Wilma landfalled as CAT 3... Damage Reports just coming in

[bimshire]

Now that Wilma is a 5, it's time for bu$h to take another month long vacation!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Does anyone know what happened to the GDFL and the BAM computer models, they have been on the same track as the rest and all of a sudden, they are looking crazy?

This is what I read on www.flhurricane.com:
Wilma is fluctuating in intensity, and is back down some this afternoon. Model projections are starting to get scattered again, led by the GFDL, which suggests a slower moving system and meandering near the Yucatan, never quite making it toward Florida. Most still remain, along with the offiical forecast, headed toward Florida. The 5PM Update from the National Hurricane Center will be interesting.

The complexity level of forecasting the system just went up tenfold because of the new run. We'll have to wait until later to determine. It is still quite possible that Wilma never gets as far north as expected. But as said earlier, until a definitive turn is made to the north no one in the cone should be letting their guard down.

The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run, or it may be the signal of a change. Time will tell.

 

[Mom2Ashli]

This is what I read on www.flhurricane.com:
Wilma is fluctuating in intensity, and is back down some this afternoon. Model projections are starting to get scattered again, led by the GFDL, which suggests a slower moving system and meandering near the Yucatan, never quite making it toward Florida. Most still remain, along with the offiical forecast, headed toward Florida. The 5PM Update from the National Hurricane Center will be interesting.

The complexity level of forecasting the system just went up tenfold because of the new run. We'll have to wait until later to determine. It is still quite possible that Wilma never gets as far north as expected. But as said earlier, until a definitive turn is made to the north no one in the cone should be letting their guard down.

The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run, or it may be the signal of a change. Time will tell.

I just can't get over how crazy this storm is acting. I am on the West Coast and leaving WDW on Friday Afternoon.

Thanks for the updates.

 

[ford family]

Now that Wilma is a 5, it's time for bu$h to take another month long vacation!

Yeah, let's just hope it doesn't make landfall anywhere run by the Democrats.

ford family

 

[goofygirl]

Cat 5! Yikes!

Just got off the phone: My grandmother from Florida is flying up here tomorrow. She's not taking any chances!

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Well, no clue where its going. Now the media totally played that just up. Major track changes! Oh my, go nuts. What a load junk. NHC said some models changed but they still are keeping to forecast right now. Probably will wait next models say. They say all of west florida not to let there guard down at all. In the phone conference with the NHC some think possible weird model runs could be blamed on from bad data inputted into the models. Just dont. All I say is florida in my opinion remains highest risk but there is more uncertainity then normal for the track right now. We will know more after NOAA plane does 13 atmosphere mission tomorrow. At this time I wont issue new map as I dont see any major changes. Next model run tonight will be looked at and I will put out new path. Good Luck All!

Matt

 

[Virgo10]

Well, no clue where its going. Now the media totally played that just up. Major track changes!

Yeah and good grief. The weather guy I was watching sounded totally befuddled. I guess all we can do is stay tuned for further developments.

 

[mamalle]

yeah-just after I headed to the grocery store for some more just in case food we turned off the TV after listening to two of our weather guys telling us how it weakened, etc. Im not sure if I can stand listening to it until monday...

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

yeah-just after I headed to the grocery store for some more just in case food we turned off the TV after listening to two of our weather guys telling us how it weakened, etc. Im not sure if I can stand listening to it until monday...

Your weather guys dont sound to great if they are downplaying it. It weakened from a massive 175 mph to all the way down to 160 mph! Major hurricanes intensity flucuate a lot. Lets not get to comfortable yet.

Matt

 

[mamalle]

well we are on the east coast not the west so they are going by all three models and the 5pm advisory on all three local stations. there was a huge change from earlier today and we will see what comes into play later in the weekend for us over here in south fla and as far as our weathermen- they have always been pretty accurate in the past so I dont doubt what they are saying.. I think there is alot of hype and people are all worked up.

 

[micknpluto]

Im flying out of NJ at 7am saturday, nothing will stop me unless... obviously, if they close the orlando airport....

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Well unforturnately the model that lost it earlier has started correcting itself. Its not fully out yet, only goes out to 160 hours but so far it has landfall now inbetween Naples and Ft. Myers. FYI: 5pm advisory has a major hurricane hitting the west coast! Just rememeber a 3 can still be horrible, ivan last year was a 3 causing the 5 highest amount of damage ever. So I am just saying dont relax to much. Media hyped model change to much earlier. I am sure by 11pm, NHC will mention that models have come more back to agreement. Tomorrow will tell a lot more after special NOAA Plane flies.

Now as part of my internship I have to use different programs and stuff for plotting path. Here is latest map I made. It will be updated at 8pm intermediate advisory.

Matt

 

[KellyLynn]

If i am reading your map right you have the eye at the moment going over Charlotte Harbor just like Charley, That is about 40 miles or so north of Fort Myers. Some I have read have it going in over Boca Grande . It is just so up in the air now. My family lives in the Charlotte Harbor area they are leaving tomorrow.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Here is my 8pm Intermediate Advisory. Full update at 11pm EDT.

 

[huey578]

If i am reading your map right you have the eye at the moment going over Charlotte Harbor just like Charley, That is about 40 miles or so north of Fort Myers. Some I have read have it going in over Boca Grande . It is just so up in the air now. My family lives in the Charlotte Harbor area they are leaving tomorrow.

Kelly,
How far is Orlando from Charlotte Harbor?

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Actually that first map was really updated. Just showing example. New map has landfall I predict between Ft Myers and Naples. More towards Ft Myers. Now if your wondering Ft Myers distance from Orlando, its about 140 miles to WDW resort. So not to much affect but squally weather with winds and rain. Tornado possibility exsists all over the peninsula more then likely. Fully updated path at 11pm.

Matt

 

[Southern4sure]

Actually that first map was really updated. Just showing example. New map has landfall I predict between Ft Myers and Naples. More towards Ft Myers. Now if your wondering Ft Myers distance from Orlando, its about 140 miles to WDW resort. So not to much affect but squally weather with winds and rain. Tornado possibility exsists all over the peninsula more then likely. Fully updated path at 11pm.

Matt

Do you have access to the FSU Superensemble? Im really interested in knowing that this one is saying.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Do you have access to the FSU Superensemble? Im really interested in knowing that this one is saying.

Yes I do. I really dont how know how much I can shair with you about that as its not viewable by the public to my knowledge. That is currently showing a landfall between Sarasota and Naples. Thats all I can say unless I find out I can give you more. But one interesting thing is last model run there was slight shift north. With a few non public models bringing it just north of Tampa and 1 just south.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Track remains very similar. Models keep it in South Florida. Some have it going through the Florida Straits while some have it going up north of Tampa Bay. Still much uncertainity.

Although it has weakened to CAT 4 dont let you guard down. Its possible Wilma go gain more strength and become a CAT 5 again tomorrow. She is currently going through eyewall replacement which has some to do with slight weakening. Wilma remains a dangerous hurricane. All those from Tampa north to the big bend and south to Key West, to around the east in Miami need to monitor this closely. Next update tomorrow morning.

 

[KellyLynn]

Kelly,
How far is Orlando from Charlotte Harbor?

Mile wise I would say 130-150 not really sure exactly
It takes me about 2 hrs when i drive up there from my family's house.
it take about 45-60 minutes to tampa on 75 to catch I-4, So from Port Charlotte it is up and over to Orlano