Worth buying dvc for short yearly trip?

[wezguycsu]

Hi everyone. New to the boards so I had a question. My family and I are California based and take a yearly trip to Disneyland, never really exceeding 3 nights. We would want vgc to be our home resort as it has limited availability at 7 months. We also are planning to start taking wdw vacations every 3 years or so as well. Knowing that most years we will only be using 3 nights (probably no more than 90 points) and seeing as small vgc listings are super rare do you think it's worth buying dvc or renting points instead? Does anyone have experience with our situation? Thanks for the advice in advance

 

[ELMC]

Hi everyone. New to the boards so I had a question. My family and I are California based and take a yearly trip to Disneyland, never really exceeding 3 nights. We would want vgc to be our home resort as it has limited availability at 7 months. We also are planning to start taking wdw vacations every 3 years or so as well. Knowing that most years we will only be using 3 nights (probably no more than 90 points) and seeing as small vgc listings are super rare do you think it's worth buying dvc or renting points instead? Does anyone have experience with our situation? Thanks for the advice in advance

Speaking strictly from a financial perspective, given the extreme cost of buying at VGC, you would be better off renting points for the next 15-20 years vs. purchasing. However, if you place value on things such as being able to control your reservation and having a little more flexibility then yes, buying DVC might work for you. As for Floriday trips, using VGC points to book at WDW properties is like booking an Uber XL just for yourself. You're paying a lot more than you need to in order to accomplish the same goal.

 

[starry_solo]

I would say no.

 

[anomamatt]

Speaking strictly from a financial perspective, given the extreme cost of buying at VGC, you would be better off renting points for the next 15-20 years vs. purchasing.

How do you figure?

You save close to 50% over rental costs currently:

($185 / 40) + $6.27 = $10.89

Renting GVC points even private party to get 11 months (which is necessary) is going to be $18-19 a point minimum.

 

[ELMC]

How do you figure?

You save close to 50% over rental costs currently:

($185 / 40) + $6.27 = $10.89

Renting GVC points even private party to get 11 months (which is necessary) is going to be $18-19 a point minimum.

Yes, by your numbers you are saving $7-8 per point starting in year one. But you're ignoring the fact that you have to spend $181 (for future years points) right now in order to save that $8 each year.

I think we've had this conversation before, but simply taking the enormous lump sum that you are required to pay right now and amortizing it over 40 years is not an honest analysis. If I could pay $4 per point every year I wanted points, then that would be a different story. But I can't; I have to pay $185 right now and that needs to be accounted for.

This is the pushing of the envelope that has me so bearish on DVC. It's still a good long term play, I think we can both agree on that. But as recently as four years ago, "long term" meant five to nine years. Now it's much longer than that. I don't want to do something at a deficit for 15 years just so I can start reaping the rewards in year 16. It doesn't make sense to me.

 

[bwvBound]

What is the driving force for your thoughts to purchase VGC over nearby hotels? Is it the full kitchen, in-room laundry or the immediate "on site" access to the Disney parks?

FWIW, we are in San Diego and have owned DVC at WDW since before VGC was announced. We visit DLR often but generally use a different timeshare with two locations near DLR (walking distance from the gates) and 70+ locations worldwide. We use this other timeshare ~8x each year across various locations and have been very happy with the ownership. So, why DVC .... ??

 

[anomamatt]

Yes, by your numbers you are saving $7-8 per point starting in year one. But you're ignoring the fact that you have to spend $181 (for future years points) right now in order to save that $8 each year.

I think we've had this conversation before, but simply taking the enormous lump sum that you are required to pay right now and amortizing it over 40 years is not an honest analysis. If I could pay $4 per point every year I wanted points, then that would be a different story. But I can't; I have to pay $185 right now and that needs to be accounted for.

This is the pushing of the envelope that has me so bearish on DVC. It's still a good long term play, I think we can both agree on that. But as recently as four years ago, "long term" meant five to nine years. Now it's much longer than that. I don't want to do something at a deficit for 15 years just so I can start reaping the rewards in year 16. It doesn't make sense to me.

Fair enough. It’s complicated math. I’m making it way too simple on one end. But neither of our cases accounts for the value of the contract after, say, 20 years. My simplistic calculation is keeping it for 40 years vs 40 years of renting. But one could conceivably keep it for 20 years and sell with likely recouping one’s initial payment.

I do think the economics of DVC get shaky with the larger initial costs. Because of non-DVC options like listed above. But compared to renting long term, with all but a few exceptions (BCV being notable), buying DVC is better ($$$ wise) than renting long term. Short term, no question renting is better. And yes, DVC all together can be questionable (renting or buying) when you start looking at outside resorts and options.

 

[ELMC]

Fair enough. It’s complicated math. I’m making it way too simple on one end. But neither of our cases accounts for the value of the contract after, say, 20 years. My simplistic calculation is keeping it for 40 years vs 40 years of renting. But one could conceivably keep it for 20 years and sell with likely recouping one’s initial payment.

I do think the economics of DVC get shaky with the larger initial costs. Because of non-DVC options like listed above. But compared to renting long term, with all but a few exceptions (BCV being notable), buying DVC is better ($$$ wise) than renting long term. Short term, no question renting is better. And yes, DVC all together can be questionable (renting or buying) when you start looking at outside resorts and options.

Yeah I completely agree that it is probably far more complicated than we are making it seem. And you've hit on something when you talk about the value of the contract after 20 years. The ability to recoup investment after use is the single largest factor supporting taking an ownership position vs. renting. Even my analyses show that after a certain point you get into the red using the renting strategy. That's really how timeshares are structured, and I get that.

But like you said, it's the current pricing that is throwing me off. Never in my wildest dreams did I think they would get this out of control. It's really a triple whammy of high point costs, escalating maintenance fees, and higher point requirements. Each of those three variables has increased, some more than others but ALL at a rate much greater than inflation, and while individually it's hard to notice the impact, combined it has a significant impact on the entire model. You mention outside resorts and options...that's where my family started before we found DVC and started staying exclusively on property. That's also when I bought my BWV points for $60 and BLT for $80. But now for our April trips I'm getting a week in a Marriott Harbour Lake 2BR for the cost of two nights in a DVC 1BR. I can't justify DVC at those price points. And I've now booked three last minute F&W weekends at the Swan/Dolphin for an average of $250 per night all in. Staying on-property is awesome, but I think the premium you have to pay is getting out of control.

 

[skippytx]

It's hard to quantify what is "worth it" to someone. If you have the disposable income and really want to own at VGC, go for it.

I love owning DVC for WDW but have no interest in owning VGC, but that's me. Others can't imagine going to DLR without staying at VGC.

 

[ELMC]

It's hard to quantify what is "worth it" to someone. If you have the disposable income and really want to own at VGC, go for it.

I love owning DVC for WDW but have no interest in owning VGC, but that's me. Others can't imagine going to DLR without staying at VGC.

I think it's more complicated than that. I think that I can afford VGC without it being a hardship, and I do enjoy staying there. But by holding a contract that is relatively liquid and is worth $190 per point, I feel you are doing the same thing as buying a contract for that much. And I just can't justify that expenditure. So it's more than just having the means, there's something else. I believe the young people today are calling it "being cheap".

 

[BillPA]

There is no way at he current direct prices that DVC is worth buying into. Resale is slowly getting too expensive also. Add in the crazy prices for passes and food... It's time to move on from DVC and Disney.

 

[jerseyduke]

I think direct prices for resorts such as VGC are insane.

I would continue to watch the resale markets.

 

[ELMC]

There is no way at he current direct prices that DVC is worth buying into. Resale is slowly getting too expensive also. Add in the crazy prices for passes and food... It's time to move on from DVC and Disney.

I agree to a point. There are still ways to do Disney for less. DVC, however, is completely avoidable by staying at any one of the ten thousand accommodations in Orlando.

 

[crvetter]

Speaking strictly from a financial perspective, given the extreme cost of buying at VGC, you would be better off renting points for the next 15-20 years vs. purchasing. However, if you place value on things such as being able to control your reservation and having a little more flexibility then yes, buying DVC might work for you. As for Floriday trips, using VGC points to book at WDW properties is like booking an Uber XL just for yourself. You're paying a lot more than you need to in order to accomplish the same goal.

The only issue with renting VGC points is the small number of owners renting out their points vs. those that are looking to rent. It is one of the more popular rental requests through the 2 biggest brokers and very popular on the rental boards. So I think the point I bolded above is actually extremely important when considering buying VGC to stay at VGC. Because that value on control of your reservation is very important when the wait lists at the brokers are very deep (and it's not a first come first serve system) and your reservation is never picked to be fulfilled before availability disappears (especially if one wants to travel over weekends). The DISBoards work but the VGC points disappear/rent super quick and usually above 18 a point.

As for cost I found that buying VGC for short 3-4 night trips is well worth it, if you plan on staying on-site, which in my case was what I was only interested in (not interested in the Harbor or Katella hotels, wanted a more resort feel, i.e. GCH). As for the rental prices, I could see them climbing higher for VGC and the more in-demand WDW resorts (e.g. VGF) simply because the demand is there and a huge savings over the respective cash side at each resort, which should bump them up quite a bit in value, IMO. Just a quick analysis for 2/14-2/17/2020 at VGC it would be 61 points or about 1,098 inclusive of Parking and Taxes (if you go through a broker). That means about $366 a night for the studio. Below are some cost estimates for other Resorts:

DLH: 2,060.37 - You would then need to add in the $25 per night for parking if you had a car
PPH: 1,495.26 - You would then need to add in the $25 per night for parking if you had a car
GCH: 2,523.69 (Standard View) to 3,050.19 (Premium View) - You would then need to add in the $25 per night for parking if you had a car
Best Western on Harbor: $650 (does include a continental breakfast) - I chose this resort for it's close/walk-able proximity and being the median price of the walking distance resorts.

So you are talking about renting VGC is about 70% more expensive than the Harbor hotels. Compared to on-site VGC is a 36%, 50%, and 130% savings on the cheapest rooms at PPH, DLH, and GCH respectively. So if the other option for the OP is to stay on-site they may find significant value in VGC resale, especially if they are staying DLH or GCH.

 

[crvetter]

seeing as small vgc listings are super rare

They are rare bought when I bought mine there were 4 25 point contracts, 2 50 point contracts, 1 75 point contract, and 3-5 100 point contracts for sale in my use year alone. They did sell very quickly (except a 100 point contract say a couple months). The sub-100 where about 200 and the 100 was about 180-190 depending on the points. Overall you just need to be patient and wait for the right contract to come up.

I went with the 75 since it was a little more than I planned on using yearly, thus no need for the extra 25 points (already own a WDW resort).

If you want to buy VGC I would do the full analysis to see the cost savings based on the accommodations you would otherwise be using. Points raised above are all extremely valid.

 

[wezguycsu]

Thanks to everyone for the input and advice