Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[Moliphino]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

In my county, about a quarter of all deaths were in one nursing home.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Why is that?

Maybe because some of the things being said in these threads is absolutely appalling.

 

[fatmanatee]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/...ews-hasidic-ny.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

 

[bakerworld]

I realize that many people with underlying causes have CTB but it is the speed of the infection and the certainty of death - especially once ventilated - for the compromised individuals that is scary.

 

[KBoopaloo]

In Massachusetts it was just announced the average age to date, of Covid deaths, is 81 year old . 97.5% of all deaths having underlying conditions.

But death is not the only bad outcome here either. We still don't know much about the long-term consequences for people who get the virus and survive. A physician in Austria recently spoke about the severe lung damage he is still seeing 5-6 weeks after recovery in 6 scuba divers all of whom had cases mild enough to be treated at home. The doctor is advising other divers to be checked out and cleared by a doctor before resuming any diving activity even if they only had a mild case.

https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagessch...ungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck.&wt

 

[sam_gordon]

The part about cases needing to decline for 14 consecutive days

Is that accurate? According to the WH site, they want a "downward trajectory". I don't know that they require 14 consecutive days of lower cases.

Personally, I would consider this a "downward trajectory" (US numbers) since April 4.:

 

[cabanafrau]

That is obvious , but with the numerous posters saying that the virus is dangerous and deadly to all ages, the data is showing that it is clearly not.

Are you suggesting that there have been zero deaths or serious illness requiring extensive medical intervention among young otherwise healthy people?

 

[fatmanatee]

But death is not the only bad outcome here either. We still don't know much about the long-term consequences for people who get the virus and survive. A physician in Austria recently spoke about the severe lung damage he is still seeing 5-6 weeks after recovery in 6 scuba divers all of whom had cases mild enough to be treated at home. The doctor is advising other divers to be checked out and cleared by a doctor before resuming any diving activity even if they only had a mild case.

https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagessch...ungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck.&wt

This is another aspect of the virus we really haven't grappled enough with yet (bc we're dealing with everything else) but I'm definitely nervous for anyone who was hit hard by this, recovered, but are still having issues with lung function. It's not only a quality of life issue but might also reduce people's lifespans. Unfortunately, like everything else with this, we won't know the full effects for awhile.

 

[MATTERHORN]

For those that have stated concern for children and people < 14 latest info from CDC as of today.

Since February 1, 2020, 169 children under the age of 14 have died of pneumonia or the flu not COVID. Only 3 have died from COVID. Nationwide

Under age 24: 20 COVID deaths and 115 influenza (regular flu) deaths.

Also only 510 deaths under 45 years old out of 190 million people under 45. Some other great info here from the CDC to put things into perspective

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
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Glad we closed schools for the year

Did you ever stop to think those numbers are so small *because* we closed schools? Seriously!

 

[Colleen27]

Just thinking a minute following countries/areas have considerable anti government sentiment-
Spain with the Catalans
Mexico with the Cartels
Venezuela with the anti socialists
Various African countries with various factions

I don’t know of any in Asia but there well may be.

I'll give you Spain. That is a functional state and I had totally forgotten about the Catalan independence movement.

The rest, though kind of go to the point I was trying to make and that is that the level of anti-government feeling we consider normal here is more common in a failed or failing state than in a functional democracy.

So that is your takeaway from the data? If so we should close schools for the year for the flu too.

I am all for being skeptical but it seems a lot want the virus to be worse than it actually is after looking at the real data of what is happening.

I don't think it is wanting it to be worse (other than some in the media, for whom this whole thing is a pageviews bonanza). But fear is a powerful motivator and the mindset of wanting to err on the side of maximum caution is pretty entrenched, so any 'good' news almost looks like a threat because it could support taking risks that they don't want to see taken.

Fun fact if everyone in the world stayed completely 100% isolated for 2 weeks or so, the virus will be completely eradicated.

That's actually not true. The incubation period averages 5-6 days but can be as long as two weeks, and people who have the virus can retain it in their system for as long as 37 days (which isn't to say they're contagious that long, but we don't know at what point contagion is no longer possible). And since you couldn't possibly isolate everyone completely - a toddler, for example, can't be isolated without a parent - you have to contend with a family size multiplier that can account for each person catching it in turn rather than all at once. That's why eradicating the disease isn't considered possible. It would require something more akin to isolating every household for a minimum of 4-6 weeks and potentially much longer for larger families. And of course, that doesn't account for how to deal with healthcare workers who cannot isolate themselves from their patients.

 

[xuxa777]

Is that accurate? According to the WH site, they want a "downward trajectory". I don't know that they require 14 consecutive days of lower cases.

Personally, I would consider this a "downward trajectory" (US numbers) since April 4.:
View attachment 489716

You are exactly right , what I have been saying all along but a few don't seem to understand that

 

[xuxa777]

In my county, about a quarter of all deaths were in one nursing home.

That is what is nationwide and most likely higher percent are nursing home deaths.

 

[xuxa777]

I'll give you Spain. That is a functional state and I had totally forgotten about the Catalan independence movement.

The rest, though kind of go to the point I was trying to make and that is that the level of anti-government feeling we consider normal here is more common in a failed or failing state than in a functional democracy.



I don't think it is wanting it to be worse (other than some in the media, for whom this whole thing is a pageviews bonanza). But fear is a powerful motivator and the mindset of wanting to err on the side of maximum caution is pretty entrenched, so any 'good' news almost looks like a threat because it could support taking risks that they don't want to see taken.



That's actually not true. The incubation period averages 5-6 days but can be as long as two weeks, and people who have the virus can retain it in their system for as long as 37 days (which isn't to say they're contagious that long, but we don't know at what point contagion is no longer possible). And since you couldn't possibly isolate everyone completely - a toddler, for example, can't be isolated without a parent - you have to contend with a family size multiplier that can account for each person catching it in turn rather than all at once. That's why eradicating the disease isn't considered possible. It would require something more akin to isolating every household for a minimum of 4-6 weeks and potentially much longer for larger families. And of course, that doesn't account for how to deal with healthcare workers who cannot isolate themselves from their patients.

The eradication was a hypothetical, of course we couldn't do it, just a fun fact it could be eradicated in a impossible scenario as could any virus.

Totally get the "good news" appear like a threat, very obvious.

 

[xuxa777]

Did you ever stop to think those numbers are so small *because* we closed schools? Seriously!

Not really because the trends were already in decline before the schools were ordered closed

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Not really because the trends were already in decline before the schools were ordered closed

Where?

Our schools here have been closed since mid-March and we won't hit our peak until the end of May.

ETA: Across the country, schools were closed long before places hit their peak.

 

[MATTERHORN]

Not really because the trends were already in decline before the schools were ordered closed

I've yet to read such blatantly false information. Schools here in Florida got out March 12. That was right when things were ramping up here! Do you even bother with facts?

 

[dvcgirl67]

That's actually not true. The incubation period averages 5-6 days but can be as long as two weeks, and people who have the virus can retain it in their system for as long as 37 days (which isn't to say they're contagious that long, but we don't know at what point contagion is no longer possible). And since you couldn't possibly isolate everyone completely - a toddler, for example, can't be isolated without a parent - you have to contend with a family size multiplier that can account for each person catching it in turn rather than all at once. That's why eradicating the disease isn't considered possible. It would require something more akin to isolating every household for a minimum of 4-6 weeks and potentially much longer for larger families. And of course, that doesn't account for how to deal with healthcare workers who cannot isolate themselves from their patients.

Yes, this is true. And we're not all able to completely isolate. We're having everything we can delivered, but still need to run out for things here and there, principally meat as supplies are sketchy from the grocery stores. My sister is handling getting food to our parents. I'm handling getting food to DH's parents. We are the ones in our respective households going out when necessary, which is what Dr. Birx said we should be doing (one shopper per household if you can)....etc.

And while most of us are doing our best to socially distance and wear masks, etc, not everyone is doing that. And like you said, when we "open back up"...we're also going to be co-mingling with the healthcare workers, factory workers, grocery store workers...etc. And some of them will be asymptomatic spreaders. And so the virus will begin to spread again.

 

[MATTERHORN]

Where?

Our schools here have been closed since mid-March and we won't hit our peak until the end of May.

ETA: Across the country, schools were closed long before places hit their peak.

Exactly! Not sure which data this person goes by, but it's completely false! Almost nowhere in the USA hit their peak in March!

 

[sam_gordon]

Not really because the trends were already in decline before the schools were ordered closed

Sorry, also disagree. Schools have been closed since mid March here also and we hit our (current) peak about a week after. The IHME site says we'll hit our peak in two days. I don't think that's accurate though.

 

[cobright]

But you can look at the data and very easily see deaths and new cases are not increasing at this time. Deaths have remained about 100/day since April 1st and new cases have leveled.

Nothing else in Sweden is killing 100 people a day. For the last 10 years, Sweden averages just 250 deaths a day. Corona Virus has increased the number of people dying there a day by 40%. That's not normal.

I understand but a Canadian company did test a SARS vaccine and had disastrous results.

Here is a report on SARS Vaccine testing. What you're talking about is a secondary TH2 immunopathologic response triggered by exposure to the SARS virus in vaccinated lab animals. This happened at very early stages of testing and it's something they were more or less expecting. The vaccines caused the TH2 response in some of the mice types used, the primates, and the ferrets. Some of the vaccines tested did not provoke this response in some mice and the hamsters. All of the vaccines induced protection against SARS-Coronavirus.

The current estimates (which seem to change about every week or so) put it at twice as contagious as flu.

It could be quite a bit higher. Maybe R0 value of over 5 compared to 1.3 of flu.

But he really didn't have a choice, so back he went. If he'd refused he couldn't keep claiming unemployment

This is why there is so much push to re-open the country. There are huge financial interests that need the rest of us to get back to work. They want us unable to refuse to put ourselves at greater risk.

I thought in this time while we were down that plans would be developed to address ways in which we could stagger workers or alternate work spaces, and stuff like that. Very odd the way things are opening up.

If it was as bad as some would like you to believe there would not be one grocery store clerk left alive by now.

Well, they are getting it pretty bad.

Do you have any thoughts on why Queens out of the Burroughs was especially hard hit?

I lived in Brooklyn for 2 years, I can think of two things. First, Brooklyn and Queens both have airports, so increased contact with foreign travelers. Second, the median income and just the nature of work done in Manhattan means a larger portion are able to work from home.

So, if you take the lower end of their estimate (30 times the number of cases) - the rate of fatality is .14% (1/10th of 1 percent) and the rate of hospitalization is .84% (8/10th of 1%). And that includes all the vulnerable. If we tell the vulnerable to be more cautious we don't have the big bad boogie man the media and certain officials are making this out to be.

Right, we just let everyone hurry up and get it and no big deal, it's just a virus killing 14,000 in LA. Is that the thinking here? Lock the old and disabled into sick wards and let a quarter million (assuming a much lower fatalaty rate once the old people are written off) of the rest of us die?

Do you not go out during the regular flu season? Do you not drive a car?

Not what he was asking, do you go out when healthy during flu season or drive a car anytime during flu season.

Most of us do what we must to survive and take risks to support that end. That's a part of life we all accept. But when what we do puts others at risk we have a greater responsibility to do them only when necessary.

The flu is a horrible comparison because you become symptomatic within a day or so and when one does get ill it is only the most horrible among us that continue to go out and about. And we have a vaccine for the flu that usually does a pretty good job of reducing the transmission of the most dangerous seasonal flu strains.

So that is your takeaway from the data? If so we should close schools for the year for the flu too.

The CDC says that so far this flu season (a particularly bad one) we're averaging about 65 deaths a day from the flu. That's the whole country. At the peak of this flu season, we were losing 583 people a WEEK. In 2018 (an even worse flu season) the most deaths we had was 1600 in a WEEK.
Nearly 2000 people died yesterday from covid19. We're averaging over 2k dead a DAY from covid19.

This is a ridiculous comparison.

Personally, I would consider this a "downward trajectory" (US numbers) since April 4.:

This is what a downward trajectory looks like:

That spot between April 7 and 11... that's the point where China lifted its lockdown.
Here's what we have: