Wilma landfalled as CAT 3... Damage Reports just coming in

[Virgo10]

Yes I do. I really dont how know how much I can shair with you about that as its not viewable by the public to my knowledge. That is currently showing a landfall between Sarasota and Naples. Thats all I can say unless I find out I can give you more. But one interesting thing is last model run there was slight shift north. With a few non public models bringing it just north of Tampa and 1 just south.

Not viewable by the public?? What's up with that? Is it a secret? You know, things like that really make me angry. Not with the OP but with whoever decides what's best for "Us".

On a lighter note (but not much lighter) I really wish this storm would make up its mind. The waiting for this supposed turn is going to give me an ulcer.

 

[BibbidiBobbidiBOO]

The FSU Superensemble is what law enforcement around here swears by. They have access to it. It is very accurate. I think it was Ivan last year that this model pegged while others had it several hundred miles east. I wish it was public, but it IS one part of what NHC uses. I need to ask my friend what it is saying, her DH is a police.

 

[mamalle]

I hear ya. woke up to being told that its not going to be here till monday am. But the good news is it still is going to be a cat 1 or a week cat 2 when it comes across lake okeechobee- it had looked to be almost over it and now coming right palm beach county if it comes in right around ft myers are they said this am. Of course Im working all weekend and now will be stuck there for hurricane duty since it keeps slowing down.. oh well we can only watch and wait. Its crazy but just think its almost over for the year!

 

[MizBlu]

Kelly,
How far is Orlando from Charlotte Harbor?

I'm not Kelly, but I am famiiar with Charlotte Harbor.

Interior route: 115 miles

I-75/I-4 route: 150 miles

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Just rememeber a 3 can still be horrible, ivan last year was a 3 causing the 5 highest amount of damage ever.

That's because Ivan had the Storm Surge of a Cat. 5, that should not be the case with Wilma.

 

[FINFAN]

Any further updates? I know the date of landfall has been extended to Sunday, later.....


Pam

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Really, until Wilma either skirts, passes by or goes further into the Yucatan Penninsula it's all a crap shoot at this point. That is going to affect her intensity and path. So we watch and wait. Some of the modeling is going back north a little, but again that can't be relied on either until after the Yucatan.

 

[Southern4sure]

Really, until Wilma either skirts, passes by or goes further into the Yucatan Penninsula it's all a crap shoot at this point. That is going to affect her intensity and path. So we watch and wait. Some of the modeling is going back north a little, but again that can't be relied on either until after the Yucatan.

I agree, until Wilma actually gets into the Gulf, I'm not really putting any faith into the models right now. There are too many variables to consider at this point.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 21


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 20, 2005



Wilma continues on its west-northwest heading...295/6...which
remains a little to the left of the short term guidance. For this
reason...the Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the
Yucatan Peninsula. Raob data in Florida and Texas suggest that
ridging in the Gulf is weakening and it is still expected that
Wilma will begin to turn to the northwest over the next 12 to 24
hours. Data from the NOAA gulfstream jet are being ingested into
the 12z models and we will soon see what impact these data have on
the track guidance. The basic synoptic scenario is unchanged.
Ridging in the Gulf is expected to continue to weaken slowly over
the next couple of days...with Wilma accelerating northeastward
late in the forecast period as short-wave energy digs southward
around the back side of a large low-pressure system over the
northeastern United States. The most significant change to the
model guidance is a generally slower recurvature and acceleration.
As far as the Florida threat is concerned...the main focus of the
threat remains from central Florida southward through the
Keys...and it is still too early to narrow that down any further.
Satellite imagery indicates that the inner eyewall continues to
weaken...and earlier reconnaissance data show that the hurricane's
highest winds already are associated with the outer eyewall.
Although some additional weakening may occur this afternoon...
re-strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours as the eyewall
replacement cycle progresses...and Wilma could regain category five
status before it reaches the Yucatan. Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida.

Forecaster Franklin

Looks like the NHC is now thinking there may be more interaction with the Yucatan.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

I am not posting updated track right now. To many unknowns. It gets ridiculous not knowing should I shift track extremely or shift it back thinking models will shift again. This makes it very tough to forecast. Now I would go to the point of it being a crapshoot. We have some degree of the possibilities of where it could go. Its not like it can just go anywhere with current weather patterns. I plan updated forecast later.

Here is key info from NHC:
S FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

So that says we are all at risk from central florida southward. Some thinking that is being discussed by me and others at NHC is possible more interaction with Yucatant but it would go slower with less of a sharp turn but still end up in the gulf. Thinking with this scenario involves more Tampa Bay area and northward to Cedar Key. This is deffintiely a possible threat. While it would weaken a lot it still would bring nasty weather and potential problems. Remember a Tropical Storm is on the top ten list for most damages caused by a tropical system. So lets not get relaxed thinking even a weak 2 or strong 1 wouldnt cause any problems.

Stay tuned for further updates. I will issue partial path update prior to 5pm update and then unforturnately not another one until 11pm. I am so excited that I got the oppurtunity to go to Tampa's Emergency management meeting tonight with all the surrounding counties. We will be talking about potential shelter openings and evacuations. Fill you on that later tonight.

Matt

 

[Miss Jasmine]

.

So that says we are all at risk from central florida southward. Some thinking that is being discussed by me and others at NHC is possible more interaction with Yucatant but it would go slower with less of a sharp turn but still end up in the gulf.

Oh so now you are hanging out with the big boys at the NHC?

 

[ford family]

Miss Jasmine and Donalds_best_pal,

Just had to say thanks for the updates, you are both doing an excellent job.
We have the dual worry in that we are leaving for Orlando in the morning (HRH & BWV) and we also own a home in Bradenton although we don't plan to be there this trip (going three weeks later). Our management company have been following the news since Monday so we are confident that they have all of their contingency plans in place.
Hard not to worry but at least none of our family are there at the moment.
Hope for everyone's sake it peters out.

ford family

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Oh so now you are hanging out with the big boys at the NHC?

I have told since the start that me with Tampa Bay's ten and other stations are in on conference calls with NHC.

Matt

 

[Virgo10]

We have company coming in a couple of hours from MA. They think they're leaving on Monday.

I've already told them that their "Vacation" will probably turn into a working weekend.

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

sounds like fun vacation for them. lol I am really wondering what impact yucatan is going to cause. Could make this 1 or 2 hitting FL. I just dont know. I am so at a loss on this one. lol

Matt

 

[AdventurerKat]

I have told since the start that me with Tampa Bay's ten and other stations are in on conference calls with NHC.

Matt

Yes, you have. And I don't think its unrealistic that you may have been privy to information and discussions the general public hasn't because of where you work. Thank you for the information Matt.

 

[Disneyglobegirl]

Thanks for the updates!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I have told since the start that me with Tampa Bay's ten and other stations are in on conference calls with NHC.

Matt

Matt, yes I know but you seem to be representing yourself as a Met or something like that. You are not. It's not YOU making these forecasts, you are simply listening in to conference calls. It's like me with the EOC. Big deal.

 

[Virgo10]

Matt, yes I know but you seem to be representing yourself as a Met or something like that. You are not. It's not YOU making these forecasts, you are simply listening in to conference calls. It's like me with the EOC. Big deal.

Speaking only for myself, I do not get the feeling that he is doing that. There does seems to be a problem between the two of you and, as I said, that's just my opinion but I wish the two of you would work it out.

 

[AdventurerKat]

I never got that feeling either so I don't know what the problem here is.

So lets clear this up for anyone who might be unsure. If you think that Matt is a Meteorologist, he isn't. He never said he was and personally, I don't feel like he ever represented himself as one. I think you are both posting relevant information so please keep doing that, but enough already.