Which crowd calendar to believe?

[Keyser]

I've found 3 different sites that give crowd calendar estimates (I'll list them below - not sure if there's any reason not to give sites on this board). We're going at a particularly crowded time (4th of July week!), so I really want to make sure we pick the better parks to go to. Some days, the calendars are in agreement. Other times, they are totally opposite to each other.

For instance, on July 9, one site says that HS is the best park to visit and AK the worst. Another site says HS is the busiest park (8/10 crowd level) and AK the least busy (4/10 crowd level).

I'm wondering if you all have any experience in knowing which site to "trust"? One of them already updated their Universal crowd estimates, moving things from crowds in the 5-6 range, to crowds in the 8-10 range for every day (that's not a minor adjustment!). I don't know whether to "not trust" them since they made such a big change, or trust them more since it's clear they're actively updating their estimates.

For reference (if this is not allowed, I'll ask a moderator to delete, or I will edit it out), the sites I've looked at are:
touringplans.com,
easywdw.com, and
undercovertourist.com.

 

[CaFeeney]

Easy WDW never failed me yet

 

[strat68]

I like easywdw because Josh gives explanations for why he chooses each park. Touringplans appears to be based on historical attendance numbers and I don't know anything about the undercover tourist one.

But easywdw and touring plans agree that what's more important than the right day is to get to the park at rope drop and follow a recommended plan. The plans are fairly accurate because it's easy to figure out where the crowds go on an hour by hour basis and then apply that to plan.

 

[LisaCM614]

I've found 3 different sites that give crowd calendar estimates (I'll list them below - not sure if there's any reason not to give sites on this board). We're going at a particularly crowded time (4th of July week!), so I really want to make sure we pick the better parks to go to. Some days, the calendars are in agreement. Other times, they are totally opposite to each other.

For instance, on July 9, one site says that HS is the best park to visit and AK the worst. Another site says HS is the busiest park (8/10 crowd level) and AK the least busy (4/10 crowd level).

I'm wondering if you all have any experience in knowing which site to "trust"? One of them already updated their Universal crowd estimates, moving things from crowds in the 5-6 range, to crowds in the 8-10 range for every day (that's not a minor adjustment!). I don't know whether to "not trust" them since they made such a big change, or trust them more since it's clear they're actively updating their estimates.

For reference (if this is not allowed, I'll ask a moderator to delete, or I will edit it out), the sites I've looked at are:
touringplans.com,
easywdw.com, and
undercovertourist.com.

Here are the rules I follow after reviewing two out your three - which park fits into my plans the best? if it is an AM EMH park will I get there a half hour BEFORE AM EMH start? if not then don't go to that park, go to a park that does not have AM EMH. But mostly like @strat68 said, have a plan, follow the plan that is more important than any crowd calendar!

 

[bluezy]

We base our touring plans on the crowd calendars and cheat sheets at easywdw -- but we only use those as a guide. I read Josh's reasons for recommending/not recommending a park for a particular day and decide if those reasons apply to us and plan accordingly. We might go to a park on a non-recommended day because that's what best fits *our* schedule, but at least we know what we're getting in to and what to expect while we're there.

 

[Nancyg56]

I use the calendars as a guide, but I do not get so invested in any one that I change my plans or go to any park if that park just is not what I want for the day.

Seriously, if you are going during a busy holiday season, I don't care which one, you should figure out what is the most important strategy for your family. EMH are popular, but I think you need to get there before they start. If you cannot do that, plan a different park so you will miss those extra folks who did go. WE are early risers, but not that early so I head to a different park that day.

 

[PeasandCarrots]

I prefer easywdw.com because he details exactly why he ranked them as he did and you can make your own mind up if the points he made apply to you and your touring style.

 

[TJA]

I don't use any crowd calendars. As a general rule, I do try to avoid the parks with EMH's.

As long as we have our FP's, then we don't really care about the crowds. We make our 3 favorite FP's and then grab more FP's as the day goes on. If it's too crowded for us, then we just leave that park.

As far as the 4th of July week, we have gone to WDW that week for the past several years (LOVE it!). My main advice is to skip MK on July 4. I'm not one to complain about crowds very often, but being at MK on the 4th (especially late afternoon/early evening) is NOT for me . We usually stay at Poly and watch the awesome MK fireworks show right from there.

 

[monkyby87]

A good plan and understanding of the parks will trump any crowd calendar in my opinion. I've never used a crowd calendar. For busy times, like 4th of July, you just need to plan well what you want to do and when you want to do it.

 

[Micca]

I only know about easywdw, but I hear good things about TP. The guy at easy spends a LOT of time in the parks. If you read his blog, he often follows up on his predictions, sort of like your local weather forecaster when they explain how close they got to their prediction "after the fact." In fact, you could say crowd predictions are a lot like weather forecasts, they do the best they can, but sometimes they miss it completely

 

[GovieMom]

To be honest, whichever park you do end up going to during 4th of July week will seem like you're at the most crowded park of the day. The parks will be that jammed.

 

[notrub98]

TP is wrong most of the time.

EasyWDW is the way to go.

Regardless, I hate to say it, but you are going to be at a 9-10 that week no matter which one you follow. I've been that week. It is.... very crowded. But avoid EMH and that helps, take a midday break.

 

[redsbe]

I think crowd calendars can help guide decisions which days of the year to visit and which parks are best on a given day of you are looking to maximize your park time and experience as much as possible with the lowest possible lines and crowds. You can easy visit any WDW park any day of the year and use FP+ and RD to get plenty done in the first few hours, but then if experiencing high crowds the rest of your day will be plagued by the number of people, making parades hard to experience, little selection for 4+ FP+, lines for food, waits for transportation, shows full etc..... If you are happy with and willing to experience a short time and less of a park crowd calenders are less of a need - if you know now how to take full advantage of EMHs, RD and FP+.

 

[Keyser]

Thanks for all the replies!

We're WDW vets, but we've been doing other things for several years (e.g. we've never used the Fastpass + system). And, all but 1 of our previous trips were at low-attendance times of year, so this'll be a new experience for us. It sounds like EasyWDW (which seems to have a philosophy similar to the old TourGuideMike one) is probably the one to rely on. Especially since touringplans already updated their crowd calendars. I really do find their current estimates unbelievably low: they show a "10" on the 4th, but it drops down to 6s and a 5 on the following weekend.

We are definitely in the "avoid the EMH park" group. And, we'll actually be at Universal on the 4th (moving to Disney on the 6th), which I know will be horrible, but at least having the front-of-the-line pass from staying on site there should mitigate the pain a bit. My worry is how to plan the Wed-Sun portion of our trip at Disney. We don't have our dinner reservations yet (and I realized a bit late that we passed the 180 day mark, so we might be in trouble...), and I'm trying to figure out which park we should aim for on which day.

Again, thanks for the feedback.

 

[Micca]

With respect to ADRs, get something even if it's not your first choice. Something may open up before your trip, if not you'll at least have a place for a meal.

 

[disneyfan123]

We've always used TP and it's worked well for us, but as others have said, it's more important to have a plan and stick to it. We went during March break a few years ago, and it was pretty busy (8-9/10), however, we had our plan and got everything we wanted done with minimal waiting.