Why is Disney ROFR mainly BCV?

[mjc2003]

The clause about SAB is most likely included for the same reason TOTW lounge and the Attic were specifically mentioned in POS contracts as being excluded from the DVC Villas. If Disney ever signifcantly changes/alters or even decides to close SAB, they do not want members to have any leg to stand on that it was part of the resort and Disney violated the POS and removed an amnenity. I doubt you will ever see SAB taken away from BCV owners unless they significantly enlarged the DVC portion of the resort and SAB just couldn't handle it.

As for the point availability, that goes to my theory that Disney has begun purchasing the contracts to stock up on the points for whatever secret plans they might have. There are other small resorts that they could scoop up some points from, but the BCV ROFR's are much more deliberate.....

Agreed on all fronts. Even if the are to expand, however, SAB would continue to big a big delineation from other resorts. For example, if they double the number of Villas and take away SAB, doesn't it essentially become BWV? More likely they would expand on the number of units, and expand SAB, or build a separate SAB type area specifically for the villas? I'm curious, what are your theories on these secret plans? I agree that it seems like there is a motive. I feel like it could be something as simple as them controlling the supply/demand as BCV simply b/c they can. But I respect other (and your) opinions that there could be more than that....

Obviously as a guy buying in, I'd have mixed feelings about expansion. Could it be that they are going to just offer contract extensions, and this will make BCV in more demand?

 

[thepops]

I also think we have to keep in mind while BCV has become somewhat of a phenomenon here on the DIS and is highly raved about, I don't think a normal walk in buyer is really looking at it. Most contracts you hear about are add on's and not high point ones to justify the number of points they have ROFR'd.

So, to summarize, I think there is a plan being developed for the resort....the question is just what is that plan?

Oh come ON! There are lots of DISers at WDW now. Can't ANYONE find a bus driver to find out what the plan is?

 

[LIFERBABE]

I posted this in another thread, but it may apply to BCV. Hilton has been buying up their timeshare resales in Cabo and converting the villas to cash rooms. They have stopped updating the villas and have offered owners buy outs. From what I read this is still a very nice property to exchange into, just dated but you receive all the amenities of a Hilton guest. Many celebs stay at this resort in Cabo.

BCV is prime property and maybe they feel they can get even more money for it the 2nd time around.

Wow! Cant believe someone tried to get $53 a point past ROFR. It was a big contract, but the seller and the buyer must not have wanted it.

 

[mjc2003]

I posted this in another thread, but it may apply to BCV. Hilton has been buying up their timeshare resales in Cabo and converting the villas to cash rooms. They have stopped updating the villas and have offered owners buy outs. From what I read this is still a very nice property to exchange into, just dated but you receive all the amenities of a Hilton guest. Many celebs stay at this resort in Cabo.

BCV is prime property and maybe they feel they can get even more money for it the 2nd time around.

There could be some truth to this. We are in ROFR now, we are not currently members. The past two Novembers we have stayed in the BC Villas. Last year we had a 1 bedroom, but I was coming off back surgery and couldn't stomach sleeping on a pullout for 10 nights. About 10-14 days before our trip, around the end of Oct, I called and asked for a 2 bedroom. This was during the end of W&F. Not only did they have the 2 BR available, but they readily offered me 40% off.

Now from what I read, the BCV's for members are booked up probably already for W&F. So if members are so eager to travel during that time, and are wait listed for rooms, why are they offering me as a cash customer a 2 BR with just 2 weeks notice?

We also had friends who were at the Polynesian and came to visit us. Their kids loved the pool so much that they too switched, mid-trip, and got a 1 BR villa.

How many rooms are dedicated to members? B/C everything I read is that people are booking every week of W&F 11 months out, but there were villas aplenty for us at that time.

 

[kapeman]

Now from what I read, the BCV's for members are booked up probably already for W&F. So if members are so eager to travel during that time, and are wait listed for rooms, why are they offering me as a cash customer a 2 BR with just 2 weeks notice?

How many rooms are dedicated to members? B/C everything I read is that people are booking every week of W&F 11 months out, but there were villas aplenty for us at that time.

There are different pools of inventory, the DVC points inventory and the cash/breakage inventory.

Also, at 60 days, unbooked points are moved into the Cash/breakage pool.

Discussions here:

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=39750916

and here:

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=39336845#post39336845

 

[TisBit]

Agreed on all fronts. Even if the are to expand, however, SAB would continue to big a big delineation from other resorts. For example, if they double the number of Villas and take away SAB, doesn't it essentially become BWV? More likely they would expand on the number of units, and expand SAB, or build a separate SAB type area specifically for the villas? I'm curious, what are your theories on these secret plans? I agree that it seems like there is a motive. I feel like it could be something as simple as them controlling the supply/demand as BCV simply b/c they can. But I respect other (and your) opinions that there could be more than that....

Obviously as a guy buying in, I'd have mixed feelings about expansion. Could it be that they are going to just offer contract extensions, and this will make BCV in more demand?

I have no insider information, but my best guess....and extension of the contract. As others have said, they extended OKW and there were some issues with it, but BCV is an "older" resort and with the demand could be a really good candidate for another contract extension and see how it is received. If they extend BCV, especially around the time that BLT sells out...it would be a hot property that might pull in full retail. Having those points on hand would be very nice for DVC...especially with no other resorts in the pipeline.

I doubt that it is an expansion, they wouldn't need to ROFR points if they were merely expanding, unless it was in addition to an extension. So, in short my bet would be an extension of the contract and putting it out front like BLT is right now.

 

[BaldEmu]

One small thing which goes against a 'future plan' theory - we just passed ROFR with $77/pt for a Dec UY. It was probably priced fairly from a market perspective because points weren't available till 2012 UY (so assume each year's use for the next few years is worth $5/pt, which makes the effective price $87/pt if the 10 and 11 use years had been available).

However - if Disney is buying points for a future plan perspective - since they wouldn't need to discount for the lost use but just need the points for some future point in time - shouldn't $77 have been attractive to them?

 

[mjc2003]

I have no insider information, but my best guess....and extension of the contract. As others have said, they extended OKW and there were some issues with it, but BCV is an "older" resort and with the demand could be a really good candidate for another contract extension and see how it is received. If they extend BCV, especially around the time that BLT sells out...it would be a hot property that might pull in full retail. Having those points on hand would be very nice for DVC...especially with no other resorts in the pipeline.

I doubt that it is an expansion, they wouldn't need to ROFR points if they were merely expanding, unless it was in addition to an extension. So, in short my bet would be an extension of the contract and putting it out front like BLT is right now.

The more I think about it, the more this makes sense. I am new to this arena, do you (or anybody) mind telling what happened with the OKW extension? I've seen references to it being sort of a mess, but have not found anything explaining why. What happened with that?

I guess the issue for me then is, how would the extension be and how much will this cost? And do current members HAVE to extend? I would imagine no....but it would probably make the most sense if I wanted the contract to hold value.

 

[mjc2003]

One small thing which goes against a 'future plan' theory - we just passed ROFR with $77/pt for a Dec UY. It was probably priced fairly from a market perspective because points weren't available till 2012 UY (so assume each year's use for the next few years is worth $5/pt, which makes the effective price $87/pt if the 10 and 11 use years had been available).

However - if Disney is buying points for a future plan perspective - since they wouldn't need to discount for the lost use but just need the points for some future point in time - shouldn't $77 have been attractive to them?

That's very interesting. I am sure they have a formula, so who can say.

Maybe they are going to announce something as soon as this spring, so they do need to discount for the lost use?

 

[TisBit]

One small thing which goes against a 'future plan' theory - we just passed ROFR with $77/pt for a Dec UY. It was probably priced fairly from a market perspective because points weren't available till 2012 UY (so assume each year's use for the next few years is worth $5/pt, which makes the effective price $87/pt if the 10 and 11 use years had been available).

However - if Disney is buying points for a future plan perspective - since they wouldn't need to discount for the lost use but just need the points for some future point in time - shouldn't $77 have been attractive to them?

There is still a break even point for holding the points (and trying to rent those rooms for cash) and letting the contracts go through and keeping MF's coming in, etc. It appears about $85 per point is hte break even for them right now. I think the cost of points being $5 in your figures is a little low anyway...not many people want stripped contracts and for Disney they wouldn't be able to sell it until 2012, so its going to sit in their bank for a long time. If it is some type of modification to the resort (expansion or extenstion) Disney might stockpile points...but not at ANY cost.

The more I think about it, the more this makes sense. I am new to this arena, do you (or anybody) mind telling what happened with the OKW extension? I've seen references to it being sort of a mess, but have not found anything explaining why. What happened with that?

I guess the issue for me then is, how would the extension be and how much will this cost? And do current members HAVE to extend? I would imagine no....but it would probably make the most sense if I wanted the contract to hold value.

Long story short, a LOT of OKW owners did not like the prices or having to send in notarized paperwork declining the extension. DVC required all owners to respond either that they would or would not extend. Many owners complained about the costs of getting a notary (expecially overseas) and DVC ultimately compensated all the owners $30 on MF's to help cover the inconvenience.

Some owners challenged DVC on what would happen if they did not return the paperwork (and I believe are still holding out), etc. It was just a lot of drama surrounding it, but it was also the first time anything like that had happened or an extension was ever done.

 

[mjc2003]

Long story short, a LOT of OKW owners did not like the prices or having to send in notarized paperwork declining the extension. DVC required all owners to respond either that they would or would not extend.

This is what scares me. If there is an extension, they are going to make current members commit within a limited timeframe; I doubt we'll be able to ponder our decision for a few years.
Any idea how they priced the extension at OKW? Prorated based on their current pricing? I think they are charging $115 now for BCV, so would they extend it to 2060 and prorate the 18 extra years based on that $115 price?

Lot's of questions. If I resell the contract but don't extend, can the new buyer then have the option of extending?

I guess I should just see if this is even their intention before I get worried. I mentioned this possibility to the wife, and she said it's going to be hard to justify spending another $10,000+ on usage that's 31 years away. My instinct would be that we would not extend, should that be their plan.

 

[chalee94]

This is what scares me. If there is an extension, they are going to make current members commit within a limited timeframe; I doubt we'll be able to ponder our decision for a few years.

pretty sure that OKW owners who did not send back the paperwork can still extend today (at $25 per pt).

some who have not sent back the paperwork have stated that they hope to challenge the extension on legal grounds in an attempt to find a loophole that gets them a free extension. until DVC is certain that this issue is resolved, i don't think we're likely to see another resort extended. might depend on whether the language for BCV contracts was different than for the original OKW contracts in this area...

Any idea how they priced the extension at OKW?

$25 per pt (with initial discounts making it only $15 per pt for a period of time).

when these members have gone to sell, they have typically found resale buyers unwilling to pay much of a premium for the longer period...maybe $5-10 at most.

Lot's of questions. If I resell the contract but don't extend, can the new buyer then have the option of extending?

pretty sure that would be the case for OKW right now, yes.

i really don't see DVC extending another resort anytime soon, though. in addition to the legal wrangling and relatively small percentage of OKW owners who extended, BCV is connected to the BC/YC which adds the issue of whether DVC can extend BCV without getting approval from the hotel side - which might desire to do something different with the BC/YC after 2042.

i enjoy the conspiracy theories, though. you never know...

 

[LIFERBABE]

To me, the OKW was poorly done and poorly marketed. They sent fliers with Grandparents and Grandkids enjoying WDW and keeping the memories alive.

But they wanted todays dollars for something you will not benefit from for 30 years. Bottom line is, DVD new management felt they got a raw deal with OKW. It was the first and it was originally priced too low and the point chart was too low. I felt they were trying to recoup their perceived losses with the extension. They basically sold thin air for $15 a point and marketed it as a tangible benefit.

Then 1 year later, DVD abandoned ROFR on OKW (along with others) and those that paid $15 a point extra saw their immediate value decrease to $5 per point if that. People cut checks for thousands of dollars to extend. Many thought that purchasing the extension would buffer their values and that did not happen. Resale buyers are savvy and they know what they are buying for immediate use, not 30 years down the road.

I believe the OKW extension was done in lieu of an assessment and many legal issues linger. Next time they will just assess us to death and be done with it.
I dont believe BCV will be an extension. It will be a new issue. If current members want the extended BCV, they will have to pay market value or trade in plus cash. I can see a BCV1 and a BCV2 with a new 50 year lease. It wont cost them a thing and will probably sell out quicker than the first.

 

[TisBit]

This is what scares me. If there is an extension, they are going to make current members commit within a limited timeframe; I doubt we'll be able to ponder our decision for a few years.
Any idea how they priced the extension at OKW? Prorated based on their current pricing? I think they are charging $115 now for BCV, so would they extend it to 2060 and prorate the 18 extra years based on that $115 price?

Lot's of questions. If I resell the contract but don't extend, can the new buyer then have the option of extending?

I guess I should just see if this is even their intention before I get worried. I mentioned this possibility to the wife, and she said it's going to be hard to justify spending another $10,000+ on usage that's 31 years away. My instinct would be that we would not extend, should that be their plan.

OKW was extended with an inital discount of $15 per point and a long term price of $25 per point. I believe even if you declined initially, you were still able to change your mind. It was more of DVC being able to document that all members/owners had been contacted and were advised.

i really don't see DVC extending another resort anytime soon, though. in addition to the legal wrangling and relatively small percentage of OKW owners who extended, BCV is connected to the BC/YC which adds the issue of whether DVC can extend BCV without getting approval from the hotel side - which might desire to do something different with the BC/YC after 2042.

I don't believe an extension would require anything from the Hotel side since they are individual buildings and it already exists. Now, if they want an expansion that would be a bit difference...but keep in mind while DVD/DVC is seperate from Disney Resorts, they are both Disney and it is a rubber stamp approval.

There was no real information on the percent of owners that extended at OKW and many of the owners did not extend because they felt that owning over 50 years was useless (it would have been past their normal life span, etc). OKW is still out there with both expiration years and you see the extended OKW in resale relatively regularly. Also, all contracts that are ROFR'd or direct through Disney are automatically extended.

I think BCV could go completely differently than the OKW extension. For one, owners have seen it done before. Second, DVC learned some lessons during the process. Third, BCV is a much more desierable resort than OKW, so owners might feel differently about the extension and there is a good marketing ploy due to its popularity and proximity to a park.

Again, just a theory.

 

[mjc2003]

I dont believe BCV will be an extension. It will be a new issue. If current members want the extended BCV, they will have to pay market value or trade in plus cash. I can see a BCV1 and a BCV2 with a new 50 year lease. It wont cost them a thing and will probably sell out quicker than the first.

I'm confused; how would they do this? You say it would probably sell out quicker than the first; without an expansion, there is little for them to sell. They are sold out, or virtually so. They'd have much better success with an extension to all current members because, as you said with regards to OKW, trying to sell current owners on a new 50 year contract is selling "thin air" b/c they already have 31 years in the bank.

I would be inclined to think that they'd learn from OKW and improve on the formula rather than just abandon that option. But, what do I know?

Am I missing something with your scenario? I could be...it's nearing the end of a long week....I'm admittedly not thinking very clearly right now!

 

[LIFERBABE]

I'm confused; how would they do this? You say it would probably sell out quicker than the first; without an expansion, there is little for them to sell. They are sold out, or virtually so. They'd have much better success with an extension to all current members because, as you said with regards to OKW, trying to sell current owners on a new 50 year contract is selling "thin air" b/c they already have 31 years in the bank.

I would be inclined to think that they'd learn from OKW and improve on the formula rather than just abandon that option. But, what do I know?

Am I missing something with your scenario? I could be...it's nearing the end of a long week....I'm admittedly not thinking very clearly right now!

1 way to accomplish enough points for a new release is via ROFR. Another way is to offer owners a buy out. The third is to resell your current points back to you with the extension ala OKW. So I agree it will be an extension offer to all current members, but it will cost the owners significantly more and it will be an opt in.
If any resort could pull this off, it would be BCV. It's small, prime location and highly desireable.

Again just my opinion but I can pretty much guarantee we wont see a repeat of the OKW fiasco.

 

[mjc2003]

1 way to accomplish enough points for a new release is via ROFR. Another way is to offer owners a buy out. The third is to resell your current points back to you with the extension ala OKW. So I agree it will be an extension offer to all current members, but it will cost the owners significantly more and it will be an opt in.
If any resort could pull this off, it would be BCV. It's small, prime location and highly desireable.

Again just my opinion but I can pretty much guarantee we wont see a repeat of the OKW fiasco.

I'm sorry, I'm really new to this but none of this makes any sense to me. If they were going to launch a new release and accumulate points via ROFR, they'd be buying up every contract. One just went through for $77. And there are a grand total of 12 contracts available through all the major resellers, so why would owners who aren't selling take a buyout? Are they going to offer $100+ for a buyout? If so, why are they not buying every every ROFR contract in the low $80's?
As for selling contracts back with an extension, this speaks to your "buying thin air" comment from before. Why would I bother? If it's going to cost the owners "significantly more", why would they opt in? Owners are locked in for 31 years, as an owner, why bother opting in? For resale? The OKW example has already shown that paying big bucks for an extension doesn't result in commensurate returns via resale.

Like I said, I am new to this so what do I know.

I guess we can speculate all we want, and ultimately whatever they do will probably be something that nobody has even thought of! Oh well, I hope it all works out for everybody.