Will the cost per point ever go down?

[tx2tn]

If all of the DVC ownerships revert back to Disney in 2045 (+ or -) except for SSR, does this mean that the cost per point will eventually start going down as the revert date gets coser? Or will the new contracts have a later revert date?

 

[dianeschlicht]

So far there has been one resort with a later revert date...SSR. I would expect DVC to continue to build new resorts to replace the old ones as they expire on their leases. That is assuming that WDW contiues to thrive and be a viable vacation destination. I do think you will see a decrease in resale prices for the original resorts at some point in the future, but I wouldn't expect to see that much before 25 years out from the contract.

 

[sigillaria]

I believe they will....
who will pay premium points for a resort with only a few years left?
They may be stable to the 15-20 year mark.
Many think Dis will re-sell the points to a whole new set of DVC-ers, or in the case of OKW-tear it down and rebuild a different resort. OKW sits on a lot of valuable land.

 

[spiceycat]

I think if the economy is good and Disney is having record crowded.... then guess what Disney buys all the DVC resorts back and starts to rent them out...

they won't need any maintence - your fees have been paying for the maintence all these years...

I don't think Disney will allow anyone to stay on their property for a bottom price....not when they can charge $435 for the Polyn for one night....

now if Disney is not doing so good - I think around the 15th year before January, 2042 (when most of the DVC expire) - they will offer the current members a deal....I expect something until at least 2054 (when SSR expires)

however, my opinion, if Disney is doing great and filling up all their rooms for at least 4 months of the year....sorry folks - I think Disney will buy back and DVC will quit in 2054....

 

[snowbunny]

sorry folks - I think Disney will buy back and DVC will quit in 2054....

Can't imagine I'll care in 2054, if I'm still around (unlikely), I surely won't be sentient

 

[spiceycat]

Can't imagine I'll care in 2054, if I'm still around (unlikely), I surely won't be sentient

me too - but my friend is on those live forever kick.....

 

[CarolA]

they won't need any maintence - your fees have been paying for the maintence all these years...

I don't think Disney will allow anyone to stay on their property for a bottom price....not when they can charge $435 for the Polyn for one night....

now if Disney is not doing so good - I think around the 15th year before January, 2042 (when most of the DVC expire) - they will offer the current members a deal....I expect something until at least 2054 (when SSR expires)

however, my opinion, if Disney is doing great and filling up all their rooms for at least 4 months of the year....sorry folks - I think Disney will buy back and DVC will quit in 2054....

you may be right, but they WILL need maintenance. It's an ongoing expense...

 

[bongo59]

based upon the 2042 date and the mkt dynamics extrapolated via the growth rates WDW has had since opening my financial folks have told us to expect the prices to stabilize and decline in 14-16 yrs.............the main assumption of this model is the hotel rates staying close to historical norms and inflation remaining in the 2-3 % range ..................lots of assumptions but i think that is about as accurate as one could get 15 yrs out................

 

[mydogdrew]

The only thing that is certain is that all DVC I contracts will have no value in 2042. When the depreciation of value begins is open to debate. They may or may not offer an extension to 2054 (or later) but you'll pay for that (much like buying an SSR resale in 2042).

 

[DrTomorrow]

me too - but my friend is on those live forever kick.....

Hmmmm. Maybe they'll add DVC Cryro-Chambers: be frozen forever at WDW (it was good enough for Walt....)

 

[YoMickey]

I will hold it until the end. Hopefully, I'll be gving away a 1 week in a 1 bedroom to each of my kid's and grandkid's. All of course from the comfort of my nursing home. Hopefully someone else will track my points because I will have dementia.


After 2042, the kid's will be on their own for WDW, They'll be 36, 39, and 42 and big enough to book their own trips..

Yo

 

[CantSleep]

Even in those final years the points should have great value to rent out as the price for 1 week or more at Disney will be out of this world....

but as more and more contracts go to resale--as people get older and want the cash for other reason-- they maybe better off becoming renters as I assume the contract price will go down...

We may see a whole new way of using DVC and boards like this could be the future... or does Disney have a plan...

 

[JimMIA]

I think it depends entirely on what Disney does with ROFR. If they continue building and selling new resorts (or converting wings of existing resorts to DVC like aging hotels converting to condos), they will need to maintain ROFR to support their "new" pricing. Nobody is going to pay $101 for SSR if they can buy another DVC for $50...or less. ROFR maintains the floor of resale prices, supply and demand sets the ceiling.

IF Disney abandons ROFR, prices will drop in a hurry. If they maintain it, I think the guesses of 12-15 years before expiration are reasonable.

 

[byoung]

The closer we get to 2042, they have to go down. Disney is doing a great job now in keeping them up.

 

[Deb & Bill]

They will become DVC Nursing Homes for all of us old geezers.

 

[Dean]

If all of the DVC ownerships revert back to Disney in 2045 (+ or -) except for SSR, does this mean that the cost per point will eventually start going down as the revert date gets coser? Or will the new contracts have a later revert date?

Of course the price/value will go down eventually, the only question is when. My prediction is in the 24-27 year range but it will depend on new sales and the ROFR to a degree.

 

[Anewman]

factor in INFLATION?

Resales going in the 80s-90s right now, well will $90 really be considered expensive in the year 2026?

If inflation goes through the roof during the next 30 years or so, DVC points just staying in todays price range should be considered a price drop.

 

[sigillaria]

I think if the economy is good and Disney is having record crowded.... then guess what Disney buys all the DVC resorts back and starts to rent them out.......

Disney does not have to buy them back...they already own them all. DVC members only bought the right to use them for 50 years.

 

[Hogzilla]

factor in INFLATION?

Resales going in the 80s-90s right now, well will $90 really be considered expensive in the year 2026?

If inflation goes through the roof during the next 30 years or so, DVC points just staying in todays price range should be considered a price drop.

Exactly. At just 3.5% annual inflation the price for new points in DVC in 2026 should be around $200.

 

[fishermouse]

Hmmmm. Maybe they'll add DVC Cryro-Chambers: be frozen forever at WDW (it was good enough for Walt....)

just thought I'd throw this in..
as per snoops.com

Claim: Walt Disney arranged to have himself frozen in cryonic chamber full of liquid nitrogen upon his death, and he now awaits the day when medical technology makes his re-animation possible.
Status: False.

Origins: When the "frozen Disney" rumor was started, and by whom, is unknown. The privacy Disney maintained concerning his personal life extended to his death, and the lack of details available about his funeral and burial arrangements -- combined with his reputation as a technological innovator -- has helped foster the story of Disney's cryonic suspension ever since.