maroo
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2008
- Messages
- 8,036
I saw the 80-90% stat, too...
I will try to find the source.
**Could not find a 80-90% source...but I did find this. Which is pretty high.
Here is a source citing 63% attack rate. This is an estimate based on the current vaccination campaign. This article is dated October 15, 2009 - so it is recent.
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19358
We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.
I will try to find the source.
**Could not find a 80-90% source...but I did find this. Which is pretty high.
Here is a source citing 63% attack rate. This is an estimate based on the current vaccination campaign. This article is dated October 15, 2009 - so it is recent.
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19358
We use data on confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), disseminated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(US CDC), to fit the parameters of a seasonally forced Susceptible, Infective, Recovered (SIR) model. We use the resulting model to predict the course of the H1N1 influenza pandemic in autumn 2009, and we assess the efficacy of the planned CDC H1N1 vaccination campaign. The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.