Where to find what contracts have actually sold for?

[justme0729]

Where do I find how much BLT contracts have actually sold for lately? I made an offer for $120/ point and I am wondering if that is considered too low.

 

[striker1064]

It almost doesn't matter what they've sold for recently. The only thing that matters is if the seller accepts your offer. $120 is a little lower than what I've seen for BLT but it doesn't seem unreasonable, but if they don't accept it you'll know.

The ROFR threads are a good resource as well but are obviously only self-reported by people on this board.

 

[justme0729]

It almost doesn't matter what they've sold for recently. The only thing that matters is if the seller accepts your offer. $120 is a little lower than what I've seen for BLT but it doesn't seem unreasonable, but if they don't accept it you'll know.

The ROFR threads are a good resource as well but are obviously only self-reported by people on this board.

Thanks! I just feel like I’m offering what I’m willing to pay but want to make sure what I’m willing to pay isn’t too unreasonable.

 

[Bing Showei]

Thanks! I just feel like I’m offering what I’m willing to pay but want to make sure what I’m willing to pay isn’t too unreasonable.

One way to gauge the market is to look at what is being asked. Average ask for BLT right now is in the $140s based on most sites I normally visit. Fidelity Resales (https://www.fidelityresales.com/resort/disneys-bay-lake-tower-contemporary) is a pretty good indicator of the low end of the market. That's not to say you can't negotiate lower prices depending on the seller, but if average asking is $140 and you're offering $120, that's a pretty big negotiating gap.

Those Fidelity contracts normally don't sit around for very long and will often be unavailable if you make a below-asking offer - as in someone has already put in an offer at asking price. So those ask prices are pretty good indicators of "sold" prices or at least close to it.

But stick to what you feel is fair value. What you perceive to be fair value will naturally adjust if you repeatedly fail to get accepted offers/counteroffers and you assess that it's worth it to continue to pursue upward.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I agree with @Bing Showei re: Fidelity. I've heard they get a lot of the sellers that are having financial issues (very motivated) so the ask is usually low end.

As far as the ROFR thread, its a small snapshot of what's sold. Also, I'm sure some of those who paid a high-ish price may chose to not even post! Who wants to advertise their less than stellar deal? lol Unfortunately, then it makes it look like everyone's getting a great deal and it's not likely true. Also, we like to believe DIS-boarders are the most "in the know" so maybe they really are all the best deals to be found!

$120 seems low to me, too. Unless it's a huge amount of points? I'd be worried about ROFR even if the seller accepts.

How fast do you want it? How much are you willing to spend? To me, those are your key questions! Get the best deal for you.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

You can see all transactions on the Orange County Comptrollers Site. You can see the purchase price and calculate cost per point, but you cannot tell if a contract is loaded or stripped. Still you can see the general range of what is happening in the market, which tends to be a lot lower than the asking prices on brokers websites.

There are threads which explain how to do this. For example, read through this thread. https://www.disboards.com/threads/how-can-disney-sell-taken-contracts.3500200/

 

[Bing Showei]

You can see all transactions on the Orange County Comptrollers Site. You can see the purchase price and calculate cost per point, but you cannot tell if a contract is loaded or stripped. Still you can see the general range of what is happening in the market, which tends to be a lot lower than the asking prices on brokers websites.

There are threads which explain how to do this. For example, read through this thread. https://www.disboards.com/threads/how-can-disney-sell-taken-contracts.3500200/

The challenge with this approach (which should certainly be another data point to consider), is that how Disney exercises or waives ROFR on contracts can be a challenge to navigate.

Deeds will occasionally be auctioned via the non-judicial Trustee Foreclosure process, for example. When this happens, the contracts do not go through the same market-established assessments for value, but rather the highest bidder simply needs to surpass the point that Disney has set as the highest threshold to bid. Contracts like these can skew the data points.

@wdrl has a great article on this process and is worth a read.

While I was building a spreadsheet of VGF contract values, I ran into several price points that were complete outliers that were the result of auctions by professional DVC Auctioners (is that a thing?) like Bradley Shaffer. Additionally, there were warranty deeds that were processed to transfer two separate deeds which resulted (by the usual calculations based on deed doc tax) in a VGF contract that appeared to sell for $304/pt. I thought the deed was a time traveler from 2021.

 

[Jelly563]

One way to gauge the market is to look at what is being asked. Average ask for BLT right now is in the $140s based on most sites I normally visit.

I recently saw on ROFR a wonderful contract at Poly sell for $130. I find it hard to believe that BLT is in the $140's when you can get Poly for $130. Is it just me ??

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I recently saw on ROFR a wonderful contract at Poly sell for $130. I find it hard to believe that BLT is in the $140's when you can get Poly for $130. Is it just me ??

If one wants something larger than a studio then BLT is the most cost effective resort on a monorail. Plus you can walk to MK from there. Even if one wants a studio the point requirements for most studios at BLT are lower than PVB plus dues are lower at BLT.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I recently saw on ROFR a wonderful contract at Poly sell for $130. I find it hard to believe that BLT is in the $140's when you can get Poly for $130. Is it just me ??

It is 1 contract out of 7 listed on the current thread. At a glance, it looks to me like most are selling similarly priced to BLT.

There are always outliers.

Seller (and buyer) motivation / circumstances play a big role in resale. What is a likely reason anyone is selling their PVB contract already?

Prior to the Jan price increases, PVB had a direct selling price lower than BLT. Anybody selling right now paid less for PVB than what they could have bought BLT for.

 

[Jelly563]

Valid points... I just felt that Poly has always been the #2 "fancy" hotel behind the flagship resort VGF. I feel like BLT is a resort in the back corner of the contemp (sharing many amenities). I guess the lower point cost is also key. I would love to know if people had the choice, on a free trip would they pick Poly or BLT ????

 

[Matty B13]

I think a big part of the decision is the size of your family, we are a family of 5 and also want to bring a set of grandparents, so a 2 bedroom is a must. Much to my dismay DVC decided to only go with studios at the Poly, the bungalows don’t count as a viable option in my opinion, so we ended up buying VGF resale. We would have bought direct at the Poly if they had more options. It’s going to get interesting when all the new Poly owners start looking for bigger unit options at the 7 month mark.

 

[supersnoop]

Valid points... I just felt that Poly has always been the #2 "fancy" hotel behind the flagship resort VGF. I feel like BLT is a resort in the back corner of the contemp (sharing many amenities). I guess the lower point cost is also key. I would love to know if people had the choice, on a free trip would they pick Poly or BLT ????

I’d pick BLT almost every time. I see the two as a similar level, but for different reasons. In fact, I think VGF is on that same level. They’re all the same quality, similar amenities, but different themes. I enjoy all three themes equally, but the walking path to Magic Kingdom puts BLT at the top of my list.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Valid points... I just felt that Poly has always been the #2 "fancy" hotel behind the flagship resort VGF. I feel like BLT is a resort in the back corner of the contemp (sharing many amenities). I guess the lower point cost is also key. I would love to know if people had the choice, on a free trip would they pick Poly or BLT ????

Well, my DH doesn't really like the feel of either of them. But on our next trip, we are going to spend a bit of time at both (because I'd kind of like our next purchase to be a MK resort) and I'll get back to you on that. LOL

I probably prefer the theming at Poly, but I really like the "walk to park" concept. (My home resort is BWV - walk to 2 parks!) Honestly, I really liked my Feb stay at SSR but mostly because we were in Congress Park and had a quick walk to DTD. Plus I like outside entrances (always liked the moderates) when it comes to Disney. So, opinions will vary!

 

[TexasChick123]

Where do I find how much BLT contracts have actually sold for lately? I made an offer for $120/ point and I am wondering if that is considered too low.

$120pp is low unless the contract is huge, and that coming from someone who prides herself on lowball offers. Also, $120pp usually means a significantly stripped contract. If you value a point at $15 because of the rental potential (which is on the lower end for BLT rentals) then you paying $135pp for a contract with full points is more or less the same as paying $120pp for a stripped contract. Other factors are at play, but that’s the long and short of it. Think of it this way, you could rent out the 200 points, for example, for $3000 total which knocks $3000 off the purchase price thereby making it the equivalent of $120pp. This ignores MF’s which are a factor, but it makes the numbers much closer than they appear at first glance. This also assumes that you would rent out some points which is a big assumption. Also, smaller contracts command more per point.

FWIW, Disney has been snatching them up lately if they’re under $125pp according to numerous brokers.

IMO, $130-$135pp is the going rate right now for a somewhat stripped BLT contract. If you have full points coming/already there sellers are getting closer to $135 or more for anything 150 points or higher. 100 points or lower go for slightly more to largely more depending on the amount of points and how loaded they are. Good luck!

 

[Jerry5788]

$120pp is low unless the contract is huge, and that coming from someone who prides herself on lowball offers. Also, $120pp usually means a significantly stripped contract. If you value a point at $15 because of the rental potential (which is on the lower end for BLT rentals) then you paying $135pp for a contract with full points is more or less the same as paying $120pp for a stripped contract. Other factors are at play, but that’s the long and short of it. Think of it this way, you could rent out the 200 points, for example, for $3000 total which knocks $3000 off the purchase price thereby making it the equivalent of $120pp. This ignores MF’s which are a factor, but it makes the numbers much closer than they appear at first glance. This also assumes that you would rent out some points which is a big assumption. Also, smaller contracts command more per point.

FWIW, Disney has been snatching them up lately if they’re under $125pp according to numerous brokers.

IMO, $130-$135pp is the going rate right now for a somewhat stripped BLT contract. If you have full points coming/already there sellers are getting closer to $135 or more for anything 150 points or higher. 100 points or lower go for slightly more to largely more depending on the amount of points and how loaded they are. Good luck!

I have seen two fidelity contracts at BLT non stripped in last week at $122 and $118. The $118 160 was this Friday and I spoke to agent and they were writing up contract then (got multiple offers obvi).

Don’t think it passes ROFR though

 

[TexasChick123]

I have seen two fidelity contracts at BLT non stripped in last week at $122 and $118. The $118 160 was this Friday and I spoke to agent and they were writing up contract then (got multiple offers obvi).

Don’t think it passes ROFR though

I saw that contract! It is such a good deal, but that’s the annoying thing, ROFR. I don’t think it will pass either, but I do hope it does for whomever bought it!!! That’s an awesome deal in this market. That being said, those are outliers and not the norm right now. You can always find deals (see what I have been finding), but Disney usually takes them if they’re great deals. It’s like “Thanks for finding this deal for us. Excuse us while we swoop in and steal it, and you just wasted your time and will not be compensated for your work on it.”

 

[Jerry5788]

I saw that contract! It is such a good deal, but that’s the annoying thing, ROFR. I don’t think it will pass either, but I do hope it does for whomever bought it!!! That’s an awesome deal in this market. That being said, those are outliers and not the norm right now. You can always find deals (see what I have been finding), but Disney usually takes them if they’re great deals. It’s like “Thanks for finding this deal for us. Excuse us while we swoop in and steal it, and you just wasted your time and will not be compensated for your work on it.”

Ha I didn’t get it I offered ask but someone beat me to it. I would have offered a few more higher than ask if I knew my SSR was taken

 

[bumbershoot]

Valid points... I just felt that Poly has always been the #2 "fancy" hotel behind the flagship resort VGF. I feel like BLT is a resort in the back corner of the contemp (sharing many amenities). I guess the lower point cost is also key. I would love to know if people had the choice, on a free trip would they pick Poly or BLT ????

For a free trip I’m not staying in a studio, and I refuse to take a “once in a lifetime” trip, so the bungalows are out. So that means bay lake 1 or 2 bedroom.

Bay lake has value when you want in between smallest and biggest units.

And I don’t feel that it’s behind anything. It’s close to contemporary and MK. Those are nice places to be close to

 

[TexasChick123]

For a free trip I’m not staying in a studio, and I refuse to take a “once in a lifetime” trip, so the bungalows are out. So that means bay lake 1 or 2 bedroom.

Bay lake has value when you want in between smallest and biggest units.

And I don’t feel that it’s behind anything. It’s close to contemporary and MK. Those are nice places to be close to

Full confession: I do not love the decor at BLT, and I am an owner there. However, you know the first rule about real estate: Location, Location, Location. Poly also does not appeal to us because we typically stay in a 2-bedroom villa which isn't available there. I also don't consider a bungalow a realistic option. When we are in a pinch though, we can stay in a 1-bedroom as a family of 4 (also not an option at Poly). That's why we own BLT and VGF. Shoot, we bought VGF for $130pp just last year! Because I have only be around these boards for about 3 years, these prices seem crazy to me, but I am sure that those who have been around longer just see it as a normal increase. What do you want to bet that in 5 years, everyone will be talking about how anything under $200pp would be so nice because everything in resale has surpassed that threshold?!?