Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[WebmasterMaryJo]

I've just gone through several pages where posters were bringing in politics, and where some of you have been sniping at each other. Please remember that here on the disboards, guidelines are pretty basic - keep it clean, be courteous to each other, no politics or religion. If we see more posts that don't follow the guidelines we'll lock the thread.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Deleted

 

[xuxa777]

More news that the virus has been circulating even earlier than previously stated, evidence now shows it was in California in January of this year. That news is good.

 

[sam_gordon]

More news that the virus has been circulating even earlier than previously stated, evidence now shows it was in California in January of this year. That news is good.

I'm not doubting you, but it's a good idea that if you claim "evidence" is out there that you provide a way for others to see the same evidence.

 

[monkeydawn]

I'm not doubting you, but it's a good idea that if you claim "evidence" is out there that you provide a way for others to see the same evidence.

I dont know if this is general sentiment or if you are expressly interested in this story. If the latter, this story is out in lots of places this morning. I ran into three times just browsing for news from different sources. I know CNN had it, cant recall which other news sites showed it. If you need help finding I can link later.

I dont exactly see this as the "good news" that the OP does, we dont have enough research on the virus in immunity sense and long term implications sense to state that its great news the virus is more pervasive than thought by some. And I figured it had to be more pervasive than testing was showing AND that it was affecting the US long before we thought anyway so it isnt exactly a newsflash to me.

 

[NYCgrrl]

I'm not doubting you, but it's a good idea that if you claim "evidence" is out there that you provide a way for others to see the same evidence.

Hope this source is part of the free coverage:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/...cle&region=Footer&contentCollection=U.S. News

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I dont know if this is general sentiment or if you are expressly interested in this story. If the latter, this story is out in lots of places this morning. I ran into three times just browsing for news from different sources. I know CNN had it, cant recall which other news sites showed it. If you need help finding I can link later.

I dont exactly see this as the "good news" that the OP does, we dont have enough research on the virus in immunity sense and long term implications sense to state that its great news the virus is more pervasive than thought by some. And I figured it had to be more pervasive than testing was showing AND that it was affecting the US long before we thought anyway so it isnt exactly a newsflash to me.

The silver lining, if you will, that I can see about looking at just how many people have had it, even looking at the length of time it's been here, is 1) it could be seen as helping to lower the statistical death rate as more information about just how many people may have had it and self-recovered 2) it could be seen as that many more people had milder or no symptoms.

Of course..part of that is recognizing that we all could have been spreading it around far earlier and at a larger number than originally thought but I'm going for looking at some sort of 'good' viewpoint about increasing knowledge.

 

[sam_gordon]

I dont know if this is general sentiment or if you are expressly interested in this story. If the latter, this story is out in lots of places this morning. I ran into three times just browsing for news from different sources. I know CNN had it, cant recall which other news sites showed it. If you need help finding I can link later.

The former.

 

[xuxa777]

I dont know if this is general sentiment or if you are expressly interested in this story. If the latter, this story is out in lots of places this morning. I ran into three times just browsing for news from different sources. I know CNN had it, cant recall which other news sites showed it. If you need help finding I can link later.

I dont exactly see this as the "good news" that the OP does, we dont have enough research on the virus in immunity sense and long term implications sense to state that its great news the virus is more pervasive than thought by some. And I figured it had to be more pervasive than testing was showing AND that it was affecting the US long before we thought anyway so it isnt exactly a newsflash to me.

I agree it is not a newsflash to me either , we will probably find it was here back in December, the news is science and mainstream media is now picking it up officially

 

[hopemax]

More news that the virus has been circulating even earlier than previously stated, evidence now shows it was in California in January of this year. That news is good.

Except it's not really true (in the way people what it to be). Here is the CNN article.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
Now, scroll down to where it shows the timeline, and look at what it says for Jan 21 "First US Case confirmed in Washington State."

These new deaths, don't really change the timelime. The epidemiologists already knew it was circulating on the West Coast since January. The Kirkland Fire Department reviewed their call logs, and realized that they had been making calls to the Lifecare Center since late January. They lack the official confirmation of patient blood/tissue samples, but the conditions they have been operating with, presume infections in January / early February. The NextStrain data from gene sequencing samples they do have gave epidemiologists the mutation information where they could "walk it back." They didn't have tissue/blood sample confirmation from patients that early, but they knew they must have existed. It's always better to be able to confirm something, than presume something. So these tissue samples are useful.

It just doesn't mean what people want it to mean. This doesn't mean that many, many more people were infected. It doesn't mean your November and December cold were this. It doesn't mean that the virus is less deadly and we can go back to living normally.

 

[jlwhitney]

More news that the virus has been circulating even earlier than previously stated, evidence now shows it was in California in January of this year. That news is good.

I was just going to post this. Autopsies confirmed earlist CA death to Feb 6 with no known travel to china which indicates community spread in santa clara county as early as mid jan, possibly earl jan. Before this the first death was feb 29 in WA.

This is huge!

 

[buzznina]

Just saw this from Dr. Gupta on Corona cases that all pointed back to a restaurant that they were all at and how it spread from the host to 9 other people over 3 tables. The host was diagnosed with Corona on Jan. 24th. He was using this case to show how contagious this virus is.

 

[hopemax]

I was just going to post this. Autopsies confirmed earlist CA death to Feb 6 with no known travel to china which indicates community spread in santa clara county as early as mid jan, possibly earl jan. Before this the first death was feb 29 in WA.

This is huge!

Just repeating for effect. The first confirmed US case is from January 21 in Washington State. The young man from the Seattle Flu Study, who did not die. We already knew there was West Coast community spread in January. These deaths provide additional data points, but it's not huge! unfortunately.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

It doesn't mean your November and December cold were this. It doesn't mean that the virus is less deadly and we can go back to living normally.

Yeah I don't think it means November and December but I also don't see anyone using the information (like the LA county antibody study that suggests the amount of infected people were 55 times the amount of confirmed cases that) to mean we could go back to living normally. The only people I see saying that are people who think in extremes as if there's only 2 ways of speaking about anything related to the virus.

Less deadly implies that people don't necessarily die from it as much as we thought but that's not the phrasing I've seen. People die from it but the more people who have had it and self-recovered from it the more the ratio widens.

 

[Kimberlyann11]

Thats not true. We DO know that Covid-19 is out there. We DO know that it is more virulent than "regular " flu. We KNOW these things right now.

We also know that the incubation period for the flu is 2-5 days while the incubation period for the Covid is 2-14 days. You can walk around contagious for two weeks before you even start showing symptoms, which makes your case even stronger.

 

[xuxa777]

Just repeating for effect. The first confirmed US case is from January 21 in Washington State. The young man from the Seattle Flu Study, who did not die. We already knew there was West Coast community spread in January. These deaths provide additional data points, but it's not huge! unfortunately.

Yes, first case was on 1/21, but that was not community spread. The first official community spread case was about a week later, but the news here is it was a death that was listed much earlier than has been known that is all.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

I don't know why it would be good news. The two cases were determined by autopsy. How many other cases are out there where an infected person died, was never tested, never autopsied, and cause of death listed as pneumonia. Probably many. New data points from the early going, when there were relatively few cases, are not going to change the overall numbers much.

On a related note, there were 1000 more burials than normal in Jakarta, Indonesia in March. For the entire country of Indonesia, 83 coronavirus deaths were reported in March.

Underreporting of coronavirus deaths is probably very prevalent, especially in 3rd world countries with limited testing capability. The impact of this virus is likely much worse than the official numbers show.

 

[xuxa777]

Another interesting news item, as far as to some reason why NY and Italy exploded as a hot spot for deaths. In NY for example Covid-19 positive infectious patients were instructed to be admitted back to nursing homes, it was New York policy to ease hosptials. Putting infectiuous patient back into their nursing home of high risk people. The same thing happened in the Italian hotspot of Lombardy. This policy probably drove of up the death rate significantly in those regions as at least 30-40% of the Covid deaths are in nursing homes and most likely it will be even a higher percentage. This will be interesting to see how it develops.

 

[Praying Colonel]

I don't know why it would be good news. The two cases were determined by autopsy. How many other cases are out there where an infected person died, was never tested, never autopsied, and cause of death listed as pneumonia. Probably many. New data points from the early going, when there were relatively few cases, are not going to change the overall numbers much.

On a related note, there were 1000 more burials than normal in Jakarta, Indonesia in March. For the entire country of Indonesia, 83 coronavirus deaths were reported in March.

Underreporting of coronavirus deaths is probably very prevalent, especially in 3rd world countries with limited testing capability. The impact of this virus is likely much worse than the official numbers show.

This is one reason why the current viral (no pun intended) theory making the rounds that Covid deaths are being overreported is off base.

 

[xuxa777]

I don't know why it would be good news. The two cases were determined by autopsy. How many other cases are out there where an infected person died, was never tested, never autopsied, and cause of death listed as pneumonia. Probably many. New data points from the early going, when there were relatively few cases, are not going to change the overall numbers much.

On a related note, there were 1000 more burials than normal in Jakarta, Indonesia in March. For the entire country of Indonesia, 83 coronavirus deaths were reported in March.

Underreporting of coronavirus deaths is probably very prevalent, especially in 3rd world countries with limited testing capability. The impact of this virus is likely much worse than the official numbers show.

Population of Indonesia is close to the US population, with only 635 deaths they would have to be undercounting by 30,000 deaths at a minimum to be even close to the US.