Why wait times have gotten crazy

[Hudson Hornet]

I was at MK yesterday and it was really crowded. For a random Monday in late October that sounds insane to me. Epcot on the other hand wasn't too bad. We hopped from MK to Epcot at around 3 and Epcot was very manageable. I was expecting MK to be more crowded due to morning EMH but it was really crowded.

The non party days are insane this time of the year.

 

[alopez926]

The non party days are insane this time of the year.

Just curious as I have never gone in November before. Are non-party nights always this insane or has the recent insanity (crowd level 9. 10 days) just started this year?

 

[epcotty]

Getting back to the main topic, have you found out what's causing the wait times to be so high?

 

[Happy_2_B]

Getting back to the main topic, have you found out what's causing the wait times to be so high?

Not going to speak for Len, as he may pop in here to comment. With that said, I am involved in another thread over at touringplans.com- and based upon his comments over there, Len's new blog should be out today or tomorrow with some new information. Don't know if their research is completely done, but quite a bit of additional research seems to be done. Guess we will find out how much they have accomplished in the last few days once it is posted. I just checked before coming over here and it wasn't up yet- would guess that someone will chime in here once they see it has posted since this thread was originally started based upon his comments about a week ago regarding this topic.

 

[cruisingtwins]

They ARE doing something like this. In 2012, all FastPasses were equal. Onsite, Offsite. Today, onsite gets dibbs at 60 days, offsite gets them at 30. Disney has essentially taken away that equal chance of getting the most desired FastPasses, from offsite guests. Some will move to onsite, others will stop going altogether. So while they haven't taken away FastPass altogether from offsiters, they certainly have taken away the best FastPasses from them.

If by best you mean SDMT and A&E that's kind of sad.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Getting back to the main topic, have you found out what's causing the wait times to be so high?

Obviously it's the tremendous attendance growth. There's an extra 1000 people a day coming into the parks so they've made wait times double.

 

[havoc315]

1. No it doesn't (not in a measurable way)
2. I'm not arbitrarily choosing current lines ( the title of this thread, I believe, is
Why wait times have gotten crazy

Furthermore, I will concede to allowing the second half of dumbo to be purchased, as well as the 3rd Soarin theater. That will take people out of the regular SB lane, improving the experience for the other two theaters. No objection there. It would still lower the waits from 60 to 50, for the other two, so, great move, IMO.

Yes, no objection if they build new stuff. That's really what everyone is clamoring for. Please, build new stuff...The waits will take care of themselves at that point. You won't have to worry about trying to pay your way to the front, if they built more stuff....

I could break down just how measurable it is.

But putting that aside... Hard to calculate exact affect on dumbo and Soarin. I suspect it would cause an increase of wait times at the Dumbo standby -- returning to the types of waits that were previously when there was only 1 spinner.

The Soarin standby line would indeed shrink, if you totally got rid of FP for those 2 theaters. So a purchased premium FP for the 3rd theater, and the other 2 theaters standby only. But if you kept the regular FP system for those 2 theaters, then I don't think you'd see a meaningful reduction in wait times.

But let's just continue your now stated principle. Devote half of capacity to premium extra purchased FPs, and half to base prices standby. Whether you only apply this principle to newly built stuff or established stuff just impacts your preference, not a principle.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

Sure they do..... But you'd have to rob Peter to pay Paul.
For example:

Off site guests -- limited to a maximum of 2 same-day fast passes.

On site value/mod- 3 FPs, booked up to 30 days in advance.

Deluxe guests-- 4 FPs, booked up to 60 days in advance.

Premium deluxe guests/VIPs, etc-- 5 FPs, up to 60 days in advance.

They could offer FP+ to Deluxe only for anything "new", (leaving the current selections as is). The other choice would be SB.

ROL, Avatar, Soarin 2, TSM 2, Frozen, TSM Land, Star Wars Land.

 

[dlavender]

I could break down just how measurable it is.

But putting that aside... Hard to calculate exact affect on dumbo and Soarin. I suspect it would cause an increase of wait times at the Dumbo standby -- returning to the types of waits that were previously when there was only 1 spinner.

The Soarin standby line would indeed shrink, if you totally got rid of FP for those 2 theaters. So a purchased premium FP for the 3rd theater, and the other 2 theaters standby only. But if you kept the regular FP system for those 2 theaters, then I don't think you'd see a meaningful reduction in wait times.

But let's just continue your now stated principle. Devote half of capacity to premium extra purchased FPs, and half to base prices standby. Whether you only apply this principle to newly built stuff or established stuff just impacts your preference, not a principle.

No, principle is leaving the current experience unhindered by a "new" experience. Building duplicate rides for purchase would in no way hinder the current experience. (any by "new" experience, I am obviously referring to a pay for play system....)

Principle intact....

 

[Angel Ariel]

Just curious as I have never gone in November before. Are non-party nights always this insane or has the recent insanity (crowd level 9. 10 days) just started this year?

While we found non-party days to be more crowded than party days on our 2013 trip, in our personal experience, we did not see level 9 or 10 crowds. On the most crowded non-party day of that 2013 trip, TP has the crowd level as a 6. That was a Monday after a party, and there were evening EMH that night.

The MK crowd levels the entire week of that trip were (in order): 2, 1 (party day), 2 (party day), 4 (Saturday), 3 (party day), 6, 5

So, *in our experience*, yes 9-10 level crowds on non-party days would be something new to us.

 

[ArwenMarie]

They ARE doing something like this. In 2012, all FastPasses were equal. Onsite, Offsite. Today, onsite gets dibbs at 60 days, offsite gets them at 30. Disney has essentially taken away that equal chance of getting the most desired FastPasses, from offsite guests. Some will move to onsite, others will stop going altogether. So while they haven't taken away FastPass altogether from offsiters, they certainly have taken away the best FastPasses from them.

You are absolutely right, they did lower the booking day for offsite (whether regular tickets or local APs). That was a huge takeaway when it happened, although to be expected as it was part of the testing period.

I hold the opinion that what we have now though in terms of the FP system is what is going to stick around, barring any big changes in the future like when they open new lands.

 

[ArwenMarie]

They could offer FP+ to Deluxe only for anything "new", (leaving the current selections as is). The other choice would be SB.

ROL, Avatar, Soarin 2, TSM 2, Frozen, TSM Land, Star Wars Land.

The booking windows already make sure offsite can't get some FPs, or have a very hard time anyway (like Anna and Elsa).

 

[ArwenMarie]

Not going to speak for Len, as he may pop in here to comment. With that said, I am involved in another thread over at touringplans.com- and based upon his comments over there, Len's new blog should be out today or tomorrow with some new information. Don't know if their research is completely done, but quite a bit of additional research seems to be done. Guess we will find out how much they have accomplished in the last few days once it is posted. I just checked before coming over here and it wasn't up yet- would guess that someone will chime in here once they see it has posted since this thread was originally started based upon his comments about a week ago regarding this topic.

Cool let us know when he posts it, I don't check regularly over there.

 

[Hudson Hornet]

Just curious as I have never gone in November before. Are non-party nights always this insane or has the recent insanity (crowd level 9. 10 days) just started this year?

It's been the trend over the last few years as they have increased the number of party nights. It seems like people who are not attending the party avoid MK on party days because they have to leave a little early, and crowd into the park on non party days instead.

 

[hoosll]

I would be interested in whether folks think Rope Drop crowds are bigger, smaller or the same since FP+.

Seems like people are saying that if you want to max your rides, get there at RD. If you want to sleep in and just use FPs, skip RD. Since there are so many who say on vacation it's about relaxing, then they should be sleeping in. Or, has the rationing of rides by FP+, raised the number of folks who appear at RD?

Just asking for anecdotal observations.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I really think lines would move better accross the board by eliminating FP but you already have people so accepting of the illusion of time savings that you'd never get away with repairing the problems you created with your fixes.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I would be interested in whether folks think Rope Drop crowds are bigger, smaller or the same since FP+.

Seems like people are saying that if you want to max your rides, get there at RD. If you want to sleep in and just use FPs, skip RD. Since there are so many who say on vacation it's about relaxing, then they should be sleeping in. Or, has the rationing of rides by FP+, raised the number of folks who appear at RD?

Just asking for anecdotal observations.

Depends on where. I think crowds at MK around 7dmt and A&E are much worse because of FP+ but it's made moving through other areas so much easier.

In EPCOT I think it's gotten worse. The masses trying to get to the other Tier 1 (and I don't mean Living with the Land) they couldn't get is crazy.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

The booking windows already make sure offsite can't get some FPs, or have a very hard time anyway (like Anna and Elsa).

That would stay the same as current (other than A&E is a passing fad), this would be only for "new" additions.

 

[mjallemand]

The only real reason I don't care for Fastpass+ is that I have my times set up throughout the day to facilitate walking through the park, though in reality the best use is probably get get three early ones as close together as possible so you can spring for a 4th and 5th one as soon as possible.

It'd be nice if they up'd the limit of fastpasses over three per day, but that's a pie in the sky request for sure.

 

[mjallemand]

During my trip (1st week of October 2015) the posted wait times often seemed inflated. I saw posted wait times of 20 minutes on rides I got on in 10. I never waited more than 25 min for a ride, and that one had a posted wait time of 40. Peter Pan had a posted time of 70 min and we were on in 20. One ride has a posted time of 20 and it was a walk-on. So who knows.

Y'know, that's a good point as well. How accurate are Disney's posted wait times on average, and how often are they updated?