Will resale prices go down after Jan 19th?

[LindaYoung]

Just my thought about the resale restriction impact:
I could see it affecting BLT, GFV, CCV, and Poly by $3-5 per point, AKV by maybe $5, BCV, GCV, and BWV not at all (due to their premium location and close expiration date - people who buy there want to only stay there), and it mostly affecting the others.
I anticipate seeing OKW and SSR points going for $5-8 cheaper over the next two years, regardless of the economy. The reason being that the owners of other legacy resorts bought there to stay there, while a large percentage of OKW and SSR purchases were sleep around ones. The tighter the system gets, with less resale buyers being able to book elsewhere, the less appealing the contracts at those two resorts will be, hence the lowering of prices.

I could be way off, and for all we know DVC will continue to get more expensive no matter the outside circumstances, but those moves make the most sense in my mind.

I mostly agree with your analysis. I am wondering why you think BLT and VGF would have a slight price decline. They have great locations and each is very unique. VGF is a small DVC resort and it is the flagship, rated 5 star and having great restaurants and gorgeous decor. BLT is within walking distance to MK so I would think it will remain desirable.

 

[Ben E N]

I mostly agree with your analysis. I am wondering why you think BLT and VGF would have a slight price decline. They have great locations and each is very unique. VGF is a small DVC resort and it is the flagship, rated 5 star and having great restaurants and gorgeous decor. BLT is within walking distance to MK so I would think it will remain desirable.

Just random speculation due to their long contract size. People may project with "but what about in 2045? What will I be able to use it on then?". You're probably right about VGF. That value has only shot up, and it's a smaller resort, meaning many but there just to stay there.
BLT's large size is what may impact its value. Right now some people buy it at sleep around points, due to its moderate resale price and long contract, so that portion of buyers there would less interested in buying there. Not a ton of people, but enough to perhaps depress resale value a bit.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Something obvious I've noticed this week....

The only small contracts that have been sitting around on resale this last week are PVB. Why would that be?

I've seen RIDICULOUS asking prices on some small contracts elsewhere get snatched up within a day or even hours.

 

[glamdring269]

Something obvious I've noticed this week....

The only small contracts that have been sitting around on resale this last week are PVB. Why would that be?

I've seen RIDICULOUS asking prices on some small contracts elsewhere get snatched up within a day or even hours.

Just a theory based on my own recent experience. These contracts are stripped and the buyer's are not motivated to sell. Anything you still see sitting out there is over priced, likely due to the expectation that after the price increase gets announced that someone will panic and buy.

I mean I get it I guess. If you have no 2018 or 2019 points on your contract, have already paid your 2019 MFs, and are in no urgent need for cash from the sale, then there is no reason to be in a rush from the seller's perspective.

It worked out great for us though. Seller didn't even counter so thought about it over the weekend and realized that after Oct 2019 we won't have a chance to go back again until 2021. We already have a contract at BWV that works just fine for us and the only reason to add on was flexibility. No reason to rush on our part either...

 

[Bing Showei]

I think our tendency is to frame value based on what we as owners see. To us, value will drop with the new restrictions, but for a new buyer post-change, it will be a question of how the [then] current resale costs stack up against direct, and is there enough of a difference in products to warrant the price jump to direct.

Buyers who bought after the 2011 change didn’t ask if it’s worth buying now compared to what could’ve been purchased prior to the changes. They asked is it worth buying now vs. direct. The answer was a resounding yes and prices continued to go up.

After the more substantive 2016 changes, buyers continued to weigh the difference based on current prices vs. direct, not what they “could’ve gotten” pre perks changes. The add-on workaround was introduced and resale continued to go up because there was value there over direct.

I suspect the same pattern will follow the 2019 change. The consumer will compare what they get post-change vs direct. New buyers will frame what their options are presently. If a future resort proves a must-own (in the same mould as BCV, VGF, AKV-Club/Value etc) people will buy resale Riviera/Rehab/etc. to add to their collection. “Buy where you want to stay” will take on a more literal meaning.

As long as Disney continues raising direct prices for the L14 resorts, I imagine resale prices will continue to go up, as those two options will be all the buyer will have to choose from.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Just random speculation due to their long contract size. People may project with "but what about in 2045? What will I be able to use it on then?". You're probably right about VGF. That value has only shot up, and it's a smaller resort, meaning many but there just to stay there.
BLT's large size is what may impact its value. Right now some people buy it at sleep around points, due to its moderate resale price and long contract, so that portion of buyers there would less interested in buying there. Not a ton of people, but enough to perhaps depress resale value a bit.

BLT really isn't a large resort. I would not expect it's resale to change any more than VGF's or any other resort actually.

Something obvious I've noticed this week....

The only small contracts that have been sitting around on resale this last week are PVB. Why would that be?

I've seen RIDICULOUS asking prices on some small contracts elsewhere get snatched up within a day or even hours.

Could be a number of things - more small contracts written up at PVB so there's been enough supply of them (they were allowing new buyers to get in on 50 points!) and it's the newest that is hitting the mark where people who bought during their pixie dust moment are realizing it wasn't what they expected or wanted for whatever reason. Also small contracts don't go quite as far at PVB - some seasons you couldn't even get 2 nights in the lakeview studio with a 50 point contract - unless you have a real plan for it I'd guess that most people need a few more points. And same thing that DVC ran into selling - it's only studios. If you want the 1 or 2BR options you will be trading somewhere at 7 months. But if you're looking for studios only it has a good set up.

 

[Ben E N]

BLT really isn't a large resort. I would not expect it's resale to change any more than VGF's or any other resort actually.

BLT has 5.7 million points to VGF's 2.5 million. Also, BLT used to how low dues, so it was considered to be a good value. With those rising dues, people may be more likely to want to sell out of it.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

BLT has 5.7 million points to VGF's 2.5 million. Also, BLT used to how low dues, so it was considered to be a good value. With those rising dues, people may be more likely to want to sell out of it.

You have to look at point requirements, number of villas etc. BLT is still the most economical monorail resort. That will be appealing. And it's the only resort walkable to MK. Also appealing. Nothing is changing any intrinsic values of the existing resorts which is why I'd feel there won't be a sudden change to any of them and their relationship to each other. We all will have different valuations applied of course - it's an evaluation all of us do to determine where to buy. I just disagree that anything is intrinsically changing with BLT that means it will drop in value when others don't. It's middle of the pack in size of resorts at WDW although yes, large than VGF. For some that will be a reason to buy there (easier to book than VGF) and for others a reason to feel they don't have to own there (easier to book at 7 months).

 

[Ben E N]

You have to look at point requirements, number of villas etc. BLT is still the most economical monorail resort. That will be appealing. And it's the only resort walkable to MK. Also appealing. Nothing is changing any intrinsic values of the existing resorts which is why I'd feel there won't be a sudden change to any of them and their relationship to each other. We all will have different valuations applied of course - it's an evaluation all of us do to determine where to buy. I just disagree that anything is intrinsically changing with BLT that means it will drop in value when others don't. It's middle of the pack in size of resorts at WDW although yes, large than VGF. For some that will be a reason to buy there (easier to book than VGF) and for others a reason to feel they don't have to own there (easier to book at 7 months).

Oh I own there and love it. When I stayed at CCV and went to BLT for fireworks watching, I felt like I was at home. I even love the studios there. And I am not an economist, it just makes sense to me that more people want to sell from there than at VGF just due to size. There will also be less "sleep around" buyers for there. People who buy at VGF are paying a premium, I'm assuming to mostly stay there. There is a larger selection of BLT buyers who do so with the intention of also staying elsewhere. With that sort of buyer not being interested as much in buying resale, it may affect those prices.

 

[deerh]

I doubt it at all! With dvc announcing price increases for BWV- from $171/point to $190/point, and BCV going up $40/point to $225/point direct from Disney, I think resale will go up in the "14 resorts" BIG TIME!! Now, maybe for 1,2,3 years or more it will! Now, closer to 2042, it will not of course. But, that is my take on it. So, for the next 2-3 years (until SWL dies down-if that ever happens)resorts will for sure go up.....

 

[Chuckdlc]

Even if the resale prices go down (list price wise) how do you think Disney will approach exercising ROFR? By that I mean, both the seller and the potential buyer may think the membership is worth less than it was prior to 1/19/19 but Disney may just see that as an opportunity to scoop up points even cheaper, no?

 

[DougEMG]

You have to look at point requirements, number of villas etc. BLT is still the most economical monorail resort. That will be appealing. And it's the only resort walkable to MK. Also appealing. Nothing is changing any intrinsic values of the existing resorts which is why I'd feel there won't be a sudden change to any of them and their relationship to each other. We all will have different valuations applied of course - it's an evaluation all of us do to determine where to buy. I just disagree that anything is intrinsically changing with BLT that means it will drop in value when others don't. It's middle of the pack in size of resorts at WDW although yes, large than VGF. For some that will be a reason to buy there (easier to book than VGF) and for others a reason to feel they don't have to own there (easier to book at 7 months).

I just bought a BLT contract, the reason I value that contract along with my BWV contract so highly is the ability to walk to a park. You just can't beat walking to a park over taking a bus, boat, monorail or gondola; especially when it is closing time and there are hundreds++ people all trying to catch the same thing.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I just bought a BLT contract, the reason I value that contract along with my BWV contract so highly is the ability to walk to a park. You just can't beat walking to a park over taking a bus, boat, monorail or gondola; especially when it is closing time and there are hundreds++ people all trying to catch the same thing.

This is why I like to stay at VGF. I can take the monorail or a wonderful boat ride over or back from MK.

 

[Bing Showei]

This is why I like to stay at VGF. I can take the monorail or a wonderful boat ride over or back from MK.

Agreed. But if they had finished that footpath to MK, that would be my way home after HEA every time; monorail MK—>VGF... agoraphobia inducing.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Agreed. But if they had finished that footpath to MK, that would be my way home after HEA every time; monorail MK—>VGF... agoraphobia inducing.

The monorail always smells terrible. If I'm on for more than 10 minutes I start to feel sick. The feeling passes fairly quickly after getting off, but still...

 

[Jack_Sparrow_NJ]

The monorail always smells terrible. If I'm on for more than 10 minutes I start to feel sick. The feeling passes fairly quickly after getting off, but still...

I never noticed the smell but then again I ride the NYC subway

 

[kboo]

Agreed. But if they had finished that footpath to MK, that would be my way home after HEA every time; monorail MK—>VGF... agoraphobia inducing.

Try the boats! They are underrated. We have rarely had to wait for the next boat. And you always get a seat. (true, it's a pain with a stroller, but stroller days aren't forever.)

I never noticed the smell but then again I ride the NYC subway

Me too.

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

Try the boats! They are underrated. We have rarely had to wait for the next boat. And you always get a seat. (true, it's a pain with a stroller, but stroller days aren't forever.)


Me too.

We love the boats to GFV now that our stroller days are over! The only time we had to wait for a boat was when leaving after the fireworks..

 

[Mikey15]

The monorail always smells terrible. If I'm on for more than 10 minutes I start to feel sick. The feeling passes fairly quickly after getting off, but still...

I thought it was just me! Smelled faintly like manure, kind of like a horse stable, the last couple times I rode it.

 

[Wakey]

Legacy 14 are bound to rise in price, if the economy does well.
Simple supply and demand.
Assuming the economy continues to do well, DVC will continue to attract more customers. There’s obviously more customers now, with Copper Creek points sold, than there were when Poly was on sale and so on.
There’s also more customers buying resale. Consider the amount of resale companies and contracts on sale, compared to even 5 years ago.
So assuming the demand for resale also continues to rise like it always has done, then which contracts do the extra customers want? They want the original 14, unless Riviera is hitting the market cheaply and not being ROFRd they don’t want that.
Addtionally these legacy resorts are being price manipulated by DVC, pushing the cost higher than demand v supply alone.
I think we will see the DVC 1 resorts gaining in price significantly, at least until there’s an economic downturn, then we could see quite a correction.