Who said Harry Potter was a passing fad?

[Mouseaholic!!!]

Here's my question to HP fan?
Will you plan an vacation to stay at US to visit 1 section of one of the two parks they have, eat there, sleep at US hotels..for a week?
then on the side visit Disney?

or will you Plan an entire vacation at Disney, go there to 4 different parks, eat there, sleep there...then on the side visit IoA for a day to see the 1 section of HP area?

Personally I think it's more likely the second.
and if it's the second option...then they will stay second to disney like they are now.

I doubt that HP will ever surpass Disney....but taking away a large chunk of Disney guests....even for 1 or 2 days will impact Disney in a bad way. You may think 1 or 2 days away from a Disney park on a 7-day trip is nothing.....I think Disney will look at it in a completely different way. It's loss of revenue - hands down.

Bottom line......Universal is building an entire new Park-lett to entice us....Disney is giving us....um.....American Idol <---woooooooooooo.

I have never known Disney to throw in the towel. Lay down and roll over Disney! Oh well, there is a first for everything!

Oh by the way....


NY times.....

A Wizard Is a Whiz at the Box Office

For the three-day weekend, “Half-Blood Prince” was easily No. 1 with estimated ticket sales of $79.5 million. (“Order of the Phoenix” sold a comparable $77 million.) Passing fad numbers?


And opening weekend for UP (I was there with a large gaggle of friends for this one!)

Disney/Pixar's animated comedy "Up" flew high over other films to dominate the box office this weekend in North America with an estimated 68.2 million dollars over the three-day period, according to figures released yesterday.


Fad you say?

 

[tjkraz]

I doubt that HP will ever surpass Disney....but taking away a large chunk of Disney guests....even for 1 or 2 days will impact Disney in a bad way. You may think 1 or 2 days away from a Disney park on a 7-day trip is nothing.....I think Disney will look at it in a completely different way. It's loss of revenue - hands down.

I agree with the others who said that it will be mostly a short-term thing. Curiosity-seekers may plan a day or two at US to see what's going on. But the nature of Disney ticketing makes that an expensive proposition. The cost of a 7-day MYW ticket is only a couple dollars more than a 5-day pass. Why spend extra to visit US when you can get two more days at WDW virtually for free?

Fad you say?

How much revenue will the HP franchise be generating come 2012? HP may not fit the dictionary definition of a "fad" but with no new content on the horizon, its popularity will only wane.

 

[NoLineOntheHorizon]

Disney is smart to hold tight right now with the economy the way it is. They are doing okay even without new additions. IF the rumored expansions to DHS (Pixar Place), DAK (Beastly) and an updated Fantasyland are true, then Disney has nothing to worry about. If they are not true, I believe Disney still has nothing to worry about. I am sure they have something new waiting in the wings. The newness of HP will be gone by then, and people will be flocking to Disney in droves. Patience will have it's benefits. No need for Disney to panic.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

Disney is smart to hold tight right now with the economy the way it is. They are doing okay even without new additions.

You really think Disney Parks & DVC divisions are doing ok? Somehow I think they grownups on the West may not have called in the cheerleaders and marching band when they were writing this. (.....and these numbers don't include the enthusiasm for HP).

What do you suppose they will do if the economy has not returned to robust status AND HP opens? That will be a double-whammy for Disney.


Quote from Disney's 2nd quarter earnings statement - 2009.

Parks and Resorts

Parks and Resorts revenues for the quarter decreased 12% to $2.4 billion and segment operating income decreased 50% to $171 million. Lower operating income was due to decreases at the Walt Disney World Resort, Disney Vacation Club, Disneyland Resort and Disneyland Resort Paris. Operating income comparisons were unfavorably impacted by the shift of the Easter holiday from the second quarter in fiscal 2008 to the third quarter in fiscal 2009.

Domestic Operations

Lower operating income at the Walt Disney World Resort and Disneyland Resort was primarily due to decreased guest spending, partially offset by lower costs. Decreased guest spending at the Walt Disney World Resort was due to lower average daily hotel room rates, lower average ticket prices and decreased merchandise spending. At Disneyland Resort, decreased guest spending was primarily due to lower average ticket prices and decreased merchandise spending. Lower costs reflected savings from cost mitigation activities and lower cost of merchandise, food and beverages sold, partially offset by labor and other cost inflation. Lower operating income at Disney Vacation Club reflected unfavorable impacts associated with securitized ownership interests, higher per unit cost of sales, decreased sales of term extensions on certain existing properties and lower rentals of vacation club units.

 

[Metro West]

Just curious about something.........

I know most of you seem to think HP will not hold anyone's attention very long since Universal is constructing this area but what if Disney had won the rights to it? Do you still think it would be just a fad or something of lasting value?

Thoughts?

 

[tjkraz]

You really think Disney Parks & DVC divisions are doing ok? Somehow I think they grownups on the West may not have called in the cheerleaders and marching band when they were writing this. (.....and these numbers don't include the enthusiasm for HP).

What do you suppose they will do if the economy has not returned to robust status AND HP opens? That will be a double-whammy for Disney.

The numbers would be largely the same regardless of whether Disney had something big in the works or not. Opening a new land at one of the Disney theme parks wouldn't do much to change people's opinions on whether they should spend their dollars on the mortgage or food vs. a new t-shirt.

Growth of the theme parks is a necessary part of their business and it WILL come...good economy or bad...Harry Potter or no.

As for whether HP will even impact Disney's business...that remains to be seen. HP will only constitute 2 or 3 attractions in a single theme park. Disney may well lose a day here and there from some guests, but the nature of the ticket scheme means that revenue stream wouldn't be impacted. Disney may lose a day of guest spending, but much of that can be made up elsewhere (if you know you only have 6 days at WDW instead of 7, you buy your t-shirts, pins and other trinkets in the days available.)

And it's likely that Disney will benefit from HP due to new business brought to town. For some HP will be the impetus for a visit central Florida, yet those people could spend more time at the 4 Disney parks (and 2 waterparks) than the 2 Universal parks.

 

[NoLineOntheHorizon]

You really think Disney Parks & DVC divisions are doing ok? Somehow I think they grownups on the West may not have called in the cheerleaders and marching band when they were writing this. (.....and these numbers don't include the enthusiasm for HP).

What do you suppose they will do if the economy has not returned to robust status AND HP opens? That will be a double-whammy for Disney.


Quote from Disney's 2nd quarter earnings statement - 2009.

Parks and Resorts

Parks and Resorts revenues for the quarter decreased 12% to $2.4 billion and segment operating income decreased 50% to $171 million. Lower operating income was due to decreases at the Walt Disney World Resort, Disney Vacation Club, Disneyland Resort and Disneyland Resort Paris. Operating income comparisons were unfavorably impacted by the shift of the Easter holiday from the second quarter in fiscal 2008 to the third quarter in fiscal 2009.

Domestic Operations

Lower operating income at the Walt Disney World Resort and Disneyland Resort was primarily due to decreased guest spending, partially offset by lower costs. Decreased guest spending at the Walt Disney World Resort was due to lower average daily hotel room rates, lower average ticket prices and decreased merchandise spending. At Disneyland Resort, decreased guest spending was primarily due to lower average ticket prices and decreased merchandise spending. Lower costs reflected savings from cost mitigation activities and lower cost of merchandise, food and beverages sold, partially offset by labor and other cost inflation. Lower operating income at Disney Vacation Club reflected unfavorable impacts associated with securitized ownership interests, higher per unit cost of sales, decreased sales of term extensions on certain existing properties and lower rentals of vacation club units.

Yes, I have read all the numbers before. I know of almost all company's current struggles due to the economy. Disney is not exempt. But, I also know that historically Disney, and that means Walt Disney, has gone for broke (Disneyland, Fantasia, Sleeping Beauty, etc, etc) and taken losses and we all know how that turned out. Also, think of the 1940's post Bambi (which also did not have huge returns) when the studio was putting out much cheaper product and laying low while the war was going on and until the company recouped itself financially. Disney, the company, has been in much, much worse situations, and that is why I think they will be okay. I don't see a reason for panic just because of Harry Potter. Really?? Mickey Mouse or Harry Potter for the ages? Nothing against HP, though.

 

[redrosesix]

Here's my question to HP fan?
Will you plan an vacation to stay at US to visit 1 section of one of the two parks they have, eat there, sleep at US hotels..for a week?
then on the side visit Disney?

or will you Plan an entire vacation at Disney, go there to 4 different parks, eat there, sleep there...then on the side visit IoA for a day to see the 1 section of HP area?

Personally I think it's more likely the second.
and if it's the second option...then they will stay second to disney like they are now.

Umm...we've never even gone to US and we're planning to do the first option. We're cutting back on our days at WDW (not just the ticket expense, but also food etc) and planning to stay at a US hotel for atleast 2 nights. Plus, we already know we'll be spending the majority of our shopping money in the HP land -- have already decided there will be no WDW souvenirs next year.

We also know people who are doing only US and those parks (on the flex ticket) on their trip to Orlando next year. True, adding additional WDW days does not cost much, but the other ticket prices are better no matter how you look at it.

 

[redrosesix]

Just curious about something.........

I know most of you seem to think HP will not hold anyone's attention very long since Universal is constructing this area but what if Disney had won the rights to it? Do you still think it would be just a fad or something of lasting value?

Thoughts?

Excellent point! I think the naysayers would be bragging if WDW had won the contract.

But fortunately they didn't. HP fans wouldn't want to see a disneyfied version of their books -- JK Rowlings insisted on the attractions being true to her vision and that's what will make it work for HP fans.

 

[tjkraz]

I know most of you seem to think HP will not hold anyone's attention very long since Universal is constructing this area but what if Disney had won the rights to it? Do you still think it would be just a fad or something of lasting value?

There are two issues here: How will HP land at IOA impact Disney and whether or not HP fits into that "timeless" category.

I don't think HP/IOA will have much of an impact on Disney. Sure some people will elect to take a day or two out of their Disney vacation to visit Universal instead. Others will still spend the same amount of time at the Disney parks and extend their trips to visit IOA. And as I said in my other post, Disney can also benefit from new business brought to town.

If we were talking about an entire Harry Potter theme park, my take might be different. But I don't see an hour's worth of Harry Potter-themed entertainment having a huge impact on spending decisions.

Honestly I was never keen on the idea of Disney partnering with HP. Disney's films and characters have achieved a certain timeless quality that is elusive to most. And for the most part Disney has been successful in seeking out good partners outside of their own company. Star Wars and Indiana Jones are two that come immediately to mind (even though all FL has is the tired IJ stunt show.)

By comparison, most of the exhibits in The Great Movie Ride are pretty dated, IMO. Alien...Tarzan...the gangster and cowboy scenes...unfamiliar to most of today's theme park going public. And for the most part, Universal has followed a similar path by latching onto licenses that are now quite dated. Twister...ET...Fear Factor (ugh!)...Beetlejuice...Terminator...Men in Black...in a few more years you can put Mummy in this category. They all have a finite shelf life and (again, IMO) reach a point where the name recognition starts to work against them.

Dr. Seuss and the Marvel super heroes were better acquisitions...although they somewhat squandered the Marvel license by going el cheapo on the "land" they built. I do think HP has a better chance than most of reaching that "timeless" level. But without any new content to drive interest, the product's popularity will only wane over time.

If you believe the stories on the web, Rowling was making a lot of design demands while negotiating with Disney. And it certainly would not have been a cheap license to acquire. Honestly Disney has enough of their own intellectual property to mine before they start spending hundreds-of-millions of dollars just to put someone else's character in the parks.

 

[NoLineOntheHorizon]

There are two issues here: How will HP land at IOA impact Disney and whether or not HP fits into that "timeless" category.

I don't think HP/IOA will have much of an impact on Disney. Sure some people will elect to take a day or two out of their Disney vacation to visit Universal instead. Others will still spend the same amount of time at the Disney parks and extend their trips to visit IOA. And as I said in my other post, Disney can also benefit from new business brought to town.

If we were talking about an entire Harry Potter theme park, my take might be different. But I don't see an hour's worth of Harry Potter-themed entertainment having a huge impact on spending decisions.

Honestly I was never keen on the idea of Disney partnering with HP. Disney's films and characters have achieved a certain timeless quality that is elusive to most. And for the most part Disney has been successful in seeking out good partners outside of their own company. Star Wars and Indiana Jones are two that come immediately to mind (even though all FL has is the tired IJ stunt show.)

By comparison, most of the exhibits in The Great Movie Ride are pretty dated, IMO. Alien...Tarzan...the gangster and cowboy scenes...unfamiliar to most of today's theme park going public. And for the most part, Universal has followed a similar path by latching onto licenses that are now quite dated. Twister...ET...Fear Factor (ugh!)...Beetlejuice...Terminator...Men in Black...in a few more years you can put Mummy in this category. They all have a finite shelf life and (again, IMO) reach a point where the name recognition starts to work against them.

Dr. Seuss and the Marvel super heroes were better acquisitions...although they somewhat squandered the Marvel license by going el cheapo on the "land" they built. I do think HP has a better chance than most of reaching that "timeless" level. But without any new content to drive interest, the product's popularity will only wane over time.

If you believe the stories on the web, Rowling was making a lot of design demands while negotiating with Disney. And it certainly would not have been a cheap license to acquire. Honestly Disney has enough of their own intellectual property to mine before they start spending hundreds-of-millions of dollars just to put someone else's character in the parks.

Great post!

 

[tjkraz]

Umm...we've never even gone to US and we're planning to do the first option. We're cutting back on our days at WDW (not just the ticket expense, but also food etc) and planning to stay at a US hotel for atleast 2 nights.

And I'm sure many people will do the same. But only time will tell whether this is a one-time diversion or something that will be repeated over and over again. It's not an entire park--just a couple of attractions and a themed corner of the park. Unless you discover more substance at those parks, I doubt you're going to pay those premium prices just to spend another hour in a "land" you've visited 3 or 4 times before.

I'm trying not to come across as a Disney shill but after visiting the Universal parks a number of times, I've always found them to be lacking. The theming is not as good as Disney parks. The employees are not nearly as friendly and helpful. There are a few jewels in their attraction lineup (Mummy, Spider-Man and Simpsons are the three that come immediately to mind) but others are sorely lacking. Park hours are typically shorter than Disney's. There is no nighttime entertainment to speak of. They seem to flip attractions into a "seasonal" status on a whim just to save money.

On the brighter side, the hotels (operated by Loews) are excellent. No complaints at all there. As for the parks, there are things to like but overall it just feels like an inferior attempt to copy Disney's formula. I doubt there are many Disney (WDW) fans whose visits to Universal caused a long-term shift in their vacation habits.

 

[alexsdc2]

I think it would be the same situation. I have the same issue with American Idol right now. What happens when the show goes off the air? I think it will end up just like the Millionaire game and die off and be replaced.

 

[Lupin]

When I hear about all of the cool things that Universal is building for the Harry Potter section, I can't imagine why Disney didn't get the rights to build this in their own parks. If Universal can execute on all the stuff they're promising, then they're going to make a ton of money!

 

[Padrepride]

The ultimate question is: does Harry Potter have lasting power? Fans will say yes, of course, but will the rest of the fan base stay true like it has for Star Wars at the Disney parks? Star Wars has multiple movies spread out over 20-30 years that keeps fans coming back over 2 or more generations. Same with Indiana Jones. Harry Potter is having all 8 movies within 10-15 years or so. Will it still have the same popularity in 20 years? I think not. What I'm trying to say is that Star Wars and Indy have stayed relevant because of new movies [no matter how good/bad they are.] And Harry Potter won't have that luxury unless J.K. Rowlings changes her mind.

 

[redrosesix]

The ultimate question is: does Harry Potter have lasting power? Fans will say yes, of course, but will the rest of the fan base stay true like it has for Star Wars at the Disney parks? Star Wars has multiple movies spread out over 20-30 years that keeps fans coming back over 2 or more generations. Same with Indiana Jones. Harry Potter is having all 8 movies within 10-15 years or so. Will it still have the same popularity in 20 years? I think not. What I'm trying to say is that Star Wars and Indy have stayed relevant because of new movies [no matter how good/bad they are.] And Harry Potter won't have that luxury unless J.K. Rowlings changes her mind.

Just playing devil's advocate here -- we've been to DHS about 5 times and have yet to do the Star Wars ride. Yes, I saw 4 of the movies, but DD has seen none of them -- just couldn't bother finishing the first one so we didn't move on to the rest. My nephews are really into the Star Wars theme (in Lego that is). DH, the science fiction guy in the family, would rather watch the movie again than do the ride. so for us, that ride is really not a draw.

Having said that, if WDW had done a Star Wars land rather than 1 ride, I'm sure it would have been a huge draw for a lot of people. And if JK Rowlings had decided instead to build a stand alone park dedicated to HP in London, we'd be planning a trip to England right now. I'm sure the same could be said about the Star Wars theme, the POTC theme, and many others. I just don't think it's possible to compare the draw of a "land" or a park to the popularity of 1 ride.

We're just now planning a trip to PEI next month, where there's a whole industry built on the Anne of Green Gables books -- a national park, a historic village, several museums and many licensed products -- and the author of those books died over 50 years ago. Nobody knew it would become so popular in Japan (of all places) and many come to PEI just to have their weddings in the park. Although they did do a movie of the story, I think it is the quality of the books that has kept the franchise alive.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

We're just now planning a trip to PEI next month, where there's a whole industry built on the Anne of Green Gables books -- a national park, a historic village, several museums and many licensed products -- and the author of those books died over 50 years ago. Nobody knew it would become so popular in Japan (of all places) and many come to PEI just to have their weddings in the park. Although they did do a movie of the story, I think it is the quality of the books that has kept the franchise alive.

As Miss Scarlett would say, "I'm pea green with envy".

I LOVED the Anne books!!!

 

[Disneyglobegirl]

Here's my question to HP fan?
Will you plan an vacation to stay at US to visit 1 section of one of the two parks they have, eat there, sleep at US hotels..for a week?
then on the side visit Disney?

or will you Plan an entire vacation at Disney, go there to 4 different parks, eat there, sleep there...then on the side visit IoA for a day to see the 1 section of HP area?

Personally I think it's more likely the second.
and if it's the second option...then they will stay second to disney like they are now.

Our family are big Disney Fans ( just returned from a quick trip to WDW) and HP fans( watched the new movie in DTD) - We will definately be staying onsite at Universal once HP opens up - We may stay one or two days at a Disney resort but the majority of our stay will be with Universal. And we will probably do split stays on many future trips. I don't mind spliting our time between the two and I think that HP will be a strong attraction for years to come - the books are still very popular and there will always be kids who are new to the HP world. These books are classics and will continue to stay popular for years to come.

 

[Toad_Passenger]

Here's my question to HP fan?
Will you plan an vacation to stay at US to visit 1 section of one of the two parks they have, eat there, sleep at US hotels..for a week?
then on the side visit Disney?

or will you Plan an entire vacation at Disney, go there to 4 different parks, eat there, sleep there...then on the side visit IoA for a day to see the 1 section of HP area?

Personally I think it's more likely the second.
and if it's the second option...then they will stay second to disney like they are now.

My DW and I are HUGE HP fans. Getting the chance to immerse ourselves in the HP Universe is very exciting.

However we will NOT be sacrificing any of our WDW time in order to visit US for HP. We will be extending our stay at WDW (onsite) by 1 day and driving over to US to visit the HP part of US. So count us in as one of the second type of people you mentioned.

We love HP, but it's only 1-part of a park we have little interest in, so US will not be getting us for anything other than HP.

 

[redrosesix]

As Miss Scarlett would say, "I'm pea green with envy".

I LOVED the Anne books!!!

I'll have a raspberry cordial for you.