Who would you trust for HS crowd prediction?

[Kimpossible1]

Disneyland's AP's are blocked out at this time, so that could be a reason their crowds are lower. I would not rely on any web's site estimates for crowds.

 

[1st_trip_10/05]

Well I've played around with our days so much and I feel like my AK, MK & Epcot days are all good choices for when I have them planned. Each of those KTP & TP are showing green or low crowd levels so I don't want to change one of those to move our HS day. I think HS is likely going to be awful no matter what day we go. We will take advantage of our VIP day time at HS and see/do what we want and then on the 21st we'll just see how it goes. I will go in assuming it's going to be awful and won't be shocked when it is. I have breakfast ADRs for Hollywood & Vine with the Fantasmic pkg. If it's horrible we'll head to the resort and come back for Fantasmic. I know the risk with that is that HS reaches full capacity and they don't allow us back in in the evening. That would stink but hopefully it doesn't happen.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Disneyland's AP's are blocked out at this time, so that could be a reason their crowds are lower. I would not rely on any web's site estimates for crowds.

I could be wrong, but I think I read that the blackout was lifted due to the unexpected very low crowd levels.

 

[Klayfish]

You obviously have a bee in your bonnet about crowd calendars, but for the others who might happen across this later, I want to point out that Touring Plans isn't "snake oil." Read "How Our Crowd Calendar Works" to get an idea of how Touring Plans arrives at their predictions. They are, of course, estimates, and Touring Plans calls them that. No one can know crowd levels, for sure. But, Touring Plans is better than nothing and, over the last 5 years or so, I have found their estimates to be pretty accurate and a great help when I'm trying to decide when to go to WDW.

I've never used them, so it's not a bee in the bonnet thing. I just think it's a shame that there are so many posts, like this one, asking should they alter plans, make an entire trip, etc...around these "crowd" calendars. I have read the page you hyperlinked (I like TP for the crowd sourced wait times only, but have read the rest of their website). In reality, they aren't even trying to predict crowd size. They're trying to predict ride wait times, which may or may not have anything to do with actual crowd size. So why call it a "crowd" calendar, when that's not even what they're actually predicting? Deceptive and misleading name, IMO. They are trying to make these predictions largely on years of historical data. However, WDW is ever changing, so what happened on a random Tuesday in August 2016 may have nothing to do with what happens on a Tuesday in August 2019, as things have changed. There are variables that simply can't be accounted for. The biggest ones of course are weather and attractions going down. When that happens, it can have huge impacts on ride wait times and actual crowd size. As has also been said here, even WDW doesn't know how many locals, APs, etc..will show up on a given day. A 1-10 scale is really subjective anyway. You may walk in and say "wow, this feels like a 9" and someone else will walk in and say "Gee, not too crowded today, I'd say it's a 5".

There's a reason various crowd calendars are in complete contradiction to one another so often...they're just wild guesses. IMO, they're snake oil.

 

[Kimpossible1]

Only the top two Disneyland AP's are allowed, and that was what it was originally. They lifted Cast Member Self Admit but Cast Member Main Entrance Passes which allow CM's to take guests are still blocked out. They probably won't lift AP's at Disneyland because many people bought the higher level so they could have admission to SWGE and would be very angry if they let other AP's in that were blocked out. Most of this info is on the Disneyland DIS board and CM HUB.

 

[TheSouthernBelle]

I have no idea what algorithms the 3rd party sites use but they are helpful for planning your days in case you forget there is a party or other special event like EMH, etc but beyond that, I plan my days based on what works for me and my family.

I do subscribe to TP for the reservation finder and room request, not the crowd calendars. I noted TP's crowd calendar for our last November trip and they were wrong on 3 of the 4 days, did it really matter, no we managed just fine but it just shows that it's a guessing game. My gut with SWGE is it will be a sit and wait approach for how the 3rd party crowd trackers will navigate and it will change a lot just even a few days prior. Just plan your trip based on what works for you. Having a plan in itself will help regardless of crowd level.

 

[TheSouthernBelle]

Normally, I like the accuracy of them both, the yare good. However to try and make a well placed guess on the Studios after SWGE is not a safe bet, IMO. SWGE crowds in DL threw everyone for a loop, including Disney.

Totally agree, and I will say, disney didn't want to see their parks empty after SWGE opened at DL. So my guess and what the DIS guys are guessing too, which they have the experience behind them, Disney will throw out every deal to make sure that what happened at DL doesn't happen at WDW after SWGE opens so they will throw out all the tricks to get people in the resorts and the parks. I am planning on busy parks so for now we're heading back in early August and will wait to see what the AP SW date is and go from there. I am not booking anything for the fall until I see how this all unfolds.

 

[monkyby87]

You obviously have a bee in your bonnet about crowd calendars, but for the others who might happen across this later, I want to point out that Touring Plans isn't "snake oil." Read "How Our Crowd Calendar Works" to get an idea of how Touring Plans arrives at their predictions. They are, of course, estimates, and Touring Plans calls them that. No one can know crowd levels, for sure. But, Touring Plans is better than nothing and, over the last 5 years or so, I have found their estimates to be pretty accurate and a great help when I'm trying to decide when to go to WDW.

Not to be that guy, but I do think nothing can be better than using crowd calendars. Despite how they "work" or what they measure, they can set you up for failure. They can negatively alter your expectations. That's why many people, myself included, don't recommend even consulting them. If you go in with a decent plan for what you want to do, and expect heavy crowds, you can have a great time at any of the parks, any day of the week, at any time. Even if they are still rather accurate (I disagree that they are), so much is changing that they're quickly becoming obsolete. Any historical data and predicated data is moot.

 

[YesterDark]

Crowd Calendars are fine, they're there to give you a general idea, not something to fine tune your vacation around.

 

[WDW_Ding]

I've never used them, so it's not a bee in the bonnet thing. I just think it's a shame that there are so many posts, like this one, asking should they alter plans, make an entire trip, etc...around these "crowd" calendars. I have read the page you hyperlinked (I like TP for the crowd sourced wait times only, but have read the rest of their website). In reality, they aren't even trying to predict crowd size. They're trying to predict ride wait times, which may or may not have anything to do with actual crowd size. So why call it a "crowd" calendar, when that's not even what they're actually predicting? Deceptive and misleading name, IMO. They are trying to make these predictions largely on years of historical data. However, WDW is ever changing, so what happened on a random Tuesday in August 2016 may have nothing to do with what happens on a Tuesday in August 2019, as things have changed. There are variables that simply can't be accounted for. The biggest ones of course are weather and attractions going down. When that happens, it can have huge impacts on ride wait times and actual crowd size. As has also been said here, even WDW doesn't know how many locals, APs, etc..will show up on a given day. A 1-10 scale is really subjective anyway. You may walk in and say "wow, this feels like a 9" and someone else will walk in and say "Gee, not too crowded today, I'd say it's a 5".

There's a reason various crowd calendars are in complete contradiction to one another so often...they're just wild guesses. IMO, they're snake oil.

For what it's worth, here is where they explain what the 1-10 scale means.

Crowd Calendars are fine, they're there to give you a general idea, not something to fine tune your vacation around.

I 100% agree with this. No one can know crowd levels for sure, but if you know you want to visit WDW for a week in, say, September, a crowd calendar will help you decide *which* week to choose.