Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[Lumpy1106]

Not sure if this has been posted, but this seems like the right thread for this;
'Re' number by state
Obviously a lot less useful than at first glance - low population density states like Nebraska can have wild fluctuations in the Re number without really impacting the larger picture. Still, I like the comparison over time - shows things are changing and getting better overall if nothing else.

As an aside, IMHO, it's kinda silly arguing over data. Discussing it because it's interesting I'm all for. Here's a couple of data comparisons to mull over - neither here nor there;

• In the main hospital in my city, there have been, for the duration of this, more births every day than people needing hospital beds for COVID for the entire city. Approx 60 births per day vs. 50 COVID hospital beds max needed at peak.
• If restrictions remain in place for a year (DEFINITELY not in favor of that!) and projections remain where they are at, COVID will save lives overall in CA. How? Car accident deaths are down 50% which is more than projected COVID deaths.

 

[cabanafrau]

Don't know about other countries but Turkey looks like its about to go reall bad fast.

That's awful. I hope not. Human to human, it's hard to look at so much misery.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I'm not seeing that but maybe I need to re-read news articles on the reasons for the outbreaks at the nursing homes throughout the country. A quick glance at this article also noted under-staffing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

I don't know if you are familiar with convalescent hospitals and long term, end of life care facilities, but they are not fun to work at - more power to anyone who does. People, by nature, are dying all of the time, pay is really low, and yes, a lot of people who do this work have multiple jobs. Don't mean to sound insensitive, but, for the patients, how much does COVID really shorten their lives? The caregivers getting sick - that's another story.

 

[TLSnell1981]

According to Do something.org, an anti child abuse organization, 5 children die every day of child abuse.
According to the National Center for Fatality Review and Prevention about 1700 children die a year of child abuse in the U.S. That is 1700 too many in my book but Covid-19 beat that just yesterday.
Further, we can toss child abusers in prison at the same time we try to deal with covid 19. We have multitasking capability.

Well, except those agencies aren't functioning normally and those being abused are locked down with their abusers.

 

[xuxa777]

According to Do something.org, an anti child abuse organization, 5 children die every day of child abuse.
According to the National Center for Fatality Review and Prevention about 1700 children die a year of child abuse in the U.S. That is 1700 too many in my book but Covid-19 beat that just yesterday.
Further, we can toss child abusers in prison at the same time we try to deal with covid 19. We have multitasking capability.

Like others have realized earlier after saying the same thing as your post , look at my post , I was talking about children’s deaths.

 

[NYCgrrl]

I don't know if you are familiar with convalescent hospitals and long term, end of life care facilities, but they are not fun to work at - more power to anyone who does. People, by nature, are dying all of the time, pay is really low, and yes, a lot of people who do this work have multiple jobs. Don't mean to sound insensitive, but, for the patients, how much does COVID really shorten their lives? The caregivers getting sick - that's another story.

Horribly underpaid given the work they do.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Well, except those agencies aren't functioning normally and those being abused are locked down with their abusers.

The post I answered said child abuse deaths out number those of Corona. That isn't true. Further, last I checked, cops are still cops and jails are still functioning.

 

[cabanafrau]

Well, except those agencies aren't functioning normally and those being abused are locked down with their abusers.

I wish you were wrong, I really wish you were very, very wrong about that. Just awful to think about, unbearable.

 

[sam_gordon]

The post I answered said child abuse deaths out number those of Corona. That isn't true. Further, last I checked, cops are still cops and jails are still functioning.

It said child abuse deaths out number CHILD deaths of Corona. Not ALL deaths.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

Don't know about other countries but Turkey looks like its about to go reall bad fast.

Yes, it has been building there for a few weeks now. It won'y be the last to have a massive surge. High risk it will happen in parts of the USA that open up too soon.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Like others have realized earlier after saying the same thing as your post , look at my post , I was talking about children’s deaths.

Talk about cherry picking. You see 5 kids die a day from child abuse. And if we sweep 2156 of these 2158 Corona deaths under the rug child abuse is the bigger problem. Think of the children people think of the children. NO NO NO DON'T LOOK UNDER THAT BULGE IN THE RUG!!!

And like I said. We can take care of both at the same time. Perhaps you'll join me in calling for the ungutting of protective services that has happened over the years? Because my voice has been a lonely one in that regard over the years.

 

[Farro]

Talk about desperate cherry picking in order to deflect. You see 5 kids die a day from child abuse. And if we sweep 2156 of these 2158 Corona deaths under the rug child abuse is the bigger problem. Think of the children people think of the children. NO NO NO DON'T LOOK UNDER THAT BULGE IN THE RUG!!!

And like I said. We can take care of both at the same time. Perhaps you'll join me in calling for the ungutting of protective services that has happened over the years? Because my voice has been a lonely one in that regard over the years.

Are you saying 2158 children died of Corona?

I'm confused.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Are you saying 2158 children died of Corona?

I'm confused.

No. I'm saying that counting only children's deaths from corona is sweeping the vast majority of the problem of corona under the rug. And again we can take care of both at the same time.

Maybe it's just my suspicious nature, but it certainly seems to me to be an conveniently expedient argument rather than one of genuine concern.

Since when is blowing something off with a response of people die of this thing over here too or that thing over there too or that other thing way over there too or various things every day an acceptable response to anything? Especially because we're trying to do something about all those other things people are mentioning too.

Oh and I totally forgot. It would be academically dishonest not to disclose the bolded above is not entirely an original thought but expressed to me in private by another poster that I expanded upon. And no, before you ask. I'm not going to name them. If they wish to disclose who they are, they can. It's a PM for a reason.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

I would not be surprised I believe we have roughly 15 kids in hospital with it right now

 

[cobright]

Obesity is the number one underlying condition. The US isn’t exactly thin.

I was just reading ... hmmm ... here it is. It shows top underlying health condition for covid deaths in 3 hard hit states. Even in Louisiana, obesity was only the 4th most common condition. In New York and New Jersey obesity didn't even rank in the top 4.

 

[cobright]

The harsh reality is somebody has to pay the bills and care for the sick, old, young, and vulnerable, plus all those in between.

You forgot to end your sentence. What you wrote simply isn't true. To be true it would need to end with something like, "... or else a lot of people will die needlessly."

Right? Because that's the decisions nations are making right now, the extent to which they, as a nation, will pay to keep their people from dying. That's a big part of why some large, modern, wealthy developed nations have deaths/1M Pop in the hundreds and others have less than 50.

Total deaths for covid of children <14 year old to date - 3, as of end of last week. Take it up to age of less 25 years old and it is only 24 deaths total.

Why does this mean we should take this virus less seriously? I'm still at a loss on this one.

Not sure how nursing homes are set up in your area but here they are basically self contained units where the virus passes from one patient to another via workers w/o PPE, and limited space.

Self contained except for the 3 shifts of staff that all go home at the end of their workdays.

Then why isn't it happening? It may sound easy, but if it was really that easy it wouldn't be happening.

It's not easy. To secure nursing home residents, most of them would have to be moved to a hospital ward and put under care of state workers who are observing higher levels of quarantine themselves.

Most nursing homes are privately run and their average worker will not be willing to completely self-isolate for the pay they get.

Where did you find number of deaths for under 25s? I need a source to show my extremely anxious 21yo that she is not actually at any statistical risk.

If your daughter died of this it would be unusual enough to probably make the national news. I'm in the 'let's take this much more seriously' camp but the risks of your 21 yr old dying from this really are negligible.

She's much more likely to give it to you and then you die. If that makes her feel better.

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
what doesn't make sense is why they only list 21K deaths across all ages from COVID. But, just looking at the relative numbers, from age 24 and younger, about 1% of the deaths fall into that age range.

If they're using last weeks numbers, they shouldn't say "Data as of April 22,2020" (that's today for those reading later).

The CDC does note that because this reporting requires a little more confirmation. The reporting hospital submits a statistical reporting code to the cdc for each death. Some hospitals are quicker about it than others and there is between a 1-8 week lag.

 

[Heather07438]

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

View attachment 489906

What doesn't make sense is why they only list 21K deaths across all ages from COVID. But, just looking at the relative numbers, from age 24 and younger, about 1% of the deaths fall into that age range.

I wonder if the 'deaths from other causes' is the same time frame- some 98% of covid deaths happened in last 4 weeks. Will this index be MUCH different when we come back and look a year later?

Are we basically comparing 4 weeks of covid to 4 months in all other categories?

 

[Heather07438]

I was just reading ... hmmm ... here it is. It shows top underlying health condition for covid deaths in 3 hard hit states. Even in Louisiana, obesity was only the 4th most common condition. In New York and New Jersey obesity didn't even rank in the top 4.

I wish there were statistics on how much more likely people with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity, smoking are to develop Covid19, become critical or die, then sorted by age/sex group.

 

[sam_gordon]

I wish there were statistics on how much more likely people with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity, smoking are to develop Covid19, become critical or die, then sorted by age/sex group.

I wish there were statistics on how likely ANYONE is to develop Covid19, become critical or die.

Testing is the key. Whether that's to find out if you have it, or if you've had it.

 

[Notrealname]

I wish there were statistics on how much more likely people with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity, smoking are to develop Covid19, become critical or die, then sorted by age/sex group.

That data are available, not that I can direct you to them. Analyzing all that data in order to turn it in to useful information is way beyond my pay grade, and likely beyond almost all on this board.
And really, what benefit from that info is there for us here? We already know the lifestyle choices we need to make to avoid or minimize those conditions.