Who would you trust for HS crowd prediction?

[1st_trip_10/05]

I’ve subscribed to both TP & KTP. I’m planning a trip for September 17-23. Trying to plan my HS day and KTP has 9/21 as a Green Day and TP show 9 out of 10 for crowds. I find it really hard to believe that HS on a Saturday shortly after SWGE opening would be anything other than a red day but so many people say KTP is spot on with predictions. I have no interest in SWGE and will avoid that area. Maybe the rest of HS will be ok?
Should I plan HS for that day and trust KTP or switch to a day TP recommends?

 

[sethschroeder]

There is only so much room in GE. Once that is "full" (meaning a long line or virtual queue or no room to even line up for the rest of the day) then people possibly are going to just leave HS and go over to Epcot or elsewhere (or possibly not even go to HS). So the "worse" the day actually will lead to less crowds.

There might be a weird reverse psychology of GE which actually forces people away from HS. It's all guess work.

I personally would keep your options open (you can't book FP+ for GE anyways). Plan on 1 early morning for GE and 1 early morning for the rest of HS. If crowds are not as bad you can do the rest of HS the day of GE otherwise you have the "worse case" prepared for.

This is an example of the first 4 days planned for my trip. Day 1 MK, Day 2 AK, Day 3 (GE Early - FP+ for HS - Epcot afternoon), Day 4 Epcot (potential to his HS for non GE in the AM - Epcot FP+ mid/late morning 5 hours after HS opening)

 

[_19disnA]

Frequently asked question on here. Honestly, none of those 3rd party crowd estimating sites are anything but educated guesses based on perhaps historical data and known upcoming events. Even Disney has no idea how many locals with Annual Passes or those staying at a non-Disney hotel will decide to go to which park on any given day.

 

[holden]

Crowd predictions are worthless, especially with GE opening. No one knows what crowds will do because that section of the park isn't open yet.

Even if one park was more crowded than another, it's all relative. I might think crowds aren't bad and you might think they are unbearable and vice versa.

Just plan your trip and enjoy!

 

[WDW_Ding]

touringplans.com has been doing crowd predictions for a long time and are very good at it.

Every day they post how accurate their predictions were for the day before. Take a look and see for yourself how accurate they are.

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar

 

[Fangorn]

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar

This, like the crowd calendars themselves, is also useless. It's like having the DMV telling us they have fantastic customer service. Biased and self-serving.

Steve

 

[georgina]

I don't bother with crowd calendars as I think they are worthless, especially so with the SW land opening. I just pick whatever day works for me.

 

[suemom2kay]

This, like the crowd calendars themselves, is also useless. It's like having the DMV telling us they have fantastic customer service. Biased and self-serving.

Steve

They also CHANGE their "predictions" as the days get closer. Are they basing their success on original prediction or the newly changed "prediction" a week out?

 

[suemom2kay]

I’ve subscribed to both TP & KTP. I’m planning a trip for September 17-23. Trying to plan my HS day and KTP has 9/21 as a Green Day and TP show 9 out of 10 for crowds. I find it really hard to believe that HS on a Saturday shortly after SWGE opening would be anything other than a red day but so many people say KTP is spot on with predictions. I have no interest in SWGE and will avoid that area. Maybe the rest of HS will be ok?
Should I plan HS for that day and trust KTP or switch to a day TP recommends?

I personally would not visit HS or EP on a weekend in September 2019 unless I was just there for JUST the weekend.

 

[Superchikk]

I'm planning to follow KTP's day recommendation and EasyWDW touring strategy for HS. That's probably as clear as mud, and it may come back to bite me in the rear. Similar to sethschroeder's plan to split it into two early mornings. But I feel like I don't have to worry over the tiers at HS if I do that, and I can utilize my FP later in the day at another park.

 

[1st_trip_10/05]

TP & KTP are just completely opposite in their predictions. TP has it rated as bad as you can pretty much get and KTP is saying that’s the best day to go. We have a VIP tour booked for 1 day of our trip and HS is part of our day. We can hit our must-do rides that day and the the 21st just see how it goes. If it’s a nightmare like TP predicts we can get the heck out and if the majority of the crowd is concentrating on SWGE (which we couldn’t care less about) then we’ll enjoy a relatively good day.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I wouldn't bank on anyone -- even Disney -- for crowd predictions here. SWGE has proven unpredictable wrt crowds in DL, and I don't think anyone has a REAL idea of how it will play out in WDW -- except to assume it will be more crowded than in DL.

 

[js]

Even during the Christmas season they still list Best Park, or Green Days, even though the parks are at level 10s. I follow both, but I always end up with TPs, even though as was said, they do change their predictions, even up to a few days before your arrival.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Normally, I like the accuracy of them both, the yare good. However to try and make a well placed guess on the Studios after SWGE is not a safe bet, IMO. SWGE crowds in DL threw everyone for a loop, including Disney.

 

[Timothy02359]

Trust no one on crowd predictions.

 

[texasroni75]

KtP. Green Day doesn’t mean he’s predicting “low crowds”. All parks might be 9 out of 10 for capacity on that day. What It means is it’s the park he recommends for that particular day based on a variety of factors like special events and extra magic hours at the other parks too. Crowd predictors are educated guesses - and are helpful but not guarantees. I say get park hoppers so you can head to another park if you feel the “prediction”. was way off base once you get there.

 

[Klayfish]

Crowd predictions are worthless, especially with GE opening. No one knows what crowds will do because that section of the park isn't open yet.

Even if one park was more crowded than another, it's all relative. I might think crowds aren't bad and you might think they are unbearable and vice versa.

Just plan your trip and enjoy!

Not only are they worthless, they're misleading...they don't even try to measure crowds but they still call it a "crowd" calendar.

Save your time, don't bother with them. Snake oil.

 

[Trip planner]

What is KTP? I have only ever subscribed to TP.

 

[toasterstrudel]

KTP = Kenny the Pirate

 

[WDW_Ding]

Not only are they worthless, they're misleading...they don't even try to measure crowds but they still call it a "crowd" calendar.

Save your time, don't bother with them. Snake oil.

You obviously have a bee in your bonnet about crowd calendars, but for the others who might happen across this later, I want to point out that Touring Plans isn't "snake oil." Read "How Our Crowd Calendar Works" to get an idea of how Touring Plans arrives at their predictions. They are, of course, estimates, and Touring Plans calls them that. No one can know crowd levels, for sure. But, Touring Plans is better than nothing and, over the last 5 years or so, I have found their estimates to be pretty accurate and a great help when I'm trying to decide when to go to WDW.