Why wait times have gotten crazy

[MrInfinity]

Are we using averages, or the moment right now?

Whichever you prefer. I just dont agree that the wait for Buzz is now an hour. It's only 35 min right now, and this is the peak of the day. So if you want to use the average, it's probly around 30 min. Right now, 35, maybe it'll peak around 40. But it's hard to say "the wait for Buzz is 60 min in the post-FP+ era" when it doesn't get up to 60 min at all. Even checking again now, it has dropped back to 30. It was 35 when I checked a half-hour ago.

 

[wisblue]

I think what you are missing is the increase in second tier attractions. Sure you may save an avg of 10 mins on Space Mountain, but see a second tier example below:

Buzz Lightyear Say it accommodates 20,000 riders. In FP- days:
4,000 people go FP- in 10 min (40,000 minutes)
16,000 people go Standby in 30 min (480000 minutes)
Average wait time: 26 min

Now SB and FP+ lines are longer? Ok:
16,000 people go FP+ in 20 min (320000 minutes)
4,000 people go Standby in 60 min (240000 minutes)
Average wait time: 28 minutes

So, for the secondary attractions, you are waiting longer. Multiply that by 5 or 6 secondary attractions, and you are waiting about the same, or longer than you were before. And even if you break even, you gave up flexibility to break even.
I don't think FP + is going anywhere, so we will have to learn to accept it in one way or another. I just don't buy that it is saving me any time. Because it isnt. As I said previously, its a big shiny box filled with nothing. It is just an illusion.

While I agree with the method for the analysis, I question your numbers.

First, you are assuming that only 20% of riders previously rode with FP. I don't know where you are getting that. I also question whether the average wait in the FP line is now 20 minutes. I know that hasn't been our experience (though I haven't been to WDW since May). I actually think 10 minutes is, if anything, on the high side, but 10 is probably closer than 20. Are you aware of any study that has concluded that the average FP wait times have increased this much?

Most importantly, though, you are assuming that the average wait in standby for the ride has gone from 30 minutes to 60. I haven't seen any study that says that the average standby line at Buzz has gone up this much. The study easywdw did last year said the median wait had gone from 15 to 20 minutes. That study did cover the first 65 days of 2013 and 2014 which would be a lower than average attendance period.

The Touring Plans study, which covered February 1 through June 19 (thereby including the busy spring break and early summer), and made an adjustment to reflect increase in attendance, found that the average wait at Buzz was DOWN 2 minutes from the same periods in 2012 and 2013. We'll see what Touring Plans has to say about waits at Buzz and other MK attractions when they come out with their latest report in the next few days. But I will bet my bottom dollar that they won't be reporting an average standby wait time of 60 minutes, or anything close to that.

I highlighted the three sentences above, because I don't think anyone is saying that FP+ is saving YOU, or any particular person, any time. The issue is how it affects guests as a whole. It is inevitable that any way of handling rides is going to affect some people differently than others, depending on how they tour and how efficient they are at using their FPs and avoiding the long lines.

 

[dlavender]

Whichever you prefer. I just dont agree that the wait for Buzz is now an hour. It's only 35 min right now, and this is the peak of the day. So if you want to use the average, it's probly around 30 min. Right now, 35, maybe it'll peak around 40. But it's hard to say "the wait for Buzz is 60 min in the post-FP+ era" when it doesn't get up to 60 min at all. Even checking again now, it has dropped back to 30. It was 35 when I checked a half-hour ago.

Using the moderate to high cheat sheet form easywdw, you will see that the ride, does, in fact maintain a 60 min wait from 1-3....

http://www.easywdw.com/cheatsheets/mk_cheatsheet_v3.pdf

First, you are assuming that only 20% of riders previously rode with FP. I don't know where you are getting that. I also question whether the average wait in the FP line is now 20 minutes. I know that hasn't been our experience (though I haven't been to WDW since May). I actually think 10 minutes is, if anything, on the high side, but 10 is probably closer than 20. Are you aware of any study that has concluded that the average FP wait times have increased this much?

For this, I was just using Mr. Infinity's assertion....

Most importantly, though, you are assuming that the average wait in standby for the ride has gone from 30 minutes to 60. I haven't seen any study that says that the average standby line at Buzz has gone up this much. The study easywdw did last year said the median wait had gone from 15 to 20 minutes. That study did cover the first 65 days of 2013 and 2014 which would be a lower than average attendance period.

No, there are no hard numbers yet for this year (obviously since the year isn't over), or for last year. So you are correct, in my mind I am using a moderate to high crowd level around 2 PM for my baseline.

The Touring Plans study, which covered February 1 through June 19 (thereby including the busy spring break and early summer), and made an adjustment to reflect increase in attendance, found that the average wait at Buzz was DOWN 2 minutes from the same periods in 2012 and 2013. We'll see what Touring Plans has to say about waits at Buzz and other MK attractions when they come out with their latest report in the next few days. But I will bet my bottom dollar that they won't be reporting an average standby wait time of 60 minutes, or anything close to that.

Not sure about 2012-2013, only concerned with present time. Yes, we will have to wait and see..

I highlighted the three sentences above, because I don't think anyone is saying that FP+ is saving YOU, or any particular person, any time. The issue is how it affects guests as a whole. It is inevitable that any way of handling rides is going to affect some people differently than others, depending on how they tour and how efficient they are at using their FPs and avoiding the long lines.

I'm pretty sure there are a few people on here saying it will save time...just have to read through...

 

[mesaboy2]

All this for between $1 and $2 billion. Billion.

To quote Patrick, my chief flight attendant today: "Nice work, pal!"

 

[dlavender]

Whichever you prefer. I just dont agree that the wait for Buzz is now an hour. It's only 35 min right now, and this is the peak of the day. So if you want to use the average, it's probly around 30 min. Right now, 35, maybe it'll peak around 40. But it's hard to say "the wait for Buzz is 60 min in the post-FP+ era" when it doesn't get up to 60 min at all. Even checking again now, it has dropped back to 30. It was 35 when I checked a half-hour ago.

Since we can't get real time wait info from 2014, I don't think it would be a very productive exercise...

 

[dlavender]

Whichever you prefer. I just dont agree that the wait for Buzz is now an hour. It's only 35 min right now, and this is the peak of the day. So if you want to use the average, it's probly around 30 min. Right now, 35, maybe it'll peak around 40. But it's hard to say "the wait for Buzz is 60 min in the post-FP+ era" when it doesn't get up to 60 min at all. Even checking again now, it has dropped back to 30. It was 35 when I checked a half-hour ago.

BTW its up to 45...on a level 5 day...

 

[MrInfinity]

Using the moderate to high cheat sheet form easywdw, you will see that the ride, does, in fact maintain a 60 min wait from 1-3....
http://www.easywdw.com/cheatsheets/mk_cheatsheet_v3.pdf

Are you using the same sheet as me?
Party... 5 10 20 30 40 40 30 30 25 20 10 Avg = 23
Low... 5 10 20 30 40 40 30 30 25 20 15 10 Avg = 23
Mod... 5 15 30 30 40 40 30 40 40 30 30 20 20 15 10 Avg = 26
Heavy... 10 15 40 45 60 60 45 45 45 45 40 30 25 15 10 10 Avg = 34

So according to that, the Buzz ride will only peak out at 60 min, on a few days of the year that are "Heavy" and at that, only for a couple hours. Yet you conclude that the wait for Buzz for most guests is now an hour? You put that in your calculations for all guests as the norm.
The average is around 30 minutes, standby, like I said. And well under 30 on all but "Heavy" days where it's barely above 30. The data you linked to supports my position, not yours. Even right now it is a moderate-high time, and the wait is peaking out at 45 min, not 60 min, and we're past the peak for the day. This tells us today is between Mod and Heavy, which makes sense.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

All this for between $1 and $2 billion dollars. Billion.

To quote Patrick, my chief flight attendant today: "Nice work, pal!"

I keep being told that was a bargain for Disney because now they can track where I walk in the park. I'm not sure how much Birbaum spends on their data collection but I'm guessing it's substantially less and they seem to have a pretty good handle on traffic patterns.

 

[dlavender]

Are you using the same sheet as me?
Party... 5 10 20 30 40 40 30 30 25 20 10 Avg = 23
Low... 5 10 20 30 40 40 30 30 25 20 15 10 Avg = 23
Mod... 5 15 30 30 40 40 30 40 40 30 30 20 20 15 10 Avg = 26
Heavy... 10 15 40 45 60 60 45 45 45 45 40 30 25 15 10 10 Avg = 34

So according to that, the Buzz ride will only peak out at 60 min, on a few days of the year that are "Heavy" and at that, only for a couple hours. Yet you conclude that the wait for Buzz for most guests is now an hour? You put that in your calculations for all guests as the norm.
The average is around 30 minutes, standby, like I said. And well under 30 on all but "Heavy" days where it's barely above 30. The data you linked to supports my position, not yours. Even right now it is a moderate-high time, and the wait is peaking out at 45 min, not 60 min, and we're past the peak for the day. This tells us today is between Mod and Heavy, which makes sense.

Yes. For one to show that the ride does hit 60....

For two, when thinking about the advantages of any FP system, I look at when someone would use them, hence the 1-3 time frame on a busy day...who uses a FP at 10 AM? I'm looking at the peak times vs similar times from the previous year.

Did you really say the "few" heavy days? There were about 10-15 days this month that were rated 10's!! There are more than a few.....some would say more than low-mod days....

Edit to show heavy is 7+, not 10...

 

[Jennytoon]

OK, I will bite.

According to Touring Plans:

-- In August 2013, 52 minutes average wait for Buzz Lightyear was a 9. For Space Mountain 103 minutes was a 9.
-- In August 2015, 44 minutes average wait for Buzz Lightyear was a 9. For Space Mountain 73 minutes was a 9.

In both cases, the Buzz window is tight (i.e. only a few minutes difference, such as 44 to 41, corresponds to a different crowd level on the attraction). The Space Mountain Window appears wider. So while consideration might be made for fencepost errors as well as the fact that the reference scale has changed between 2013 and 2015, I would accept a calculation using the method in the previous posts that used these numbers for standby.

I do think the FP- and FP+ wait times are out of nowhere and don't reflect reality. If I was doing that calculation, I would use 5 minutes as the FP wait time in both cases, as I personally feel that represents the norm from my experience and I'm not aware of any source of reliable data.

ETA: I am aware that one could suss out a potential FP wait time figure (per Touring Plans which was the source of the other numbers, so consistency) by picking a crowd level 9 day, making a custom touring plan, fixing an attraction to a particular start time, and then applying a FP to it. The wait time should then reflect the expected wait with FP. However, it's not clear to me how the expected FP wait time is calculated (is it different for each attraction, does it represent a fixed figure overall, a fixed figure that floats with time of day, what?) thus I don't consider it as reliable as the numbers from the attraction crowd calendars.

 

[dlavender]

Buzz is at 50.....uh oh...

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Buzz is at 50.....uh oh...

It is interesting to be "past peak" time and the wait keeps getting higher.

 

[MrInfinity]

Buzz is at 50.....uh oh...

And what will the average for the day turn out to be? (hint: it's around 30 min if you go by the numbers you quoted) And what did most guests actually wait? (the 4:1 guests who went by FastPass). 15 min, by FastPass? I don't see why this is so difficult. Disney has taken the concept of just-in-time manufacturing and applied it to rides. We all surmised when FP+ first broke, that some day rides would go to reservation-only, and at this point, we're about 80% there. Only 20% of the total ridership of a ride is standby any more. Everyone else is showing up at their time, riding quick, and moving on.

 

[dlavender]

ut it's hard to say "the wait for Buzz is 60 min in the post-FP+ era" when it doesn't get up to 60 min at all

Just pointing out that it does, in fact, get a lot higher than you recall...

 

[IndyRnRfan]

Just pointing out that it does, in fact, get a lot higher than you recall...

We were there this summer and Buzz light year was always pushing 60+ minutes most of the afternoon into the evening when we were in that park. I want to say I recall it being 90 minutes one of the days because I remember telling my wife I've never seen this ride that long for standby.

 

[MrInfinity]

Just pointing out that it does, in fact, get a lot higher than you recall...

You tried to argue that the wait for Buzz is 60 min. You multiplied that number by ALL guests riding standby for the day, as if all guests would incur that wait. It clearly has not been that today. The wait has hit 50 min peak, and was at 30 most of the day, and was 10 earlier on. The average has been under 30 so far. Just sayin. I get that you're now trying to say essentially you realize the wait is not 60 min for everyone, although rides may peak up to this at select times on heavy days. I accept that.

I do think the FP- and FP+ wait times are out of nowhere and don't reflect reality.

Exactly. What matters now is not what the standby wait time is, because so few of the riders are actually waiting out the standby wait. I was amazed that TP found 80% of guests riding things by FP+. What matters nowadays is what people are waiting in the FastPass lane. Are they waiting less in the FP lane than they used to in the standby lane. This is what Disney envisioned for FP+! Instead of waiting in line, you show up, ride, and move on. No waiting. Almost all reservation with a small percentage available for standby. Even more amazing to me is that with such a small standby allocation, the standby times you'd think would be through the roof, but they're not. Typical Buzz waits were 30 min in the past (peaking at 60) and today they're 30 min typical, peaking at 60.

 

[mesaboy2]

Exactly. What matters now is not what the standby wait time is, because so few of the riders are actually waiting out the standby wait. I was amazed that TP found 80% of guests riding things by FP+. What matters nowadays is what people are waiting in the FastPass lane. Are they waiting less in the FP lane than they used to in the standby lane. This is what Disney envisioned for FP+! Instead of waiting in line, you show up, ride, and move on. No waiting. Almost all reservation with a small percentage available for standby. Even more amazing to me is that with such a small standby allocation, the standby times you'd think would be through the roof, but they're not. Typical Buzz waits were 30 min in the past (peaking at 60) and today they're 30 min typical, peaking at 60.

For three attractions. Generally speaking, anything available after those isn't worth the trouble of a FP anyway.

And the theme park that takes this attitude, in my opinion, has lost its way.

 

[wisblue]

Yes. For one to show that the ride does hit 60....

For two, when thinking about the advantages of any FP system, I look at when someone would use them, hence the 1-3 time frame on a busy day...who uses a FP at 10 AM? I'm looking at the peak times vs similar times from the previous year.

Did you really say the "few" heavy days? There were about 10-15 days this month that were rated 10's!! There are more than a few.....some would say more than low-mod days....

Edit to show heavy is 7+, not 10...

Whether or not the posted wait time at Buzz ever hits 60 minutes is not the point. If you are trying to calculate the average wait time for 4000 guests who ride standby in a day, they obviously aren't all doing it when the wait time is at its peak. Some may be waiting 60 minutes, but most of them are waiting less than that.

Also, if you want to do an honest comparison, to calculate the average standby wait, you would have to use an equivalent time from a cheat sheet for heavy crowds from before FP+ was in place. Do you have that, or is that 30 minutes you used just a guess?

 

[3DisneyFanz]

You tried to argue that the wait for Buzz is 60 min. You multiplied that number by ALL guests riding standby for the day, as if all guests would incur that wait. It clearly has not been that today. The wait has hit 50 min peak, and was at 30 most of the day, and was 10 earlier on. The average has been under 30 so far. Just sayin. I get that you're now trying to say essentially you realize the wait is not 60 min for everyone, although rides may peak up to this at select times on heavy days. I accept that.



Exactly. What matters now is not what the standby wait time is, because so few of the riders are actually waiting out the standby wait. I was amazed that TP found 80% of guests riding things by FP+. What matters nowadays is what people are waiting in the FastPass lane. Are they waiting less in the FP lane than they used to in the standby lane. This is what Disney envisioned for FP+! Instead of waiting in line, you show up, ride, and move on. No waiting. Almost all reservation with a small percentage available for standby. Even more amazing to me is that with such a small standby allocation, the standby times you'd think would be through the roof, but they're not. Typical Buzz waits were 30 min in the past (peaking at 60) and today they're 30 min typical, peaking at 60.

All you're doing is changing the queue the person is waiting in. Maybe someone who rode Buzz previously at 30 min SB not does FP and spends 15 min in line but now they go ride JC in SB at 35 min so they've lost whatever they gained at Buzz. You're going to feel the increase somewhere is you actually want to do the attractions.

 

[dlavender]

We were there this summer and Buzz light year was always pushing 60+ minutes most of the afternoon into the evening when we were in that park. I want to say I recall it being 90 minutes one of the days because I remember telling my wife I've never seen this ride that long for standby.

We were there 10/10, and saw it hit 70 around 1:30. This is probably why I picked it out for call out purposes.