Why are airline prices so high just after Christmas, with hardly any seats taken ?

[PHILCT]

Hi Everyone

I was hoping to book a flight around December 27th to January 4th, from Hartford CT (BDL) to Orlando (MCO), but the prices are surprisingly high, plus or minus 500 dollars roundtrip (after taxes and fees).

I have been viewing the seats available on DELTA and they show most of the seats open. Is this because most people no longer pick a seat ahead of schedule, perhaps to avoid a fee for selecting seats now? Maybe these flights are fuller, and the seat availability is not really a great tool to think an airline needs to sell seats?

Do you think the prices will drop, and if so when, or should I book now and pay the 500 dollars? I realize it is a busy travel time, but I was thinking the fair price would have been 400 dollars or less.

Thank You for any advice,

Phil

 

[crashbb]

The seat availability chart is useless for telling you flight capacity - especially on airlines that charge for seat assignment.

 

[MAH4546]

Yield management.

Airfare is cheapest roughly 90-120 days before the flight. Before that, airlines try to sell more expensive fare buckets to see how the flight fills up.

 

[TheWog]

Plus it is Christmas time, higher passenger volume, and you are going from a cold climate to a warm climate and around weekends with holidays. Put all that together and you are looking at higher fares. People will pay the prices when they see that is all that's available.

 

[nordkin]

We are seeing the same thing from Washington DC to Orlando. Farecast, which is now Bing Travel, is saying wait to purchase. I have noticed the prices are coming down a few dollars at a time and if they get below $300 pp we will book.

 

[Missytara]

You have to remember too that a lot of people have off between Christmas and New Year's - where I live we have manufacturing plants that shut down completely and have contractors come in to do maintenance/construction work.

So a lot of people may be flying during that week; the old adage that if the demand is high......

 

[PHILCT]

We are seeing the same thing from Washington DC to Orlando. Farecast, which is now Bing Travel, is saying wait to purchase. I have noticed the prices are coming down a few dollars at a time and if they get below $300 pp we will book.

I tried the BING Travel, and I did set a rate tracker alert.

I did get back a tip to wait:

7-Day Low Fare Prediction
Tip: Wait Lowest fares are likely to drop or hold steady within the next 7 days. Note: Price drops are sporadic and 50% of them do not last longer than 48 hours. Consider your risk tolerance.
Confidence:
88% The confidence percentage is based on our track record for predictions in this and similar markets.

Thanks for your advice, Phil

 

[nordkin]

I tried the BING Travel, and I did set a rate tracker alert.

I did get back a tip to wait:

7-Day Low Fare Prediction
Tip: Wait Lowest fares are likely to drop or hold steady within the next 7 days. Note: Price drops are sporadic and 50% of them do not last longer than 48 hours. Consider your risk tolerance.
Confidence:
88% The confidence percentage is based on our track record for predictions in this and similar markets.

Thanks for your advice, Phil

Glad I could be of some help. I too get the tracker alerts and immediately check the fares. I have used this site a lot and it works to get lower fares.

 

[deedeetoo]

I have to disagree with the advice of waiting for your price when you are talking about peak travel times. I think if you really intend to wait for $300, you should be prepared to drive or have some other back up plan because I don't think there is any way it will get there.

Lately I have traveled only during peak travel times for vacation. My last two vacations were April school vacation and July 4th week. My next trip is almost the same dates as yours. The July trip and the December trip I booked on JetBlue the date that they opened up fares. I am kind of obsessive about knowing that I got a good deal so I am always double checking myself. I always periodically go in and check my flights, first to see if they are still there, but also to see where the price is. Neither flight ever came down from the initial day it was offered for sale. When SW opened up I checked their rates out of curiosity. They were $hundreds higher than I paid. And Delta? Higher everytime I looked and they never dropped.

For the April trip I actually booked 10 months out on USAir (not to MCO) as soon as we decided to go. I also checked this one and also started following JetBlue after they released fares. Despite oil prices dropping tremendously from the time I booked until I flew, the prices never went below where I purchased.

I could give you more examples, but I am a strong believer that the advice that prices will be lowest 90 to 120 days out does not apply to peak holiday travel periods.

I don't know what to tell you to do. I think you already missed the good prices. I guess if I were is your shoes I'd figure out what was the most I would be willing to pay to avoid driving and see if they ever drop that low. Otherwise start getting those maps ready.

 

[nordkin]

I have to disagree with the advice of waiting for your price when you are talking about peak travel times. I think if you really intend to wait for $300, you should be prepared to drive or have some other back up plan because I don't think there is any way it will get there.

Lately I have traveled only during peak travel times for vacation. My last two vacations were April school vacation and July 4th week. My next trip is almost the same dates as yours. The July trip and the December trip I booked on JetBlue the date that they opened up fares. I am kind of obsessive about knowing that I got a good deal so I am always double checking myself. I always periodically go in and check my flights, first to see if they are still there, but also to see where the price is. Neither flight ever came down from the initial day it was offered for sale. When SW opened up I checked their rates out of curiosity. They were $hundreds higher than I paid. And Delta? Higher everytime I looked and they never dropped.

For the April trip I actually booked 10 months out on USAir (not to MCO) as soon as we decided to go. I also checked this one and also started following JetBlue after they released fares. Despite oil prices dropping tremendously from the time I booked until I flew, the prices never went below where I purchased.

I could give you more examples, but I am a strong believer that the advice that prices will be lowest 90 to 120 days out does not apply to peak holiday travel periods.

I don't know what to tell you to do. I think you already missed the good prices. I guess if I were is your shoes I'd figure out what was the most I would be willing to pay to avoid driving and see if they ever drop that low. Otherwise start getting those maps ready.

I have been cheking flights since the 330 day mark and they were higher then thanthey are today out of Washington. I always look for the best fares and do believe th fares will come down in the next 30 days. We are prepared to drive if we hsve to.

 

[johnnyr]

I have been cheking flights since the 330 day mark and they were higher then thanthey are today out of Washington. I always look for the best fares and do believe th fares will come down in the next 30 days. We are prepared to drive if we hsve to.

For your sake I hope you are correct. I've checked flights for Christmas week from PHL to MCO for the past 3 years daily from the 330 day mark. Sometimes checking 2 and 3 times a day. The cheapest flights were anywhere from a few days to a few weeks of the airline making the fares available. Then, they go way up and stay there. Sometimes the decent fares were only up for a very short peroid of time. I grabbed my Airtran tickets for Christmas week 2 days after they were released this year. The next day, they went up $250 per ticket and have yet to come down. I've learned to grab peak travel time airfare quick. You may not get another chance.