Wilma landfalled as CAT 3... Damage Reports just coming in

[Miss Jasmine]

Speaking only for myself, I do not get the feeling that he is doing that. There does seems to be a problem between the two of you and, as I said, that's just my opinion but I wish the two of you would work it out.

Nope no problem, I just want to make sure people are aware that this is a kid doing an internship. I think it's great, hands on is the best way to learn. But I am just afraid that people who have not read the entire thread will not know. I also get concerned when people post modeling and don't say it is a model. There is always so much information out there about these storms, I just like to be extra prudent.

 

[mamalle]

I agree Jasmine

and that being said- we just have to keep watching and waiting to see what she does! Monday seems so far away! Guess I will tune back in at 5pm and see what our weather guys say. Poor Max Mayfield- I think he needs a nice long vacation after this season ends!

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

I dont understand what problem you have with me? I never said I was a met? No I am not listening and just making from what I hear. I making a valid forecast by studying data and models and listening to others opinions. I been learning so much about weather the past 3-4 years. Its a big hobby of mine that I have been persueing even further with internships and the such. I just dont understand why seem to keep discrediting me and you just seem to have a problem with me. When things like this happens it sure discouarges me from shairing my knowledge with other people here and other places.

Matt

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Have not to post right now. Sorry! I am off to Tampa Bay's 10 anyways. I will probably post update late this evening.

Matt

 

[zulaya]

Hey Matt--

Just wanted to say, personally, I find your info great and I think it's a shame that thread policing is going on when it's clear to me that you are just providing your best guess on what's going to happen. All part of the big picture. I don't think you have been misrepresenting yourself in any way. And if someone jumps in and makes a wrong assumption by not reading all the info present, then that's their own personal problem. Anyone seriously interested in this info knows things are subject to change and even NHC can't predict the future with a 100% certainty.

So I hope you continue to post your models. Your guess, with the input of Tampa 10 mets, is as good as the other professionals guesses at this point.

 

[MizBlu]

That's because Ivan had the Storm Surge of a Cat. 5, that should not be the case with Wilma.

Charley was a Cat. 4 and had very little storm surge and there were areas here that were flattened like pancakes.

I was out this afternoon and it is like a ghost town. The streets are empty. Hwy. 41 was empty. Supermarkets were empty. It is really eerie, but I think so many people were spooked by Charley, they just left.

Having said that, I'm leaving for WDW tomorrow and plan to attend MNSSHP on Sunday. If the storm track for Wilma is correct, I won't have any problems getting there. Coming home may be a different story.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Charley was a Cat. 4 and had very little storm surge and there were areas here that were flattened like pancakes.

Yep, very true. Each storm is different, that's why there is no use comparing two.

 

[KellyLynn]

no but you sure can compare the tracks of the storms and for people that were hit by Charley and lost there houses or had family thats live's were so disrupted for almost a year, and to live some place and go back to see all that has be ruined from a cat 4 with little storm surge. I think Matt is doing a fine job.
ultimatly we are adults here who will make the discission based on all factors.

My family lived through Charley, my 12 year old son was there do you know what I went trough as a mother last year with charley?I did not hear from my family for 4 days I sat in Pa helpless watchin it unfold on tv looking to see if i caught a sight of them on every new show there was. Seeing the hardware store around the corner from their house demolished.


I know how the people who's family went through Katrina felt. I am taking everything I can get on this storm. My family is leaving weather it is a cat 1 or a cat 4 when it hits. Living through it once for them was enough.

 

[ladycollector]

Matt, I hope you continue to post your stuff, I love seeing it.

I think the northern gulf coast dodged a huge bullet with this one. Anything out in the GOM definitely gives me a scare with all we've been through.

Good luck.

 

[Ranatra]

Matt, I just want to say Thank You for starting this thread and trying to keep us informed, I appreciate the time you've put into it.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 22


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2005



Wilma has turned northwestward...310/5...but this is not necessarily
the beginnings of recurvature. A short-wave trough in the
westerlies...the old low from Baja California...will move past the
longitude of the hurricane by tomorrow morning...and the track
models show a slight Bend back to the left as a little ridging
builds in behind it. In fact...the global models are now
suggesting that it may take three short waves to lift Wilma out of
the Yucatan. The GFDL did another big shift with its 5-day
forecast...from Canada at 6z to Cuba at 12z. There is less spread
in the GFS ensemble members this time...however...lending a little
more credence to a slower track. The 12z models also had the
benefit of dropwindsonde data from the NOAA gulfstream jet. The
new official forecast is slower than the previous one...but is
still very much faster than all of the available guidance. This
implies that the impact to Florida could well be later than
indicated here.
There is very little left of the inner eyewall...and reports from a
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Wilma is beginning to
restrengthen. Peak flight level winds were 145 kt...and the SFMR
instrument onboard measured a surface wind of 125 kt in the north
eyewall. Based on these observations...the initial intensity is
set at 130 kt. The upper-level outflow pattern remains strong and
Wilma will have the opportunity to regain category five status
before it reaches the Yucatan...and the impacts there could be
catastrophic. With the likelihood of a more extended interaction
with the Yucatan increasing...significant weakening is possible
before Wilma turns toward Florida. In addition...the longer Wilma
lingers before turning northeastward...the more hostile the
atmospheric environment will become for strengthening over the Gulf
of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin



This is a VERY INTERESTING discussion. Looks like Wilma may be limping into Florida (of course this is subject to change). You know, they are looking at a Monday landfall now, and I know on Monday we are supposed to be 70s here, yep a cold front moving through. strange, strange, strange.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Matt keep posting--I appreciate it!

Just went to Green Meadows farm in Kissimmee! I'm believing the livestock!
They said their duck and chicken counts were down a bit as they are sensing the approaching storm. They head out into the woods!

Very interesting field trip today as he described what the various animals were doing or will be doing for their hurricane prep!

The ducks and chickens don't have a meteorological certification--but their input is just as valid to the discussion.

 

[Southern4sure]

Met or no met you have the inside scoop for the FSU Superensemble model so I'll take all the info you have to offer.

Thanks Matt for keeping us posted.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Met or no met you have the inside scoop for the FSU Superensemble model so I'll take all the info you have to offer.

Thanks Matt for keeping us posted.

Now tell me about this model--until you two spoke of it, I have NEVER heard of it. Do tell--what is it and what's its track record?

 

[Talking Hands]

Nope no problem, I just want to make sure people are aware that this is a kid doing an internship. I think it's great, hands on is the best way to learn. But I am just afraid that people who have not read the entire thread will not know. I also get concerned when people post modeling and don't say it is a model. There is always so much information out there about these storms, I just like to be extra prudent.

Internships are under the mentorship of qualified meteorologists. While I basically go by the information I recieve from NHC I am sure this young man's predictions are as vailid as any. As long as we look at the cone and not the line we should be fairly aware of what is happening. Predicting hurricanes is not perfect unfortunately.
Keep watching the news and checking the National Hurricane Center and be prepared early.

 

[Southern4sure]

Now tell me about this model--until you two spoke of it, I have NEVER heard of it. Do tell--what is it and what's its track record?

This model is one the NHC uses along with other models. It is not a public model so only mets have access to see it. From what I hear it is pretty accurate. Here is a link that helps explain the model.

http://www.research.fsu.edu/scicol/3/teest.html

 

[mamalle]

Isnt that strange? we are supposed to be having lows of 53 monday night. Guess that could be nice if I have no power that night! Our weather guy said at 6pm that the National Hurricane Center states it may be even slower than what is forcasted. it should be interesting to hear what the 11pm advisory is. It sure is massive right now but this watching and waiting is making alot of people crazy here in south fla wondering...

 

[micknpluto]

Does anyone think they will close Orlando airport on Saturday? We are still planning to fly in early saturday morning,my family keeps asking if they are closing the airport, I dont see whay they would.I guess Ill have to wait to see I wish this thing would go away!!!!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Does anyone think they will close Orlando airport on Saturday? We are still planning to fly in early saturday morning,my family keeps asking if they are closing the airport, I dont see whay they would.I guess Ill have to wait to see I wish this thing would go away!!!!

Not at all!

Not with a predicted Florida landfall until Sunday or Monday...and if it is as far south as it is--at worst, there may be flight delays due to weather on those days.

You are fine for Saturday.

 

[micknpluto]

Not at all!

Not with a predicted Florida landfall until Sunday or Monday...and if it is as far south as it is--at worst, there may be flight delays due to weather on those days.

You are fine for Saturday.

I HAVE TO THANK YOU FOR THAT LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE YOU JUST BROUGHT US

THANKS