Will the CDC extend the No Sail Order?

[DCLDVC1]

Their decision is coming soon.

 

[MomOTwins]

With so many US sailings out of Florida, I don't see them allowing sailings any time soon.

 

[T & R]

Would be nice if they could find another industry to fixate on other than cruising. So far it's just been cruising and infections still going up at record pace, so they may want to regulate more than a single industry if they really want to be helping.

 

[T & R]

Still baffles me that they ban/regulate cruising but do not require masks on airplanes. So far the airline industry has self regulated and it's the airline companies/airports themselves that require masks, not the FAA or CDC. In the air is fed territory and airports are ports of entry so also fed territory. Well within their lane to require masks but so far the CDC has only focused on cruising.

 

[jcbftw]

I am also surprised at the lack of enforcement on air travel versus cruising, but there are enough differences--length of travel and amount of passengers I think being the most significant, but also the opportunities to touch things, eat things, etc., that could get you sick is just much less.

I have a September 27th cruise out of San Diego that I 100% confident will not sail; at this point, we're a little over two months out. I would just like to know so I can figure out if I want to take a credit, a refund, and then re-arrange my booked flights and hotels. Right now, it feels like I've just given a $5K loan to Disney.

 

[Clojel]

My guess is that part of the CLIAs decision to voluntarily delay sailing until sept 15 was to induce the CDC NOT to extend their order when the time came. The thinking being that there’s no point to extend if the industry has already taken a more restrictive approach on their own. Hoping it worked and that the CDC doesn’t extend

 

[Brett Wyman]

Im pretty sure exactly zero cruises of any size will leave US shores in 2020.

 

[gotomu212]

Whether the CDC does it or the CLIA or individual companies, I cannot imagine any scenario where ships will be sailing from the US in 2 months. With positivity rates what they are in Florida, what we know about indoor dining and bars, with crew still not allowed to fly in, with international port restrictions, and with growing cases across the county we are nowhere near ready for confined gatherings of thousands over several days of cruising.

 

[T & R]

My guess is that part of the CLIAs decision to voluntarily delay sailing until sept 15 was to induce the CDC NOT to extend their order when the time came. The thinking being that there’s no point to extend if the industry has already taken a more restrictive approach on their own. Hoping it worked and that the CDC doesn’t extend

When the CLIA ban announcement first came out, I was upset with them and thought how can you do that to your own industry but I guess a 53 day voluntary ban is better than a 100 day mandatory one. Maybe the CDC will back off and let the cruise industry self regulate, they let the airlines/airports self regulate and they see way more people per day than cruising.

 

[vegs1]

Would be nice if they could find another industry to fixate on other than cruising. So far it's just been cruising and infections still going up at record pace, so they may want to regulate more than a single industry if they really want to be helping.

I had read somewhere in the last few months that airlines, rail, buses, etc are considered essential. You get on, a few hours later you get off. Some people need them to get to work. Not the case with a cruise. You’re on there for a few days to a week or more depending on the itinerary, more chance to touch things, more days for symptoms to show that weren’t. For me, that makes sense. Cruising is considered pleasure, non essential. It’s just a large amount of people in fairly close proximity for a prolonged period of time which is what they don’t want to help stop the transmission.

I totally agree that other modes of transportation could be looked at but because a cruise is purely a pleasure activity, I’m assuming that’s why.

Because you have made this same statement on many threads, I can only imagine how extremely disappointed you are that cruising has stopped for now. I think everyone feels badly for those missing out on a cruise they had planned but it is what it is for now. Hopefully something will give down the road whether it be a vaccine, treatment, better plan for safety. We all want to travel. Let’s hope this is just temporary.

 

[T & R]

I had read somewhere in the last few months that airlines, rail, buses, etc are considered essential. You get on, a few hours later you get off. Some people need them to get to work. Not the case with a cruise.

I agree but the virus doesn't care what is essential and what isn't. Regulation by the CDC should be done to help fight Covid, not to just help fight Covid on non-essential industries. Plus cruising is essential to the approx half million cruise industry employees.

 

[JM_97]

I will be shocked if they don't extend it

 

[LTJoeFlo]

I go back and forth on this one. I was watching that Bahama Paradise cruise on July 25th. I wondered how that could possible make money if cruise interest isn’t very strong at the moment. I saw one analyst point to a 70% decrease in RCCL/NCL web traffic (year-over-year). This weekend, Bahama Paradise pushed the cruise date back another month. The CDC might not need to extend the ban. Cruise lines might not have the ability to operate without taking a loss. But, it might still extend the ban to keep all cruise lines on the same schedule.

As far as the cruise line / airline discussion, it’s important to point out two things. Both are political.
1. Boeing is the largest exporter in the United States. It would be a risky move to put any type of restrictions on this company during a recession. They are already seeing a large number of cancelled orders due to a lack of air travel demand.
2. Cruise lines intentionally flag their vessels in foreign countries to avoid the strict safety and labor standards in the US. That has probably earned them special attention during this pandemic.

 

[T & R]

If CDC does extend the ban, could cruise lines just cruise in and out of non-US ports? I would be willing to fly to St. Lucia or somewhere else for embarkation day. St. Lucia goes to phase 2 opening on 08/01.

 

[gotomu212]

If CDC does extend the ban, could cruise lines just cruise in and out of non-US ports? I would be willing to fly to St. Lucia or somewhere else for embarkation day. St. Lucia goes to phase 2 opening on 08/01.

I really get that you want to cruise and are ready...but I think the reality is that thousands of your fellow cruisers are not. The logistics of cruising out of a non-US port are huge. First, international travel needs to be allowed there and back, all cruisers need a passport if flying out (a lot of people cruise with birth certificates), then everyone needs plane tickets (a lot of cruisers drive to port), the cruise line has to deal with resupplying in places where they don’t have large existing contracts. It’s a huge undertaking when DCL adds a new disembarking ports.
Adding those additional challenges I don’t think they can find a few thousand people every week that are going to cruise and certainly not if they need to jump through additional ropes to get to the ship. They aren’t going to be able to support the costs of staff and ships without that demand

 

[vegs1]

If CDC does extend the ban, could cruise lines just cruise in and out of non-US ports? I would be willing to fly to St. Lucia or somewhere else for embarkation day. St. Lucia goes to phase 2 opening on 08/01.

There are cruises going in Europe. But they don’t want US citizens flying there for good reason. Numbers need to be under control.

Cruise lines don’t want the horrendous publicity they will get if they sail too early and end up with everyone on board sick.

 

[vegs1]

I agree but the virus doesn't care what is essential and what isn't. Regulation by the CDC should be done to help fight Covid, not to just help fight Covid on non-essential industries. Plus cruising is essential to the approx half million cruise industry employees.

No it doesn’t so they are holding up cruises since they can definitely control that. The CDC obviously sees other modes of travel differently.

 

[T & R]

I really get that you want to cruise and are ready...but I think the reality is that thousands of your fellow cruisers are not.

Yes, I'm definitely ready to cruise. As far as the millions of other people who cruise per year, I do not proclaim to know in reality if they are ready or not. Please keep in mind, I am not against a temporary ban on cruising. If a ban on cruising would stop Covid and would end this thing, I would be 100% for it. The thing is, if you do a ban or regulation, it has to span all industries and people equally if it is expected to work. As soon as you start handing out exemptions, the virus containment fails. The virus does not observe exemptions or essential businesses. Exhibit A = No cruising in Florida since March yet we have record high infection in Florida today. The cruise industry only ban is a dismal failure and it's time for the CDC to make tough, not popular choices and focus on other industries than just cruising.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

The thing is, if you do a ban or regulation, it has to span all industries and people equally if it is expected to work.

I wish more people thought like this. Not trying to be political, but I don’t think this has ever happened in the history of this country. A bill to ban plastic straws would still be 200 pages long and filled with thousands of loopholes. Just the world we live in.

 

[gwynne]

Whether the CDC does it or the CLIA or individual companies, I cannot imagine any scenario where ships will be sailing from the US in 2 months. With positivity rates what they are in Florida, what we know about indoor dining and bars, with crew still not allowed to fly in, with international port restrictions, and with growing cases across the county we are nowhere near ready for confined gatherings of thousands over several days of cruising.

I agree.
The epidemiologists generally say we are only in the 2nd inning with covid. Based on that, I'll predict cruising resumes from the US in
May/June 21. (Assuming a vaccine is widely available then.)