I too am trying to justify the difference between the price of Mod and Value resorts. I am thinking since it is her first trip and she will be young why not stay @ the value resort. She won't know the difference!
As for the meal plans.. I like to try new foods and if the food is prepaid I'd go to the more pricey places

instead quick service type meals which I do daily. I also want to do some of the dinner shows. Do I have to do all TS on Deluxe plan? How much use do you get out of the refillable mug?
PS: How do I get that cool signature section at the bottom of my posts?
She won't know the difference, and if you plan to go back (I find DW to actually be a decent value for a single parent/single child family) you're better off with a value. We have not stayed at Pop, but we do like any of the All Stars. (We also own DVC and love some of the deluxe resorts.) I prefer them because they tend to split the resort up into three busses at closing time (and we always close the parks).
As for Deluxe v. regular v. quick service v. no dining plan, all I can tell you is to study the menus. For a shorter trip, do you really want to take the time out for a sit-down meal every day? When my dd was 5, we did a couple of character meals (preferably one with princesses) and ate quick service. We do the regular DDP now because my dd, now 12, and I enjoy going to the restaurants to eat a nice meal. I have a single mom friend going with her twins soon, and she decided against any dining plan. Her kids are picky eaters and would not likely like the childrens quick service options. So she'll pay OOP for one or two adult meals. They are going for 6 days and are not planning any TS meals. Her kids aren't into characters, and they don't really want to spend the time when she's the only one that might enjoy the food.
So see what is offered at QS and TS meals, and plan from there. You can always add/deduct dining at a later point in time. As for deluxe, that's a LOT of food, and I (personally having had a 5 year old that wasn't that interested in food) would not want to have to deal with that many TS credits. Sure, you can use them for QS, but I wouldn't.
How much do you use the reflillable mug? We don't use it at all. First, we're not soda/soft drink drinkers, even though we have bought the mugs in the past. Second, you have to swing by the food court to fill them, and you don't use them in the parks. Are you driving? Your better bet would be to bring your drinks with you. You can rent a fridge at a value for $10 or $12/night if you need to. Or you can use a cooler and keep ice in it. We did that for YEARS, because my dd, when she was little, had to have her milk to sleep.
Good luck and have fun planning. That's (almost) the best part! Your daughter will be a perfect age for a magical time.