Worried about future of DVC

[Can_Dannn]

....resale restrictions.... increasing costs.... DVD trying to cheat us on the 2020 point charts (lock off premiums).... blue card/white cards.... membership saturation.... progressive worsening of availability.....


Potential buyer here but I have lots of reservations about buying in. DVC used to be an investment you made money off of.... will it still be the case in 2050 when we sell?

Thoughts?!

 

[DisMomKY]

I don’t look at it as an investment. For me, I look at it as prepaying for our rooms until 2054 (we own at SSR). We got a contract with banker points so are staying in a 2bedroom for our first stay that would cost almost as much as we paid for our contract if it was a cash stay. So not an investment but a savings on the ever increasing cost of cash rooms

 

[Beachmom0317]

I don’t look at it as an investment. For me, I look at it as prepaying for our rooms until 2054 (we own at SSR). We got a contract with banker points so are staying in a 2bedroom for our first stay that would cost almost as much as we paid for our contract if it was a cash stay. So not an investment but a savings on the ever increasing cost of cash rooms

I will echo every word here. We own at CCV. I will also add DVC isn’t for everyone. Look at how your particular family vacations and then crunch numbers. Being here on boards is a great first step!

 

[Sandisw]

IMO, going in to a purchase of DVC, expecting a resale return of anything is not a good reason to buy in.

Its purpose is to help to prepay vacation. If one decides to sell down the road and can get anything more than 0 should be seen as a bonus.

Having said that, I don’t think DVC contracts will ever be worth 0..except when they are within a few years of expiration,

I think one should always get something back because people do visit and will continue to visit WDW.

 

[CarolMN]

...(snip)....Potential buyer here but I have lots of reservations about buying in. DVC used to be an investment you made money off of.... will it still be the case in 2050 when we sell?

Thoughts?!

Respectfully, If you expect (or need) to "make money" on a timeshare purchase, DVC is not a good choice for you. You'll sleep better (and probably enjoy your trips more) without the commitment. Rent points or look for discounted cash stays.

 

[ziravan]

Have I been disappointed in some of DVC recent moves? Yes, and I’ve been very vocal about it.

Am I worried about the future of DVC? Not at all.

The underlying formula is gonna be there as long as the parks are there. Disney has a history of overshooting their maximizing of their market share - and when they do, they normally correct. The same will happen here:

Either the market will continue to bear DVC’s recent moves and they will continue apace, or it won’t, and DVC will correct.

Many of the recent moves are a recognition by DVC to the fact that the early days of DVC extremely undervalued what they had and they’ve spent the last decade playing catch-up to find their real value.

Either way, DVC is a cash cow for a reason. That gives their executives much latitude. But it also means they must perform.

DVC is here to stay.

 

[poofyo101]

Have I been disappointed in some of DVC recent moves? Yes, and I’ve been very vocal about it.

Am I worried about the future of DVC? Not at all.

The underlying formula is gonna be there as long as the parks are there. Disney has a history of overshooting their maximizing of their market share - and when they do, they normally correct. The same will happen here:

Either the market will continue to bear DVC’s recent moves and they will continue apace, or it won’t, and DVC will correct.

Many of the recent moves are a recognition by DVC to the fact that the early days of DVC extremely undervalued what they had and they’ve spent the last decade playing catch-up to find their real value.

Either way, DVC is a cash cow for a reason. That gives their executives much latitude. But it also means they must perform.

DVC is here to stay.

I agree with this for the most part. Now if only the resale restrictions for Riviera would go away I could buy in....

 

[StitchesGr8Fan]

DVC should never be thought of as an investment. It’s a timeshare, plain and simple. Because of Disney fandom it has retained value unlike other timeshares, but that could change at any time. All a timeshare does is let you prepay your lodging costs for vacations.

 

[ziravan]

I agree with this for the most part. Now if only the resale restrictions for Riviera would go away I could buy in....

Here’s the thing. I already have 3 other contracts. RIV’s restrictions won’t hurt me. It might affect resale but that’s only one consideration and probably a minor one for me.

I DO think it’ll do further harm to the 7 month window for everybody, but I bought where I wanted to stay.

I think it’ll eventually pressure the 11 month window at RIV for everybody as resale owners maximize the only window they have. But I’m a DVC super-user. I feel confident in my ability to game an 11 month window to my advantage.

Even if I bought at RIV, the restrictions won’t affect me. At least not enough to pull up for that reason.

But it DOES affect people new to DVC, and that really bothers me. DVC is still the same grandfathered product for me, but that’s a much different DVC than those who buy into it today.

We love Disney, and yes, we love DVC. I used to share that far and wide, but why would I do that today? What good does it do to convince anybody of the value of a product that’s no longer for sale? Make no mistake, the DVC I own is no longer for sale.

What is for sale is a much less valuable product for a much higher price.

I wanted to believe DVC was a club. But in the kind of club I want to be a member in, everybody who’s a member gets to learn the secret handshake. Everybody gets to belong on an even keel. DVC changed that - and I believe they didn’t need to do so in order to right-value their product.

So. It’s not a club; it’s a timeshare. I get it. I’ll live with it. It’s disappointing because I want to share this great hobby with others - but I can’t.

Its like when my team loses the championship series. It’s sad. But, at the end of the day, I’m still a fan. That said, I reserve the right to continue to voice my objection to the trade they made that changed the outcome. If only. If only they hadn’t of done that, we could have all been winners.

 

[Spark65]

A timeshare that's an investment you make money off of? People here say I am wrong when I say it's all about the Benjamin's this statement alone proves I am not.

If you want an investment buy stocks and invest in mutual funds never hope you'll get anything back from a vacation except memories and good times with money well spent.

I won't use real estate as an investment method now I just read from another poster (somewhere) about real estate, taxes, wage increases and how based on historical data you really don't get as much as you think you do. He made a good argument very sobering if your reading it.

 

[tjkraz]

DVC used to be an investment you made money off of.... will it still be the case in 2050 when we sell?

You want to save money on your vacations over the next 30 years PLUS a guaranteed positive return?

It doesn't work that way. In fact, no matter when a person bought their points, there was no guarantee of future value. We bought our first points in 2003 and had no idea what resale values would be in 2020. The only guarantee is a room every year for 50 years (or however much time is left on contract.) If that isn't a good enough reason to buy, you shouldn't buy.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Most people who have profited via their DVC were buyers at early resorts. Even those buying VGF and Poly at inception are break-even at best. The rapid rise of direct pricing has outpaced the resale market, and relying on them to equalize over the next 10-40 years is risky.

DVC has become a mature timeshare product, and as a mature product in a changing economy it is best viewed as sunk funds towards vacation lodging and a hedge against inflation, not as a vehicle for appreciation/revenue.

 

[crisi]

Will DVC work FOR YOU over the next ten years? By that time you should have ROI on it, but you can't project any farther out than that with any confidence. (And you can't project out ten years with a lot of confidence). It will change over ten years. Will you be happy over ten years with what you are contracted to get? Because that's all that you are buying - a contract.

Have some people been able to make money off DVC - sure. I made a ton of money buying and selling Novell in the 1980s and 1990s. Other people lost their shirts - on both DVC and Novell.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I agree that as early adopters, many of us have (inadvertently) found a gain through DVC whether it be using our fairly inexpensive ($62 pt/double points up front/no closing costs) points over many years or selling for a big profit. Honestly, we never thought about selling when we bought and I distinctly remember us laughing about 2042 being so far in the future! Well we have sold and bought various resorts and paid income taxes on the profits through the years. I agree with other posters that DVC is playing "catch up" in redesigning a timeshare concept they didn't know would play out so successfully either. Is it a solid value now? I believe it has the potential to be if you buy an aggressive resale contract and use it yourself, however I think it is becoming somewhat more risky as the prices skyrocket over and over again. More so than 25 years ago, paying cash with money that is not needed for "living" to take vacations you would take anyway has minimal risk...buying now to capture a profit that may not exist in the future - not so much.

 

[Jenniebee]

DVC used to be an investment you made money off of.... will it still be the case in 2050 when we sell?

When did it used to be that? In the 90's when the first handful of resorts launched no one knew they would ever get a return. It's been a happy accident that it worked out that way for some. Also why are you selling in 2050?

If you love vacationing at Disney, and you want a timeshare there, then it's a good idea. That's it. I am planning on running mine into the ground. It was pricey, and I have friends who have timeshares in Cape Cod or the Caribbean that paid less, but Disney is where I want to vacation. You can't look at a timeshare like you want it to generate revenue for you. Honestly we are all just lucky if it mitigates some of our cost. But mostly it just enables you to upgrade your vacations if you so desire.

 

[Wakey]

I’d disagree expecting return on DVC if you sell is a bad idea. The product would have to catastrophically fail, and that could only be done by management for a resale contract to have no value. I don’t think management can now do much more, hence why they couldn’t cut resale off the original 14 resorts.
I think we can all expect a decent return if we sell, we can’t expect all our money back, but a reasonable proportion. The caveat as you indicate Sandi is time. As the contracts run down return at some point will decrease, down to zero at year 50. If you are holding onto it that long, then you can’t expect a return, but it should still be worth at least the rental potential at year 45.
I do think when the first tranche of 2042 resorts expire, the ones now that can use the original 14 such as AKL, SSR etc will take a hit- suddenly some of the most popular resorts are then unavailable for these folks even when the resorts are refurbed and resold, so if you want to maximize your resale on points expiring after 2042 sell well before that date. But the new resorts are even worse with the Riv restrictions, so who knows the ability to book any other resort may be seen as a bonus, and thus still make these points desirable.
There was still a profit to be had out of DVC until fairly recently- in 2016 I bought an SSR for 75 with banked points which I rented, bringing buy in to a net $62 with current years points. I’d get $100+ for that now. It’s only since 2017 that this has become more difficult- 2027/18 was when prices started to shoot up resale.

 

[TikiRob]

The only thing that I’m relying on is never being “stuck” in this timeshare like many other timeshare owners find themselves in. While there are still points to be used, someone will want it!

 

[Sandisw]

I’d disagree expecting return on DVC if you sell is a bad idea. The product would have to catastrophically fail, and that could only be done by management for a resale contract to have no value. I don’t think management can now do much more, hence why they couldn’t cut resale off the original 14 resorts.
I think we can all expect a decent return if we sell, we can’t expect all our money back, but a reasonable proportion. The caveat as you indicate Sandi is time. As the contracts run down return at some point will decrease, down to zero at year 50. If you are holding onto it that long, then you can’t expect a return, but it should still be worth at least the rental potential at year 45.
I do think when the first tranche of 2042 resorts expire, the ones now that can use the original 14 such as AKL, SSR etc will take a hit- suddenly some of the most popular resorts are then unavailable for these folks even when the resorts are refurbed and resold, so if you want to maximize your resale on points expiring after 2042 sell well before that date. But the new resorts are even worse with the Riv restrictions, so who knows the ability to book any other resort may be seen as a bonus, and thus still make these points desirable.
There was still a profit to be had out of DVC until fairly recently- in 2016 I bought an SSR for 75 with banked points which I rented, bringing buy in to a net $62 with current years points. I’d get $100+ for that now. It’s only since 2017 that this has become more difficult- 2027/18 was when prices started to shoot up resale.

I do agree that yes, most of us should get something back. But, I still believe one should go in with the expectation of not, and making sure one knows they can handle a loss if have to sell sooner than later.

I did that when I bought BLT in 2009...i knew if I had to sell within the first 3 years, with A 50% loss, it meant my purchase cost me more than cash stays. As soon as we hit 5 years, it would be break even against cash stays with a sale, At 10 years, anything gotten back when selling would be A big plus.

 

[rg35]

DVC is not intended to be an investment, and that is a bad way of looking at a DVC purchase.

The only thing I worry about with DVC is climate change making central Florida an inhospitable vacation destination in ~5-10 years

 

[Wakey]

DVC is not intended to be an investment, and that is a bad way of looking at a DVC purchase.

The only thing I worry about with DVC is climate change making central Florida an inhospitable vacation destination in ~5-10 years

Expecting something back when you sell is very different to treating it as an investment.