5.15	6.51	4.89	5.52	6.02
2014	5.54	6.01	7.75	6.06	6.28	5.93	5.79	4.91	5.97	4.78	4.94	6.44	4.84	5.41
2013	5.34	5.84	7.41	5.8	6.02	5.79	5.65	4.81	5.67	4.5	4.58	6.25	4.7	5.41
2012	5.2	5.62	7.12	5.57	5.93	5.61	5.5	4.73	5.44	4.22	4.33	5.96	4.48
2011	4.98	5.46	6.78	5.31	5.68	5.34	5.28	4.51	5.01	3.89	4.07	5.73	4.31
2010	4.87	5.36	6.61	5.18	5.57	5.2	5.15	4.46	4.95	3.78	3.94
2009	4.73	5.21	6.41	4.97	5.36	5.04	5	4.34	4.86	3.67	3.82
2008	4.56	5.04	6.04	4.71	5.16	4.87	4.8	4.21	4.71
2007	4.4	4.85	5.63	4.39	4.98	4.73	4.63	4.12	4.62
2006	4.24	4.69	5.27	4.12	4.34	4.61	4.48	3.98
2005	3.86	4.41	4.87	3.84	4.04	4.35	4.27	3.83
2004	3.68	4.25	4.67	3.67	3.86	4.22	4.18	3.8
2003	3.49	4.11	4.36	3.45	3.7	4.05	3.97
2002	3.22	3.92	4.17	3.33	3.48	3.8	3.77
2001	3.13	3.82	3.97	2.7	3.32	3.63
2000	3.16	3.94	4.08	2.87	3.25	3.62
1999	3.16	4.02	3.99	2.82	3.18
1998	3.17	3.94	---	2.76	3.2
1997	3.14	3.84	---	2.9	3.16
1996	2.99	3.7	---	2.82	3.16
1995	2.84
1994	2.7
1993	2.63
1992	2.56
1991	2.51
YEARS OPENED (includes 1st year)	31	26	23	26	26	22	20	18	15	13	13	11	11	9	7	5	3
CAGR	3.96%	2.92%	4.60%	4.50%	4.52%	3.73%	3.46%	3.54%	3.75%	4.98%	4.76%	3.49%	3.48%	2.59%	2.29%	0.70%	0.30%
Last 5 Years CAGR	5.45%	3.84%	6.73%	6.41%	6.53%	4.39%	3.47%	4.89%	4.03%	4.19%	4.50%	3.51%	3.53%	2.92%	2.81%	0.70%	0.30%

Ave CAGR (all):	4.01%	no CCV,RIV:	4.48%
Ave CAGR (WDW):	3.36%	no CCV,RIV:	4.00%
Ave CAGR 5 years (all):	3.39%	no CCV,RIV:	3.77%
Ave CAGR 5 years (WDW):	2.93%	no CCV,RIV:	3.47%

 

[RhodyKP]

This thread about how dues at the various resorts deviate from the average over time is relevant to this discussion, also verrrrry interesting, shows how much work our wonderful contributors put into these discussions, and has pretty colored graphs too

https://www.disboards.com/threads/annual-dues-deviation-from-average.3807594/#post-62141212

 

[Mumof4mice]

My first thought is: Subsidized Aulani or nothing, for SAP!

That resort's never going to sell out.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I have owned DVC points since 2009. When I purchased I went in with my eyes wide open. I knew there were going to be HOA dues and that they were only going to increase over time. Hopefully, everyone on this thread realized the same thing. I am a numbers guy, made the projections years ago. They bothered me so much I have added several contracts since the original. Just remember, the HOA are not ever going to really go down. So complain if it makes you feel better, but it will not change anything.